Double Fanucci Mafia (4/14) Endgame

[rishaed]

And yet strike, you defend him before any pressure can be applied.

un vote
vote rishaed

Note, I assume hotshot next post will involve an excuse, I'll call it scummy now.

Wonderful,he thoughtbloody wonderful.

[rishaed]

"What is it? Did the man insult you?"
If sarcasm indicated Mafia, I'd be hanged ten times over by now. vote Mtamburini
Also don't like the wagon, its too quick and reeeks of scum.
Yes, he could smell something. A distant, lingering scent that seemed out of place.

[NoSurvivors]

"What is it? Did the man insult you?"
If sarcasm indicated Mafia, I'd be hanged ten times over by now. vote Mtamburini
Also don't like the wagon, its too quick and reeeks of scum.
Yes, he could smell something. A distant, lingering scent that seemed out of place.

My thoughts on the whole rishead discussion:

So he can post with words of his own, but he chooses to post quotes from the same book over and over. I am really confused. I feel like if we pressured him, we might get whether he is being stupid or if he has a role... but I dont know. It's also possible that we have a similar role to that of in the game warewolf-- which is called the "tanner". The tanner wants to die. I dont know if that is the case for rishead but it seems to me like he wants to be lynched. Dont hold me to it, I am not sure if there is such a role in mafia, but I do know mafia and warewolf are similar.

[Army of GOD]

ok, I'm back in action

I have tomorrow off so I'll be able to go over everything then

[TA1LGUNN3R]

I say this in every single game: D1 lynches are no better than random and are likely actually worse from town's perspective, because most people vastly overrate their "scumhunting" skills. Someday folks will listen

Yes. Thank you.

vote storrzerg for avoiding my question.

-Tails

[HotShot53]

Since the whole discussion is happening again, "is a day 1 lynch good since it's worse odds than just RNG, should we just do a RNG lynch or no lynch?"

As Wing says

I'd also point out that it massively misses out on the information that a D1 town lynch comes with and helps the discussion on D2.

Yes, a day 1 lynch is often a mislynch... but the arguments everyone makes for/against that lynch helps in night 1 actions and for future analysis. A RNG lynch wouldn't do that. That is why day 1 lynch is better than no lynch, which is better than RNG lynch. (wing's original point)

And yet strike, you defend him before any pressure can be applied.

un vote
vote rishaed

Note, I assume hotshot next post will involve an excuse, I'll call it scummy now.

Well, call it an excuse or reason or whatever. This was my first 2 day weekend not working in months, so I actually had plans to do things not online.

Just because rishaed is posting weird, I don't see anything scummy in it, and I agree with what I understand of his posts. So he would not be on my lynching list for today.

So far I've been town reading a lot of people it seems... I will have to reread tomorrow to see if reading the whole thread at once reveals inconsistencies or something that could by scummy by someone.

[Streaker]

Mets - You appear to be arguing that lynching Town is better than no lynch.

I say this in every single game: D1 lynches are no better than random and are likely actually worse from town's perspective, because most people vastly overrate their "scumhunting" skills. Someday folks will listen!

Are you serious? Ok you destroyed wing's argument about the 'no lynch' but I can't believe you still consider a D1 lynch inferior to an RNG lynch. In fact, it's not even about scumhunting skills unless someone messes up. Those skills usually don't come in until D2. Next game I host I'll put in a rule that D1 will consist of an RNG based lynch, let's see how far you get with that.

I am serious. IB wants to go after Rishaed because he is posting strangely. Alright. Tell me what is intrinsically scummy about him posting like this? Nothing that I can see it just appears to be a PR aka post restriction. I am not going to ignore Rishaed completely but I dont condone a case based on him posting in a strange manner when I feel there are more legitimate leads.

If you look at what he posts, he seems to express agreement, disagreement and questions like everyone else just less able to do it in a direct manner.

But if rishaed can't express a statement in a way that town can actually understand, then he'd be a reasonable candidate for the 'random' D1 lynch if nothing better is around. (And right now, there's not many great leads.) If we're going to lose someone, might as well lose the person who is going to have a hard time helping us find scum.

Premature statement. I consider it very unlikely for a mafia player to draw that kind of attention to himself. I believe he is on a post restriction, like I mentioned before.
I'd like to give him a chance, and see if it will be usefull for us.

So youd rather go with the easy lynch than try to interpret his posts.

Exactly. I'm town reading strike.

Finally, Mets, your post about success rates with D1 lynches. If you want anyone to take that post seriously, you'd have to make an analyses of how many games a mafia was lynched on D2 or D3 or whatever based on discussion on D1. A mislynch on D1 is perfectly acceptable, if enough discussion came from it. It's the foundation of mid and late game. A random lynch on D1 gives you nothing to work with the rest of the game.

Going through all your posts this game I've come to the conclusion that you really don't care about scumhunting (on D1). Majority of posts is you defending your statement of random on D1, with the last couple of posts considering grammar. How is any of this usefull to town?

Unvote, Vote Mets

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

You had this argument in your last game unless you can back up your assertion your argument is meaning less.

IB talking about Mets. What role was Mets playing in said game?

[StorrZerg]

"What is it? Did the man insult you?"
If sarcasm indicated Mafia, I'd be hanged ten times over by now. vote Mtamburini
Also don't like the wagon, its too quick and reeeks of scum.
Yes, he could smell something. A distant, lingering scent that seemed out of place.

So you vote for the person who founded the case, yet you say the wagon reeks of scum but don't vote for someone wagoning on...

as for your other point, i don't see what you mean by it. Some people do get sarcastic when they are mafia, in attempt to throw off heat. Some people are always sarcastic, thus the read would be null, tambs point is that hotshot gets sarcastic when he is mafia.

Also, you have a minimal influence on the game right now in the direction of a lynch. Rereading your posts, sure you have spoken defensively of some, called out someone you think is mafia, yet your vote on mtamb is weak, and are lacking in furthering discussion in the game.

[Metsfanmax]

Mets - You appear to be arguing that lynching Town is better than no lynch.

I say this in every single game: D1 lynches are no better than random and are likely actually worse from town's perspective, because most people vastly overrate their "scumhunting" skills. Someday folks will listen!

Are you serious? Ok you destroyed wing's argument about the 'no lynch' but I can't believe you still consider a D1 lynch inferior to an RNG lynch.

The numbers don't lie -- town are not better at catching scum than an RNG on D1. As for the question of whether I'd actually prefer a random number generator to choose a D1 lynch -- I don't know! I'm not sure what the right answer is. Obviously I don't want to just take a townie away for no valid reason. However, sometimes people can generate really bad cases D1. (It's happened to me a couple times over the last year, even.) So the RNG lynch might actually help us compared to the lynch that town did make. But this might be offset by the leads and cases that are generated in later days. It is often hard to know until many days later. I find the argument plausible that we should probably lynch on D1 even in the face of little data -- indeed, that's what I meant when I advocated D1 'random' lynches, not actual RNG lynches -- but I'm not very confident in it.

I always mainly try to make the point that people should soften their expectations about how good they actually are at this game. I don't profess to know what the right answer is in every case; indeed, my point is that it's basically impossible to know. I just want to make it clear that town should not pretend like they are especially good at D1 scumhunting. Anyone who thinks they know what to do on D1 is vastly overrating themselves. Accept your ignorance, don't revel in false knowledge.

Premature statement. I consider it very unlikely for a mafia player to draw that kind of attention to himself. I believe he is on a post restriction, like I mentioned before.

My argument was premised on the fact that he is on a post restriction, and therefore we're going to have to go through multiple days of figuring out what the f*ck Robert Jordan is saying. Not relishing the prospect, but there's a reason I haven't voted him yet.

Going through all your posts this game I've come to the conclusion that you really don't care about scumhunting (on D1). Majority of posts is you defending your statement of random on D1, with the last couple of posts considering grammar. How is any of this usefull to town?

At least I've actually posted on D1. Where the hell have you been?

[StorrZerg]

I say this in every single game: D1 lynches are no better than random and are likely actually worse from town's perspective, because most people vastly overrate their "scumhunting" skills. Someday folks will listen

Yes. Thank you.

vote storrzerg for avoiding my question.

-Tails

I'm avoiding you because our discussion has gotten off topic. It has gotten heated, and it isn't productive for town.
Secondly, if you want me to respond to a specific question, you might quote it. I've avoided many questions from you.

[StorrZerg]

@mets thoughts on rishaed and hotshot kthx

[Metsfanmax]

@mets thoughts on rishaed and hotshot kthx

rishaed: I get town-leaning vibes from the parts of his posts that I can understand. I kind of agree with Streaker that it would be strange for mafia to have such an ostentatious post restriction -- but let's not forget who our host is. So right now I won't cry if he gets lynched on D1 but I'm not voting for him.

hotshot: I have the same feeling that mtam did about hotshot's first couple of posts, and I'm suspicious of how most of his posts have statements ending in "lol," as if he's just trying to play it cool. Still, I just don't think he's posted enough for anyone's case on him to be very strong.

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

You had this argument in your last game unless you can back up your assertion your argument is meaning less.

Below quote is from Mets in Streakers Vanilla game at the start when Mets was Vanilla Townie.

Normally I am not super enthusiastic about random D1 lynches because we usually learn more from what happens on N1, but in a all-vanilla game the vast majority of our verified information will come from how people flip after a lynch. So I will be interested in having a lynch.

[StorrZerg]

Not interested in lynching wing any more.

[Streaker]

You had this argument in your last game unless you can back up your assertion your argument is meaning less.

Below quote is from Mets in Streakers Vanilla game at the start when Mets was Vanilla Townie.

Normally I am not super enthusiastic about random D1 lynches because we usually learn more from what happens on N1, but in a all-vanilla game the vast majority of our verified information will come from how people flip after a lynch. So I will be interested in having a lynch.

Nice catch. Now vote Mets please thx.

Not interested in lynching wing any more.

Excellent. Then switch your vote.

[StorrZerg]

Yeah not lynching mets

reread what he says, with context of what this game is and what last game was

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

You had this argument in your last game unless you can back up your assertion your argument is meaning less.

Below quote is from Mets in Streakers Vanilla game at the start when Mets was Vanilla Townie.

Normally I am not super enthusiastic about random D1 lynches because we usually learn more from what happens on N1, but in a all-vanilla game the vast majority of our verified information will come from how people flip after a lynch. So I will be interested in having a lynch.

Nice catch. Now vote Mets please thx.

I'm sorry. Can you explain why that makes Mets Mafia? All I see is a player who has a strange set of beliefs about D!.

[Army of GOD]

ok, caught up


I don't think rishaed would intentionally draw attention to himself if he was scum. I don't think it's a PR, I think it's just him being...well...him.


other than that, I agree that Mets' basic argument. Everyone overrates their own scum hunting ability (I think I said this in the last game I was in) and so I don't put much weight on tells.

though, the inherent problem with a random lynch is that we don't learn much in terms of play and whatnot. There's a lot of back and forth that we'd miss if we did something completely random such as scum defending other scum. I guess that presupposes that people are good enough to pick up on that, but whatever.


I like the HotShot vote. It seems low risk and since sides have already been taken (virus defending Hotshot)

we don't have much of anything to go on else though.

vote Hotshot


the mtam/Storr circle jerk is kind of weird, but let's play that out a little more.

[NoSurvivors]

Mets - You appear to be arguing that lynching Town is better than no lynch.

I say this in every single game: D1 lynches are no better than random and are likely actually worse from town's perspective, because most people vastly overrate their "scumhunting" skills. Someday folks will listen!

Are you serious? Ok you destroyed wing's argument about the 'no lynch' but I can't believe you still consider a D1 lynch inferior to an RNG lynch.

The numbers don't lie -- town are not better at catching scum than an RNG on D1. As for the question of whether I'd actually prefer a random number generator to choose a D1 lynch -- I don't know! I'm not sure what the right answer is. Obviously I don't want to just take a townie away for no valid reason. However, sometimes people can generate really bad cases D1. (It's happened to me a couple times over the last year, even.) So the RNG lynch might actually help us compared to the lynch that town did make. But this might be offset by the leads and cases that are generated in later days. It is often hard to know until many days later. I find the argument plausible that we should probably lynch on D1 even in the face of little data -- indeed, that's what I meant when I advocated D1 'random' lynches, not actual RNG lynches -- but I'm not very confident in it.

I can't tell if you are deliberately trying to derail the conversation from actual scumhunting or if you are just completely missing the point. I am not an expert by any means in Mafia but what I gather is this... Ready? Ok:

A lynch based on the town's votes gets more discussion going day 2 than a random lynch would. It isn't about what the % is on flipping mafia, but rather on what said person flips, and night actions done. We can then go back, analyze posts from D1 and try to figure out who is scummy.

With that, unvote, vote mets because of this stupid idiotic arguing. I still think hotshot has somewhat of a case but I honestly dont think mets is as dense as he is portraying himself right now.

[Metsfanmax]

Mets - You appear to be arguing that lynching Town is better than no lynch.

I say this in every single game: D1 lynches are no better than random and are likely actually worse from town's perspective, because most people vastly overrate their "scumhunting" skills. Someday folks will listen!

Are you serious? Ok you destroyed wing's argument about the 'no lynch' but I can't believe you still consider a D1 lynch inferior to an RNG lynch.

The numbers don't lie -- town are not better at catching scum than an RNG on D1. As for the question of whether I'd actually prefer a random number generator to choose a D1 lynch -- I don't know! I'm not sure what the right answer is. Obviously I don't want to just take a townie away for no valid reason. However, sometimes people can generate really bad cases D1. (It's happened to me a couple times over the last year, even.) So the RNG lynch might actually help us compared to the lynch that town did make. But this might be offset by the leads and cases that are generated in later days. It is often hard to know until many days later. I find the argument plausible that we should probably lynch on D1 even in the face of little data -- indeed, that's what I meant when I advocated D1 'random' lynches, not actual RNG lynches -- but I'm not very confident in it.

I can't tell if you are deliberately trying to derail the conversation from actual scumhunting or if you are just completely missing the point. I am not an expert by any means in Mafia but what I gather is this... Ready? Ok:

A lynch based on the town's votes gets more discussion going day 2 than a random lynch would. It isn't about what the % is on flipping mafia, but rather on what said person flips, and night actions done. We can then go back, analyze posts from D1 and try to figure out who is scummy.

With that, unvote, vote mets because of this stupid idiotic arguing. I still think hotshot has somewhat of a case but I honestly dont think mets is as dense as he is portraying himself right now.

OK so 1) I'm not the one who keeps this argument alive, y'all are and 2) go back and read my post, specifically the part where I acknowledge this point by saying "But this might be offset by the leads and cases that are generated in later days.."

[TA1LGUNN3R]

I say this in every single game: D1 lynches are no better than random and are likely actually worse from town's perspective, because most people vastly overrate their "scumhunting" skills. Someday folks will listen

Yes. Thank you.

vote storrzerg for avoiding my question.

-Tails

I'm avoiding you because our discussion has gotten off topic. It has gotten heated, and it isn't productive for town.
Secondly, if you want me to respond to a specific question, you might quote it. I've avoided many questions from you.

We have a double standard which you have propagated:

I wished to use a general technique to forward the game. You have criticized it for being invalid.

You have put forward the random lynch idea to "generate discussion," i.e. you were trying to advance the game, but in truth didn't support such a venture yourself.

As I became a discration from this;

Storr why did you suggest a random lynch? Like most you have since agreed that it is a bad idea.

Generates discussion

Therefore, we have a situation where you are seeking to pin others but the same rules don't apply to you. 1) I hate double standards and 2) that's classic scumming.

-Tails

[mtamburini]

Is hotshot really not dead yet? Everything else really bores me, Ive read a few things on mets I could be swayed to go that way too but I think ive got hotshot dead to rights.

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

I'm not sure he is even the leader at the moment.

I dont have the same confidence as others that he is mafia, but I do think a far number of players have put their cards on the table with reference to Hotshot, that it may be a worthwhile lynch to see which way he flips.

[StorrZerg]

Is hotshot really not dead yet? Everything else really bores me, Ive read a few things on mets I could be swayed to go that way too but I think ive got hotshot dead to rights.

Don't be bad, the cases on mets are bad lol

And he seems more townie atm.