Streaker's Second Mafia - Endgame - Employees win!

[mtamburini]

Its really annoying having to explain this every game

[mtamburini]

Whats your read on charm?

[Metsfanmax]

if games have been 50% town and 50% mafia your analogy makes sense.

That particular comment was in response to mtam's assumption that he is good at scumhunting. If on any particular conclusion he makes he is not more than 50% confident on his conclusion, he's not actually scumhunting anymore.

there is multitude of reasons why lynching is good vs "rng"

Ok.

I would want to look into the people who wish to lynch the inactives as this is always a bad play, I don't know how many more times I have to explain myself in every fucking game I play. Let the inactives get replaced or modkilled. They should never be lynched ever as we can make the assumption that the modkill would give us an extra "lynch"

That's fine, but don't act like there's no useful information from lynching inactives. The whole basis for the D1 lynch is that it tells us something interesting about who voted for the lynch target and who didn't. That's true whether we lynch an inactive or lynch someone who "slips."

[HotShot53]

strike wolf mafia game

virus lynched day 1

Ah, so there was one... although in re-reading it, virus almost didn't get lynched, except he said he was a one-shot vig and would shoot someone random night 1, which made it more beneficial to lynch him than to leave him alive, whether he was town or not lol. So I'd put that on the rare exception list; it's still unlikely other than in a rare case.

The only discussion thus far that I think was worthy talking about was whether or not the people who have not confirmed in the thread or not should be lynched into.

I would want to look into the people who wish to lynch the inactives as this is always a bad play, I don't know how many more times I have to explain myself in every fucking game I play. Let the inactives get replaced or modkilled. They should never be lynched ever as we can make the assumption that the modkill would give us an extra "lynch"

If an inactive is mafia and modkilled then awesome we get a shot at a 2 for 1 mafia lynch day 1. If the inactive player is town we lose a town which is bad but we still have a good chance of lynching mafia outside them.

If someone is going to be replaced/mod killed, then yeah, no reason to lynch them. If someone is posting just enough to get by, but hardly anything and nothing constructive... then that's the inactive I would go for if no-one has done anything scummy yet. At the very least, it usually gets them active again.

[mtamburini]

if games have been 50% town and 50% mafia your analogy makes sense.

That particular comment was in response to mtam's assumption that he is good at scumhunting. If on any particular conclusion he makes he is not more than 50% confident on his conclusion, he's not actually scumhunting anymore.

there is multitude of reasons why lynching is good vs "rng"

Ok.

I would want to look into the people who wish to lynch the inactives as this is always a bad play, I don't know how many more times I have to explain myself in every fucking game I play. Let the inactives get replaced or modkilled. They should never be lynched ever as we can make the assumption that the modkill would give us an extra "lynch"

That's fine, but don't act like there's no useful information from lynching inactives. The whole basis for the D1 lynch is that it tells us something interesting about who voted for the lynch target and who didn't. That's true whether we lynch an inactive or lynch someone who "slips."

How does lynching someone who is already going to die a good thing ?

[mtamburini]

strike wolf mafia game

virus lynched day 1

Ah, so there was one... although in re-reading it, virus almost didn't get lynched, except he said he was a one-shot vig and would shoot someone random night 1, which made it more beneficial to lynch him than to leave him alive, whether he was town or not lol. So I'd put that on the rare exception list; it's still unlikely other than in a rare case.

The only discussion thus far that I think was worthy talking about was whether or not the people who have not confirmed in the thread or not should be lynched into.

I would want to look into the people who wish to lynch the inactives as this is always a bad play, I don't know how many more times I have to explain myself in every fucking game I play. Let the inactives get replaced or modkilled. They should never be lynched ever as we can make the assumption that the modkill would give us an extra "lynch"

If an inactive is mafia and modkilled then awesome we get a shot at a 2 for 1 mafia lynch day 1. If the inactive player is town we lose a town which is bad but we still have a good chance of lynching mafia outside them.

If someone is going to be replaced/mod killed, then yeah, no reason to lynch them. If someone is posting just enough to get by, but hardly anything and nothing constructive... then that's the inactive I would go for if no-one has done anything scummy yet. At the very least, it usually gets them active again.

I agree with your last point, although Id rather see them get replaced so I can actually get a read on them.

[Metsfanmax]

How does lynching someone who is already going to die a good thing ?

it tells us something interesting about who voted for the lynch target and who didn't.

[Iron Butterfly]

The way to think about it is that psychologically we like to build patterns. We all remember that time that we successfully found scum on D1, so we convince ourselves that we are good at seeing the right patterns, even though most of the time we lynch a townie on D1 and we unintentionally ignore that, chalking it up to bad luck.

I suspect that if you did the statistics on games, you would find that mafia is not lynched more often than you would expect based on random chance. This is because there's so little information available on D1, and the information that you do have can easily be misinterpreted without corroborating evidence, so that you are about as likely to lynch mafia as if you had turned on a RNG.

What I have decoded this is that you call it a crapshoot because your are not confident enough in your skills to scumhunt.

I am sorry but day one scum hunting has less to do with skill then it does in being lucky. Nothing is 100% certain till someone flips. Sure over time one develops a sense of what to look for a gut instinct if you will but I hardly call it a skill. I consider myself a good player. Some may agree and some may disagree. I cant tell you how many times I have thought someone scum day one only to be surprised at how wrong I was. The reverse holds true.

I always hate arrogant statements made by players that raise their level of play while at the same time belittling others. While you are entitled to your opinion of how good you are unless you have statistics to back it up its all hot air. You had Storr dead to rights on day one on Streakers last game and he won the game. A skilled player would have hammered him home. You did not. /rant off *grin*.

So tell me does my statement make me town or mafia? Explain to us how you you tell who is who day one.

[StorrZerg]

i think what mtamb is trying to get at, is less QQ about what happens day 1 if we lynch a townie, and more pew pew on trying to lynch a scum.

as for your statement making you town or mafia, neither. Imo it isn't relieving as to the current game at hand, and your stance on who you want lynched. Its a general point of view on how you feel about the game/ player statements.

[mtamburini]

The way to think about it is that psychologically we like to build patterns. We all remember that time that we successfully found scum on D1, so we convince ourselves that we are good at seeing the right patterns, even though most of the time we lynch a townie on D1 and we unintentionally ignore that, chalking it up to bad luck.

I suspect that if you did the statistics on games, you would find that mafia is not lynched more often than you would expect based on random chance. This is because there's so little information available on D1, and the information that you do have can easily be misinterpreted without corroborating evidence, so that you are about as likely to lynch mafia as if you had turned on a RNG.

What I have decoded this is that you call it a crapshoot because your are not confident enough in your skills to scumhunt.

I am sorry but day one scum hunting has less to do with skill then it does in being lucky. Nothing is 100% certain till someone flips. Sure over time one develops a sense of what to look for a gut instinct if you will but I hardly call it a skill. I consider myself a good player. Some may agree and some may disagree. I cant tell you how many times I have thought someone scum day one only to be surprised at how wrong I was. The reverse holds true.

I always hate arrogant statements made by players that raise their level of play while at the same time belittling others. While you are entitled to your opinion of how good you are unless you have statistics to back it up its all hot air. You had Storr dead to rights on day one on Streakers last game and he won the game. A skilled player would have hammered him home. You did not. /rant off *grin*.

So tell me does my statement make me town or mafia? Explain to us how you you tell who is who day one.

*Slow claps* trying to read you gives me a headache. We hand a moment of mind melding whe it came to you talking about replacing the inactives, but then ruined it for me when you wanted to lynch in between the 2 of them at the time if none of them came back. Your neutral at the moment.

Typing on phone is hard I'll read over and talk about your early game later.

[mtamburini]

i think what mtamb is trying to get at, is less QQ about what happens day 1 if we lynch a townie, and more pew pew on trying to lynch a scum.

as for your statement making you town or mafia, neither. Imo it isn't relieving as to the current game at hand, and your stance on who you want lynched. Its a general point of view on how you feel about the game/ player statements.

No shit lol, however the discussion on whether or not to lynch in inactives or not is a way of how I like to scumhunt. Voting them off completely I think is bad but you can generally get some sort of feel where people stand on it and why it helps reveal their alignment.

Having said that where's your read on charm nerd, I think she rolled scum this time. Her towniness is very apparent early on and I've not seen that.

[StorrZerg]

no opinion on charm, she hasn't said enough for me

[StorrZerg]

sick colton is around

[colton24]

Sorry! CC took a back seat this week in a generally shitty week for me.

Vote Zerg for being ZERG
Unvote

That has been gotten out of my system. At least I only missed what seems to be the jokevote stage.

Ninja'd by Zerg, too

[Iron Butterfly]

i think what mtamb is trying to get at, is less QQ about what happens day 1 if we lynch a townie, and more pew pew on trying to lynch a scum.

as for your statement making you town or mafia, neither. Imo it isn't relieving as to the current game at hand, and your stance on who you want lynched. Its a general point of view on how you feel about the game/ player statements.

You are correct sir. However I needed to say it. So lets cut to brass tax then shall we.

Vote Colton

Perhaps he is telling the truth but from my experience it seems more often then not when someone uses that excuse they turn out to be mafia. He missed the first three days only to say nothing when he did post.

[mtamburini]

i think what mtamb is trying to get at, is less QQ about what happens day 1 if we lynch a townie, and more pew pew on trying to lynch a scum.

as for your statement making you town or mafia, neither. Imo it isn't relieving as to the current game at hand, and your stance on who you want lynched. Its a general point of view on how you feel about the game/ player statements.

You are correct sir. However I needed to say it. So lets cut to brass tax then shall we.

Vote Colton

Perhaps he is telling the truth but from my experience it seems more often then not when someone uses that excuse they turn out to be mafia. He missed the first three days only to say nothing when he did post.

Why did you not give the same read on DD, I feel that both their confirms had similar bases but you decided to only talk about Colton

[charm]

i think what mtamb is trying to get at, is less QQ about what happens day 1 if we lynch a townie, and more pew pew on trying to lynch a scum.

as for your statement making you town or mafia, neither. Imo it isn't relieving as to the current game at hand, and your stance on who you want lynched. Its a general point of view on how you feel about the game/ player statements.

No shit lol, however the discussion on whether or not to lynch in inactives or not is a way of how I like to scumhunt. Voting them off completely I think is bad but you can generally get some sort of feel where people stand on it and why it helps reveal their alignment.

Having said that where's your read on charm nerd, I think she rolled scum this time. Her towniness is very apparent early on and I've not seen that.

Well, first of all I think that it is very interesting that you want everyone to give opinions about me when I'm off playing on roller coasters. 2nd, after reading through the discussion on lynching no-shows, I agree that it makes better sense to let the mod-kill or get a replacement - however, I have not seen a reason to vote no lynch in any game I've played so far on day 1. Where is the fun in a no lynch?

Maybe it's because I'm watching Criminal Minds marathon, but I'd really like to profile someone. I think I'll watch your every move, like a leach on your ass. So, don't slip up or I might have to convince all the employees to take a vacation day and see if you and the management can run the company without us!

[StorrZerg]

lynching is a means to gain information regardless of said lynched persons alignment upon death.

Gives roles with night actions information, on who is a good "insert which ever, doc save, cop check, track check, watcher, etc etc etc" which would then hopefully yield fruitful information.

lynching no one, and prying for no information only to go into the night phase will just keep town confused, since the reason a person/s die in the night will be unknown since nothing of use will have happened day 1.

With that said, even if you want to no lynch for today, you still have to put some effort into pushing/ looking for scum. (or at the least finding people you think are town).

[StorrZerg]

i think what mtamb is trying to get at, is less QQ about what happens day 1 if we lynch a townie, and more pew pew on trying to lynch a scum.

as for your statement making you town or mafia, neither. Imo it isn't relieving as to the current game at hand, and your stance on who you want lynched. Its a general point of view on how you feel about the game/ player statements.

You are correct sir. However I needed to say it. So lets cut to brass tax then shall we.

Vote Colton

Perhaps he is telling the truth but from my experience it seems more often then not when someone uses that excuse they turn out to be mafia. He missed the first three days only to say nothing when he did post.

Why did you not give the same read on DD, I feel that both their confirms had similar bases but you decided to only talk about Colton

I think they are both different, but i still reach the same conclusion. Wouldn't mind both being lynched. I think a difference is, dd5 entered made more than 1 post, actually commented on something at hand.

colton, came in joke voted, stated the game was still in joke vote stage, and promptly left with out adding anything of value to the game.

With the difference placed out, im fine with pressuring colton as well.


Vote Colton


psa, we really should try to narrow down suspect/s to be lynched within the next 2 days.

[Iron Butterfly]

Serious talk about a mass claim this early? That's crazy IMO, mafia would know exactly who to target.

dd apologizes about forgetting about the game. 7 minutes later he offers this.As small as it is he at least offers something. It tells me he realized the mistake and posted. He reads the posts and offered his opinion with with a second post.

Colton says he has been busy with life. Gets jokey jokey and offers nothing. This is not about weather he is lying about real life. what bugs me is that three days gone and he seems to think it's ok to offer nothing because it's joke day.

As I said earlier 7 days is not a lot of time. Three days have already passed. Look at the bright side, at least we don't have to argue about lynching an inactive.

[Metsfanmax]

Sure IB, but understand how thin that is. It may be a justification if we have to choose between dd and colton, but that's an artificial choice that we don't have to abide by, and I certainly do not plan to. Storr says "we should really try to narrow down the suspects?" What do you think is going on here? We are aware of what mafia is about, we don't need to be reminded that part of the day process is finding a lynch. It looks rather suspicious of you to vote someone and offhandedly remind us how we all need to get our act together, while at the same time creating this artificial binary between dd and colton. Most of the time, people who are inactive on D1 actually do have a legitimate excuse for it, they aren't intentionally trying to scummarine. Meanwhile, mtam is reinforcing the same dichotomy, while at the same time he's supposed to be this excellent scum hunter. You can't "hunt" someone who isn't even making posts.

Meanwhile, mtam throws a hissy fit about how he has to explain in every single game that lynching inactives is bad, and then comes up with this bullshit?

No shit lol, however the discussion on whether or not to lynch in inactives or not is a way of how I like to scumhunt.

And then after arguing with me about it, literally makes exactly the same point I made about the value of lynching inactives?

Voting them off completely I think is bad but you can generally get some sort of feel where people stand on it and why it helps reveal their alignment.

Screw that. vote mtam.

[mtamburini]

Sure IB, but understand how thin that is. It may be a justification if we have to choose between dd and colton, but that's an artificial choice that we don't have to abide by, and I certainly do not plan to. Storr says "we should really try to narrow down the suspects?" What do you think is going on here? We are aware of what mafia is about, we don't need to be reminded that part of the day process is finding a lynch. It looks rather suspicious of you to vote someone and offhandedly remind us how we all need to get our act together, while at the same time creating this artificial binary between dd and colton. Most of the time, people who are inactive on D1 actually do have a legitimate excuse for it, they aren't intentionally trying to scummarine. Meanwhile, mtam is reinforcing the same dichotomy, while at the same time he's supposed to be this excellent scum hunter. You can't "hunt" someone who isn't even making posts.

Meanwhile, mtam throws a hissy fit about how he has to explain in every single game that lynching inactives is bad, and then comes up with this bullshit?

No shit lol, however the discussion on whether or not to lynch in inactives or not is a way of how I like to scumhunt.

And then after arguing with me about it, literally makes exactly the same point I made about the value of lynching inactives?

Voting them off completely I think is bad but you can generally get some sort of feel where people stand on it and why it helps reveal their alignment.

Screw that. vote mtam.

Your miss use of quoting is laughable at best. Not once did I say to lynch an inactive. A modkill reveals their allignment and we still get another lynch so we get more then one flip on a day which is of great value to town. My stance on the situation is to get information by NOT lynching them where you think its more viable to lynch them giving us less information on the rest of the people in the game. Tell me what information do you get when you lynch someone who is inactive and they flip town or mafia?

From the times that they flip town people who voted on them use the excuse oh they were inactive so they were going to be of no use to us anyway and doesnt give any information.

When they flip mafia yo can somewhat go and see who defends them but it is much easier for scum to just BW for town cred.

So your play into lynching inactives actually does nothing for town and you still refuse to scumhunt.

Ive already listed my top scum at the moment in Charm I guess you might of skimmed over that ?

[mtamburini]

Serious talk about a mass claim this early? That's crazy IMO, mafia would know exactly who to target.

dd apologizes about forgetting about the game. 7 minutes later he offers this.As small as it is he at least offers something. It tells me he realized the mistake and posted. He reads the posts and offered his opinion with with a second post.

Colton says he has been busy with life. Gets jokey jokey and offers nothing. This is not about weather he is lying about real life. what bugs me is that three days gone and he seems to think it's ok to offer nothing because it's joke day.

As I said earlier 7 days is not a lot of time. Three days have already passed. Look at the bright side, at least we don't have to argue about lynching an inactive.

I think the more obvious point which I thought storr picked up on like I did was that DD read his msg and Colton did not. Meaning DD saw his role and choose not to participate in the first couple of days until prodded. This is more scum indicative than coltons play thus far.

VOTE DD

[StorrZerg]

Serious talk about a mass claim this early? That's crazy IMO, mafia would know exactly who to target.

dd apologizes about forgetting about the game. 7 minutes later he offers this.As small as it is he at least offers something. It tells me he realized the mistake and posted. He reads the posts and offered his opinion with with a second post.

Colton says he has been busy with life. Gets jokey jokey and offers nothing. This is not about weather he is lying about real life. what bugs me is that three days gone and he seems to think it's ok to offer nothing because it's joke day.

As I said earlier 7 days is not a lot of time. Three days have already passed. Look at the bright side, at least we don't have to argue about lynching an inactive.

I think the more obvious point which I thought storr picked up on like I did was that DD read his msg and Colton did not. Meaning DD saw his role and choose not to participate in the first couple of days until prodded. This is more scum indicative than coltons play thus far.

VOTE DD

Yes I picked up on that. Hence why I made the comment about lynching him. This was mod given information, thus I didn't want to hammer that point. And while I do agree on the conclusion you made, I don't want that to define the discussion for today.

[charm]

Well, I think we are in the middle of this week now and I find it interesting the lack of participation. My scum hunting radar is up! I decided to go back through the list of players and see if I spotted those that may raise an eyebrow. For those of you not participating much, if you don't start participating then I'm going to assume you are wanting to be labeled scummy because management typically let's the worker bees do all the work and then take away our credit.

Here are a few my thoughts thus far...

1. crasp - leaning town based on the way he is posting and challenging thoughts.
2. UCAbears - leaning scum, he has only posted enough to stay off the radar, no substance to his posts, and hasn't posted since Thursday.
3. HotShot53 - no opinion yet
4. mtamburini - leaning scum, just because he is not being his mean ruthless self and it usually seems like he comes up town the nastier he is. On the other hand, he may have changed his tune since people were giving so much crap and taking things personally in previous games. I kinda miss the nasty MTam - added some interesting reading.
5. virus90 - no opinion yet
6. StorrZerg - not sure, but I'm surprised that he didn't catch the mass claim being useless, he usually catches everything.
7. colton24 - get to talking dude!
8. Iron Butterfly - leaning town, but it's only a gut thing I have no reason one way or the other, just based on how he is communicating in his posts.
9. dd515087 - get to talking dude!
10. Metsfanmax - he talked about Day 1 statistics in not finding scum, which would be a good way to scare the employees into a no lynch.
11.Charm - employee
12.legionairre - no opinion yet

Now, I'm off to decorate the lobby with flowers, because happy employees make for healthy employees and will increase the productivity - which will make the company more money and harder for management to fire us.