AndyDufresne wrote:Okay, interesting things of note. Bare with me if you can:[spoiler=Kwanton - Sunday, July 24th]
kwanton wrote:Mom and sons is most likely mafia in my mind. Robot mafia is the only other "bad" group that comes to mind and appears in the show often enough so thats also a possibility.
Being mildly familiar with flavor (lol) I think you guys might be off on the doomsday device. Professor farnsworth had a collection of them in the show. If hes not an inventor role I'll be very surprised. And if I remember correctly, inventors just use an item randomly without being told what it does.
[/spoiler]
So we all know now that Kwanton was Mafia (Elzar). The other confirmed Mafia was Freezie (Lrrr). It is interesting that our of the two mafia we've grabbed so far, they were a part of neither the robot mafia nor Mom and Sons. I'm not sure if it was coincidence, or if Kwanton was trying to steer us down a specific path away from 'Real Mafia' roles. Anyways, worth noting.================
[spoiler=Kwanton - Monday, August 1st]
kwanton wrote:Alright, I can get behind strike's case on naxus. It's the strongest one posted so far today. Naxus seemed way too eager to try and feed the fire for quick lynch bandwagons and kept bringing up deadline as pressure. Normally I wouldn't this type of play especially scummy, except for the fact that it was day 1. In all honesty naxus could have really been trying to do the town thing and trying to lynch for info (like Gilligan said before about using a mislynch) but it really isn't super-important to lynch someone day 1. I know that suggesting no lynch day 1 is a big no-no here but in my opinion pushing so hard for a random lynch is just as bad (yesterday there was no serious wagon. All of it was random IMO). Mislynches may give us information but its really not worth it if there isn't any real suspicion on the wagon target. Pushing a wagon like this on days 2-4 depending on the size of the game is better, because you have more reads on the wagon target, but on day 1 its like flipping a coin (you can argue that wagons always have some reasoning behind them, but when going on reasons like inactivity or voting patters during the RVS day 1 its completely random and saying it isn't is kinda BS lol).
But there's really no point in me reiterating strike's post. I think his case against naxus is good so I'll just go into the other cases presented today.
As for the other cases, the one on fircoal is extremely weak. I don't think his actions were particulary weird for him. Like I said, day 1 is different from every other day and from what I've seen fircoal usually doesn't get too into day 1 random voting. He's definitely let things slide before in other game's day 1s, however he is much more dedicated to his cases later into the game. He's neutral at best for me.
The case on freezie is better and is the second strongest after the one on naxus. Its basically the same as the one on naxus but not as strong. Freezie was very passive about jumping bandwagons and he wasnt pushing as hard as nax was so if I had to choose between the two, strike's case on nax is that much stronger. Freezie leaning slightly scum to me.
Case on gilligan is also pretty eh. He admitted to skimming and thats bad sure but is there any real way for us to know if he's telling the truth about that? .I'd rather reach a lynch based on tells and vote patterns than something Gill said that could be WIFOM.The other point brought up against him is that he said he had no problem giving up his role but was being vague about it in related posts. I'm completely with Gilligan on this one. He's expressed that he's a power role and he isn't willing to give up free info to everyone unless he needs to, which is a townie train of thought. Again that's WIFOM tho so I can't make too much out of it but his actions haven't struck me as scummy. My read on Gilligan is neutral/slightly town.
In fact, FOS on drunkmonkey/sax for implying that he should claim with such little pressure on him (I say little pressure because it's not appropriate to claim unless you're around lynch-3 or lynch-2 when scum/3rd party together could push a weak wagon straight to a lynch.)
vote naxus
[/spoiler]
This post is interesting for a number of reasons I think. - When it comes down to talking about Freezie (who we later learned was Mafia) he tried to play off that he was interested in the case, but that Strike Wolf's 'Naxus Case' was better/stronger.
- In regards to his discussion about Fircoal and Gilligan, both of these two have been up on suspicions, and have been FOSed/voted on by various players. It is interesting to note I think that Kwanton was pretty quick and easy to dismiss cases about both of these two players, writing them off as weak. To divert attention away? Maybe. I'm not sure---because Freezie does hop on the Fircoal bandwagon, but was called out by Pancakemix for doing so.
=============
[spoiler=Kwanton - Monday, August 1st]
kwanton wrote:strike wolf wrote:That being said I would rather you focus your efforts on cases and analysis andy. To come in here not even comment on the current cases and then present an argument that will naturally be full of wifom seems at best a distraction from legitimate arguments taking place within the thread.
I'm all for andy or whoever else bringing up a case if they think there's real suspicion. Even though there was a pretty big logical flaw in andy's case, it can still provide us with reads. In fact, as far as I'm concerned people's cases on other's are far more useful for me for getting tells than the cases themselves. In other words, I will analyze the way people pursue their leads to find scum so it doesn't matter how strong the lead is. And let's not forget andy also brought up the case against freezie which is one of the better ones so far this game after the case on naxus.
So far, the way that people have been presenting their suspicions and following their leads, leads me to think that:
strike: leaning town
andy: leaning town
sax/drunk: leaning slightly scum
freezie: leaning scum
naxus: probable scum
I have neutral reads on everyone else. (FYI: Leaning doesnt mean I'm sure of it. Just slightly more one way then the other. strike and andy aren't completely off the hook yet.)
[/spoiler]
With this post, I started to wonder more about connections between Strike Wolf and Kwanton. He follows Strike Wolf's lead in regards to Naxus, and notes him as leaning town. In all fairness, he notes me as leaning town as well, but he made sure in his previous post to point out that my case was flawed and not as a good as the Naxus case which he saw as real gold.================
[spoiler=Kwanton - Monday, August 1st]
kwanton wrote:Actually I've only had enough experience playing with one of those people to be confident enough to use metagame and that's freezie. My reads on everyone including freezie were based completely on how they've acted this game and not on how they've been acting previous games.
Obviously I don't have any reads on sax's play because of the inactivity. However, drunk monkey's pressuring of haggis for being reluctant to reveal his role details doesn't sit right with me. If there is an important power role (haggis said he was important late game) then I want them to shut up unless they are close to being lynched. No reason to give mafia free info unless we have to. Granted, drunk wasn't exactly pushing for haggis to claim but he was pointing a finger at him for not giving info out freely. That's why I've only FOS'd drunk so far and labeled him as only slightly leaning scum.
[/spoiler]
Here Kwanton is suspicious of Saxlad/Drunkmonkey. I don't think there is too much to make out of this post, other than to note that he previously noted he was 'leaning slightly mafia' in regards to Freezie as well. Could be coincidental though.
=================
[spoiler=Kwanton - Tuesday, August 2nd]
kwanton wrote:It's more of a crazy crackpot theory at this point. I'm still hashing it out in my head and figuring out if it makes sense. I don't want to take away from more thought-out cases like the one on naxus so I won't go into it until I have it figured out more. There are just several things with the way day 1 and night 1 played out that don't sit right with me and I have no idea what to make of it.
Speaking of naxus, seriously no one else thinks its a strong enough case to put pressure on him? There's no way I'm the only one who finds him somewhat scummy.
[/spoiler]
Here Kwanton pushes once again for Strike Wolf's 'Naxus Case'.====================
[spoiler=Kwanton - Tuesday, August 2nd]
kwanton wrote:I'd also like to add robot mafia to that list.
Possible mafia factions:
Mom + 3 sons
or
Robot mafia don +clamps and the other robot.
Brains make no sense with the flavor. Mafia made up from a jumbled group of villains is possible yes, but I don't think it's likely. There's already a few groups in the show that are scummy and would make much more sense for flavor.
Scammers are plausible since they did have a doomsday device. Except for the fact that the doomsday device makes more sense as coming from farnsworth.
Also, the first page says that this game has VT's, and night one flipped a SANE cop and a CPR doc which are usually roles one sees in a non-vanilla mafia. This means that with 17 players and some VTs theres at LEAST 2 cops and 2 docs (well it means we have at least 2 cops, the mod could have chose to screw us over by only giving us the one CPR doc but I don't find that likely; where theres a variation of a doc, there's usually a regular doc). This is just me but in a 17 player game with VTs I would put in semi-useful town roles like this to balance out a powerful third-party, such as a cult (YIVO).
SK is obviously santa claws. No doubt about it.
17 players
3-4 mafia (3 if robot/4 if mom)
1 sk
1 cult leader
11-12 townies of which I'd say 7 would be power roles (based on my knowledge of flavor and what roles I think would suit characters)
OR
If I am wrong about the cult, there could very well be two mafia factions. Again, 17 player game and we have weird town power roles which makes me think the mod balanced town against something.
If this is the case:
3 mafia
3 mafia
1 sk
10 town of which I'd say 5-6 are power roles
First one is the more likely setup IMO
[/spoiler]
This is really a great post. Earlier, I pointed out the connection so far that Mafia have been...well...not the Robot Mafia or Mom and Sons. Here, Kwanton addresses the idea of a 'jumbled bad-guy mafia' as...'not likely.' He is really pushing the flavor idea, pointing us in the direction of looking for Robot Mafia and Mom and Sons. He notes that there are 3 Robot Mafia and 4 Mom and Sons. The 2 Mafia we've hit so far, as mentioned, don't fit the reality of the pattern as we know thus far.
He does make a point about having 2 Mafias, which would make things for us town more difficult. If this is the case, there may be a Robot Mafia, and a jumbled mafia group, like which perhaps Freezie and Kwanton were members in.==============
[spoiler=Kwanton - Wednesday, August 3rd]
kwanton wrote:jonty125 wrote:strike wolf wrote:As far as Jonty...I can kind of understand tthe argument going over ones head defense (it can be related to the noob defense but is a bit different) so I don't have any problem with that response. I would recommend though if you do feel this way that a second read and if you still don't get it asking for clarification.
I understand the cases it just as I metioned the term 'Mafia Godfather' sprung to mind when Gil said he wanted to be invstiagted but not killed.
Something like this is what I was thinking before when I asked our mod if the movies counted. Something just struck me as odd when gilligan asked for doc protect and cop invsigation yesterday, and then BOTH happen to die night 1. The only reason I didn't say anything is that it makes no sense with the death scenes.
I also couldn't think of any characters from the show where gilligan would know TSL's alignment without a doubt. I have reason to believe it is not a kif/amy lover scenario but I won't give more details than that. Fry/Leela couldn't really be considered lovers in the show so that doesn't make sense either. Some kind of nibblonian masonry would be possible especially with nibbler in the game, but its unlikely unless the brains are the big bad group here. Hermes/his wife are too minor of a couple really.
If you think through all the main characters from the show none of them really make sense as knowing each other's alignmnt. Of course this is just speculation and honestly, the flavor in the scene implies hes telling the truth. No real concrete suspicion here besides just having a bad feeling about it. However, tsl and gilli are not completely off the hook yet either.
[/spoiler]
Not much here, some speculation about Saxlad/drunkmonkey and Gilligan again. But interesting to note I think with his previous 'leaning scum.'===========
[spoiler=Kwanton - Saturday, August 6th]
kwanton wrote:I'm going to agree with strike here.
If conversation has stagnated, new cases really aren't going to present themselves.
The two cases I was willing to pursue today, naxus and freezie, are kind of dead since they've posted believable defenses. I'm currently at a loss.
[/spoiler]
Again, mentioning of the Naxus case, though talks about a believable defense (which made him do an unvote quick).============
[spoiler=Strike Wolf - Thursday, August 25th]
strike wolf wrote:So...
Nag-Dr. Zoidberg: CPR Doc (deceased)
Talapus-Nibbler:sane cop (deceased)
Freezie-Lrrr: mafia goon (deceased). Formed/supported cases against Gilligan, Fircoal and Andy
Kwanton- Elzar: Mafia goon (deceased). Supported case on Naxus and freezie. Somewhat defended Andy
Haggis & Drunk: claimed masons or lovers (alive)
Pancake- claimed Hypnotoad: roleblocker (alive) claims to have blocked /.
/-Santa Claws: SK repotedly blocked by Pancake
Tails-???
Commander-???
Naxus-???
Andy-???
Jonty-???
Strike wolf-town
Fircoal-???. Doesn't appear to be related to mafia
Metsfanmax-???
gilligan-??? Doesn't appear to be related to mafia.
I didn't get around to making a full analysis but if I dont post it now i dont think ill get around to finishing it any time soon.
Out of the unknowns beyound what I listed there...I think Gilligan and Fircoal probably aren't mafia and I'm leaning town with Andy and Jonty as well. I have kind of a neutral read on tails and pretty much no read on Mets which is interesting in it's own way that he doesn't stand out in any way. My feelings regarding Naxus and commander haven't really changed since yesterday.
Fastposted to the extreme:
I would doubt he is related to Zap they have nothing to do with each other in the show or otherwise.
POTC is short for Pirates of the Carribean. It was a former Safariguy mafia game on the site and he's referring to the speed lynch of streaker which lead to a scum lynch but no new information.
[/spoiler]
Strike Wolf in this post sort of writes off Fircoal and Gilligan as probably not Mafia, which kind of jives with what Kwanton was originally doing in one of the first posts I grabbed.==============
[spoiler=Strike Wolf - Friday, August 26th]
strike wolf wrote:Context mostly. I don't see any odd interactions between either Kwan and Gilligan or Gilligan and Freezie. Particularly from how gilligan was acting. Plus from at least the way I think about playing mafia. As a goon I am less willing to start cases against fellow mafia members. I tend to visualize myself as one of the mafias least valuable members, so I tend to go with a style of play that sacrifices myself rather than exposes teammates. Therefore I don't find it very likely that Freezie would go out of his way to build a case against a fellow mafia member and his unwillingness to stick with the case I find as much demonstrative of his general scumminess as anything else. When you add into the fact I believe that the probable number of scum is 4 considering the set up with at least a godfather and another mafia power role (role blocker most likely but with an SK in play, I can't rule out a mafia doc or a mafia cop), I don't think freezie would start a case that could potentially sell a fellow mafia member that is probably more important to the mafia than him down the river. Of course this is all based more or less on Wifom.
[/spoiler]
I think this post is really interesting. Strike Wolf doesn't see any strange interactions, but I think there are some between Kwanton and others, such as there in trying to A. write off Gilligan (and Fircoal) as weak cases or as not probable Mafia (which is what Strike Wolf does above), and B. We know that that Kwanton's 'leaning mafia' for Freezie is a tactic employed at least once.
Additionally, Strike Wolf talks about himself as Mafia in this post, which is a great thing to do if you are Mafia.=========================
Summary:
So what did I learn from all of this? I'm not sure, I'm still trying to formulate my thoughts around everything, but I'll share what I have gathered.
- The Mafia so far (Lrrr and Elzar) don't fit in with the path that Kwanton tried to divert us down. Strike Wolf similarly pushes for the Robot Mafia / Mom and Sons angle I think as well.
- I've had a feeling about Kwanton and Strike Wolf for a while, but I didn't mention much of anything since my evidence for Freezie I thought was better. Now that we know that Kwanton was Mafia, and with Kwanton's pushing for Strike Wolf's 'Naxus Case' as the strongest, the connection here becomes a little more clear.
[spoiler=AndyDufresne - Sunday, August 14th]AndyDufresne wrote:I've got my concerns about a number of people---Gilligan, Jonty, Kwanton, Strike Wolf to name a few, but I haven't formulated any strong cases in my own mind against any of them or others. I think I'm going to stick with my Freezie analysis and vote for the time being, though we still have 5 days.
--Andy
[/spoiler]
- Both Strike Wolf and Kwanton have talked about number of Mafia members, and have tried to keep that number low. What if there are 5 mafia members and an independent role we thought was in existence, isn't there?
- Both Strike Wolf and Kwanton have tried, at least to a degree, to divert attention away from Fircoal and Gilligan.
- Thus, I think my strongest suspicions fall on Strike Wolf, though I'm quite concerned about Fircoal and Gilligan and the interactions Strike Wolf and Kwanton had with them. Freezie was pushing hard for Gilligan and Fircoal at one point, so they are a bit of a gray area, but maybe that was all diversion, I don't know what to make of it yet.
FOS: Strike Wolf--Andy
I've read through most of the case, as best I could, and this is the most sensible argument brought up so far. This is basically my first game, so I don't really know how to read into it, but if Andy points out strike and gets killed afterwards, I think it deserves some looking into. I also noticed that a lot of others seemed to ignore it in a rush to lynch /, and I just wanted to hear your thoughts.