[SPECIAL] Surprise Mafia - Over - Mafia Wins - MVP Aladdin

[PLAYER57832]

If my wording is off, its because I am new.
I have gone back and reread first few pages. I have some different suspicions now, but not ready to say for sure.
A couple people have posted here, but not yet voted. Is that suspicious? Others accused of being scum early on, but now folks backing off. Is that suspicious? I will wait and see.

Maybe either Hotshot or IB is a psychiatrist in the asylum with some role therein?

oops, EDIT --- UNVOTE first, then---
Seems no time to do much else, and a no vote would be overall harmful, so back to VOTE HOTSHOT

(then again, maybe I was just played a dupe...)

[AladdinSane]

If my wording is off, its because I am new.

Don't worry, Player, you are doing a lot beter in your first game than I did at the start of mine. This is just my second game and I'm def still on teh learning curve regarding the different roles and mechanics that can come into play. You've picked a doozie of a first game, and I'm sure it must be confusing. I had a relatively easy time of it in a recent beginner's game, but that was hard enough.

So far I am tentatively reading you as non-scum, but it is early days yet.

[rishaed]

Who would you pick? Apart from notorious hiders, the only thing I have seen of some interest was TWR being thin skinned.

Well out of the notorious hiders. (Which there are a ton to pick from.)
I know Mtamb came in, for two posts (I made it and looking at ppl.) I'd really like more posting from him. He's outside of his average meta for play, but not his recent meta which has been plagued by inactivity. So Mtamb get in here and post something of worth please since I know you showed up and its past the 11th.

[AladdinSane]

Small thought, a perhaps a little too meta, but how about a list of players who have previously won in a scum roll? These playrs have denomstrated that they have the skills to maintain a deception right thru a game, and it might be useful to no who they are, for future ref. Of course, they're roll in other games doesn't imply anything about their roll in this one, but if we know who they are we can screwtinize their text, voting patterns etc even more closely than usual for tells.

[Streaker]

Modnote:


WingCmdr Ginkapo has replaced TimWoodbury!

[the white rose]

You come off as very frail or perhaps paranoid.

And does that come off as alignmnent-indicative to you?

It raises an eyebrow which is why I posted it. Having only played with TWR once, I do not profess to know of his meta. When accused in the other game, he also defended himself. The difference here, as I see it anyway, is that he's not really accused of anything substantial. He was in the other game which warranted defence. I.e. I find his defensiveness odd. It's something I will keep in mind going forward. Do you disagree?

I am a little pissed as to why pt is suggesting that i may be scum simply cos i have not posted as much in this game as i did in my first game.

Even though i am posting much more than most.

there are many who have posted very little if anything at all. I would wager that that is where we will find scum lurking.

as for the ib v hotshot saga, i am surprised at the weak defence from hotshot. Something here just does not sit right with me. what chance has hotshot been given at winning? if he is survivor and ib's role is to lynch him.

Could ib be scum? surely if he were he would have settled into the background and not fake claimed at the start of day 1.
Could hotshot be scum and could ib know that? would seem awfully unfair on hotshot if that were the case.

all we are told by ib is that hotshot will be harmful to town.....how would he know that? he will not say.

I think what we have to decide is do we believe hotshot's claim of survivor?

If he were a danger to town, surely he would have claimed something much more useful to town? such as doctor or tracker....had he have claimed that would we still be lynching him? i would say we would not take the risk of possibly lynching a town tracker.....so if he is fake claiming why not claim a town pr and survive? thats what i would do.

therefore i am inclined to believe hotshot's claim.

so it follows that i do not believe he is a danger to town, therefore i cannot believe ib.

I may be wrong but for now i would prefer to lynch someone who is sitting quietly in the background. I don't care who, its a potshot, but i think by doing that we are much more likely to lynch a scum. lynching hotshot now would be the same as voting nolynch, who cares whether a 3p survivor survives or not? lets not waste our chance of finding scum.

unvote

[rishaed]

Small thought, a perhaps a little too meta, but how about a list of players who have previously won in a scum roll? These playrs have denomstrated that they have the skills to maintain a deception right thru a game, and it might be useful to no who they are, for future ref. Of course, they're roll in other games doesn't imply anything about their roll in this one, but if we know who they are we can screwtinize their text, voting patterns etc even more closely than usual for tells.

I don't see this being all that helpful as any of the vets here would have at least won once as scum. And... well there's a lot of vets in this game. IMO its a waste of time, but if it floats your boat go for it

[Metsfanmax]

Small thought, a perhaps a little too meta, but how about a list of players who have previously won in a scum roll? These playrs have denomstrated that they have the skills to maintain a deception right thru a game, and it might be useful to no who they are, for future ref. Of course, they're roll in other games doesn't imply anything about their roll in this one, but if we know who they are we can screwtinize their text, voting patterns etc even more closely than usual for tells.

I don't see this being all that helpful as any of the vets here would have at least won once as scum. And... well there's a lot of vets in this game. IMO its a waste of time, but if it floats your boat go for it

It is also simply wrong on its face because you don't have to survive through the game and maintain deception the whole way to win as scum. Some mafia, even very experienced players, get lynched on D1. *cough* Streaker *cough*

[AladdinSane]

I don't see this being all that helpful as any of the vets here would have at least won once as scum. And... well there's a lot of vets in this game. IMO its a waste of time, but if it floats your boat go for it

It is also simply wrong on its face because you don't have to survive through the game and maintain deception the whole way to win as scum. Some mafia, even very experienced players, get lynched on D1. *cough* Streaker *cough*

I see what you both mean, but what if we modified it to a list of players who have won as scum by making it all the way thru teh game / fulfiling their individual wincon?

Anyway, I'm not wedded to teh idea. Perhaps if anyone thinks it might be useful, they can report a player who qualifies. After all, a lot of people are staying silent and not giving us a lot to go on, so small things like this might make a difference.

[madmitch]

I have not posted much because everything I have to say has already been said,by the way nice playing Aladdin, you are playing this game a hell of a lot better than me ,CHEERS MATE, I only see two choices I.B. or Hot Shot, Like everyone is saying if I.B. is lying we can hang him next, I am interested in what is going to happen at night and day 2

[Whatsausage]

I am a little pissed as to why pt is suggesting that i may be scum simply cos i have not posted as much in this game as i did in my first game.

Even though i am posting much more than most.

there are many who have posted very little if anything at all. I would wager that that is where we will find scum lurking.

as for the ib v hotshot saga, i am surprised at the weak defence from hotshot. Something here just does not sit right with me. what chance has hotshot been given at winning? if he is survivor and ib's role is to lynch him.

Could ib be scum? surely if he were he would have settled into the background and not fake claimed at the start of day 1.
Could hotshot be scum and could ib know that? would seem awfully unfair on hotshot if that were the case.

all we are told by ib is that hotshot will be harmful to town.....how would he know that? he will not say.

I think what we have to decide is do we believe hotshot's claim of survivor?

If he were a danger to town, surely he would have claimed something much more useful to town? such as doctor or tracker....had he have claimed that would we still be lynching him? i would say we would not take the risk of possibly lynching a town tracker.....so if he is fake claiming why not claim a town pr and survive? thats what i would do.

therefore i am inclined to believe hotshot's claim.

so it follows that i do not believe he is a danger to town, therefore i cannot believe ib.

I may be wrong but for now i would prefer to lynch someone who is sitting quietly in the background. I don't care who, its a potshot, but i think by doing that we are much more likely to lynch a scum. lynching hotshot now would be the same as voting nolynch, who cares whether a 3p survivor survives or not? lets not waste our chance of finding scum.

unvote

It seems like every post you make, you make a stronger statement about how you are posting. Yes you have posted a number of times, but almost all the meat is after pt called you out. Before that you were doing alright in a numerical sense, but the posts were low on substance, and not making a lasting impact (particularly to pt it appears). The point I'm trying to make is, why be pissed at pt, when that suggestion was at a point where you made less of an impression than you did in a game he played with you in which you were town? No one is hard-calling you scum, pt just suggested that your impact was more like games in which you have been scum than like games in which you have been town. (I have only been in one game with you, so I can't really comment on your meta, but I can agree with pt that at the point in which he made that statement, you weren't making much by way of an impression.)

If you feel strongly that someone posting less is scum, pick one and press the issue. I have seen a few say that time is too low to look anywhere new; there are 8 days left, that is longer than many days in their entirety.

The way I see it, either IB or hotshot is misleading us (or both). If you believe hotshot is just a vanilla survivor, then you should vote for IB. If you don't, then you should vote for hotshot, as he is either a liar or a threat to town.

I agree that it doesn't seem right that hotshot would just be given up as a survivor like that, but I also agree that IB likely wouldn't come out like this if he didn't know it to be true. (This isn't to say that makes him pro-town.) I think given these two things, hotshot is a better lynch. I don't think he would claim some town PR like you suggest, as then he would have to fabricate actions and justification every day, while running the risk of being NK'ed. A survivor would want to seem like they aren't a threat to anyone.

If you think that IB is lying, I don't really understand why you aren't voting for him. There are plenty of ways he could be scum. The way I see it, at least one of IB and hotshot is anti-town, and I think that 50-50 odds are much better than your potshot.

@IB, when did you receive this information about hotshot? With your role, or at the end of N0?

[the white rose]

nicely argued sausage, but i suspect that ib is just a 3p lyncher whose target is hotshot who is a 3p survivor.

We are here to try lynch scum and really i do not think either are scum.

We could lynch hotshot, find he was indeed a survivor, then lynch ib and find he is a lyncher who has already won his game.....meanwhile scum get away with 2 days of what amounts to nolynch.

you yourself are keeping in the background with one or 2 posts here and there, just like you did in adventureland when you were scum.

i really do not know whether you are scum or not in this game, but i am sure there is a greater chance of you being scum than either ib or hotshot....so vote sausage

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

HIYA GANG!

The person is ANTI TOWN. I do not believe mafia.

Why should town kill Hotshot? IB is claiming that Hotshot is some form of 3rd party killer. If this is the case then Mafia can kill him. There is nothing in that role that makes him more dangerous to town than mafia, so I couldnt give a crap until numbers drop.

Honestly if rather not lynch either ib or hotshot since I believe neither will result in a anti town kill

You just went up on my scum-0-meter.

While my role makes me seem an island unto myself I would NOT be surprised that there would be other roles created to counter my "job". In fact I am fairly certain that is the case.

Something to keep in mind.

Until you make an effort to help town, rather than your own person wincon, I will not be voting for you or hotshot.

It might be ok. It will end with a score of people with little or no actual input on who they think is town or mafia. I'm not ok with this.

Amen Brother.

Now how about we actually look for mafia? Oh right yeah that would be a good idea!

So first up we have Aladdin. Acting dubious by voting the mod, (early scum tell) and then does something extremelly suspect. Accepts IB's case immediately without questioning and deduces a lot of additional information about it. Now lets look at this, an INEXPERIENCED player can understand IB's hints easier than both Storr and Mets.... Its almost like he had helpful information.

My conclusion is that Aladdin is mafia and got over excited by the idea of a non-mafia lynch led by a non-mafia player. I'm convinced at this point that Hotshot is 3rd party of some form, and that IB is not mafia.

So Vote Aladdin.

Next up we have a player who has been dubiously inactive, claiming there is nothing to talk about.... An odd claim in a game where IB has joined Storr in stirring the pot.

ok, aladin you have really rubbed me up the wrong way.

you are clearly scum as a townie would not commit murder the way you have done.....therefore unvote vote aladin

oh and before you ask who has been murdered, the victim is the english language.

don't think i can stand more than 2 weeks of this torture.

How does everyone read this post? Firstly it has a spelling mistake in the first line, lacks capitalisation and punctuation in multiple places, yet claims to care about the english language. Secondly, it discusses an issue than has been repeatedly discussed and concluded not to be Aladdins fault.

Conclusion: Its a fabricated reason to get an early vote on a mafia partner so later can claim disassociation if the other should be lynched. A common inexperienced player mistake. This is backed up by all the reasons that PT and Sausage are raising.

Rish, Player and Benga. I am watching you three carefully.

Sorry IB but we've never seen eye to eye about how to treat third parties.

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

[Metsfanmax]

So first up we have Aladdin. Acting dubious by voting the mod, (early scum tell) and then does something extremelly suspect. Accepts IB's case immediately without questioning and deduces a lot of additional information about it. Now lets look at this, an INEXPERIENCED player can understand IB's hints easier than both Storr and Mets.... Its almost like he had helpful information.

My conclusion is that Aladdin is mafia and got over excited by the idea of a non-mafia lynch led by a non-mafia player. I'm convinced at this point that Hotshot is 3rd party of some form, and that IB is not mafia.

So, I actually had a similar thought -- Aladdin is doing a hell of a lot of speculation given what IB has stated. The problem with this type of speculation is that being consistent with the facts presented does not make the speculation true; there are a number of plausible scenarios that are consistent. It is a pretty classic scum tell to spin a story like this to lead town in a certain direction and mold how they're thinking about it.

But let's also go one meta-level up -- while this is often a scum tell, perhaps Aladdin is just doing what many inexperienced players do, which is to try and prove their worth to the game by contributing a lot. So I'm not as confident yet as you are that Aladdin has earned a vote. Still, consider it noted.

Next up we have a player who has been dubiously inactive, claiming there is nothing to talk about.... An odd claim in a game where IB has joined Storr in stirring the pot.

ok, aladin you have really rubbed me up the wrong way.

you are clearly scum as a townie would not commit murder the way you have done.....therefore unvote vote aladin

oh and before you ask who has been murdered, the victim is the english language.

don't think i can stand more than 2 weeks of this torture.

How does everyone read this post? Firstly it has a spelling mistake in the first line, lacks capitalisation and punctuation in multiple places, yet claims to care about the english language. Secondly, it discusses an issue than has been repeatedly discussed and concluded not to be Aladdins fault.

I don't understand this controversy surrounding the white rose. There's a lot of nooby play involved here, and no one is making a case that there's any actual mafia tells involved. It's mostly just a bunch of people being angry because people are disagreeing with them.

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

Mets take a goddamn stance.

I cannot find a single post where you have been positive. You disagreed with Storr about vig claiming. You disagreed with IB about lynching Hotshot. You disagreed with Rage about his interpretations. You disagree with me about my reads. etc etc

There is a theme here.

[Metsfanmax]

Mets take a goddamn stance.

I cannot find a single post where you have been positive. You disagreed with Storr about vig claiming. You disagreed with IB about lynching Hotshot. You disagreed with Rage about his interpretations. You disagree with me about my reads. etc etc

There is a theme here.

Indeed. The theme being that this is how I play in every game

[AladdinSane]

So first up we have Aladdin. Acting dubious by voting the mod, (early scum tell) and then does something extremelly suspect. Accepts IB's case immediately without questioning and deduces a lot of additional information about it. Now lets look at this, an INEXPERIENCED player can understand IB's hints easier than both Storr and Mets.... Its almost like he had helpful information.

My conclusion is that Aladdin is mafia and got over excited by the idea of a non-mafia lynch led by a non-mafia player. I'm convinced at this point that Hotshot is 3rd party of some form, and that IB is not mafia.

So Vote Aladdin.

HIYA, WC Gingkapo: About time you posted something. I was beginning to think you were scummarining.

That's a joke, btw - quite similar to my VOTE STREAKER joke, which I'll get to in a minute. If you read thru my posts, you'll see that I make a lot of dumb jokes - it's how I role.

So: you've raised three points against me - mod vote, speculation that seems plausible, and accepting IB's case two redily.

The explanations for the first two are related: In my one-and-only other game, I did a lot of early speculation that Streaker was Mafia, when there wasn't really much to go on. It was just a gut feeling that I had, and close examination of Streaker's posts. My speculations weren't 100% accurate, but I urged the Cop (unclaimed) to invesitigate Streaker at night, which he did, and Streaker came up Mafia and got lynched. Since then, I have continued a bit on an in-joke with Streaker, like referring to him in Global Chat as "Mafia Scum" and similar.

It was the recent Beginner's Mafia game, if you are inclined to go to the archives and look thru it. You'll see that what I have said here is true.

I also have to say that I don't see any logical connection about voting Mod and being scum, anyway. If it is just based on scum making the same joke in other games, it is a very weak case.

I guess because my speculation did do Town some good in that game (I believe), I thought I would try it again. I am a person who likes puzzles, and it comes naturally to me in a game like this to try to fit the pieces together and come up with something. I have taken pains thruout, tho, to remind everyone that I am only speculating and I am not claiming any of what I have said is actually teh case.

Now, you say I seem to have connected the dots when more experienced players didn't, and I seem to have additional information. The first thing to say about that is that we won't know whether my speculations have been accurate until events unfold. I could be completely off the mark. Second, I have only extrapolated from what we have been given: IB's claim, the fact of a special condition, and the silence of a number of players. Anyone else could have joined the dots in just that way, with only the information that has been posted in the game. It is not a question of experience, but imagination and logic.

This brings me to your third point against me:

I haven't accepted IB's claim at all: my speculation is based upon his claim being true but, as I said above, I have tried to make it clear it is only speculation. I said earlier that there are risks inherent in whatever course we take, this being surprise Mafia, but that I favor a HS lynch because

1) There's already momentum behind this, and we might not be able to reach a consensus on anyone else in time; and

2) HS isn't claiming that Town needs him alive - he more or less has said he is expendable to Town. On the other hand,

3) IB is claiming that HS's survival is dangerous to Town. Also

4) HS's death will tell us something useful about IB - i.e. If HS flips other than survivor, we look hard at IB. But

5) IB's death won't tell us anything about HS - the point of lynching D1 is to gain information, so lynching IB would defeat the purpose of the D1 lynch. Suppose he flips scum - Great! Town has killed scum. But what if he flips 3P lyncher or VT? We're still at square one, that's what - we don't know any more about HS (or anyone else) than we did before.

So, yeah, a vote on HotShot seems logical to me for those reasons, and I stand by it, until something comes to light that undoes that logic.

[AladdinSane]

Also, if you re-read, you'll see I didn't rush into a vote for HS, but waited for him to respond to IB's claim. As I said earlier, if he had counter-claimed that his survial was essential for a Town win, I would be far more reluctant to lynch him. But he didn't claim that.

[pancakemix]

Fuggin' semantics. Meaningless, meaningless says the techer...

One thing I know about IB: once he bites down, he tends to stay put. Obviously he's got his reasons for wanting HS lynched, but asking the same questions over and over isn't going to produce anything. What we have to do now is ask ourselves:

1.) Do we lynch:

A. Hotshot, or
B. IB (more on this to follow)?

and

2.) What can we get done before the deadline?

I feel like 2 is the easier answer: we can discuss question 1. For Hotshot's part, IB's put the pressure on and been extremely vocal about his reasons, but not given up too much. That, and HS is claimed third party who hasn't put up much of a fight. There's a good case to be made for that end.

But how much should we trust IB? His outspokenness on this and the half information only makes his case seem fishy to me. Consistently shouting "I am town" always strikes me as off. Further, why HotShot in particular? Funny how the guy who's going to cause chaos is the one who's on vacation close to the deadline...

I'm just playing devil's advocate here, but I'd caution against the bandwagon moving too quickly here. We have time to consider the facts, let's consider them in full.

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

It was the recent Beginner's Mafia game, if you are inclined to go to the archives and look thru it. You'll see that what I have said here is true.

I believe you. Why are you putting so much thought into building a watertight motive for all your moves? Is this the actions of inexperienced town? No.

1) There's already momentum behind this, and we might not be able to reach a consensus on anyone else in time; and

Why is there momentum? Is it because you have been pushing it alongside IB? Do you accept no blame for this?

2) HS isn't claiming that Town needs him alive - he more or less has said he is expendable to Town. On the other hand,

And?

3) IB is claiming that HS's survival is dangerous to Town. Also

Correction: IB is claiming HS is dangerous, he is not claiming that HS is specifically anti-town.

4) HS's death will tell us something useful about IB - i.e. If HS flips other than survivor, we look hard at IB. But

Great, we learn about one player, I'm overjoyed. What about the 26 others in the game?

5) IB's death won't tell us anything about HS - the point of lynching D1 is to gain information, so lynching IB would defeat the purpose of the D1 lynch. Suppose he flips scum - Great! Town has killed scum. But what if he flips 3P lyncher or VT? We're still at square one, that's what - we don't know any more about HS (or anyone else) than we did before.

Why is it a 2 horse race? I like that you identify that lynching IB is pointless as it doesnt tell us something, but justify lynching Hotshot in point 4 on the basis that it tells us basically nothing.

@Mets - you've never justified why that play is beneficial to town? All I see is it allows you to pretend to be town in all your games. Its cowardly and you're better than that.

fp'd Pancake - Erm why exactly are there only two lynches available? I count 27 available to me and eight days to convince you all.

[Metsfanmax]

@pcm: why do you think the choice is only between lynching HotShot and IB? Do you give no credence to the possibility that HS is no threat to town, and that we should be looking elsewhere for a lynch candidate?

[Metsfanmax]

@Mets - you've never justified why that play is beneficial to town? All I see is it allows you to pretend to be town in all your games. Its cowardly and you're better than that.

In other games I have made it abundantly clear that D1 is a crapshoot, usually with worse than random chance odds of lynching scum. Indicating confident scum reads is therefore usually counterproductive to town, contrary to common opinion. So the question isn't "Mets, why aren't you helping town," the question is, "everyone else, why are you hurting town?"

[degaston]

3) IB is claiming that HS's survival is dangerous to Town. Also

Correction: IB is claiming HS is dangerous, he is not claiming that HS is specifically anti-town.

Have you read any of IB's posts?

The person is ANTI TOWN. I do not believe mafia.

With only needing 11 and seeing how many are present I suggest we try and gather other information as I believe the person being considered for lynch is mafia. ANTI TOWN Yes. Mafia no.

I will say this. The person who is a threat to town, who will cause harm to town may or may not be mafia. Definitely anti town.

I can say this as well. I do not need to be involved with specific lynches. It does not have to happen today or even tommorow but as the game wears on eventually it WILL need to be addressed. All your doing is giving more potential kills or havoc to anti town.

How could you have missed those?

[degaston]

I'm not saying that I necessarily believe IB, and if he was lynched, and turned out to be scum, that would put some doubt into my mind as to whether HotShot is really anti-town. But HotShot hasn't put up much of a defense, so at this point I'd still lean towards a lynching him over IB.

I'm not real happy that IB has kind of sucked all the air out of the room, and made it very difficult to talk about anything else, but something may come up if we don't rush into a lynch while there is plenty of time left in the day.