spiesr wrote:Commander, take a look at who claimed what again...
StubbsKVM wrote:I am Elvis Presley, Bulletproof Townie.
jonty125 wrote:The Beatles-Town Doctor
Well, then....
Honestly, this does change quite a bit for me - I could easily see Elvis Presley fitting into a Godfather type of a role or being provided as a "Solid" claim and BP Townie works really well with that... Hmmm, I'd still be leaning towards IB as our lynch, but this may not be a bad lynch either.
StubbsKVM wrote:Let's see
Neb was roleblocked
newguy was roleblocked
spiesr claimed roleblocker and claims to have roleblocked newguy
nobody has claimed busdriver
IB has claimed Hider: Dazza, Jonty are town if this is true.
Commander-Doom are masons
So that means there is a mafia roleblocker and a mafia busdriver?
I don't really trust spiesr, especially because he wants to lynch the only role that scum can't kill.
But his claim seems to be believable, because newguy has confirmed it.
That means we still need to find 2 fakeclaims, 1 is the roleblocker and 1 is the busdriver.
I think Ghostly or IB would probably be most likely to be lying. Or possibly both.
The other option is spiesr/newguy both lying.
I have seen scum governors before. So if we lynch ghostly, he could use his power, but we still won't know if he's town or scum.
If we lynch IB, and he flips town, we'll have 2 confirmed town in Dazza and Jonty.
So I guess I'll just
vote IB
Does any of that makes sense? Or am I missing something?
I actually PM'd Doom Spiesr as the best lynch for D2 if I got off'ed and I still don't trust him (he's probably the hardest player to read for me in the whole mafia forums), but as of now I'd prefer you and IB over him and most of others. I'm willing to believe Ghostly's claim.
Nebuchadnezer wrote:2. jonty – The Beatles, town doctor
5. Ghostly447 – Rolling Stones, town governor
7. Stubbs – Elvis Presley, town bulletproof
8. New guy1 – Pink Floyd, town philosopher
9. Doomyoshi – Art Garfunkel, town mason
10. Commander9 – Paul Simon, town mason
11. Neb – Dire Straits, town watcher
12. Dazza – Eric Clapton, town double voter
13. Iron Butterfly – Les Paul, town hider
14. Spiesr – Jimi Hendrix, town roleblocker
Dead
4. Skillfulsniper-Janis Joplin-Town Bodyguard Killed N1
3. KGB007-The Band-Town Vig Lynched Day 2
6. Aage-Bob Dylan-Town Joat Killed N2
1. theChuck51-Pete Townshend-Town Cop Killed N3
Okay, there’s the list of claims. My thoughts (I’m not commenting on myself, as I’m a little partial):
1. Jonty, doom, commander are pretty solid claims. Jonty was investigated by chuck, and masons are pretty good.
2. Spiesr seems to be townish, as I’m pretty sure there are two roleblockers, and he would be the town one, with a confirmed action last night.
3. governor, bulletproof, philosopher, double voter and hider are easier to fake/can be mafia roles, so Ghostly, Stubbs, Newguy, Dazza and Iron have the least favorable claims.
3a. Of these 5, there are a roleblocker and a busdriver and one other mafia (grunt?).
3b. Of these 5, I feel that governor and hider can be proven at some point…Ghostly can halt a lynch, and Iron can let us know who he’s hiding behind (although, with a busdriver, that does get tricky…).
3c. So, my focus is down to Stubbs, New guy and Dazza.
Based on where we are, I am comfortable with trying one of these three as a lynch.
Vote STUBBS
I agree with most of your analysis, but here's my list.
People who I'd not lynch unless something major happens: Myself, Doom, Dazza (Double-voter confirmed and mafia is very unlikely), Jonty (fairly confident that he's town), neb (somewhat confirmed since day 2), ghostly (testable and that'd be a pretty balsy claim - most likely town).
The Yellow Zone: Spiesr (I honestly can't read him fully and I've suspected that he's the GF at days 1 to 3, but at the same time, he's not quite as scummy as most others in the list).
The Red Zone: newguy (Philo seems like super weak role and in general his claim today may be mafia's attempt to force a no lynch with town trusting them while they win - roleblocked conveniently too), Stubbs (a PERFECT claim for the godfather all around ("King of Rock-and-roll" claim, "BP Townie").
The Twillight Zone: IB has been on my list since day 1 as I still think that was a mistaken overreaction by him - in general I don't think he really contributed that much to town and his claim is by far the weakest IMHO.
So my final thoughts: My guess is that the mafia is IB, Stubbs and either newguy or Spiesr. I'd lynch in this preference: IB ---> Stubbs ---> Newguy ---> Spiesr >=< everyone else. If I'm right about Stubbs and IB, we should then definitely test out ghostly's claim.
Iron Butterfly wrote:I am gonna be way for the next few days because of the holidays.
First Comm9 seems to believe that flavor has something to do with roles and name. While Simon and Garfunkel may work you can not say the same for Pete Townsend being a cop, Elvis being bullet proof, Janis Joplin being a body guard or the Band being a Vig to name a few. Anyone who bases their vote on flavor is silly.
Several of us can not prove who we are even if we use our actions.
I had a long post and then realized it was identical to Nebs, which pretty much sums up the game situation.
Vote Stubbs
Fair enough - although I do believe there's enough flavour to actually mean something. Elvis being BP definitely makes sense through flavour (or as a Godfather replacemnt) and IMHO Towsend as a cop can also be made sense off. However, all of this is indeed subjectable and I do believe our lynches should be more so based on merit and actions through out the game - and thus my list.
new guy1 wrote:spiesr wrote:A question for Newguy, given that this scene seems to indicate that the scum faction has three members why did you use an action to find that out again?
strike wolf wrote:A bar sits open, despite being busy it seems quiet and run down. Men with beards and guitars sit slumped over poker cards while a tired out old Argent record keeps repeating "God Gave Rock and Roll to You. Gave rock and roll to you. Gave rock and roll to everyone." The regulars have forgotten whether the record is skipping or if that's just how the song goes. Either way they don't care. They've long since forgotten what most of their own songs sound like since the radio stopped playing them. Suddenly the door slams open and someone cuts off the music. A group sitting at their own table stand up in the back.
"Hey that's our song man! You cut it-" One of the men yells just before he is silenced by the bang of a .12 gauge shot gun. The rest turn white and sit back down, quietly as the man puts the gun back up.
The shooter steps past the body and into the shadiest corner bar where another sits with his hand on the lever. He turns to the man and asks him plainly. "Is he here yet?"
"Not yet" The man says. "Glad you showed up on time."
"Wouldn't miss it" He replied. "Figures he isn't here. Probably hanging out with his new Hall of Fame friends."
"Don't be so quick to pick targets." The other man says as he pulls the lever muttering some old song lyrics as he does. "This was the plan all along. Don't let it go to your head."
"Yeah right. I'm sure the limelight's gotten to his head already. Probably ratting us..."
"Gotten into who's head?" Another man says. He had approached quietly through the door without anyone realizing he was there until he said something.
The first man gulped and turned pale under his face paint. the person he saw didn't look intimidating but he knew all too well how dangerous he was. How he had rose to become the leader of their little gang. "Nothing. We were just joking around. We know you're still good man."
"Just remember what this is for. They trust me now. That just gets us closer to our goal. You do remember our goal right?" He looks over at the other two men as they nod their heads, his own unholy triumvirate and satisfied, he leans over the table with a smile. "Tonight, we destroy the Rock N Roll hall of fame."
Day one begins, with 14 alive it takes 8 to lynch.
I did not collect from the scene that there were probably 3 scum members, probably the same as many considering part of the reason I claimed is because people were thinking there were 4 mafia, not 3. In case that didnt make sense, I am saying I think alot of people missed that in the scene, not just me. Before we reach deadline, be it by lynch or by deadline, does anyone have problems with me asking how many people that were on this lynch were scum? The only thing I can see is that if you are right and I am scum, then I know the answer already. Figured I would lay that out there so you all could take it into account, because I didnt think of it when I was asking the question.
As far as lynches, I feel as though stubbs' claim of Bulletproof is viable, and so I am going to leave him. IMO, I would actually prefer to lynch IB, because if he is telling the truth we can rule out more players as scum. The only downside to this is that 1)I dont think there would be momentum to lynch him and we'll end in a NL, and 2)He can rule out more people while we wait to lynch him. Because of these factors, I think we can wait at least till tomorrow to lynch him if so desired and I can take a chance with lynching stubbs.
Vote stubbs.
ghostly447 wrote:...I will point out, new guy, that you started off saying stubbs claim was viable and that you would leave him, but then still voted him. If anyone wants me to prevent the lynch, I need a majority vote to do so because I want to prove myself town, but I want it to be useful.
Adam
Good catches. Anyways, to summarize: IB ---> Stubbs ---> Newguy ---> Spiesr >=< everyone else. My preferable lynch will still be IB, but I'm willing to go with Stubbs (and worst case scenario newguy). For now, my vote stays on IB.
