Is it time to end the quarantines?

[Dukasaur]

I understand the original logic of the quarantines. "Here's a new disease that we have no vaccine for. Let's contain it to the narrowest possible group of victims to buy some time while we work on a vaccine or at least a treatment protocol."

That's a rational response. However, it didn't work. The disease circled the globe, created new hubs in almost every major country, and is now too widespread for any reasonable containment strategy to work. The quarantines are a failed strategy. They are also a very expensive and socially disruptive strategy.

I don't question the fact that it was right to attempt containment. It was 100% right to make the attempt. However, now that the strategy has demonstrably failed, I think it's time to ditch it. One of the things you see over and over again in success stories of all types, is that the managers were honest enough to face the fact when their strategy was failing, and without getting emotional about it, flipped to Plan B without looking back.

[saxitoxin]

xeno isn't allowed to leave Saint Francois de Pierre Montblanc de la Alligator parish, Louisiana and it's kept the nation's teen pregnancy rate under control

I'd say selective quarantines can work.

[mrswdk]

lol ‘demonstrably failed’. The quarantines have demonstrably worked in China, the only country that has had them in place for any significant amount of time.

What is Duk’s Plan B?

[KoolBak]

Worked in China?!?! Didnt those fuckers START the virus, THEN infect the whole world?

Yeah...worked great.

Plan B = Good coat of fire.

Need coffee......

[2dimes]

The reason quarantines don't work too many people don't respect others then they break quarantine.

Is plan B to let it thin the herd faster?

[mrswdk]

The rate of spread in China is now declining. I can’t remember if the overall number of existing cases is going down or if the rate of increase is just slowing, but the main spread of the disease is now in countries that are not China.

[The ram]

lol ‘demonstrably failed’. The quarantines have demonstrably worked in China, the only country that has had them in place for any significant amount of time.

What is Duk’s Plan B?

Agree with Shimmy here.

I reckon the selfish western society is going to get hit hard. The old and weak are going to drop like flies. Won't be a soul left to post here.

[saxitoxin]

lol ‘demonstrably failed’. The quarantines have demonstrably worked in China, the only country that has had them in place for any significant amount of time.

What is Duk’s Plan B?

Agree with Shimmy here.

I reckon the selfish western society is going to get hit hard. The old and weak are going to drop like flies. Won't be a soul left to post here.

I'll still be here and I'll have AoG with me in a leather collar on a leash.

[mrswdk]

lol ‘demonstrably failed’. The quarantines have demonstrably worked in China, the only country that has had them in place for any significant amount of time.

What is Duk’s Plan B?

Agree with Shimmy here.

Ignoring the fact 'shimmy' is probably some obscure Cockney racial slur, fck yeah high five

[Dukasaur]

The rate of spread in China is now declining. I can’t remember if the overall number of existing cases is going down or if the rate of increase is just slowing, but the main spread of the disease is now in countries that are not China.

It's true that the rate of spread in China has gone down significantly, and in this sense the quarantines are "working."

However, you can't go from "are working" to "have worked" until the end game is reached. Slow spread isn't no spread. The end game of the quarantines is to hold back the spread of the disease until a cure or a reliable vaccine can be developed, tested, manufactured, and distributed. If the disease spreads, very slowly, and still reaches the whole country before the cure or vaccine exists, then you haven't won. You might just as well have let it spread quickly. Would have been a lot less hassle and a lot loss economic pain.

So, a final ruling on whether the quarantines worked can only be made once we have the cure or vaccine. Not being omniscient, I can't give you that ruling now. I'm only saying that it doesn't seem to be working, in the ultimate sense. The spread has been slowed down substantially in China, but not stopped altogether, and in the rest of the world it's still picking up steam. If it continues to spread, even if at a slow rate, and exposes everyone in the world before they've been vaccinated, then all that work was for nothing.

[spurgistan]

lol ‘demonstrably failed’. The quarantines have demonstrably worked in China, the only country that has had them in place for any significant amount of time.

What is Duk’s Plan B?

I mean, South Korea did it too, only with a less intrusive security state.

[mrswdk]

The end game of the quarantines is to hold back the spread of the disease until a cure or a reliable vaccine can be developed, tested, manufactured, and distributed. If the disease spreads, very slowly, and still reaches the whole country before the cure or vaccine exists, then you haven't won. You might just as well have let it spread quickly.

Most people's Plan A: slow the spread of the virus as much as possible, meaning that by the time a cure or vaccine is developed the number of people infected and consequently the number of deaths has been minimised

Dukasaur's Plan A: there's no way to 100% stop the spread of the virus, so let's just work on the assumption everyone is going to get it and start digging some plague pits

On a side note, I looked it up and the virus has basically stopped spreading in China. Looks like containment has worked:

China reported no new locally transmitted coronavirus cases outside of Hubei province, the epicentre of the outbreak, for the third straight day, while major Chinese cities remained on alert for imported infections.

Mainland China had 19 new cases of coronavirus infections on Monday (Mar 9), the National Health Commission said on Tuesday, down from 40 cases a day earlier.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/as ... s-12520660

[mrswdk]

lol ‘demonstrably failed’. The quarantines have demonstrably worked in China, the only country that has had them in place for any significant amount of time.

What is Duk’s Plan B?

I mean, South Korea did it too, only with a less intrusive security state.

Classic. When the Chinese government implements a quarantine it's a police state. When the South Korean or Italian governments implement an identical quarantine that's just good public health policy.

[jimboston]

I understand the original logic of the quarantines. "Here's a new disease that we have no vaccine for. Let's contain it to the narrowest possible group of victims to buy some time while we work on a vaccine or at least a treatment protocol."

That's a rational response. However, it didn't work. The disease circled the globe, created new hubs in almost every major country, and is now too widespread for any reasonable containment strategy to work. The quarantines are a failed strategy. They are also a very expensive and socially disruptive strategy.

I don't question the fact that it was right to attempt containment. It was 100% right to make the attempt. However, now that the strategy has demonstrably failed, I think it's time to ditch it. One of the things you see over and over again in success stories of all types, is that the managers were honest enough to face the fact when their strategy was failing, and without getting emotional about it, flipped to Plan B without looking back.

I don’t think the Quarantines are intended to STOP the spread of the disease... I think all experts know that’s impossible.

I think the point now is to slow the spread of the disease.... “why is this helpful?” you ask...

Well let’s say x% of the population is going to get seriously ill and need medical attention... mainly intravenous fluids, bed rest and associated care, and fever reducing medicine... maybe respiratory help. (I say “x” because I think no one really knows what that number is... maybe it’s or maybe it’s 3%... this is the percentage that will need intensive care... but that would likely live with that care. I’m not talking about the percent that will die.)

So if EVERYONE gets infected fairly quickly, even if that “x” is low, like 2%...the burden on the healthcare system and the general disruption to society would be massive. However, if we can slow down the progress of this disease.... then even if “x” remains the same, the burden to the healthcare system will be more manageable... because there will be less people needing services in short order, even if the same number of people ultimately need services there’s less of a rush. Make sense?

[Dukasaur]

Make sense?

Yes. Although I'm not sure if the cost of the fix exceeds the cost of the potential problem.

[HitRed]

The actions mankind takes to control the spread of this virus are warranted, but only as effective as My will warrants.

As with every cross, there is a purpose and a victory. The purpose with the spread of this virus is to encourage mankind to be more dependent upon Me. Your ultimate protection is in prayer. Therefore, do not be carried away on a wave of fear, but learn to turn to Me in prayer and to seek My protection not only in this problem, but in every problem of life. This dependence on prayer is the victory. - God

[The ram]

lol ‘demonstrably failed’. The quarantines have demonstrably worked in China, the only country that has had them in place for any significant amount of time.

What is Duk’s Plan B?

Agree with Shimmy here.

Ignoring the fact 'shimmy' is probably some obscure Cockney racial slur, fck yeah high five

She/him= Shimmy, no high fiving allowed for fear of contamination. Although I doubt you have anything as you've been self isolating for years.

This virus will save governments around the world trillions. Loads of old age pensioners killed off, the disabled and their disability money saved, aids victims and their weak immune systems. Like I already said, this place is going to be desolate.

[mrswdk]

Make sense?

Yes. Although I'm not sure if the cost of the fix exceeds the cost of the potential problem.

What do you think the USD value of someone's granny's life is?

[spurgistan]

Make sense?

Yes. Although I'm not sure if the cost of the fix exceeds the cost of the potential problem.

What do you think the USD value of someone's granny's life is?

Not to mention that once we start running out of healthcare capacity, it won't just be people's grandparents dying.

[mrswdk]

Capacity that we would run out of far more severely if everyone was just left to catch the virus at the same time without measures being put in place to slow the spread of the virus.

[Dukasaur]

Make sense?

Yes. Although I'm not sure if the cost of the fix exceeds the cost of the potential problem.

What do you think the USD value of someone's granny's life is?

A loaded question, but in truth, society deals with these questions all the time. Nothing has infinite value, not even granny's life. I can't say how much your granny's life is worth, but insurance companies and courts can and do answer questions like that on a regular basis. And remember, you're not giving her life forever. You might be arranging it so she gets the virus in August instead of April. How much is four more months worth?

How much is the cost in lives of the quarantines? Remember, poverty is a killer, and many people will be bankrupted by the quarantines. How much is the cost in unemployment of all the cancelled events and activities? How much is the cost in depression and other psychological illnesses from people socially isolated?

I can't answer all these questions. One day, in hindsight, I'm sure many a Ph.D. dissertation in economics will be composed around one side of the ledger or the other. It seems to me that at the present time the cure is worse than the disease. But I'm not pretending to know for sure.

[jimboston]

Make sense?

Yes. Although I'm not sure if the cost of the fix exceeds the cost of the potential problem.

That’s the key.

You’re not sure... and neither is anyone else.

The experts are working find these answers.

I trust the experts... generally.

I’m not happy everything is getting cancelled... but I don’t think most of these major organizations would cancel event and lose all the revenue they;re going to lose unless they believed this was pretty serious.

[mrswdk]

Make sense?

Yes. Although I'm not sure if the cost of the fix exceeds the cost of the potential problem.

What do you think the USD value of someone's granny's life is?

A loaded question, but in truth, society deals with these questions all the time. Nothing has infinite value, not even granny's life. I can't say how much your granny's life is worth, but insurance companies and courts can and do answer questions like that on a regular basis. And remember, you're not giving her life forever. You might be arranging it so she gets the virus in August instead of April. How much is four more months worth?

How much is the cost in lives of the quarantines? Remember, poverty is a killer, and many people will be bankrupted by the quarantines. How much is the cost in unemployment of all the cancelled events and activities? How much is the cost in depression and other psychological illnesses from people socially isolated?

I can't answer all these questions. One day, in hindsight, I'm sure many a Ph.D. dissertation in economics will be composed around one side of the ledger or the other. It seems to me that at the present time the cure is worse than the disease. But I'm not pretending to know for sure.

Or, what are the economic and social costs of people being unable to receive healthcare (for any ailment) because every hospital and clinic in their area is already at 100% capacity treating people for COVID?

Wuhan has been in lockdown for months and managed to keep infections to less than 1% of the city's population, but there they've still had to build new hospitals to deal with the virus, bring in medical supplies and staff from outside the area for extra support, and frontline clinical staff are completely burned out dealing with the crisis. Imagine what would've happened there if no quarantine had been put in place and 10-20x as many people had ended up infected.

Also, you talk about the cost of people staying home and not working but that's what they're going to do anyway if they get COVID and have to spend 1-2 weeks recovering. At least the people who are able to work remotely can continue to do so if they're at home and healthy.

[Razorvich]

Its just ramping up here in Aus... my USA trip might get cancelled