[OFFICIAL] Charle's Fun Mafia - "Game On" Day 4

[Loose Canon]

Mathematically incorrect odds if you are the 5% town extreme.

In that scenario total should add to 200% for you with no one over 100%

Just saying

[chanakam2020]

Vote Count:

Ragian (3) - Ragian, Sonic, Devon
Sonic (2) - Devante, EW
King (1) - Max
EW (1) - Loose

11 Alive - 6 Needed for Lynch

Did Ragian Self vote him ?

[Loose Canon]

Yes, I hate that. It's been done before, getting a bit tired now, and doesn't make a point, at least not one that shouldn't be attempted to be made better.

[hjelp]

It doesn't matter unless we can agree upon one player to lynch before the end of D2.

[halrob64]

I think anyone pushing me as mafia has to have an agenda. No one has contradicted me and come forward as an alternative town cop, I have not done anything so far that says I am not an honest cop.
What I do see as Ragian voting for himself so if the vote gets near lynching he can unvote and throw a cog in the works.
It also identifies people who are against him so if he survives then those individuals could become targets.
Unless I see something different I will not be voting for Sonic to be lynched.

[Loose Canon]

Why not extreme, as I've explained the evidence on him is stronger than a cop report that says guilty in other games?

As I've also explained your cop claim, could easily be fake and part of extreme s cunning plan.

2 of you extreme sonic and rag are mafia.

Evidence is past the normal lynching threshold for extreme (just different).

Why not extreme?

[halrob64]

Well as I said Loose, no one has countered that claim, but keep banging the drum, extremes cunning plan? You think?

[chanakam2020]

1 Lynch extreme now - he is guilty.

2 One of Halrob sonic and rag is guilty too.
Make best assessment of that after night 2 results.
I actually think the most likely second guilty is Halrob but I don't know that.
I also see - maybe it's just me - accelerated development in Halrob s play in this game. Such acceleration would I think naturally occur best playing mafia with a mafia extreme.


3. Try to keep both claimed town protectives alive as best we can for now. I think they may be both bona fide town protectives and so will slow down the dual threats of mafia and sk

4. You and me Chana, try to subtly evaluate who is more likely of the others to also be vanilla town.
I think you have nodded to me and I have to you.
We can be subtle about this.
Could narrow down the search for third mafia and sk considerably.

Sound a good plan to me.
But I have to read the thing again and think about possible plot twisters before voting.
Give me some time to think.

Ok, I think this plan sound good.
I am still open for better plans if some one can come up with a better plan and better logic.
I had my own doubt on EW from D-1

Vote Extreme Ways

[Loose Canon]

Well as I said Loose, no one has countered that claim, but keep banging the drum, extremes cunning plan? You think?

It doesn't have to be countered yet to be false.
Easiest possibility for it being false is cop but mafia sided, and some guesswork from other mafia roles that town cop is unlikely, or even if not trades you on verge of being lynched for reveal of town cop.
And there may even be a town cop out there sitting silent currently which would put you and 2 of extreme sonic and rag as mafia.

So yes that's why I put you at 40% mafia with extreme at 95%

And actually your keep banging the drum bit would be mafia indicative

[Kingm]

Broken record checking inn again.
Just skimmed through the last 10 pages of discussion, and my conclusion is that I'm just very very confused, I somehow think all the active players are both town and scum at the same time....
Still hoping to "wake up" again soon..

[Loose Canon]

I'm not confused I'm very clear and am very frustrated that others are confused.

I'll self impose a 12hour moratorium on myself from posting.

[Ragian]

Compare my play to Ragians and the difference should speak for itself.

Exactly. Son!c has done fudge all but playing the odds. It speaks for itself.

Call my socalled bluff, people. It's very easy. I'm even helping you. Just kill off Son!c D3. It's very simple.

[Ragian]

Yes, I hate that. It's been done before, getting a bit tired now, and doesn't make a point, at least not one that shouldn't be attempted to be made better.

Well, no one listens. Apart from maybe EW right now, but I don't know if that's something to do with my pockets... I can't make you vote off Son!c D2 because...yeah well...to be honest I don't understand why. However, I can make you vote him off D3 when I flip town doc and you finally realise that of course there is no way this tiny game has three protective roles.

[chanakam2020]

Vote Count:

Ragian (3) - Ragian, Sonic, Devon
Sonic (2) - Devante, EW
King (1) - Max
EW (1) - Loose

11 Alive - 6 Needed for Lynch

Ragian, Can you explain the logic of self voting you ?

[halrob64]

your another broken record Loose but I do think you are revealing yourself as mafia. Just to get through your brain fog, I will say again....I was on the verge of being lynched and felt I had no choice to reveal my role. That was not something I wanted to do but hey, here I am still in the game for doing so.
If you are town...which I doubt, then you should be looking for an ally in the town cop, you certainly don't have one now.

[Charle]

Vote Count:

Ragian (3) - Ragian, Sonic, Devon
Sonic (2) - Devante, EW
EW (2) - Loose, Chanakam
King (1) - Max

11 Alive - 6 Needed for a Lynch

[Ragian]

Vote Count:

Ragian (3) - Ragian, Sonic, Devon
Sonic (2) - Devante, EW
King (1) - Max
EW (1) - Loose

11 Alive - 6 Needed for Lynch

Ragian, Can you explain the logic of self voting you ?

I'm quite sure I've done that a few times, but I'll break it down for you.
1) I'm town doc, a protective role, and daring died as the jailkeeper, a protective role. No way, this game has more protective town roles.
2) Son!c was caught visiting halrob and has been stating, without really stating, that he visited in a protective capacity.
3) Either Son!c is or I am lying. I'm voting myself to get lynched, so you can see that I'm town doc and go forward by lynching Son!c D3. I even dared Son!c to do the same in order to let town decide, but he won't do that.

So, lynch me, see that I'm town doc, and then lynch scum son!c D3. It's a decent trade for town. I'll still win with town.

FP'ed by the mod

[Loose Canon]

Yes, I hate that. It's been done before, getting a bit tired now, and doesn't make a point, at least not one that shouldn't be attempted to be made better.

Well, no one listens. Apart from maybe EW right now, but I don't know if that's something to do with my pockets... I can't make you vote off Son!c D2 because...yeah well...to be honest I don't understand why. However, I can make you vote him off D3 when I flip town doc and you finally realise that of course there is no way this tiny game has three protective roles.

Ragian the above is a good post, and I can read it as coming from the heart, but if it doesn't it is an especially good post.

My response is underlying it it is looking at the problem the wrong way;

We have lost a jail keeper which is a part protective part investigative role.
We have 4 players claiming town powers, 2 are investigative 2 are protective.
Of those 4, 2 of them are not townies.
You say we should listen to what you are saying and that you are town and sonic is therefore not and the evidence of that is the relative posts made by you and sonic. I have half an ear on that, but only half because whatever each of you say that is assessing the relative guilt of you and sonic.
If you instead consider the relative guilt of extreme and Halrob - which they are not arguing out interestingly - extreme has passed a 90% threshold for guilt - he knew too much throwing you into the mix 100% guilty, discounted by his it was just by chance if you buy that at all.
If you don't think extreme is guilty then you have to think Halrob is.

Of course what only seems to being lightly considered by most players including you is the possibility that of the 4 of rag, sonic, extreme, Halrob when flip occurs it is rag and sonic both town, and extreme and Halrob both mafia.

Whichever way you currently cut the relative probabilities of rag, sonic and Halrob being mafia, none can match or exceed the 90%+ probability that extreme is mafia.
That probability will remain whether we correctly or incorrectly lynch rag or sonic.

So that rag is why I only have half an ear on the relative guilt of you and sonic.
It is also why others should just only have half an ear on that too.
It is a question for d3.

Extreme is 90%+ guilty so day 2 today must be lynched

And rags I have read your later post.
Your presumption is it's either you or sonic, that's guilty, and your argument from that is it's not me.
I make no such presumption, that's why I put Halrob at 40% and extreme at 90%+
It's interesting in the leastis it not that Halrob is not making the same it's either extreme or me that's guilty argument?

[chanakam2020]

Vote Count:

Ragian (3) - Ragian, Sonic, Devon
Sonic (2) - Devante, EW
King (1) - Max
EW (1) - Loose

11 Alive - 6 Needed for Lynch

Ragian, Can you explain the logic of self voting you ?

I'm quite sure I've done that a few times, but I'll break it down for you.
1) I'm town doc, a protective role, and daring died as the jailkeeper, a protective role. No way, this game has more protective town roles.
2) Son!c was caught visiting halrob and has been stating, without really stating, that he visited in a protective capacity.
3) Either Son!c is or I am lying. I'm voting myself to get lynched, so you can see that I'm town doc and go forward by lynching Son!c D3. I even dared Son!c to do the same in order to let town decide, but he won't do that.

So, lynch me, see that I'm town doc, and then lynch scum son!c D3. It's a decent trade for town. I'll still win with town.

FP'ed by the mod

Can you explain how your plan work better than Loose Cannons proposed plan.
Why do not we spare both protective role claimer today and let Cop investigate.
And we can decide based on better information at D3.
Can you explain how your plan work better.
.
If you convince me with better explanation of how your logic work better than Loose Canons proposed plan then you will earn my vote.

[Loose Canon]

And that Chana, Rag, is a reasonable proposition reasonably put if ever I've heard one.

And remember I was already saying there had been vanilla town nods from Chana I've picked up on , as fellow VT.
Chanas post should provide further supporting evidence of this.

But most of all reasonable proposition.

[Extreme Ways]

Just stupid to think our cop will flip scum.

Its deep into D2. No counterclaim while we have protection..

So Halrob is our cop. To think anything else is dumb if you wanna win at this stage. Yes you never know 100% but you just need to take a stand in what you believe and i can't believe there would be no cop in play. So 1+1 that tells me Halrob says the truth. Otherwise he would have been counterclaimed.

Do you consider my claim a soft counterclaim?

Because I know I am town, and that makes Halrob being not-town a lot likelier.

@Loose my ratios of who is scum are independent of one another, I am not aiming to get to get to some total.

[Extreme Ways]

Vote Count:

Ragian (3) - Ragian, Sonic, Devon
Sonic (2) - Devante, EW
King (1) - Max
EW (1) - Loose

11 Alive - 6 Needed for Lynch

Ragian, Can you explain the logic of self voting you ?

I'm quite sure I've done that a few times, but I'll break it down for you.
1) I'm town doc, a protective role, and daring died as the jailkeeper, a protective role. No way, this game has more protective town roles.
2) Son!c was caught visiting halrob and has been stating, without really stating, that he visited in a protective capacity.
3) Either Son!c is or I am lying. I'm voting myself to get lynched, so you can see that I'm town doc and go forward by lynching Son!c D3. I even dared Son!c to do the same in order to let town decide, but he won't do that.

So, lynch me, see that I'm town doc, and then lynch scum son!c D3. It's a decent trade for town. I'll still win with town.

FP'ed by the mod

Can you explain how your plan work better than Loose Cannons proposed plan.
Why do not we spare both protective role claimer today and let Cop investigate.
And we can decide based on better information at D3.
Can you explain how your plan work better.
.
If you convince me with better explanation of how your logic work better than Loose Canons proposed plan then you will earn my vote.

So instead you choose to lynch an investigative claim???

This reason is exactly why I argued for a long time to lynch outside of claims, but I was ignored. Mafia will want to kill the claims.

@Loose, "2 out of 4 of the claims are scum" is an assumption, not a given. What will you do once I flip town, argue that we have just a jailkeeper and a cop and that Ragian and Sonic are both scum, or argue that we have no investigators at all?

[Extreme Ways]

Vote Count:

Ragian (3) - Ragian, Sonic, Devon
Sonic (2) - Devante, EW
King (1) - Max
EW (1) - Loose

11 Alive - 6 Needed for Lynch

Ragian, Can you explain the logic of self voting you ?

I'm quite sure I've done that a few times, but I'll break it down for you.
1) I'm town doc, a protective role, and daring died as the jailkeeper, a protective role. No way, this game has more protective town roles.
2) Son!c was caught visiting halrob and has been stating, without really stating, that he visited in a protective capacity.
3) Either Son!c is or I am lying. I'm voting myself to get lynched, so you can see that I'm town doc and go forward by lynching Son!c D3. I even dared Son!c to do the same in order to let town decide, but he won't do that.

So, lynch me, see that I'm town doc, and then lynch scum son!c D3. It's a decent trade for town. I'll still win with town.

FP'ed by the mod

I fully agree with this except point 3. I am willing to die if we lynch Sonic next, because Loose will not come around on me and town needs his active voice to consider new perspectives.

You can also just vote sonic and then you have the same outcome of both self-voting in terms of voting power.

Also I wasn't on board with you town until sonic showed his true colours and turned around despite no new evidence being presented, whilst being the one to town me the most before that. And for everyone else who he is trying to manipulate.

My legacy will be that loose remains town, hjelp is town, and rag is town. Always lynch Sonic next. Don't town-bin Halrob if he overstays his welcome. Chana probably town.

[Extreme Ways]

At this point I prefer my 100 dollars or whatever currency to go towards
Amnesty International or Doctors Without Borders.

[halrob64]

Actually EW you were claiming that you had an investigative role alongside me being town cop a while back, that was when you followed Sonic or was it Ragian who visited me.
Now you are going down the road of oh by the way I am claiming to be the town cop so it cannot be hal.
Nice move but I think all intelligent people will see through that one