Once Upon A Killer Mafia (14/17) A Writers Block:Endgame

[StorrZerg]

@anark what do you hope to accomplish those posts?

So what does me reading anamainiacks town, in which you see me as being narcissistic mean?
Is it a town trait to be overly excited to town read someone? Does that mean i'm faking my emotions because i'm "faking it?"

[Army of GOD]

@AoG

I study statistics, and I'm pretty sure lynching on Day 1 is not a statistical disadvantage.

And as mentioned by Zivel and Storr, Day 1 does provide information even based on the interactions - even the conversations itself are information, even if simply in the form of the vibes you get from people; and seeing people's voting patterns. Everyone also does need information to go on, no matter how intangible it is, to decide how to use their night actions, if any. Otherwise, using town night actions would be just as much a shot in the dark, and likely to yield no results.

So even if we do end up settling for a no lynch, advocating it at this point is asking us to ignore/cut short all conversations so far, and totally remove possibility of any scum slips in the rest of Day 1 - of which we have 8.5 real days left, if I'm not wrong.

I just graduated with a degree in physics so I understand statistics too.

Right now there are 17 players and I'm going to assume 3-4 scum (let's split the difference and say 3.5). That gives us a 20.5% chance of lynching scum at random, which to me is not very comforting. In addition, in a game of this size, I would assume there are roles such as a detective and big, which means that not only gives town the oppurunity to check affiliations but also gives us the ability to night kill with the bit, which, means that day ISNT the only opportunity we have to kill scum. We also have as good of a chance to kill a town role player as we do scum and while they probably end up role claiming that means they're a night time target and the doctor will be forced to save them every night. Thirdly, keeping a townie alive D1 will give us an extra day or night at the end of the game which will allow the detective more time tonsewrch.

This is why I never play the lottery. The odds are small and while its not a lot a money (or just one townie) but it adds up at the end.

[Army of GOD]

Also, I kind of want to put a cote on Store because he's getting annoying

[Army of GOD]

Vote*, sorry for triple post haha

[mtamburini]

God you bleed town anamainiacks

Have to agree, that was a solid first post and explained coherently why we vote day one.

I am still pushing for an Ultra lynch, he has not come back to defend himself and so is either afk or lurking. Till I hear more from him, I am happy for him to die today.

Will come back later after shopping with a more comprehensive list.

I didnt read the whole thing, TLDR but based on what you said you are giving him a TR based on mechanics of the game.

Storr are you in agreement of this assessment or do you read him towny in a different way?

[mtamburini]

Also, I kind of want to put a cote on Store because he's getting annoying

Rekt you got a potential vote for being annoying before I did HOW DOES THAT MAKE YOU FEEL BRUH

[strike wolf]

There are a few things that strike me as unfair about the statistics you use AoG.

1. A game this size is much more likely to have 4 mafia (maybe even 5) than 3 which would put the percentage closer to 23.5,
2, You're statistics are based on a purely random lynch. We are actually talking about analyzing behavior and making informed decisions on who to vote for which assuming that town overall has good deductive abilities should increase the chances of making a good lynch.
3. Town have real claims, mafia have fake claims. If we do happen to make a town the first lynch candidate, that townie is more likely to have a convincing role that prevents us from lynching him than the mafia. So that also should be factored into the statistics.
4. The cop/vig has the same percent chance of hitting scum as town does in their lynch N1 if we don't have anything to go on and unlike town lynches where the target would have time to claim and possibly convince people by their defense, the person the vig shoots is dead without further information.
4a. Even if the cop does hit scum, they have a chance of hitting a godfather role (or even a miller role, if one is in the game), a framed target, redirecrted or the cop may have altered sanity. This means that overall the percentage that they hit scum and are able to tell us tomorrow is actually worse than the pure random odds presented through a random lynch (which as stated before is not what this would be).
5. We can't guarantee that the cop will even live through the night to give his results so this should negatively impact the statistics for finding scum this way.

Finally as others have stated, even a mislynch provides information on who could be scum.

Now could the day end in a no lynch? Sure but it shouldn't be the goal from the first day of the first day.

[UltrasPlot]

In a game with 17 players we will definitely have an info role, ffs.

Assuming 5 mafia (this is a liberal estimate): we are 12/5 right now. We lose one and 11/5 the next day, with cop info. The randlynch right now is utterly pointless, based off slips of the finger - something unreliable. Mafia is definitely playing carefully to NOT seem scummy. We have ZERO info right now. A townie is more likely to seem scummy Day One just because MAFIA are paying more attention to the game to not get lynched. Therefore I would much rather go in 11/5 than 10/5... since we CANNOT rule out extra mafia killing roles.

Also consider this:
If I were mafia why would I not hop onto a bandwagon? You guys seem to barely notice those, while the better play is called 'scummy.'

[UltrasPlot]

Strike, you seem to be pushing for a Day One lynch, along with Zivel. Explain how you will get scum without any info. Although 11/5 (or 12/4) seems like a worse ratio, mafia probably has one or maybe even two one-shot kill roles.

Also, as I mentioned before, scumminess does not add up well Day One with little to no info. There was no Night Zero. There is nothing except glorified guessing. My vote stays for No Lynch.

[UltrasPlot]

EBWOP (wall o' text lol)

Strike, you're also ruling out:
- The possibility of mafia getting fakeclaims prepared
- The possibility of a BG tomorrow night (interesting that you include cop dying but not cop bg'd)
- I have never seen an altered sanity cop in a game without a sane cop
- Mislynch provides info? Now? Explain how you tell apart a townie tricked by rhetoric and a mafia purposefully mislynching.
- Our odds are worse than pure random if we randlynch as stated above
- The chances of an altered sanity cop are lower than 22% tbh
- It's easier to verify roles with results than those without

If you still think randlynch is the right way to go I may as well lynch you for helping us lose.

[StorrZerg]

Also, I kind of want to put a cote on Store because he's getting annoying

Rekt you got a potential vote for being annoying before I did HOW DOES THAT MAKE YOU FEEL BRUH

people crying doesn't bother me. im here to lynch mafia

[rishaed]

Vote Count:

Ultrasplot (5) - Hotshot53, Streaker, Zivel, dd515087, Anamainiacks
Crasp (1) - Crazymilkshake5
Anarkistsdream (2) - Storrzerg, Strikewolf
NoLynch (2) - Ultrasplot, ArmyofGod

With 17 alive it takes 9 to lynch. Deadline Nov. 8th.

[StorrZerg]

EBWOP (wall o' text lol)

Strike, you're also ruling out:
- The possibility of mafia getting fakeclaims prepared
- The possibility of a BG tomorrow night (interesting that you include cop dying but not cop bg'd)
- I have never seen an altered sanity cop in a game without a sane cop
- Mislynch provides info? Now? Explain how you tell apart a townie tricked by rhetoric and a mafia purposefully mislynching.
- Our odds are worse than pure random if we randlynch as stated above
- The chances of an altered sanity cop are lower than 22% tbh
- It's easier to verify roles with results than those without

If you still think randlynch is the right way to go I may as well lynch you for helping us lose.

you need to stop confusing the idea of a day 1 lynch as a random lynch.

This isn't pulling a number out of a jar with 17 people. Push and pull is being done this day to attempt to figure out alignments.
The vast majority of the game is trying to figure out someones motivations, and alignment.

And to those suggesting and going to follow through with no lynch. You still need to give reads. Since if 2 parties are up to be lynched You should have at least MINIMAL input as to which one you would prefer over the other.

[StorrZerg]

Strike, you seem to be pushing for a Day One lynch, along with Zivel. Explain how you will get scum without any info. Although 11/5 (or 12/4) seems like a worse ratio, mafia probably has one or maybe even two one-shot kill roles.

Also, as I mentioned before, scumminess does not add up well Day One with little to no info. There was no Night Zero. There is nothing except glorified guessing. My vote stays for No Lynch.

as to how. FInd the person thats scum

lynch them easy peasy lemon squeezie

[pancakemix]

They are both scum and are misdirectino us...

C'mon, people! Down with Pancake!

This one is also pretty scummish to me, shoots down the two who are actually saying anything and then pulls a random out of thin air. Why pancake? I have my reasons but I would be interested to hear yours.

1. Teh sillehs.

At that stage, it's about all you need.

On ultra wagon: Newbie mistake, nbd.

On crasp: Hell naw, post more.

All in all, I shall Vote Crasp until we get information out of him.

Never use that color ever again.

how ever you are right about pcm, thanks for responding about him. it is hard to get a read on someone who is lacking content... How ever i think his post was not helpful to the game.

No shit, it's been one day. Your slapfight with tambo wasn't helpful either, but it was the only thing to talk about. Dunno what you want...

it's day 1, I honestly don't understand how there can be any reads this early.

vote no lynch

I hate lynching someone day 1. Always ends up wasting a townie.

While I appreciate the cynicism, you know better.

.... Because I have played mafia with him for 7 years... On this site... And... I... like... to.... give.... him.... shit....

Per my earlier response.

you can use all the credits you want about history, but you need to explain your reads. Just simply stating "i have tenor and this guy is mafia" doesn't mean shit when we don't know your alignment.

Anarkistsdream

still doing nothing to contribute tot he game

Coming from you, this is surprisingly unperceptive. This may seem foreign to you, but sometimes we like to joke about things when we play this game.

I know, we're philistines.

Where did you say this beforehand, maybe I missed it? In the above quote are the two post you made, I see nothing about giving PCM shit.... All I see is you pulling his name out of thin air.

Wtf people get a sense of humor.

fantastic! keep avoiding the game. Those who havne't voted really should consider pressuring anark since he is active, and not doing anything.

Actually, considering you based a vote on his actions here, his comment here is game valid. You're starting to reek.

Animainiacks marks the third person to blow an obvious joke out of proportion. Whyyyyyyy.

God you bleed town anamainiacks

........ You are far too narcissistic.

I say this, like, all the time.

@AoG's statistics: What Strike said.

EBWOP (wall o' text lol)

Strike, you're also ruling out:
- The possibility of mafia getting fakeclaims prepared
- The possibility of a BG tomorrow night (interesting that you include cop dying but not cop bg'd)
- I have never seen an altered sanity cop in a game without a sane cop
- Mislynch provides info? Now? Explain how you tell apart a townie tricked by rhetoric and a mafia purposefully mislynching.
- Our odds are worse than pure random if we randlynch as stated above
- The chances of an altered sanity cop are lower than 22% tbh
- It's easier to verify roles with results than those without

If you still think randlynch is the right way to go I may as well lynch you for helping us lose.

Responses in order:

- That one's easy: Mod, do the mafia have fakeclaims? Regardless, claims should only be a factor in a lynch, not the driving force.
- BG? Wut?
- That does not discount the possibility of that happening. That said, I rarely see alternate sanities anymore.
- Vote patterns, for one. Example: people who jumped on your wagon rapidly or under suspicious circumstances should be examined closely (I'm looking at you, Streaker...)
- Your scenario presupposes a very favorable mafia split AND mafia having extra KPs, which I find even less likely than alternate sanities. That is, unless you're privy to something.
- See response to point 3
- True, but that has little to do with a D1 lynch.

Ultra, I'm curious: how do you expect to get info at all if you refuse to discuss anything except not lynching anyone? Bear in mind, your position relies on roles like the cop to be around for a long time, but how can we ensure that if the cop does not make himself look town? How can he know where to look for reads? The point of the first day (and I'd argue for a good chunk of this game) is not about the destination, but the journey, as cliche as that sounds. We need to establish a foundation for the rest of the game, and voting NL from the outset does not gain us that. I was less inclined to press you before, but this activity is growing suspicious.

[strike wolf]

Strike, you seem to be pushing for a Day One lynch, along with Zivel. Explain how you will get scum without any info. Although 11/5 (or 12/4) seems like a worse ratio, mafia probably has one or maybe even two one-shot kill roles.

Also, as I mentioned before, scumminess does not add up well Day One with little to no info. There was no Night Zero. There is nothing except glorified guessing. My vote stays for No Lynch.

I shouldn't have to considering that if you had actually read my post, you would know that I am not claiming to go on no info nor am I saying that my problem with it is going into the night without a lynch. My problem is with the idea of going into the night without even trying to get reads on people. To completely ignore reads in mafia is to ignore half of the game (not to mention most of the fun). You are right, mafia does try to be careful generally but mafia being careful can slip up too. Someone being too quiet because they don't know what to say without seeming scummy, someone playing it safe as not to stand out (note I called DD on this day 1 in PYP and I was right), bandwagoning to seem like they are following town opinion, etc. All mafia strategies that rely on trying not to stand out. There are things that smart scum can do to hide but there are a lot of things that even trying to hide it's difficult to avoid doing as it is a difficult decision one way or the other. We can't get these types of reads for the cop to use night 1 if we don't at least try. The fact of the matter is that you went straight to a no lynch vote when were less than 24 hours into the day. A lot of people call that scummy and I agree with them. AoG did the same thing but it is true. He does it in pretty much every game he has played as town that I remember, so if anything I would say I have a slight town read on him right now.

Reply to second part in red.

EBWOP (wall o' text lol)

Strike, you're also ruling out:
- The possibility of mafia getting fakeclaims prepared. Nope. Fake claims can be strong but they can't be fool proof like some town roles are. By nature, most fake claims either cannot be proven or are not alignment indicative. Advantage in claiming still lies with town.
- The possibility of a BG tomorrow night (interesting that you include cop dying but not cop bg'd) Not sure what you mean by BG. Bodyguard? Sure a cop might get protected especially if people know who the cop is but if he doesn't claim (which is probably a smarter move as there are many things a mafia could do to mess with a known cop depending on what power roles they were given) than the chances that mafia hits the cop randomly between 1 in 14, 1 in 13 and 1 in 12 (assuming no extra kills) are better odds than a townie randomly protecting the cop.
- I have never seen an altered sanity cop in a game without a sane copMaybe but the question would be figuring out which cop was the sane one and less is there a sane cop.
- Mislynch provides info? Now? Explain how you tell apart a townie tricked by rhetoric and a mafia purposefully mislynching. There is no simple answer for that but you'd have to examine behavior and yes mafia does act differently. Who was actually using solid logic and who was twisting it? Who simply bandwagoned vs the person who pushed for it? Did this player's intent seem like scum hunting or was he blood thirsty? etc. I have to assume you know of these, you have referenced them in at least one of your posts.
- Our odds are worse than pure random if we randlynch as stated above. Only true if you assume that town is stupid and doesn't know how to scumhunt. There are a lot of experienced players in this game.
- The chances of an altered sanity cop are lower than 22% tbh You seem to be sticking strong to the sanity cop. What's your rebuttal to the other factors that might bias a result such as busdriver, miller, godfather, framer, etc? Miller isn't overly likely but godfather generally is in the majority of standard mafia set ups and framer/busdriver are fairly common as well.
- It's easier to verify roles with results than those withoutTrue. It's also easier to get meaningful results from people who make informed actions rather than random ones.

If you still think randlynch is the right way to go I may as well lynch you for helping us lose.

sure if you want to actually go with the only lynch that would be fully random today. Vote me. As for me, I would rather actually go on some of the reads we go with rather than take an early nap and hope that Blindman and Stuporboy save us in our sleep.

@Pancake: I can't imply newbie mistake for the simple reason that Ultra says he has mafia experience elsewhere.

I'll have to read back through the Anark-Storr dialogue.

[StorrZerg]

@Ultra where do you play? can you link some past games of yours?

[StorrZerg]

God you bleed town anamainiacks

Have to agree, that was a solid first post and explained coherently why we vote day one.

I am still pushing for an Ultra lynch, he has not come back to defend himself and so is either afk or lurking. Till I hear more from him, I am happy for him to die today.

Will come back later after shopping with a more comprehensive list.

I didnt read the whole thing, TLDR but based on what you said you are giving him a TR based on mechanics of the game.

Storr are you in agreement of this assessment or do you read him towny in a different way?

uh bit different. i liked his reads loads tbh (anark in particular )

and its more about the thought process in his post as well.

[Whatsausage]

First off, my goodness some of you are grasping hardcore at nothing when you are actually accusing anark for his very early "let's all jump on pcm" joke. You've got to be kidding me if you took that as a serious idea.

God you bleed town anamainiacks

Have to agree, that was a solid first post and explained coherently why we vote day one.

I am still pushing for an Ultra lynch, he has not come back to defend himself and so is either afk or lurking. Till I hear more from him, I am happy for him to die today.

Will come back later after shopping with a more comprehensive list.

So because he had a post agreeing with you he bleeds town? Most of his post was meta-based (the benefits of lynching D1) and that is normally the type of thing you like to jump on. What gives? That wasn't questioning/ pressuring/ giving reads.

And then zivel hops right on to agree as well.
Followed by promising a list we have yet to see (I'd give him more time on it, but it has been a decently long shopping trip)

Right now I am getting scum vibes from zivel

Fp'd by storr
somewhat talks about my question

[pancakemix]

@Pancake: I can't imply newbie mistake for the simple reason that Ultra says he has mafia experience elsewhere.

Aye, and I have since backed off of that assessment.

[Zivel]

Right, I will do some simple stats but I will put it in a spoiler because it actually has little to do with the game and its a wall of text. If you stats majors and physics students want to pull it apart go for it but the basic premise is that no lynching day one loses town a mislynch:

Spoiler

Firstly I am going to do this completely vanilla as including power roles from either side is assuming to much imo.

Lets assume 12 town v 5 mafia:
Day 1: No lynch day one then it becomes 11v5 or if we lynch a townie it is 10v5 with one mislynch
From now on all we do is lynch town.
Day 2: 9v5 one mislynch or 8v5 with two mislynchs
Day 3: 7v5 two mislynchs or 6v5 with three mislynchs
Day 4: Its over either way.

If we lynch day one we have one extra mislynch. (Side note, this is why most mods will aim for an uneven number to start with.)

Taking into consideration power roles is assuming too much, there is too much randomness with peoples personalities. Last game (PvP mafia) we had someone call a cop check day one and we lynched him to check it was true. A cop check is not a given assistance to town.

Our chance to hit a mafia day one is 33% chance, that is high enough for me to roll the dice and random lynch. Throw in a 3 party and this becomes much higher and more in our favor and the stats about about mislynch above become much worse.

Lastly and probably most importantly, we have to lynch scum. With no lynching we are not going to win. Scum kill don't have to lynch, with no lynching they are going to win.

PS no stats major or shit here, just some basic maths and google.

In a game with 17 players we will definitely have an info role, ffs.

Assuming 5 mafia (this is a liberal estimate): we are 12/5 right now. We lose one and 11/5 the next day, with cop info. The randlynch right now is utterly pointless, based off slips of the finger - something unreliable. Mafia is definitely playing carefully to NOT seem scummy. We have ZERO info right now. A townie is more likely to seem scummy Day One just because MAFIA are paying more attention to the game to not get lynched. Therefore I would much rather go in 11/5 than 10/5... since we CANNOT rule out extra mafia killing roles.

Also consider this:
If I were mafia why would I not hop onto a bandwagon? You guys seem to barely notice those, while the better play is called 'scummy.'

You are completely neglecting the fact that after today and we see a couple of flips we can look at these bandwagons. Very few scum are going to bus their partners day one when getting a lynch is hard. Forcing pressure on people gets info out.

I voted you and would happily see you lynched, I am not 100% that you are scum but you are the best choice so far. Your response is technical and wrong, it assumes power roles and using them properly. You say Mafia might have a killing role and yet you are willing to let them get a free shot at using that role without town doing anything. I find your play scummy, not just for voting no lynch early but because your explanations try to confuse with stats that are not thought through.

All my votes are for real, I believe you should never vote unless you want to see that person die at the end of the day. Otherwise it is a hollow threat. Now more need to see you for what you are, which is scum trying to dodge day one and convince others to do the same.

[Zivel]

And then zivel hops right on to agree as well.
Followed by promising a list we have yet to see (I'd give him more time on it, but it has been a decently long shopping trip)

Right now I am getting scum vibes from zivel

This is what I agree with, this is not technical gameplay talk, this is constructive criticism:

Pretty much your case on PCM so far... I thought you were throwing around the comments as a joke before, but we're clearly not joking around anymore. Your only justification for your scheme so far is pretty much "I've played mafia with him for a long time" (which means he's scum... how?), and that you "like to give him shit". All this after people have asked for proper support to your suspicions, and you in turn accuse them of skimming.

And you've basically ignored everything that everyone else has commented aside from their comments directed to you, which feels as though you're trying to take everyone's attention off the reads on each other, and going, "Stop all the constructive conversation! Let's all just vote PCM because I like to give him shit!"

Well if you had read everything that's been said regarding why and how Day 1 is useful, then you needn't be asking this question. The information you're asking about can even be found on the same page as this post of yours. So if you're asking us to pressure the skimmers, you'd definitely be one of them.

Your play isn't necessarily scummy, but it sure isn't helpful or constructive at this point.

So even if we do end up settling for a no lynch, advocating it at this point is asking us to ignore/cut short all conversations so far, and totally remove possibility of any scum slips in the rest of Day 1 - of which we have 8.5 real days left, if I'm not wrong.

That is as in depth analysis as you can get at this point in the game. It is asking questions and it forcing people to think about motivations. That is town play, not 'I am getting scum vibes' with little to back up. I am finding storr town at the moment and I read that post and saw that he said what I was thinking so I quoted his post and sheeped along.

You need to come up with something more interesting than that to deflect my attention from your scum buddy Ultra

[StorrZerg]

Fair point all, but my push on Anarkistsdream isn't about his "joke" it's about the lack of content.

I missed the joke, yet it doesn't really change anything.

[Zivel]

Now on that list, people who have been advocating a No Lynch day one:
Ultra, AOG
Skimming and missing the point:
Mtam
Dodging:
PCM, Anark
My town reads so far:
Storr, strike and Anark

Now it is day one and so this is all probably wrong but I am learning to play mafia according to strike's signature. Throw enough shit around and some will stick eventually.

[Zivel]

hmm I am not reading Anark town, I am reading Animainiacks as town.... Anark is probably scum for all I know