Is the Bitcoin bull run starting?

[HitRed]

Russians flee to Bitcoin

[HitRed]

Russians flee to Bitcoin.

[mookiemcgee]

Russians flee to Bitcoin.

It's no accident Putin declared crypto as 'analog of currency' less than 48 hours before invading. I'm confident he had calculated some of the west reactions both in sanctions (his gov't/oligarch buisnesses may want to use it), and the devaluation of his currency (his citizens might need to use it).

There was a meme going around in crypto circles last week... 'Buy the invasion'. Prices tanked in the leadup and in news of the actual invasion, and historically there is a post invasion rally (both in traditional equities and crypto)

[saxitoxin]

I have like $10 worth of Fetch.AI tokens (I think I got as a promotion or something). I just saw it was eclipsing even the BTC jump. I was like "WTF is Fetch.AI?" So I googled it and saw ...

FET is an Ethereum token that powers Fetch.ai, a decentralized machine learning platform for applications such as asset trading, gig economy work, and energy grid optimization.

Makes sense.

[mookiemcgee]

Bulls seem back in full force on BTC. hard to say if this is a short term pump on the news of the LUNA folks buying 2.2 billion worth (they have bought 1billion of the 2.2 so far) with a big correction coming in a month or so... or just the start of the next big many months long surge

"LFG intends to buy $ 3 billion of BTC. Of that, $ 2.2 billion has already been raised through $ 1 billion of outside funding and $ 1.2 billion of USDT which was purchased with UST that LFG already had (the remaining $ 800 million is coming). Kwon added on Twitter that the BTC reserve could grow to $ 10 billion by using a “portion of the seigniorage” through normal operation of the Terra protocol to buy BTC. Seigniorage is a big word for the excess value of newly minted currency over the cost of producing it. In government terms, US quarters have less than $ 0.25 of metal in them; in UST terms, the cost of production is nearly zero so a portion of seigniorage profits are burned and the other portion goes to the treasury."

[HitRed]

Market Update

Everything is down. Stocks, gold, silver and Bitcoin. Economy headed for a downturn? I think so.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/09/investin ... index.html

[mookiemcgee]

Market Update

Everything is down. Stocks, gold, silver and Bitcoin. Economy headed for a downturn? I think so.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/09/investin ... index.html

Hard to argue with the idea we are in a downturn. crypto experts are basically 90% consensus that the 4 year bull cycle ended in Nov and we have at least 6 months of downtrend coming (completely aside from the fact that BTC/crypto has been trading with the market for about a year now and the market is also way down) I switched to leverage shorting blue chip cryptos like BNB/ETH/LTC about a month ago, it's saved my ass.

[HitRed]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUnLerenWMY



This is the second video I have seen that shows the historical chart of the federal funds rate. There is a trend line that could show the feds increases in rates is very limited. Meaning the Fed is very limited ability to fight inflation and might resume quantitative easing.

[HitRed]

https://www.youtube.com/c/YankeeStacking/videos





This is the other poster. Start at 4:00 min. for the chart. 8:00 is the heart of it.

[saxitoxin]

President Bukele says El Salvador bought the dip!



I like Bukele since he's the president of a country of 8 million people and regularly gets more likes on his Tweets than Old Joe, whom he mocks relentlessly.

[mookiemcgee]

President Bukele says El Salvador bought the dip!



I like Bukele since he's the president of a country of 8 million people and regularly gets more likes on his Tweets than Old Joe, whom he mocks relentlessly.

He's had some pretty hilarious tweets...

For a nation state the thesis is long term so buying at whatever the price is now is likely to work out in the longer term (if BTC survives lol). I'm confident he will be a hero in his country in 10 years time, though I acknowledge it's certainly possible they hang him.

[mookiemcgee]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUnLerenWMY



This is the second video I have seen that shows the historical chart of the federal funds rate. There is a trend line that could show the feds increases in rates is very limited. Meaning the Fed is very limited ability to fight inflation and might resume quantitative easing.

I'm still of the opinion that while FED can't do both (bail out failing corps and stop inflation), they will continue to err on the side of curbing inflation and if the market goes tits up so be it. $ > economy

[HitRed]

Velocity of Money
St. Louis Fed
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V

This is interesting. Inflation is 8.5 and likely to go to 11.2. Yet the velocity of money is at a 60 YEAR low. Seems counter to expected. Makes it look like the economy is dead but Americans didn’t stop buying houses, cars and tones of stuff. Unless the word domestically means we import too much.

The velocity of money is the frequency at which one unit of currency is used to purchase domestically- produced goods and services within a given time period. In other words, it is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. If the velocity of money is increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy.

[mookiemcgee]

Big week in crypto news!

UST a stable coin created by the founder of LUNA (and backed by the value of luna and other highly volatile assets) lost it's peg a couple days ago and the situation keeps getting worse. The 72h chart for Luna is a pretty incredible sight to behold lol. went from around $90 over the weekend to bottoming out around .50 earlier this morning. Even a dead cat bounces when you drop it from high enough so it's resting somewhere around $1.50 now. This is probably not a buying opportunity, all signs point to the first top 50 market cap coin death of the crypto winter we are entering.

[HitRed]

I have read two different views.

1. UST was pegged to the us dollar
2. UST was pegged to Luna.

Which is true?
What is the mechanism that caused the unpegging?

UST is an algorithmic stablecoin, which differs from other stablecoins because it has no reserves. Instead, it holds value based on an algorithm that is coded to strike a balance between the stablecoin and a partner coin.

In UST’s case, that partner coin is its sister cryptocurrency, Luna. Every time a UST token is minted, the equivalent of $1 in Luna is burned, or removed from circulation, and vice versa, to maintain the peg.

So, to regain the UST peg, Kwon supports a plan which proposes increasing the minting capacity of Luna from $293 million to over $1.2 billion. This would add more Luna to market to be minted and sold in an attempt to try and bring UST back to $1.

Sounds like Quantitative Easing

Kwon admits that this plan comes at a “high cost” to UST and Luna holders, “but we will continue to explore various options to bring in more exogenous capital to the ecosystem & reduce supply overhang on UST.”

[HitRed]

Bitcoin price today $23,300

https://search.yahoo.com/search?fr=mcaf ... rice+today

[mookiemcgee]

Bitcoin price today $23,300

https://search.yahoo.com/search?fr=mcaf ... rice+today

ETH price wicked below $1200, all signs point to lower lows ahead. It's a little late to be getting into shorts here, but ETH sub 800, BTC sub 16k are where I'm starting to buy back in personally... with the full expectation I will have to sit on it until 2025 before we start seeing some potential big returns again.

Prices could end up way lower, BTC has never really been through a real USA recession before. There are still some who think a real recession with the dollar starting to simp could great a bull situation for BTC (the it's digital gold/hedge theory) though I think that is a minority opinion at this point as most indicators point to it continuing to decline vs the dollar along with the stock market+economy.

[HitRed]

Never heard of Celsius.

The big crypto lender Celsius, which as recently as April claimed to hold at least 150,000 bitcoin, worth about $3.5 billion at current prices, halted withdrawals.

[mookiemcgee]

It was/is a medium sized exchanged, based in NJ though so I wouldn't be surprised if saw jail time for some of these fuckers.

There was a guy on reddit who warned people about this like 2-3 weeks ago, and even the mods basically wrote him off as a nut lol.

https://www.reddit.com/r/SubredditDrama ... ocurrency/

If people were paying attention the writing has been on the wall about not keeping your coins with an exchange rather than your own wallet since exchanges first starting popping up like 8-10 years ago (mt gox). More recently last summer during the Canadian trucker 'crisis' the CEO of an actual exchange warned people that they have no control if gov'ts decide to freeze their wallets. It's all give and take, it's 'easier' and 'cheaper' to do trading on an offchain exchange... but there are easy options for trading on chain too (we call them dex's, decentralized exchanges) where everything always stays in your own wallet in your own control (uniswap,1inch,sushiswap,pancakeswap ect).

Even coinbase the biggest US exchange warned that if it went bankrupt it would basically freeze withdrawls just like this and you money/coins would be stuck for years.

[jusplay4fun]

After Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices Crash, ‘Crypto Winter Now Hangs in the Balance,’ Says This Expert
Alex Gailey on twitter
June 14, 2022

Bitcoin and ethereum plunged by more than 15% at the start of the week, marking a new 18-month low for the two most well-known cryptocurrencies on the market. Bitcoin fell below $23,000 and ethereum dropped under $1,200.

With continued rising inflation and the S&P 500 falling into bear market territory Monday morning, one expert warns that a “crypto winter now hangs in the balance.” “Crypto winter” describes when prices fall and remain low for an extended period, such as they did in between early 2018 and mid-2020.

“Crypto hobbles into the week somewhat beholden to the whims of the stock markets, clearly on pins and needles over May inflation numbers — the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report dropped on Friday,” says Rich Blake, a financial consultant at Uphold, a crypto exchange. “Economists expected the CPI to rise 8.3% year over year, but the headline inflation level actually came in at 8.6%. Wall Street was groping for a sign that inflation may have peaked. So is the Federal Reserve.”

Cryptocurrency Prices Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum (June 14)
Bitcoin, ethereum, and the broader crypto market continue to slump amid macroeconomic uncertainty that’s being driven by surging inflation, a shaky stock market, rising interest rates, and recession fears.

https://time.com/nextadvisor/investing/ ... inflation/


also,

Pros and Cons: Earning Interest on your Cryptocurrency with Celsius Network

https://cryptobuffett.medium.com/pros-a ... 6991385350


And I am not sure I can trust a URL called "fool"....LoL

Celsius Review: Excellent DeFi Lending, Loaning, and Staking Services With Limited Crypto Trading
by: Tor Constantino
Updated March 3, 2022

Celsius is primarily a decentralized finance (DeFi) platform focusing on crypto lending, borrowing, and earning. It's also a cryptocurrency app that enables the purchase of 10 specific cryptos that can be converted to more than 30 other e-currencies. Not for day traders, Celsius is ideal for beginners and anyone interested in passive income. U.S. residents are permitted to register on the platform; however, as of July 2021, new users in New York and Washington state cannot purchase assets through the app. See our full Celsius review to see if it meets your needs.

https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/cryptoc ... us-review/

[HitRed]

$21,100 Bitcoin.

Interesting story on staked ethereum. I learn something new every day.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-h ... p_catchall

[mookiemcgee]

$21,100 Bitcoin.

Interesting story on staked ethereum. I learn something new every day.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-h ... p_catchall

If Three Arrows Capital goes tits up (rumors are actively swirling the last 24 hours), it's gonna start another massive leg for crypto way way down. It's all going to start with them being forced to sell sETH (staked ethereum, a product by lido you referenced above). With this Fed announcement coming, this shit is really gonna hit the fan. Shorting ETH (at least in the very short term, like for the next couple weeks) seems like one of the most obvious trades out there.

https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1536876343815983104

https://twitter.com/mhonkasalo/status/1 ... 0925046785

[HitRed]

$19,200

$18,900

About six weeks ago when Bitcoin was $33,000 my neighbor transferred his entire retirement savings into Bitcoin. I don’t know if his wife knows.


——

It is still beating inflation. Asset of the decade? I can’t think of a better one.


——

The slide seems to be Babel freezing accounts.

[mookiemcgee]

Asset of the decade? I can’t think of a better one.

It's been pretty ok!





Still not convinced this isn't a bull trap happening now, BTC dominance is going down the last month which is bullish but history suggests we are dead cat bouncing. If you are getting in with a long term horizon though, it's a pretty great time to be buying BTC.

Eth is approaching a pretty big narrative milestone with the switch from proof of work (like BTC miners consumer energy to gain coins in return for securing the network) to proof of stake (people 'lock' their coins for tiny interest in ETH which similarly helps secure the network) with the change set to take place next month in Sept. I'm personally expecting a little more pump to over 2k before merge and then having it tank after the merge (SELL THE NEWS). In the end not much changes for the end users of ETH, gas prices still higher than any other network (even BTC).

Real L2s featuring rollups are now online, Optimism has been crushing it with some expecting a rotation to Arbitrum coming over the next few months. Metis is another L2 that is starting to pop off. Arbitrum doesn't have a 'coin' of it's own yet, but an airdrop is expected to happen this year to launch it. How to qualify for the AD is not yet clear, just get some assets there and interact with protocols (this is what i did with Optimism and they airdropped me 500 OP ($1k USD value) a couple months back

[saxitoxin]

My new take on BTC is that it's no hedge against inflation or recession, it merely mirrors the markets more dramatically. During good times it does 10 times better, and during bad times it does 10 times worse. But it will never invert the markets.