Double Fanucci Mafia (4/14) Endgame

[StorrZerg]

Wing made an argument, and one of the assumptions made in that argument was the comment "no lynch is better than random lynch." By showing that one of the assumptions was wrong, I showed why his whole argument was incorrect. If Wing didn't want to defend this claim in absolute terms, he shouldn't have made this claim. It's absolutely absurd to blame me when he's the one who made the faulty argument. I'm just the one who pointed it out.

I stand by my argument. Chances are that there are more Town than Mafia. Why would killing a town be better than no lynch? It wouldnt. Sure we might hit mafia, but lets be honest we wont. We dont have any vanilla town and I assume there are certain town roles which we really dont want to be randomly lynched D1.

good point we can lynch strike then.

Since his comment about a possible power role is lollolokloolooolooolol

MTAMB WHAT SAY YOU.

or we still on hotshot? either is fine.

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

Which comment by Strike?

[StorrZerg]

Which comment by Strike?

Rishaed seems to have some kind of PR. Its not convenient but I can read what hes saying more or less if I look closely. Until he actually says something that strikes me as scummy or he looks to be the only one with a pr, I am not concerned at this moment.

The point of the post now seems even more so to get us to back of Rishaed.

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

Doesn't PR mean post restriction in his post, and not power role?

[StorrZerg]

Doesn't PR mean post restriction in his post, and not power role?

It could, he would be the first person to use PR as post restriction in over a year or more on this forum i'd say.

Rereading, he indicates yes that he meant post restriction. Less weird.

Still strange to think that he is under Post restriction of kind.

[Iron Butterfly]

Rishaed can play Coherently
He isnt under a spell, or being forced because of his role.

What makes you say this?

Mets - You appear to be arguing that lynching Town is better than no lynch.

I say this in every single game: D1 lynches are no better than random and are likely actually worse from town's perspective, because most people vastly overrate their "scumhunting" skills. Someday folks will listen!

You took the quote out of context and then defended it when it was noted that you took it out of context.

I didn't take the quote out of context. Wing made an argument, and one of the assumptions made in that argument was the comment "no lynch is better than random lynch." By showing that one of the assumptions was wrong, I showed why his whole argument was incorrect. If Wing didn't want to defend this claim in absolute terms, he shouldn't have made this claim. It's absolutely absurd to blame me when he's the one who made the faulty argument. I'm just the one who pointed it out.

Does a faulty argument make one mafia or anti town or is it just a faulty argument?

You had this argument in your last game unless you can back up your assertion your argument is meaning less.

In baseball a 330 hitter hits a ball a little under 1 third of the time. Does that make him a bad hitter? Same with mafia and scum hunting.

[DoomYoshi]

Vote Count
rishaed (1) - Iron Butterfly
WingCmdr (2) - metsfanmax, Tails
TeeGee (1) - Streaker
Streaker (3) - TeeGee, virus90, Wing
mtamburini (1) - rishaed
Hotshot (3) - mtamburini, NoSurvivors, StorrZerg
Not Voting (2) - Army of GOD, strike wolf, Hotshot53

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

[Metsfanmax]

You had this argument in your last game unless you can back up your assertion your argument is meaning less.

In baseball a 330 hitter hits a ball a little under 1 third of the time. Does that make him a bad hitter? Same with mafia and scum hunting.

Went through the first page of the Mafia Archives. Considered all games with the following conditions:

(i) There was a Day 1 lynch and I could figure out what the mafia/town ratio was
(ii) The game was almost all town/mafia (i.e. not a heavy third party presence)
(iii) There weren't other really weird considerations (basically, none of Fircoal's games)
(iv) Not explicitly a newbie game
(v) Game had at least 10 players (small number statistics starts to dominate below about a sample size of 10*)

This gave me a dataset of 16 games (see spoiler for data). Of those 16 games, in 3 of them, mafia were lynched on D1, for a town success rate of 18.75%. The average mafia ratio in all games was 23.5%. So, town were actually a bit worse than just using an RNG (though this deviation is more or less within the error bars for a dataset of this size -- we could get that down by using a larger sample but I have run out of patience for this). Therefore I have absolutely no confidence in the idea that town can collaborate effectively on D1.

Spoiler

Name of Game -- Mafia/Total -- Who was lynched on D1

Streaker's Second Mafia -- 3/12 -- Mafia
PYP Mafia -- 5/21 -- Town
Balance Not Included -- 3/12 -- Mafia
Whitechapel Murderer -- 3/15 -- Town
Game of Thrones -- 6/18 -- Town
Village of Secrets -- 3/15 -- Town
GON 3 -- 4/15 -- Town
Jonty's Mad Mafia -- 3/15 -- Town
Emotions Mafia -- 3/10 -- Town
GON 2 -- 5/19 -- Town
Valkyria Chronicles -- 4/20 -- Town
GON 1 -- 4/14 -- Town
Space Mafia -- 3/12 -- Town
Darker Shade of Black -- 4/14 -- Town
CYOC II -- 4/17 -- Mafia

*I found two games with <10 players, one was a 9-player game with a town lynch and the other a 7 player game with a mafia lynch, if these were included the town success rate becomes 22.2% and the mafia ratio becomes 23.7% (so the story doesn't really change).

[rishaed]

One final warning: don't play the mod, play the game.

Nynaeve sniffed.

[mtamburini]

Wing made an argument, and one of the assumptions made in that argument was the comment "no lynch is better than random lynch." By showing that one of the assumptions was wrong, I showed why his whole argument was incorrect. If Wing didn't want to defend this claim in absolute terms, he shouldn't have made this claim. It's absolutely absurd to blame me when he's the one who made the faulty argument. I'm just the one who pointed it out.

I stand by my argument. Chances are that there are more Town than Mafia. Why would killing a town be better than no lynch? It wouldnt. Sure we might hit mafia, but lets be honest we wont. We dont have any vanilla town and I assume there are certain town roles which we really dont want to be randomly lynched D1.

good point we can lynch strike then.

Since his comment about a possible power role is lollolokloolooolooolol

MTAMB WHAT SAY YOU.

or we still on hotshot? either is fine.

Im good with strike when I said look at strikes last post i was referring to the PR comment LOL NON VANILLA GAME BRO

[StorrZerg]

Wing made an argument, and one of the assumptions made in that argument was the comment "no lynch is better than random lynch." By showing that one of the assumptions was wrong, I showed why his whole argument was incorrect. If Wing didn't want to defend this claim in absolute terms, he shouldn't have made this claim. It's absolutely absurd to blame me when he's the one who made the faulty argument. I'm just the one who pointed it out.

I stand by my argument. Chances are that there are more Town than Mafia. Why would killing a town be better than no lynch? It wouldnt. Sure we might hit mafia, but lets be honest we wont. We dont have any vanilla town and I assume there are certain town roles which we really dont want to be randomly lynched D1.

good point we can lynch strike then.

Since his comment about a possible power role is lollolokloolooolooolol

MTAMB WHAT SAY YOU.

or we still on hotshot? either is fine.

Im good with strike when I said look at strikes last post i was referring to the PR comment LOL NON VANILLA GAME BRO

Yeah but PR he meant post restriction, not power role. he explained it latter :/ I got all excited. I think its still weird that he brings up post restriction as a reason to avoid looking at him.

[Metsfanmax]

Wing made an argument, and one of the assumptions made in that argument was the comment "no lynch is better than random lynch." By showing that one of the assumptions was wrong, I showed why his whole argument was incorrect. If Wing didn't want to defend this claim in absolute terms, he shouldn't have made this claim. It's absolutely absurd to blame me when he's the one who made the faulty argument. I'm just the one who pointed it out.

I stand by my argument. Chances are that there are more Town than Mafia. Why would killing a town be better than no lynch? It wouldnt. Sure we might hit mafia, but lets be honest we wont. We dont have any vanilla town and I assume there are certain town roles which we really dont want to be randomly lynched D1.

good point we can lynch strike then.

Since his comment about a possible power role is lollolokloolooolooolol

MTAMB WHAT SAY YOU.

or we still on hotshot? either is fine.

Im good with strike when I said look at strikes last post i was referring to the PR comment LOL NON VANILLA GAME BRO

Yeah but PR he meant post restriction, not power role. he explained it latter :/

This whole exchange confused me, you should have realized he uses PR in this way since you had this exchange like a week ago:

http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewto ... d#p4650324

To avoid confusion, we usually just use PR for Post Restriction.

idk, that hasn't been used in over a year or more imo. PR more often refers to power role now.

[StorrZerg]

So? Just because i talked about it a week ago doesn't mean i was expecting him to use it in that context.

PR has been ingrained to mean Power role to me. Let alone, do i remember that it was Strike who made such comment a week ago.

[strike wolf]

It boils down to something like this:

IB: Why arent we talking about why Rishaed is posting strangely?

SW: He seems to have a PR. I am not worried about that specifically. Ill talk about him when he actually does something scummy.

So the mention of a Post Restriction was important.

Frankly, I didnt want to get into Rishaed. I thought there were more promising cases that would lead to discussion if not a mafia lynch. Either way, we are into the Rishaed thing though we've gotten decent discussion on it so I am not completely disappointed though Hotshot has kind of been under the radar. Not sure he is busy or just avoiding the spotlight now that attention is off of him.

Oh and TeeGee post please and thank you.

Fped: A week isnt that long ago.

[StorrZerg]

It boils down to something like this:

IB: Why arent we talking about why Rishaed is posting strangely?

SW: He seems to have a PR. I am not worried about that specifically. Ill talk about him when he actually does something scummy.

So the mention of a Post Restriction was important.

Frankly, I didnt want to get into Rishaed. I thought there were more promising cases that would lead to discussion if not a mafia lynch. Either way, we are into the Rishaed thing though we've gotten decent discussion on it so I am not completely disappointed though Hotshot has kind of been under the radar. Not sure he is busy or just avoiding the spotlight now that attention is off of him.

Oh and TeeGee post please and thank you.

Fped: A week isnt that long ago.

are you suggesting that i purposely knew you meant post restriction, yet ran with "power role" to cause confusion? lol

yeah your post confused more than just me mate. In the end its still weird to try and force all pressure on him off. Secondly it be nice if you followed up with understanding him, and giving some insight, cause to me it looks like gibberish.

[strike wolf]

More just expressing frustration than accusing. Youre right and I clarified that I meant Post Rstriction for people like Mtam. I didnt even realize you didnt understand what I had meant at the time.

As to pushing pressure off of him. I have been fairly clear on the front that I thought pursuing him because he was speaking strangely when he has a PR was not my idea of a case that should be pursued and I would have rather seen follow up on existing cases or for that matter someone coming up with a case on someone else for actual scum tells.

Should Rishaed be completely ignored? No. Do I think he should be pursued because he is speaking strangely? No. Will I try to shift focus away from a case based on him speaking strangely? Yes as has been demonstrated.

"Its beautiful Jur" I took this to be him agreeing.

Paraphrase: I wonder what the others would think." I took to be a statement of him questioning the legitimacy of the proposed inquiry.

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

Hotshot has kind of been under the radar. Not sure he is busy or just avoiding the spotlight now that attention is off of him.

Streaker has been absent too.

You guys appear to be arguing irrelevant points now. It doesnt matter who interpreted "PR" as and whether they intentionally misinterpreted or not as we will never know the answer to that question. Pushing the point will achieve little.

Mets has made his point now with evidence, I think it makes the argument for no lynch rather than random lynch. I'd also point out that it massively misses out on the information that a D1 town lynch comes with and helps the discussion on D2. However, this is also now an irrelevant argument.

Its time those who havent been commenting need to come and make their cases. Those active currently have made their standpoints known already.

[StorrZerg]

And yet strike, you defend him before any pressure can be applied.

un vote
vote rishaed

Note, I assume hotshot next post will involve an excuse, I'll call it scummy now.

[strike wolf]

This is far from my first game Storr. Ive seen this type of case many times, I have been on the other side of it. I have seen it enough times to know when it is developing. Tell me, storr. You see a train. You see a cow on the track. The train is currently just starting up but it will have gained by the time it reaches the cow. Do you stop the train now? Or do you wait until the last second to hit the brake when the train cant stop in time?

As far as the defense, look back if the PR statement hadnt been misinterpreted and Mets hadnt suggested a manner of lynch around it that I found scummy and pursued that,we wouldnt be talking about it to this extent.

[rishaed]

This is far from my first game Storr. Ive seen this type of case many times, I have been on the other side of it. I have seen it enough times to know when it is developing. Tell me, storr. You see a train. You see a cow on the track. The train is currently just starting up but it will have gained by the time it reaches the cow. Do you stop the train now? Or do you wait until the last second to hit the brake when the train cant stop in time?

As far as the defense, look back if the PR statement hadnt been misinterpreted and Mets hadnt suggested a manner of lynch around it that I found scummy and pursued that,we wouldnt be talking about it to this extent.

"Wisdom is for those who have time for it," Perrin muttered,

[StorrZerg]

rishaed, whom do you believe to be mafia or town
kthx

[Metsfanmax]

This is far from my first game Storr. Ive seen this type of case many times, I have been on the other side of it. I have seen it enough times to know when it is developing. Tell me, storr. You see a train. You see a cow on the track. The train is currently just starting up but it will have gained by the time it reaches the cow. Do you stop the train now? Or do you wait until the last second to hit the brake when the train cant stop in time?

As far as the defense, look back if the PR statement hadnt been misinterpreted and Mets hadnt suggested a manner of lynch around it that I found scummy and pursued that,we wouldnt be talking about it to this extent.

"Wisdom is for those who have time for it," Perrin muttered,

The fact that this ended with a comma is so much more bothersome to me than the actual content.

[Iron Butterfly]

Why does it bother you? I did not notice. Good eye though. It may mean he cuts and pastes certain responses.

[Metsfanmax]

Why does it bother you? I did not notice. Good eye though. It may mean he cuts and pastes certain responses.

It bothered me because I am a stickler for good grammar. But this post of course caused me to Google his phrase, and indeed, it's part of the second-to-last book from the Wheel of Time series:

https://books.google.com/books?id=muXgq ... 22&f=false

[Iron Butterfly]

Why does it bother you? I did not notice. Good eye though. It may mean he cuts and pastes certain responses.

It bothered me because I am a stickler for good grammar. But this post of course caused me to Google his phrase, and indeed, it's part of the second-to-last book from the Wheel of Time series:

https://books.google.com/books?id=muXgq ... 22&f=false

Well done sir. Seems to me he as to cut and paste his response to have meaningful conversation. Personally, I find something that draws that much attention was created to do just that and nothing more. I tend to agree with strike and his points as well.