Wow, I seem to have become a magnet for everyone's pet peeves about the auto-tournament engine. I suppose I could just say, "I don't control the auto-tourney engine, I'm just an end-user" which would be literally true, but also a bit of a cop-out. After all, I am the biggest and most enthusiastic user of the engine, and I am also BW's number one fan on the site, so I suppose I need to be able to take the heat.
First things first:
stealth99 wrote:I am one of the biggest supporters of this Great War Venture and I commend the people who are volunteering their time to bring me this enjoyment. Thanks so much guys and I hope this helps you make it even bigger and better.
Thanks, stealth! You have been one of our biggest supporters, and I appreciate that. Military history is one of my passions; conquer club tournaments are another, the Great War series brings them both together. Still, it's the compliments I get from you and people like you that keeps me going!
Captn B wrote:Thanks to all the vols and management who provide an excellent experience for us!

On behalf of the Great War team, I thank you..

stealth99 wrote:THE ISSUE - Players are being eliminated from too many Great War Tournaments, with identical win/loss records as player(s) who are advancing to the next round.
BIGGER ISSUE - When the problem occurs in the final round, players are eliminated with identical records as the player who outright wins the entire event.
This does not happen in non-automated tournaments.
Well, it does happen sometimes in non-automated tournaments, depending on how their tie-breaking rules are written. Still, I'll grant you that it happens less often.
[spoiler=extended version of that answer]As I've said in other threads, there's no guarantee of "fairness" no matter what you do. CC is not a deterministic game. Games are settled by skill, dice, drop, cards, and turn order. Four of those five inputs are random, so no matter what you do you will have a very luck-driven result. I try to create tournaments with a sufficient number of games that the various luck inputs cancel out and the best man wins, but I know I'm only partially successful at that. Ultimately people want to have fun, and if the game load is too ridiculously high the tourney becomes more work than play, so we try to strike a balance between a sufficiently large number of games to be statistically robust, and a sufficiently small number of games that it's still fun to play. Different people have different opinions on where to peg those numbers, so we've had everything from 4-game tournaments to 60-game tournaments in this series.
Most TOs will add a tiebreaker round if their tournament results in a tie. The auto-tournament engine is a little less flexible. We have to program in a fixed number of rounds, and it can't be changed. I understand that some people would like tiebreaker rounds to be added dynamically, and while I would like to see that option added, I doubt very much if we'll get it soon, because it seems like a very big change to the basic simplicity of the engine. As both an organiser and a player, I don't think it's as big a problem as you think. Basically I just look at it as an aggregate number of games. Adding a tiebreaker just creates the illusion of greater fairness. If I've already played 25 highly-luck-dependent games, playing a 26th won't really prove much. It's a bit of an improvement in the statistical robustness of the result, but only a bit. So, yeah: dynamically generated tiebreaker rounds are on my wish list to pester BW with (You'd be surprised how many things he's already fixed about auto-tourneys. They've come a lot farther than most people realize.) We'll get there eventually, but I don't think it's among the more urgent changes to make.[/spoiler]
stealth99 wrote:Are we not paying a huge price for this automation?
Short answer: No. We lose some flexibility, but we gain volume and a
lot of efficiency. There's a cost, but relative to the benefit, it's not too high.
[spoiler=more complete version of that answer]We pay some price for automation. There are many, many things that auto-tourneys just can't do. There's a lot of creative rules in community tournaments that would just be overwhelming to try to program into a blunt instrument like the auto-tourney engine. That's one of the (several) reasons why we can't just go full-auto and why we will always have community tournaments.
There's a lot we get in return for that price. For one thing, volume. We've had something like 175 tourneys in the Great War series. (50 templates. 175 tournaments, counting iterations separately.) If those all had to be run manually, it just wouldn't happen. You've run tournaments, you know how much time can be involved. It would be a full-time job to run all those manually, not something you could do with an all-volunteer group like we have.
But we gain something even bigger: efficiency. Twenty minutes after the last game in a round has finished, the auto-tourney engine has put out the next round of games. Look through the Ongoing tournaments sub-forum and see how many complaints you find, about slow updates, overdue updates, when is the next game coming out, our game is missing a player and hasn't started, etc., etc. TOs get busy, they can't find the time to put out the next round, and momentum is lost. Sometimes it's been so long since an update that you forget you were in a tourney.
True story: two nights ago, I actually got caught up and put out a bunch of games in some of my manually-run tournaments. (Some have been waiting a just a few days, others were waiting three weeks.) The reason? My work tonight got cancelled, so I was able to stay home and update tourneys. If I had gone to work as originally scheduled, those tourneys would have waited until Saturday at the very least, maybe longer. Meanwhile, the players wait, and any sense of urgency passes out of them.
TOs get busy. Sometimes there's a delay of a few days before the next round comes out, other times it's weeks, or maybe months, or maybe the TO abandons it altogether. The auto-tourney engine doesn't sleep, it doesn't have to go to work, it doesn't make scoring mistakes because the wife is yelling in the background, it doesn't get sick, it doesn't get bored and abandon the tourney.
That's only half the equation. The other is players. All that waiting and worrying. Is everybody going to accept their invites, or not? Are you going to have to look for replacements because somebody went AWOL? Long delays while you send multiple invites, wait for players to accept, wall them or PM them and wait for a response. More delays while you look for replacement players. More people lose interest while their game doesn't start. And every TO's worst nightmare -- when somebody accepts some of their invites, but not all, and decides half-way through a round that the game load is too high, and he won't play. Now you're really screwed. You have to replace him in the games he won't join, but you can't replace him in the games he did join, because they already started. The auto-tourney engine doesn't have that problem. It puts people in their games. Boom. No waiting for invites, no wondering, just pop them in and the game starts. Immediately.
If someone doesn't renew their premium and can't be added, the engine automatically reduces an 8-player game to a 7-player game and carries on with the other 7. No pissing around, no PMs to the players ("Are you renewing your premium? The tournament is on hold while we wait for you to accept your invite.") No days wasted waiting while the player promises he'll renew his premium at the end of the week and then breaks that promise. He's dropped, the game is recast with fewer players, the show goes on.
It's amazing when you compare manual tournaments with autotournaments. It's not a small difference in efficiency. It's enormous. Maybe twofold, maybe threefold. Auto-tourneys of roughly the same size and shape finish sometimes two and sometimes even three times faster than manual equivalents. From a player's point of view, that's a huge gain in momentum and being able to sustain the sense of excitement.
By coincidence, I was just having a long talk with DoomYoshi about this just a couple nights ago. He was talking about the Conquer Club Olympics, and the night-and-day difference between the autos and the manual tournaments. The autos all finished on schedule, the event was still live and interest was high. And then there was the big multi-month delay while the manual tournaments wrapped up, and meanwhile everybody lost interest, and the event became old news, and by the time the final results were announced nobody cared. Pretty much the manual tourneys took a very popular event with very intense interest, and by dragging it out, destroyed its impact. They weren't bad tourneys. I'm proud of the one I contributed. Still, the inevitable delays in manual tournaments took place, the event ran three months behind schedule, and that was that. Doom says if he does the Olympics again he definitely won't have any manual tournaments at all.
I'm certainly no enemy of manual tournaments. With almost 100 manual tournaments to my credit, thousands of hours invested in them, and three years of writing about tourneys for the newsletter, I think you know that I love the manual tournaments, too. The manual tournaments are perfect for creative rules, tourneys with complicated special scoring formulas, tournaments with creative components, special forms of player interaction, and so on. But for simple WYSIWYG format tourneys, auto is the way to go.
So, is the price too high? We have a significant loss of flexibility. We have a huge gain in efficiency. I think the price is not too high.[/spoiler]
How do you think anybody feels when they play really well and come really close, but not quite close enough? How do you think a hockey team feels when they play to a perfect tie, and then it comes down to a shootout and one wacky shot that should have gone in but took a crazy spin along the way? How do you think a soccer team feels when they have an identical record as someone else but are just one less in their goal differential, probably because of some flukey against-the-wind miss that should have been a goal?
Of course it's a bummer, but unless you want to redefine the very nature of competition, it isn't going away. The very point of a tournament is that it gradually eliminates people and distills things down to just one winner. There's always going to be people who played really well and came really close but didn't quite make the cut.
If all tournaments were 1v1, it would be easy enough to to make them all odd-numbered elimination brackets and guarantee that ties are impossible. Which we mostly do in all-1v1 tourneys. But once you have multiplayer games, preventing ties is nearly impossible. Almost every structure will allow a possibility of multiple players ending up with identical records and needing a tie-breaking rule. The exception is the simplest multiplayer tourneys where only one player advances per game, like I did with
Franz Ferdinand, but that is a very restrictive formula and would get pretty dull if all tournaments ran that way.
stealth99 wrote:[The latter part of the Masurian tournament has the exact same problem but much, much worse. [b]The 2 player final is a best of 4?? How can this be? Why an even number? Are we setting up for disaster before we begin?
Well, that's one of the James Ker tourneys, and since you've been playing the Great War tournaments since the beginning, you probably noticed that James has this quirk of putting an even number of games in the finale. I found it disconcerting at first, but eventually I've come around and I see what he's trying to accomplish. Basically I think James wants the regular season
to matter.Haven't you ever wondered what it would be like in professional sports or whatever, if the regular season
actually mattered instead of becoming irrelevant once the playoffs begin? I mean, it's ridiculous. A team in baseball will play 168 games, and that's just to get them into the playoffs, but once they get there, all those games go completely out the window! What a total fucking waste! Wouldn't it be cool if the final score factored in both your performance in the playoffs
and in the regular season?
So that, I think, is why James does these even-numbered finales. Because by allowing the possibility of a tie in the finals, it means that the winner might be crowned not because of his performance in the relatively small number of games in the final, but because of his performance in the tournament overall. And that, I think, is a pretty cool idea.
But, if you absolutely hate it, don't play James' tournaments. You'll be happy to know that he's resigning and we probably won't see any more of his tourneys for a while. Personally I think it's a big loss. His quirky tournament structures added some much-needed variety to the rather predictable styles of the other Great War tournament authors.
stealth99 wrote:We know before this one even starts, that the winner may be declared based simply on who joined first.
That's theoretically possible, of course, but
extremely unlikely. It would require a remarkable triple coincidence:
- The two players would first have to be tied in the Finals. That's a 37% chance. Fairly likely to happen.
- They would then have to be tied in the tournament overall. The exact probability of that requires some integrals that I just can't face crunching right now, but as a ballpark estimate, looking at some of the larger tournaments, I'd say it happens less than 1/4 of the time. 0.25 x .37 brings us to a probability less than 8.5 %. (If any math whiz wants to crunch the numbers and post the exact probability that the top 2 players will win exactly the same number of 12 times 12-player games, I'd appreciate it.)
- As a final coincidence, they would have to get past the second tie-break and have won all their games in the same number of rounds. Again, I can't do the math and give you a precise probability (and I'm happy to hear from anyone who can) but I would ballpark that again as being something in the range of 1/4 of the time or less. So now we're down to a cumulative probability of .25 x .25 x .37, or about 2.3 %
So, like you said, it could happen. I'm willing to bet that it won't. Literally.
If any one of the Second Masurian tournaments is settled by the third tie-breaking criterion, instead of the first or second, I'll buy you 3 months premium. You don't even have to reciprocate on this bet. I'm fairly sure that the 2.3% chance won't happen, but if it does, I'll live with it.
Captn B wrote:I also fully agree that the CC's Tie-breaking Rules for Automated Tournaments need to reflect skill by winners, rather than by an arbitrary time of who may have stumbled onto and joined a tournament first.
I highlighted "by winners" in the quote above, because it is significant. We're talking mainly about non-winners. The only time we see the precedence (third tie-breaker) come into play a lot is in early rounds, when there are multiple players with zero or very few wins, and only some of them need to be eliminated. For instance, if the tournament structure calls for six players to be eliminated, and there are eight players with zero wins, we need some method to decide which of them will win the wild card and advance despite their lack of a win. For that, a relatively arbitrary measurement like that is very necessary. There really isn't any data to work with at that point. Once the tourney has advanced a bit, you can talk about win percentage being the most common tie-break. It's only those early rounds where precedence plays a big role, and why should it not? Remember, we're not talking about "winners" here. We're talking about people with zero wins who are getting a chance to advance despite being winless. It's not that the six eliminated players are losing anything, it's the two that are allowed to advance despite being winless who are winning a free pass.
In the Finals the third tie-break is almost never seen. As you see in my response to stealth99, the precise probability of the Finals being decided by precedence is very hard to calculate precisely, but even in a tournament like Second Masurian which has an extraordinarily high probability of a final-round tie, the chance of precedence being a factor is about 2%. For most tournaments, which have odd number of games in the final round, and often many more rounds, I would put it as vanishingly small.
In a 20-round tournament like
Race to the Sea, I would peg the probability of it being decided by precedence as effectively zilch.
Overall, if you balance out the tourneys with a high chance of a final round tie and those with a low chance of a final round tie, again the math gets ridiculously difficult, but I'm willing to bet that overall it's on the order of one in a thousand, and anyone who wants to do the math is welcome to come and prove me wrong.
Just as a bit of perspective, I checked some sports sites. Here's the tie-breaking rules for the World Cup of soccer:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/soccer-insider/wp/2014/06/23/world-cup-tiebreakers-explained/Here’s how FIFA will break group-stage ties, lifted straight from the organization’s book of regulations.
1. Greatest number of points obtained in all group matches.
2. Goal difference in all group matches.
3. Greatest number of goals scored in all group matches.
4. Greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned.
5. Goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned.
6. Greater number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned.
7. Drawing of lots by the FIFA Organizing Committee.
So their criteria are much deeper than ours, but in the end, there still has to be some arbitrary method (drawing of lots) because no matter how you structure a tourney, their will come a time when you have teams with records that are identical in every way. (Again, as above, there are obvious exceptions: bracket tournaments that are exclusively 1v1, and multiplayer tournaments where only one player per game advances, and possibly some other structures. But overall, it's a pretty short list. Almost all structures allow the possibility of identical records.)
Captn B wrote:That gives the TO the best advantage if he joins it just after he posts it. lol Not very fair.
That's my cheating you're worried about, since I'm the only one who schedules all the Great War tourneys. Regardless of all the different authors of all the different Great War tournaments, I'm the one who does the final proofread and releases them for launch. So, if you're worried I might be cheating, feel free to monitor my performance in these tournaments.
All new Great War tournaments are released @1500 CC time on the scheduled day, so that people who are worried about this can set their alarms and plan to be online at 1500. This is common knowledge. So much for my big advantage. (Actually around 1520. The auto-tourney engine takes about 20 minutes per sweep, and it launches new tournaments at the end of the sweep, so a 1500 launch time is usually actually around 1520.)
Once the initial iteration of a tourney has filled, the next iteration will launch about 20 minutes later, during the engine's next sweep. Anybody can see this by watching the counter go down whenever they go to their Central Command. The tourney will say how many spots remain to be filled (4 spots left... 2 spots left, 0 spots left). Once it says 0 spots left, you know (if the schedule hasn't been exhausted) that the next iteration will launch in 20 minutes or less, so if you're really worried about it, get ready.
Bottom line, though, is that it's a tempest in a teapot. The way to win the tournaments is to win the games. If you don't win the games then the tie-break might keep you alive for an extra round, but it won't give you the tourney, no matter how much paranoia revolves around this issue. As long as you're winning the games, the only tie-breaks you really need to worry about are the first and second.
If you're still worried, then only join the tourneys that have a large number of games in the final, where a tie becomes less likely. That's all I can say. I think I've done pretty well at providing a tremendous variety of tournaments in this series, so if one structure doesn't suit you, just wait a few days and there will be a very different one.