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How are the dice rolls generated?

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Re: How are the dice rolls generated?

Postby Jdsizzleslice on Sun Jun 03, 2012 9:56 pm

I don't know how they are generated, but they need to be FIXED, my dice stats have been red EVERY SINGLE TIME I have checked them... And today, within the last 6 hours, I have lost a total of nearly 200 points, all because of the @#$%^&* dice. Losing things like 11v3, 7v1, 20v7, etc, games that I should have won, but didn't due to absolutely horrible dice.
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Re: How are the dice rolls generated?

Postby Fewnix on Mon Jun 04, 2012 12:40 am

Jdsizzleslice wrote:I don't know how they are generated, but they need to be FIXED, my dice stats have been red EVERY SINGLE TIME I have checked them... And today, within the last 6 hours, I have lost a total of nearly 200 points, all because of the @#$%^&* dice. Losing things like 11v3, 7v1, 20v7, etc, games that I should have won, but didn't due to absolutely horrible dice.



Part of what uou say confimrs my point , the player who as most of us do starts an attack when the odds are in his favour, 11 v 3, 7 v 1 , 20 v 7 and contiunues until he takes the tert or loses all the attacking troops. The odds are in fact that there will be losing streaks and winning streaks.

On your dice stats:took a look at your stats and over the last 25 battles as of the time of this post, you have had +3% on assault, broke even on defence and in total got +2%. Care to provide an update on your dice stats now?


Recent dice rolls (25 battles)

Jdsizzleslice 4.7 all opponents
Luck Avg Roll 1's 2's 3's 4's 5's 6's Luck Avg Roll 1's 2's 3's 4's 5's 6's
Assault +3% 3.57 8 17 10 13 11 13 -9% 3.28 5 11 5 9 4 5
Defend 0% 3.50 10 14 6 12 12 10 -5% 3.38 18 27 19 21 12 21
Total +2% 3.54 18 31 16 25 23 23 -6% 3.36 23 38 24 30 16 26

To drill down to the details: the "problem":is that the odds do work out in the long run but there will be bursts of "bad luck" and short bursts of "good luck". Tou will not roll 3s every roll of the die, some times you get a 6, sometimes a 1.

A simple example: take a six sided die and roll it a thousand time, keeping track of the results in sequence and. count the total numbers that showed up . It is possible you could get 1,000 1s so the numbers add up to a thousand or you could get a thousand 6s and the numbers add up to 6,000 but the odds should give you about 166 ones, 166 twos, 166 threes, a 166 fours, 166 fives, a 166 sixes and the thousand rolls generate about 3,000. total, right?

Now look at the sequence broken down into 200 sets of 5 rolls each, It is possible that each and ever single one of these 200 sets could add up to 15, averaging exactly and precisely 3 for the 5 rolls. But that is unlikely. If is far more likely that some of those 200 sets of 5 rolls will be closer to 5 (9 or less, an avrage roll less than 2) than 15 and some of those rolls will be closer to 30 ( 23 or more, an average roll of more than 34) than 15.

To put this in Conquer club terms if you break you dice stats in seuences of 5 rolls, 5 attacks, no surprise that once in a while you will get asequenes of rolls that add up to less than 15., e,g, some times of that 5 rolls lots of 1s and 2s. For the advanced class ;) the fact you rolled 1 means you lost that part of the attack, lost a troop, , the fact you rolled a 2 does not mean you lost, though it is quite likely unless the defender rolled a `1. Similarly the times you rolled high 4, 5 or 6 does not mean you won , if the defender rolled the same or higher than you.

to close this part of the discussion , most CC players try to take at least one tert a turn often 2, 3 or more terts a turn, Most attmepts to take a tert will involves 2, 3 or more attacks- you cannot take a tert with 3 troops on it without at least two attacks and thats if you are "lucky:. If you are "unlucky" you may fail to take a tert with 100 attacks. Assume in a standard game with 6 players each player averages 5 to 10 attacks a turn, we have 30 to 60 attacks a round. It wouldn't be unusual for a game to go over 1000 attacks. with 30 to 60 attacks a round we are talking 16 t0 33 rounds) Regardless of the number of attack attempts, It woull be surprised if in a ta least on of the attempts to take a tert, a player had 5 or more bad rolls in sequence. ..

On your specific attempts 11 v 3 needs 4 bad rolls for the odds to be against you- lose 8 while the defender lost 0 - gives 3 v 3. a losing positio n to continue the attack, 3 bad rolls you lose 2 the defender 0, one roll your break even, one loss each gives 4 v 2 possible, but not a sure victory.

7 v 1 takes 3 bad rolls you lose 6 defender 0 leaving 1 v1 impossible to continue. Bad breaks but happens. 20 v 7? 5 bad rolls where you lose 2 the defender 0 gives you 10 v 7 not great odds for you, throw in a few times the odds broke even, you both lost one and you are at 7 v 4, 6 v 3, 5 v 2 possible each step of the way if the attacks contine but not a sure thing by any means.
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Re: How are the dice rolls generated?

Postby JustCallMeStupid on Mon Jun 04, 2012 2:13 am

Im tired of u nimrods(pardon the offensive name calling) saying anything about his 'luck' on dice rolls. No one cares if he rolls only 6's and his luck is +99% if he is winning less than 37% of his 3v2 then he is getting below average outcomes which is ultimately what matters. And since I have been on an outstanding losing streak on my dice I wanted to post them again so that we may all get a good laugh. So here it is again, a new all time low with even more rolls. Everyone feel free to laugh and mock me :lol:

I dont want to hear any noobs point out how I roll so many more 4's than I should, when the defense rolls tons of 5's and 6's the average should be 1/6 and generally 1000 rolls of dice should give one close to statistically accurate results....2000 rolls... cmon CC cut me some slack pls. Again the real numbers are the 3v2 and 3v1 attacks and how close they are to "Ideal" as one can see Im pretty close on 3v1 within 1% of ideal but give me a break on the 3v2 attacks 300+ attacks and Im at 29%? Really?

Click image to enlarge.
image


Oh and dont file a support ticket over bad dice even as a joke. They only make ur dice worse as mine have gone down from 32% to 29% since I filed the joke support ticket lmao.

PS I tried ur advice comic, it worked briefly but now I feel sad again :(
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Re: How are the dice rolls generated?

Postby Agent 86 on Mon Jun 04, 2012 10:04 am

I feel good now, thought I had the worst dice on CC but now someone is showing worse stats than me ;)

Due to team games and my clan, I don't care about the dice anymore because I'm havin fun and that's what's important!!

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Re: How are the dice rolls generated?

Postby KoolBak on Mon Jun 04, 2012 11:26 am

Every one of you that is complaining has OVERALL dice luck of 0%. Explain that away......

Not that I don't feel your pain......in 6 years I have threatened to quit several times based on BS dice...years ago I engaged in dice bitch threads all the time. I also HAVE to admit that I notice the BAD dice a hell of a lot more than the good dice....I believe, in my experience, that MY short term luck progresses along a sine wave, if you will. Up, down, up, down....and it appears to go in approx 1 - 2 month cycles. I NEVER change my (shitty) playing style and I play my SAME brothers / sisters in xigames exclusively and my rank goes from Sargeant to Major depending on the wave. Normally I am Sarge 1st class / Lieut, but for example, now I am above that. I havent gotten "better" and I havent played smarter.....lol.

Find a set up you enjoy (like playing with a group of friends / whatever) and play. If you dont like it, press on. Simple :lol:
"Gypsy told my fortune...she said that nothin showed...."

Neil Young....Like An Inca

AND:
riskllama wrote:Koolbak wins this thread.
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Re: How are the dice rolls generated?

Postby Chuuuuck on Mon Jun 04, 2012 12:56 pm

JustCallMeStupid wrote:
Click image to enlarge.
image




I am dumbfounded you are even complaining. So you lose a few extra 3v2s, big deal! I didn't see you complaining about the ridiculously above average results you have had for 3v1, 2v2, and 2v1s!!

I mean, seriously, you have NEVER lost 0-2 when rolling 2v2.

I would be one hell of a player with those stats. Obviously you just need to start out more games rolling as many 3v3s as you can on your first turn. You'd be unstoppable.

p.s.... would you like to try it out in 10-20 games against me?
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Re: How are the dice rolls generated?

Postby JustCallMeStupid on Mon Jun 04, 2012 9:49 pm

Chuuuuck wrote:I am dumbfounded you are even complaining. So you lose a few extra 3v2s, big deal! I didn't see you complaining about the ridiculously above average results you have had for 3v1, 2v2, and 2v1s!!

I mean, seriously, you have NEVER lost 0-2 when rolling 2v2.

I would be one hell of a player with those stats. Obviously you just need to start out more games rolling as many 3v3s as you can on your first turn. You'd be unstoppable.

p.s.... would you like to try it out in 10-20 games against me?


You are right I didnt even realize that my 2v2 dice attacks were so strong. I will definitely put that to good use in my next game. Id say things cant get any worse, but I said that 7 days ago when I was at 32% win rate on my 3v2s.

Sorry but new update I broke 29%!!!!!!!!

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Re: How are the dice rolls generated?

Postby Phatscotty on Fri Jun 08, 2012 12:17 am

comic boy wrote:Everybody gets runs of good or bad dice , it evens out over time so whats the big deal ?
In truth good players overcome the bad runs , poor players use it as an excuse , like it or not thats the way it is.


we agree on something at least
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