UK votes to leave EU, Scotland votes to leave UK

[mrswdk]

Reminds me of those Matryoshka dolls:



How many tiny fragments will the EU have been split into by 2050? More or less than 100?

[tzor]

It's complex because prior to Brexit, they voted to remain in the UK. While they did vote to stay in the EU, I think the financial ties to England are stronger than the ones to the European Mainland. Even if they get the referendum, it would be a squeaker of a vote.

(And besides once the reports of the US/UK great Haggis trade treaty reaches their ears they will be really supporting the UK. I'm telling you the Haggis market in the US is going to be YUGE! Assuming I can convince all those stupid "Irish Americans" who run around in Scots Kilts and play Scots Bagpipes that it's OK and assuming that the Scots won't be too offended at people eating Haggis with Jameson.)

[Ray Rider]

It's complex because prior to Brexit, they voted to remain in the UK. While they did vote to stay in the EU, I think the financial ties to England are stronger than the ones to the European Mainland. Even if they get the referendum, it would be a squeaker of a vote.

Exactly. I think Scotland will rethink things once they see how strong the UK is outside the EU and how the EU is gradually disintegrating economically.

[tzor]

Exactly. I think Scotland will rethink things once they see how strong the UK is outside the EU and how the EU is gradually disintegrating economically.

I'm not an expert on Scots politics but there were a lot of complex issues that were involved that resulted in the independence vote being shot down. While the allure of trade is clearly a reason why most didn't favor Brexit, the linkage to the Pound has financial implications that were a major factor back in the 2014 vote. With the UK our of the EU, the only viable option would be adopting the Euro and that's not a very popular option.

[Thorthoth]

Tibet... Taiwan... HongKong... Macao... Manchuria...
How many nations would China split into if it wasn't run by brutal draconian quasi-Commie fascists?

[mrswdk]

Tibet... Taiwan... HongKong... Macao... Manchuria...
How many nations would China split into if it wasn't run by brutal draconian quasi-Commie fascists?

You are right, perhaps China ought to adopt the Western model and simply crumble immediately every time 5 or more people express any sort of discontent.

It worked for Russia in 1989, it's working for the EU in 2017, and God willing it'll work for the People's Republic too.

[2dimes]

What are your thoughts on Alba going back to being a country?

Could they afford to do it. I presume the Scottish pound would drop pretty good, it is equal right now it just has different picture correct?

It's a bit different from somewhere like Hong Kong, because there's just a stubby rock fence physically separating them right now and potentially you would need a border. I think it's a great romantic notion that they could seperate but pretty impractical.

Kind of like Quebec, they hate the English speaking parts of Canada for taking over. They can't afford to operate without it though, so they are basically stuck.

[mrswdk]

Could they afford to do it. I presume the Scottish pound would drop pretty good, it is equal right now it just has different picture correct?

Scotland - like most regions of the UK - receives more in tax from the UK government than it pays in, so overall Scotland would immediately lose money by leaving the UK.

There is no currency called the Scottish Pound. Everyone in the UK uses British Pounds, just sometimes the pounds printed in Scotland or Northern Ireland have different designs on them.

It's a bit different from somewhere like Hong Kong, because there's just a stubby rock fence physically separating them right now and potentially you would need a border. I think it's a great romantic notion that they could seperate but pretty impractical.

Also if there was another vote in independence now all the evidence suggests Scotland would vote against independence anyway.

[Dukasaur]

What are your thoughts on Alba going back to being a country?

Could they afford to do it. I presume the Scottish pound would drop pretty good, it is equal right now it just has different picture correct?

It's a bit different from somewhere like Hong Kong, because there's just a stubby rock fence physically separating them right now and potentially you would need a border. I think it's a great romantic notion that they could seperate but pretty impractical.

Kind of like Quebec, they hate the English speaking parts of Canada for taking over. They can't afford to operate without it though, so they are basically stuck.

As a thought experiment, ask yourself some question about how this would work in reverse.

Do you think Malta would be wealthier if it was gobbled up by Italy?

Do you think it would benefit the people of Uruguay to be absorbed into Brazil?

Do you think Latvia would have a higher standard of living if it was reconquered by Russia?


Once you work through a few of those, ask yourself: If being absorbed into a larger political unit doesn't make you richer, why would breaking up into smaller political units make you poorer?

Yes, there would be transitional pains, some short-term losses. In the long run, it would make little difference.

[mookiemcgee]

Could they afford to do it. I presume the Scottish pound would drop pretty good, it is equal right now it just has different picture correct?

Scotland - like most regions of the UK - receives more in tax from the UK government than it pays in, so overall Scotland would immediately lose money by leaving the UK.

There is no currency called the Scottish Pound. Everyone in the UK uses British Pounds, just sometimes the pounds printed in Scotland or Northern Ireland have different designs on them.

It's a bit different from somewhere like Hong Kong, because there's just a stubby rock fence physically separating them right now and potentially you would need a border. I think it's a great romantic notion that they could seperate but pretty impractical.

Also if there was another vote in independence now all the evidence suggests Scotland would vote against independence anyway.

All the evidence said brexit wouldn't happen, and Hillary would be president... not taking a said, just saying.

[mrswdk]

Hillary won the popular vote by several percentage points so the polls were technically correct.

[2dimes]

So you think Quebec would be just as strong economically if they separated and became a country Duke?

I think as the OP points out Scotland gets similar transfer payments. They would need a currency if they left and that alone would be pretty expensive if they did not start using Euros or something. If they were using Euros and economically seperate that would be completely different.

[Dukasaur]

So you think Quebec would be just as strong economically if they separated and became a country Duke?

I think they would end up with the same standard of living, let's put it that way. They might have less of some arbitrary measure of wealth, but the basics of putting meat on the table, etc., would not change much.

I think as the OP points out Scotland gets similar transfer payments. They would need a currency if they left and that alone would be pretty expensive if they did not start using Euros or something. If they were using Euros and economically seperate that would be completely different.

Having a currency doesn't cost much. It did, when currency meant gold or silver, but in the days of unbacked paper money all you have to do is say "this piece of toilet paper is legal tender" and that's that. Of course there's some short term pain and some extra hassles while you switch over, but in the end it doesn't mean much.

Transfer payments are mainly government-to-government. Yes, Scotland is a net beneficiary of national taxes there, just as Quebec is here, but you have to keep your eye on the ball. When the federal government transfers money to the provincial government, not much changes for the people. Yes, they may benefit from some of that money, but it's almost always for things of limited marginal utility. Rarely do those payments have much to do with putting meat on the table or gas in the car. If the feds didn't give Quebec any money, the bridges over the St. Lawrence might get a little more rusty instead of getting nice facelifts. People would bitch and moan about the rusty bridges, but at the end of the day they really wouldn't have any less poutine in their bowl.

[2dimes]

Stop trolling me Duke. You can't make currency with a frickin sharpie unless you want counterfeiters.

You're right they will probably have better pork products than Alberta and the poutine will continue, but do you actually not have stupid trinkets, like an over priced smart phone which would suddenly be several time more expensive there.

The bridges will get the same facelift, but they will be toll bridges to finance their up keep.

They will need customs and duty to keep everyone from driving to other provinces with a lower sales tax to buy smartphones if the exchange rate doesn't prevent it.

We still enjoy going to the US to shop but need to keep a closer eye on prices because after the exchange rate a pair of white pants is no longer cheaper every time.