coronavirus - The Legacy

[mrswdk]

A bunch of countries (incl. the UK, France and China) have started arresting people who break their quarantines. Sounds like these New York socialites could do with being on the receiving end of a little police brutality!

inb4 Dukasaur 'I hope they put a mask on their batons'

[2dimes]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatch ... -1.5500092

I hoped the interview was longer and funnier but he does have a typical Canadian prairie region accent.

[KoolBak]

There's more than one kind of canook accent?!?! (eh?!)

[2dimes]

Probably more than eight.

[Dukasaur]

My responses aren't knee-jerk or parroted from government ministers. I work in healthcare service design/delivery and have spent a fair bit of time recently reading the NHS advice (NHS isn't controlled by ministers), WHO advice (independent body) and views of various international experts in epidemiology.

Okay. Well, I do not work in healthcare in any way, so I respect that you have some expertise to bring to bear. I do read quite a bit, however, and I'm not scientifically illiterate so I do bring some ability to critically evaluate what I'm reading.

Here's an interview with Larry Brilliant. It has a very interesting exchange. Just one paragraph, but I see very similar comments in many, many other articles.
https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/

(Q)Should we be wearing masks?

(A)The N95 mask itself is extremely wonderful. The pores in the mask are three microns wide. The virus is one micron wide. So you get people who say, well, it's not going to work. But you try having three big, huge football players who are rushing for lunch through a door at lunchtime—they're not going to get through. In the latest data I saw, the mask provided 5x protection. That's really good. But we have to keep the hospitals going and we have to keep the health professionals able to come to work and be safe. So masks should go where they’re needed the most: in taking care of patients.

So, in the end he says the same thing most of the experts say. Reserve these for the health care workers. But in doing so he admits the masks work. His argument is not that they don't work, but (partially reading between the lines) that there's a shortage and we need to keep them for the healthcare workers. Fair enough, I can understand that in a shortage you address the highest priorities first. But that's a completely different animal from what we are being told by the government -- that the masks don't work.

In the end, most of the articles I see either outright admit or come close to admitting that the masks do work. But our governments, through their own negligence, allowed a shortage to occur, and now that the shortage is here they are taking care of their own people and sending a big F.U. to the public. The thing is, even at this late date, the shortage is unnecessary. Taiwan and South Korea -- forgive me for constantly harping, but they are the big success stories I keep coming back to -- retooled factories, even had military personnel making masks. They were also a bit late out of the gate, but they made it a priority and caught up. Taiwan makes 10 million masks a day now, and they were rationed by family to make sure every family had a supply at home.

You're drawing a correlation between 'masks' and rate of success controlling the COVID outbreak, I'm saying there are way more factors at play and the evidence suggests it's some of those other factors that are the important ones.

I'm not saying the masks are the only element. We've been arguing about masks and so most of what I've said is about masks, but I'm not denying the importance of other elements. For starters, they're testing a much broader swath of the population that what we do in North America. That allows them to find infected people and isolate them before they become symptomatic. Also, everybody owns a thermometer and takes their own temperature regularly. This too helps find infected people sooner than waiting for other symptoms.

We won't know until it's all over and all the research papers are written, exactly which elements were most decisive. You don't know for sure, and I don't know for sure. All we can do is try to reason it out and try to keep an open mind.

You point out that South Korea was quick to cancel sporting events and other large gatherings, which I agree was also an important element. But what they have not done, is shut down entire cities. The kind of total shutdown that happened in Wuhan, and that is now happening in many European and American cities, wasn't needed. My thinking has evolved since I started that "shut down the quarantines" thread, but in general I still think shutting down an entire city to catch an illness should not be necessary. It's like using a sledgehammer to crack a walnut.

The Korean and Taiwanese strategy was very individual-focused. Test as many people as possible, have them take their temperature to further help catch infections, focus on those who are actually sick and quarantine them, have individuals in the wider society protect themselves with hygiene and masking. Locking up 10 million people because 10 thousand are sick is completely excessive, provided that more intelligent choices are used.

It's really ironic to me that the allegedly individualistic West is engaging in these vast totalitarian city shutdowns, while the allegedly collectivist hive minds of East Asia are focused on identifying and quarantining the sick, not the healthy. Most people in Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore are going to work, and they will come out of this with their societies and economies in relatively whole condition.

[Dukasaur]

I hope your family stays healthy, Duk.

Thank you! The same to you and yours!

One thing I think you missed is lack of preparation as far as lacking pandemic capacity.

It's true. I'm well-stocked on many things, but to be honest the issue of mask never occurred to me before. It will definitely be part of my strategic stockpiles in future years.

Korea had an outbreak of MERS only five or so years ago, in which lazy quarantine policies led to a outbreak of a very preventable disease. China and Korea both had SARS kill thousands less than 20 years ago. Both of these events had limited effects in Europe and North America, but had huge lessons to learn for most people who are in government today in those countries. As somebody who lived through the MERS outbreak in Korea, we learned the value of quarantine and staying home unless you had to go out. In contrast, we've had next to no actual epidemics of that scale occur in the US, which is why Trump probably felt safe eliminating the pandemic response team literally two years ago.
And in addition, terrible air quality in both those countries led to masks being relatively common things, as you said (also, to be sure, the belief that masks keep you from getting sick, when in reality they mostly lower the chance of you passing the infection along). The thing about "shaming" relatively low-risk people for wearing masks while there's a vast shortage affecting people who are high-risk is that it might serve a valuable purpose - again, all focus should be on finding ways to avoid leaving home. Hospitals are being told to ration masks. For us to wear masks in order to pursue non-life threatening tasks while doctors and nurses have to reuse theirs for days at a time seems a bit overly self-oriented in a time when we all need to maximize public awareness.

I addressed some of this in my comments in the previous post. Yes, there's a shortage, and yes, it's reasonable in a shortage to address the most pressing needs first. But there doesn't need to be a shortage. Taiwan was caught off-guard also. Even as the crisis was unrolling, even as Covid cases were entering the country, they retooled industries and redirected production so that they made enough, and then they rationed to make sure that everyone got some of what was made. We are no less wealthy and no less productive than Taiwan. There's no reason why we couldn't do the same, if we made it a priority. The trouble is, that in order to make it a priority, governments would have to stop hiding behind the "masks don't do anything" mantra. It's a simple product to make, there's no reason we couldn't make it. Our governments have painted us into this corner.

As far as your oh-so-diplomatically worded implication that I'm just being a selfish asshole, I forgive you, and I thank you for taking the trouble to say it so gently and diplomatically. But here's the scenario, and maybe you'll think differently afterward.

My wife goes to dialysis three times a week. She's transported by handi-van. Now, most people who haven't dealt with the system assume that handi-van drivers are some kind of ambulance attendants. They're not. They don't have the pay or the training or the expertise or the professional pride of ambulance attendants. They're basically just cab drivers. In fact, back when I drove cab, I often covered dialysis calls. Like all cab drivers, handi-van drivers are recruited from the most desperately unskilled slice of the unemployed. You basically just need a drivers license and no recent felony convictions. They get paid a commission which works out to less than minimum wage, so they have no incentive to give a shit. They get minimal-to-no training and minimal-to-no supervision. If they survive a couple years, they get full time status and then they get more training and a bit of professional pride, but the vast majority won't last long enough to get full-time status.

I don't think they spend a lot of time thinking about cross-contamination. I saw one guy in my driveway last week, waiting to pick up the wife. He reached down and scratched his balls, and then with the same hand reached up and scratched his ears.

Now, most dialysis patients aren't single-condition patients. The vast majority have multiple conditions. On the way to the hospital, my wife's van pick ups two more patients. So, for an hour there, and an hour back, three times a week, she's trapped in a small van with a driver whose personal hygiene might not be the best, and with two other patients who also have a laundry list of illnesses. Am I really being a selfish asshole to think that she should be able to mask up to protect herself?

A chain is only as strong as its weakest link. The hospital is spic-and-span. The doctors and nurses wash their hands forty times a day. Every item, right down to drinking straws, is bought from a sterile supplier and dispensed either from a single-use package or from an autoclave. And then we have the transport. Weakest link.

[mrswdk]

I was curious about why the Korean and Taiwanese administrations have been going nuts for giving everyone face masks and from a bit of Googling it sounds like the reason they are doing so is because wearing masks will help symptom-less carriers avoid passing on COVID to other people before they carrier has been diagnosed (e.g. this article says the Korean government are recommending only people with symptoms wear masks. Other medical experts in the country are arguing with thatand saying that healthy people should wear them too, which they are saying because those people might be symptom-less carriers at risk of spreading the disease to other people). So yes, some governments in Asia are mass-producing masks in response to the COVID outbreak, but they're not saying masks will stop you contracting COVID.

Incidentally wearing masks to prevent yourself spreading a disease has been a practice in Japan for quite a long time as far as I'm aware. People who are sick often wear masks when they're out and about to stop them from passing their sickness on to other people.

As I said earlier, if you're in close contact with COVID carriers for extended periods of time then a mask will help you avoid contracting COVID - but only if combined with eye protection and some pretty serious and regular sterilisation on your clothes, hands etc. The virus spreads via vapour droplets, which can enter your body via your eyes just as much as they can via your mouth or nose, so a mask by itself won't do anything.

Appreciate you're just trying to look out for your wife but the mask thing is a needless distraction. There are all sorts of other things you can be doing instead.

[jusplay4fun]

I think that the USA, government and citizens, alike were caught off-guard by this COVID-19 Pandemic.

I kept thinking this was over-HYPED as a real danger. Until last weekend.

I think the USA was behind on the # of Test Kits and Masks available. Ventilators were and apparently still are in short supply. PPE was limited, the mask N-95 or N-91 (or whatever #) mask being the most needed and in short supply here.

The question is how much do we prepare for and how much is enough? We could have 1,000 million or 1 billion masks in storage on stand-by, BUT is that TOO MANY? How many are enough? (about 3 per each citizen)...and where do we store ALL these?

For example, we stockpile Toilet paper and tissues and paper towels by buying them in bulk. Do we need a one year supply of each? Do we need to stockpile one year of food? How do we manage the supply and rotate the supply, too? Most of those do not expire, but rotation is important. And we do keep bottled water around, partly because our city supplied water has has problems 2x in the past year. I usually kept only one case, but now keep 1.5 to 2 around for emergencies.

I find it interesting how Taiwan quickly ramped up production; that is impressive and the foresight to get them made quickly and apparently distributed in time to make a real impact.

JUS a few thoughts to add to the discussion

JP4Fun

[mrswdk]

For example, we stockpile Toilet paper and tissues and paper towels by buying them in bulk. Do we need a one year supply of each? Do we need to stockpile one year of food? How do we manage the supply and rotate the supply, too? Most of those do not expire, but rotation is important. And we do keep bottled water around, partly because our city supplied water has has problems 2x in the past year. I usually kept only one case, but now keep 1.5 to 2 around for emergencies

You don't need to stockpile anything. The only reason there are shortages in supermarkets at the moment is because of people panic buying.

If you're worried about running out of toilet paper then start douching in the shower. It's actually way more hygienic than wiping yourself with paper.

[jusplay4fun]

It is called saving money: buying in Bulk and storing them in your home.

Jumping in the shower after each bowel movement is not practical.

For example, we stockpile Toilet paper and tissues and paper towels by buying them in bulk. Do we need a one year supply of each? Do we need to stockpile one year of food? How do we manage the supply and rotate the supply, too? Most of those do not expire, but rotation is important. And we do keep bottled water around, partly because our city supplied water has has problems 2x in the past year. I usually kept only one case, but now keep 1.5 to 2 around for emergencies

You don't need to stockpile anything. The only reason there are shortages in supermarkets at the moment is because of people panic buying.

If you're worried about running out of toilet paper then start douching in the shower. It's actually way more hygienic than wiping yourself with paper.

[mrswdk]

Jumping in the shower after each bowel movement is not practical.

You could take the shower head off, squat and spray it up your ass. Then you don't need to take your clothes off.

Although a really quick rinse in the shower with your clothes off could be over and done with in a minute or two.

[saxitoxin]

Jumping in the shower after each bowel movement is not practical.

You could take the shower head off, squat and spray it up your ass. Then you don't need to take your clothes off.

Although a really quick rinse in the shower with your clothes off could be over and done with in a minute or two.

I prefer to take LONG and LUXURIOUS showers. So take your "quick rinse" and SHOVE IT.

[saxitoxin]

Democrat-ruled Hawaii has closed its borders with the rest of America, requiring a 14-day quarantine for anyone entering the state.

It's funny how the Democrats, the biggest cheerleaders for open borders, are the first to shut theirs down when they're directly threatened.

The best quote ...

”To be honest, we think it’s going to be very difficult to enforce this,” said Maj. Gen. Kenneth Hara, the state’s adjutant general at Saturday’s press conference.

https://www.civilbeat.org/2020/03/hawai ... -arrivals/

[mrswdk]

Jumping in the shower after each bowel movement is not practical.

You could take the shower head off, squat and spray it up your ass. Then you don't need to take your clothes off.

Although a really quick rinse in the shower with your clothes off could be over and done with in a minute or two.

I prefer to take LONG and LUXURIOUS showers. So take your "quick rinse" and SHOVE IT.

You can't shove me, you have to keep at least 2 meters away from me for social distancing purposes.

[saxitoxin]

COVID-19 Effective Governments Update

Deaths per 1MM People

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/

1. Europe (Italy) - 113
2. Europe (Spain) - 60
3. Iran - 24
4. Europe (France) - 16
5. Europe (Netherlands) - 16
6. Europe (Switzerland) - 14
7. Europe (Luxembourg) - 13
8. Europe (Belgium) - 11
9. Europe (UK) - 6
10. Europe (Denmark) - 6
...
20. United States - 2

Thank you, President Donald J. Trump, for imposing an early travel ban on China when Europe chose not to.

Strength through Unity. Unity through Trump.

[jonesthecurl]

The World Health Organization (WHO) said on Tuesday the US could become the new epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic.

"We are now seeing a very large acceleration in cases in the US. So it does have that potential," WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris said.

Mr Cuomo's warning comes as President Donald Trump suggested having the US back in business by early next month.

[saxitoxin]

The World Health Organization (WHO) said on Tuesday the US could become the new epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic.

"We are now seeing a very large acceleration in cases in the US. So it does have that potential," WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris said.

Mr Cuomo's warning comes as President Donald Trump suggested having the US back in business by early next month.

LOL, WHO also said no one should ban travel from China ... 30 days after Europe followed that advice they're having to dig mass graves to deal with the thousands upon thousands of dead bodies piling up

No one with half a brain cell is still listening to WHO; they've been discredited and are now a pseudo scientific laughing stock

[saxitoxin]

Imagine if Clinton had been president. She'd have followed WHO like her pal Macron and kept the US open and we'd have 30,000 dead now instead of 300.

Trump turned out to be the right president at the right time in history.

[HitRed]

Imagine if Clinton had been president. She'd have followed WHO like her pal Macron and kept the US open and we'd have 30,000 dead now instead of 300.

Trump turned out to be the right president at the right time in history.

+1

God agrees.

"My spirit leads him, he follows my way."

[jonesthecurl]

Would you like a list of ways in which Trump doesn't follow god?

[jonesthecurl]

Or, better, give a list of ways in which he does.

[saxitoxin]

Would you like a list of ways in which Trump doesn't follow god?

No ...

Romans 3:21 - "For all have sinned and fall short of the glory of God."

[HitRed]

Maybe God looks is looking at the current Trump and is not holding on to the past.

[saxitoxin]

This just in...

Americans are thankful Trump is not Manny"The Plague" Macron.

Sixty percent of Americans indicated in the poll they approve of the way the president is steering the country in response to the pandemic.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/24/trump-a ... virus.html

The Chief has been seen on TV everyday, leading America to salvation, while 81 year old Biden is nowhere to be seen, hiding in the hermetically sealed medical bunker his big business donors built him.

[mrswdk]

I heard the US Congress is so polarized that the two Ruling Party factions can't even vote through emergency support for business and employees dealing with the COVID outbreak right now.