Power Role Draft Mafia - Town Wins!

by **dazza2008** on Wed Mar 07, 2012 5:41 pm

everywhere116 wrote:And your case was:
soundman wrote:Vote SG7 For no particular reason.

Pretty solid case then :roll:

by **shieldgenerator7** on Wed Mar 07, 2012 5:46 pm

Oh wow, I guess I gotta defend myself, well.. er,
Shields up! (for no particular reason)

-SG7 ( :lol:

)

by **Some7hingCLEVER** on Wed Mar 07, 2012 7:26 pm

shieldgenerator7 wrote:Oh wow, I guess I gotta defend myself, well.. er,
Shields up! (for no particular reason)

-SG7 ( )

lol nice going
But what about my post was scummy
Not being cocky just kinda asking for advice ..ive been in a couple games were I have screwed up and lost the game for town..i dont want this case to be like that

by **shieldgenerator7** on Wed Mar 07, 2012 8:17 pm

Some7hingCLEVER wrote:
shieldgenerator7 wrote:Oh wow, I guess I gotta defend myself, well.. er,
Shields up! (for no particular reason)

-SG7 ( )

lol nice going
But what about my post was scummy
Not being cocky just kinda asking for advice ..ive been in a couple games were I have screwed up and lost the game for town..i dont want this case to be like that

Heh, sorry clever. I want to help but I can't. It seems to me you've just been selected as the town's random D1 target. Not much you can do about that except defend yourself the best you can. It seems you've been taking a lot of heat in your recent games. Don't worry, just about every new player goes through that phase, even me. Ah, yes. I remember when I would get lynched D1 every game no questions asked. Those were the days... but I'm glad their over.
I don't think it was all that scummy but it's the random D1 BW that happens every game when we have little to no info. Sorry

-SG7 (

)

by **pmchugh** on Wed Mar 07, 2012 8:31 pm

SG7 you are seeming odd to me, all you have done is joke about and as much as I love your jokes it seems like you haven't contributed much. Well until now when you admitted that you are only voting for somethingClever because he is new and not because you think he is mafia.

FOS.

by **shieldgenerator7** on Wed Mar 07, 2012 9:05 pm

pmchugh wrote:SG7 you are seeming odd to me, all you have done is joke about and as much as I love your jokes it seems like you haven't contributed much. Well until now when you admitted that you are only voting for somethingClever because he is new and not because you think he is mafia.

FOS.

Well I must say that is a well-placed FOS because I really haven't contributed much, not do I have much right now. I'll post something of value when it comes to mind. This game is different and it seems its taxing my thinking ability a little. It'll take me a little longer to warm up to it. Don't worry.... Shields holding at 50% and rising, sir.

-SG7 ( 8-)

)

by **shieldgenerator7** on Wed Mar 07, 2012 9:42 pm

Alright, PMC chewed me out now I gotta post something to make up for it

So I was thinking:
Mafia could talk before D1 so they probably coordinated their numbers to try to get their top picks. THey would have did it so they didn't duplicate their numbers, but other than that what town chooses is rather random and uncontrollable. So they might be scattered around this list of players (15 players means probably around 1 mafia per group of four):

Group 1:
Alt1978 – 11
MoB – 14
Djfireside – 17
Soundman – 22

Group 2:
Nagerous - 6
Dazza – 6
Somethingclever – 9
Edocsil – 9

Group 3:
Pmchugh – 1
Ragian – 1
Freezie – 1

Group 4:
Spiesr – 7
Everywhere – 7
Ghostly447 – 7
Shield – 7

It is possible I'm completely wrong and mafia are scattered unevenly throuhgout this list, but there's one thing for sure: unless mafia are sincerely stupid or severely cunning no more than 1 mafia exists in group 4, or group 3; and no more than 2 mafia in group 2. (this assumes they all picked different numbers)

So with that in mind, let's consider what roles would likely be high on the mafia's list:

1 - cop -

doubtful, only helpful to keep town from getting info
2 - watcher -

unuseful
3 - tracker -

unuseful
4 - doctor -

useful incase they don't get vig
5 - roleblocker -

useful, standard mafia role
6 - vigilante -

very useful, provides second kill
7 - bomb (works both when lynched and nightkilled) -

useful as it makes sure a townie dies when he does
8 - JOAT (1-shot cop, doctor and vigilante) -

semi-useful
9 - inventor (1-shot rolecop, roleblock and hide - only dies if hiding behind a player that is killed) -

semi-useful
10 - busdriver -

useful in screwing up town
11 - commuter (cannot commute in back to back nights) -

unuseful
12 - bulletproof (also immune to bomb) -

obviously handy, especially if they don't have vig
13 - doublevoter (second vote is a secret "???" PMed to me) -

mildly useful
14 - 1-shot governor (can stop any lynch, including his own - day ends if he uses his power) -

useful
15 - loved person (needs one more vote than necessary in order to be lynched) -

could be more useful
16 and 17 - 2 masons (town only) - :!:

can't have it
18 - framer (mafia only) -

useful only if town has cop. The very existance of it means that mafia cop can say some townie is scum and then say the framer did it. But this assumed the cop is mafia, which I find unlikely
19 - ninja (mafia only - will not be seen by watchers nor trackers) -

useful, but like the framer, it will cause problems in mass claims for the mafia. Perhaps the mafia would sell these two players out if they got stuck with these roles to save themselves. IDK

It looks like maybe 1 or 2 would have gotten their top pick, which means two of these

roles would have gotten what they want. And then there's probably 2 who didn't get their first pick and probably ended up with a

role.

Ok, so the role analysis is a little weak because I really don't know what roles mafia would want most, but I'm pretty sure my group separation analysis is pretty accurate. It's at least probable.

I need some more input about the probable mafia roles tho.

-SG7 (

)

by **everywhere116** on Wed Mar 07, 2012 10:21 pm

Rate cop higher. Even wanting to keep it from the town is a powerful motivator to want it.

by **MoB Deadly** on Thu Mar 08, 2012 12:00 am

SG7 - wow actually nice post about the duplicate numbers. Obviously that has WIFOM written all over it, but it would NOT be productive for the mafia to pick duplicate numbers. I didnt realize that allowing them to talk before hand, allowed them to coodinate their numbers.

I will post later on why I think L-3 is a big deal. It wasn't JUST about the L-3, it was how he did it and how he reacted after..... It was the whole picture, not JUST l-3

by **freezie** on Thu Mar 08, 2012 12:18 am

I like that list. Really. That may have Wifom written over it, but that's a real hard thing to Wifom anyway.

by **dazza2008** on Thu Mar 08, 2012 6:06 am

everywhere116 wrote:Rate cop higher. Even wanting to keep it from the town is a powerful motivator to want it.

I would rate it higher too.

Does a mafia cop not find out the exact role of the person he investigates?

by **Some7hingCLEVER** on Thu Mar 08, 2012 9:52 am

MoB Deadly wrote:LOL!!!!!!

You FOS me for skimming, when you just skimmed the vote count to put him at L-3. Real nice. There's no excuse for putting someone at L-3 like that.

There were TWO votes RIGHT above your post on Page 9. You couldn't possibly miss that if you tried.

vote clever for trying to defend that.

ok bringing this back from page thirteen

your right i didnt miss that but thats only TWO votes out of 15 people so me voting me couldnt put him at l-3 unless there was three others who voted for him
two of those others were way far back into page 4 and 5 so honestly i had no clue it would be at l-3

and trying to defend that!!!!!! would you like me not to defend myself????

by **pmchugh** on Thu Mar 08, 2012 10:02 am

shieldgenerator7 wrote:

I think I disagree with your list in a good few places; like JOAT would always be in my top 3 as any alignment due to its versatility even if it is more useful for town. To be honest, I think almost all of the roles in that list are very useful for mafia.

Imagine you were a watcher which you described as not useful. You could watch the person you kill, this means if a tracker follows you then you have a good reason for visiting them and if someone else visits them you can blame them for the kill. When they inevitably turn up townie you can blame the ninja for why you never saw a killer which would be fantastic if there was no ninja in the game as then all the town start looking for a role which doesn't even exist. Watcher has potential to cause mayhem and so do most of them roles.

Anyway, I make the same WIFOMy decision you did, that they probably coordinated their number picks to be different. I would go further and propose that it is likely that a few of them chose numbers of a similar value as they would have came to a shared understanding of how the draft would work. I realise this is a small jump but I think it is reasonable, if your teammate says I will pick 3, you are unlikely to go, "yeah that sounds good I will pick 19".

So I would propose that there may be 3 mafia in the numbers 6,7 and 9.

by **Djfireside** on Thu Mar 08, 2012 10:20 am

MoB Deadly wrote:SG7 - wow actually nice post about the duplicate numbers. Obviously that has WIFOM written all over it, but it would NOT be productive for the mafia to pick duplicate numbers. I didnt realize that allowing them to talk before hand, allowed them to coodinate their numbers.

And begin the WIFOM!

I actually believe that at least two of them should have choose the same number and it makes perfect sense so that they could be more towards the bottom of the list and know what has gone. Put up roles you would want to get but have the mafia role 4th or 5th and if you get lucky ok, otherwise you know what is missing and where to go with it. If they did not have at least two duplicated I would be surprised.

pmchugh wrote:Anyway, I make the same WIFOMy decision you did, that they probably coordinated their number picks to be different. I would go further and propose that it is likely that a few of them chose numbers of a similar value as they would have came to a shared understanding of how the draft would work. I realise this is a small jump but I think it is reasonable, if your teammate says I will pick 3, you are unlikely to go, "yeah that sounds good I will pick 19".

I agree, going on my previous statement I think the others would stay pretty close knit so they could get the top values.

dazza2008 wrote:
everywhere116 wrote:And your case was:
soundman wrote:Vote SG7 For no particular reason.

Pretty solid case then

This just passed by but really? Thats your case and now you are taking a backseat and letting your case run? ummmm =D>

Greatest stance ever?

by **dazza2008** on Thu Mar 08, 2012 10:24 am

Djfireside wrote:
dazza2008 wrote:
everywhere116 wrote:And your case was:
soundman wrote:Vote SG7 For no particular reason.

Pretty solid case then

This just passed by but really? Thats your case and now you are taking a backseat and letting your case run? ummmm Greatest stance ever?

Who is this directed at?

by **shieldgenerator7** on Thu Mar 08, 2012 10:59 am

Ok I can see your reasoning that all the roles would be useful to mafia, but if we say all the roles are useful that defeats the purpose of making the chart because its about which roles are most likely to have been chosen by mafia. So to make it useful we have to evaluate how useful each role is in relation to the other roles.

BTW anyone can feel free to EBWOP my post as I can't edit it (it's the rules).

-SG7 (

)

by **edocsil** on Thu Mar 08, 2012 11:35 am

Dude,just copypasta the list if you want to change it.

by **spiesr** on Thu Mar 08, 2012 11:45 am

dazza2008 wrote:
everywhere116 wrote:Rate cop higher. Even wanting to keep it from the town is a powerful motivator to want it.
I would rate it higher too.

Does a mafia cop not find out the exact role of the person he investigates?

While if the mafia had a cop in a normal game it would probably have an ability like that, I don't think that roles will work differently depending on which side got them in this game...

by **dazza2008** on Thu Mar 08, 2012 11:52 am

spiesr wrote:
dazza2008 wrote:
everywhere116 wrote:Rate cop higher. Even wanting to keep it from the town is a powerful motivator to want it.
I would rate it higher too.

Does a mafia cop not find out the exact role of the person he investigates?
While if the mafia had a cop in a normal game it would probably have an ability like that, I don't think that roles will work differently depending on which side got them in this game...

Ah ok. Cheers.

by **Rodion** on Thu Mar 08, 2012 11:53 am

spiesr wrote:
dazza2008 wrote:
everywhere116 wrote:Rate cop higher. Even wanting to keep it from the town is a powerful motivator to want it.
I would rate it higher too.

Does a mafia cop not find out the exact role of the person he investigates?
While if the mafia had a cop in a normal game it would probably have an ability like that, I don't think that roles will work differently depending on which side got them in this game...

Spiesr is correct. A cop gets innocent or guilty regardless of which faction drafted him.

by **dazza2008** on Thu Mar 08, 2012 11:56 am

Rodion wrote:
spiesr wrote:
dazza2008 wrote:
everywhere116 wrote:Rate cop higher. Even wanting to keep it from the town is a powerful motivator to want it.
I would rate it higher too.

Does a mafia cop not find out the exact role of the person he investigates?
While if the mafia had a cop in a normal game it would probably have an ability like that, I don't think that roles will work differently depending on which side got them in this game...

Spiesr is correct. A cop gets innocent or guilty regardless of which faction drafted him.

Cool, cheers Rodion.

by **pmchugh** on Thu Mar 08, 2012 12:22 pm

shieldgenerator7 wrote:Ok I can see your reasoning that all the roles would be useful to mafia, but if we say all the roles are useful that defeats the purpose of making the chart because its about which roles are most likely to have been chosen by mafia. So to make it useful we have to evaluate how useful each role is in relation to the other roles.

BTW anyone can feel free to EBWOP my post as I can't edit it (it's the rules).

-SG7 ( )

See I don't really think we can make a list due to its subjectiveness, maybe groupings would be better. I think it is likely that mafia would have some people go for positive roles (vig, roleblocker) and some go for negative roles (cop, doc) to create a balance if they were playing well. However we must be careful, one thing that usually catches me out is that I assume the mafia to have come to logical conclusions where as they may have just winged it or not thought very much about it.

I would group the roles as following:
Proactive mafia roles (4):
vigilante ++++++++++++++
roleblocker
bomb (works both when lynched and nightkilled)
busdriver

Mafia only and therefore proactive (2):
ninja (mafia only - will not be seen by watchers nor trackers)
framer (mafia only)

One less day roles (3) (roles that make mafia win earlier but don't really contribute to night actions):
doublevoter (second vote is a secret "???" PMed to me)
1-shot governor (can stop any lynch, including his own - day ends if he uses his power)
loved person (needs one more vote than necessary in order to be lynched)

Good roles to keep from the town (4):
cop
watcher
tracker
doctor

Good for town and mafia (4)
bulletproof (also immune to bomb)
commuter (cannot commute in back to back nights)
JOAT (1-shot cop, doctor and vigilante)
inventor (1-shot rolecop, roleblock and hide - only dies if hiding behind a player that is killed)

by **Ragian** on Thu Mar 08, 2012 1:01 pm

Back from study tour. Will read up on this ASAP.

by **shieldgenerator7** on Thu Mar 08, 2012 1:19 pm

Ah, I like your idea pmc. I didn't think of it that way. So are you saying mafia would have chosen 1 role from each of those groups?

by **alt1978** on Thu Mar 08, 2012 1:48 pm

Thanks shield and pmc for the lists...i know for me those have helped me get a better grasp on what to even be looking for. Is there any value in searching out the least likely overall roles to be chosen? For example...if there are 2 or 3 roles on here that just don't sound all that appealing or interesting to anyone...if those were identified...wouldn't it seem scummy if someone then claimed those roles? I'm not going as far to say everyone should quote the last role on their list...but maybe some folks with more experience would like to speak to this point and we can identify fishy claims. Loved person comes to mind but maybe I just don't get the appeal.