[AT] Conquer Map Marathon Cup - Completed

[Mad777]

Round 8 has 35 active game still, I found ScamNL inactive since July 16th, unless I found another player who wants to leave this tournament or who has deadbeat during this Round 8 I won't be able to remove him.

[Mad777]

5 games remain ongoing in this round 8, next round may start early this coming week.

ScamNL & shoop76 are the next 2 that were removed from now on then, ScamNL deadbeat and shoop76 is leaving the site.

[Mad777]

Round 9 has started, 86 runners left in this marathon.

[Mad777]

Round 9 has 77 ongoing games remaining.

[Mad777]

Round 9 has 7 games remaining....

[Mad777]

Found hwhrhett missed 3 rounds in all Round 9 games, since I have to keep an even number of player I didn't see another player that missed rounds, unless someone found someone...

Below is the actual Top 10 (overlander still have one game ongoing), there is few more player with 66 wins as well...

evetobl13 78/99
grt 75/99
josko.ri 74/99
Fyrdraca 71/99
overlander 69/98
Ukey 69/99
Jurasu 69/99
Robespierre__ 69/99
Keefie 66/99
MTIceman41 66/99

[Mad777]

Round 10 has started...good luck!

[Mad777]

hwhrhett (missing rounds again) has been eliminated & benga (personal reason) has been withdraw per his request.

84 athletes so far will start Round 11 (several games are still ongoing in this Round 10)

[kizkiz]

Kkelly just deadbeat, for info

[josko.ri]

Kkelly just deadbeat, for info

If we have just him maybe ask benga to continue until someone else deadbeat

[Mad777]

Kkelly just deadbeat, for info

If we have just him maybe ask benga to continue until someone else deadbeat

I will...thx for the heads up

[All Black Rugby]

Hi Mad,

A little surprised I've played the same opponent in Rounds 7 and 10.
How are you assigning opponents? Is it just random, and so some repetition is possible?
With 100 players and only 22 rounds, there is plenty of scope to have a different opponent in each round.

ABR

[Mad777]

Hi Mad,

A little surprised I've played the same opponent in Rounds 7 and 10.
How are you assigning opponents? Is it just random, and so some repetition is possible?
With 100 players and only 22 rounds, there is plenty of scope to have a different opponent in each round.

ABR

Correct, it's random, just odd you faced the same player but still out of my control, I would expect the automate to be more smart...

As a side note I spoke with "Kkelly" and he had a bad time and don't want to withdraw from this tournament therefore things remain as above (hwhrhett & benga).

[Mad777]

Round 10 has 20 active games still...

[Mad777]

One last game in this Round 10...

[Mad777]

Round 11 has started and received a PM from TX AG 90 who want to resign from this tournament and also found persianempire forfeit this round for turning Freemium.

The above 2 players to be the next 2 victims of this marathon reaching the half distance, Round 12 to start with 82 Athletes.

[Mad777]

Forgot another PM from Vid_FISO who wants to leave this Marathon as well, by luck I found rayofsun deadbeating this Round 11, those 2 additional players will be mark as "Eliminated" before Round 12 start and with 80 players.

Note: I have to wait and see but seems like my opponent may as well deadbeat (koenji)..will see

[Mad777]

...Confirming koenji deadbeat this Round, found also Generalissimo missed all his turns (he is MIA from other tournament as well), those are the next 2 to be Eliminated from this Marathon, we are down to 78....Sounds like Round 11 was a pretty tough round .

Several games still ongoing in this Round 11 though...

[agentcom]

I just noticed the 30 win streak for the GA medal ... I think you might need to reevaluate this. I know you've already reduced it from 50, but I think you should look at it mathematically to see how crazy it would be for someone to get 30 wins in a row.

Using the equations found here, even an exceptional player with a 75% win rate could expect to win this medal in less than 1 out of 100 similar tournaments.

If you want to plug in the numbers yourself:
r=30
n=242
p=.75
q=.25
x=1.0004 (There are 3 possible real values for x. See here. The one to use is the positive one that is not equal to 1/p)

The result is a probability of .008602 of a 30-win run. This 75%-win-rate player would get 1 GA medal about every 116 tournaments--or 28,000 games!!! I know the medals are supposed to be hard to get, but this seems a little extreme.

[All Black Rugby]

FYI [url]Madd777[/url], I also got assigned the same player in Rounds 1 and 11...remarkable odds huh

[Mad777]

9 games remaining in this Round 11...

@ agentcom: Yeah I agree with what you demonstrated, I can perhaps put 2 consecutive rounds which makes 22 games?

@ All Black Rugby: I wish I could have control of the odd or perhaps having a smarter Auto Tournament coding

[Mad777]

Since my goal is always to improve what I offer as TO and by listening from you who play my tournament, I went ahead and revised the GA medal award rules (refer OP), the new rule to be for each player who win 2 consecutive round by 11-0 or wining 3 rounds throughout the whole tournament by 11-0 (with the exception if the round has been win from a deadbeat opponent).

I also researched the entire games set from Round 1 to Round 10 included, I then compiled a list at the bottom of the OP.

I hope this will make more sense and adhere to your vision

[josko.ri]

Since my goal is always to improve what I offer as TO and by listening from you who play my tournament, I went ahead and revised the GA medal award rules (refer OP), the new rule to be for each player who win 2 consecutive round by 11-0 or wining 3 rounds throughout the whole tournament by 11-0 (with the exception if the round has been win from a deadbeat opponent).

I also researched the entire games set from Round 1 to Round 10 included, I then compiled a list at the bottom of the OP.

I hope this will make more sense and adhere to your vision

Thanks for revising them, can both medals be achieved or one exclude the other?

[Mad777]

Since my goal is always to improve what I offer as TO and by listening from you who play my tournament, I went ahead and revised the GA medal award rules (refer OP), the new rule to be for each player who win 2 consecutive round by 11-0 or wining 3 rounds throughout the whole tournament by 11-0 (with the exception if the round has been win from a deadbeat opponent).

I also researched the entire games set from Round 1 to Round 10 included, I then compiled a list at the bottom of the OP.

I hope this will make more sense and adhere to your vision

Thanks for revising them, can both medals be achieved or one exclude the other?

yes all 3 can be achieve by a same player

[agentcom]

Since my goal is always to improve what I offer as TO and by listening from you who play my tournament, I went ahead and revised the GA medal award rules (refer OP), the new rule to be for each player who win 2 consecutive round by 11-0 or wining 3 rounds throughout the whole tournament by 11-0 (with the exception if the round has been win from a deadbeat opponent).

I also researched the entire games set from Round 1 to Round 10 included, I then compiled a list at the bottom of the OP.

I hope this will make more sense and adhere to your vision

Happy to hear that you took another look at it! The probability calculations involved were at the top (or maybe above) my level of comprehension, so it would take me quite a while to figure out what the odds are for the new set-up, but obviously you've taken it in the right direction. The whole thing only caught my eye because people tend to seriously miscalculate probabilities when you have things like consecutive events (e.g. overestimating the chances of a team going undefeated or winless) or when large numbers are involved (e.g. lotteries). Here, I can see how someone would look at 100 players playing hundreds of games each and thinking, "someone could easily get X wins in a row."

I doubt I'll have time to try to figure out the math involved in the current set-up. But I do have some guesses from what I remember from plugging in the numbers from before. I think that if anyone worked out the probabilities, you'd still find them uncomfortably low. However, you're probably in or close to a spot where the medal is realistically achievable because of certain realities that are obscured by the averages that are plugged in to the probability calculations. For example, let's say you have a pretty good player with a 60% win rate. Let's say that player's win rate goes up to 80% when he faces an opponent that misses a turn. Since we play 11 games at a time against a single opponent, that's a huge jump when it comes to going undefeated for a round. The probability of going undefeated in that round jumps from 0.4% to 8.6%.

Of course, for our 60% player, going undefeated for a round isn't impossible, just very low. That 0.4% isn't 0%, and missed turns aren't the only thing that could significantly raise expected win percentage over a round of simultaneous games against a single opponent. The player could face an opponent that is substantially weaker than who he usually plays. The opponent might be travelling and have to rush turns.

It will be interesting to see what the actual results of this experiment are over this tournament and future tournaments.

Finally, one interesting (to me, at least) finding while typing this up: Let's say you have a player/scenario with an 80% expected win rate (e.g. good player v. bad player) and another with a 60% win rate (e.g. good player v. average player). What is more likely to happen:
a) 80% player undefeated for 2 consecutive rounds (22 games);
b) 60% player undefeated in 1 round (11 games); or
c) neither--chances of (a) and (b) are about the same

Answer

I would've guessed (b) but the answer is actually (a). If a player can expect to win 80% of his games, his probability of winning 22 straight is actually twice as high as the 60% player winning 11 straight (0.8% v 0.4%).