Game of Thrones Night 3: The King's Hand, Justice and Guard

by **Rodion** on Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:53 pm

I'm a third-party survivor.

I know the Game of Thrones name of the "cop", but I don't know which Conquer Club player is roleplaying that role.

by **edocsil** on Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:54 pm

Rodion wrote:I'm a third-party survivor.

I know the Game of Thrones name of the "cop", but I don't know which Conquer Club player is roleplaying that role.

Then tell us, it will not compromise the cop and scratch another possible player off the list.

by **Rodion** on Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:55 pm

Eddard Stark, the Hand of the King.

by **edocsil** on Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:58 pm

Rodion wrote:Eddard Stark, the Hand of the King.

Good. I was a bit worried he was an NPC.

by **Rodion** on Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:05 pm

Yes, that makes 3 confirmed towns as far as I know: Edoc, PCM and whoever claims Eddard Stark. A 4th would be whoever claims Robbert Stark, unless he is PCM, then we are back at 3.

by **Rodion** on Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:05 pm

Rodion wrote:Yes, that makes 3 confirmed towns as far as I know: Edoc, PCM and whoever claims Eddard Stark. A 4th would be whoever claims Robbert Stark, unless he is PCM, then you are back at 3.

EBWOP

by **edocsil** on Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:08 pm

The HOTK wouldn't investigate himself and I have seen no evidence of busdrivers.

by **edocsil** on Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:09 pm

edocsil wrote:The HOTK wouldn't investigate himself and I have seen no evidence of busdrivers.

whoops. Belay that Eddard=/=Rob

by **Rodion** on Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:13 pm

Posting so you're not forced to triple post.

by **BGtheBrain** on Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:36 pm

by **edocsil** on Fri Aug 19, 2011 4:08 pm

So my thoughts after digesting.

Living Players ~ 11

Mr. Squirrel
Pancake
Victor Sullivan Barristan Selmy
edocsil the Hound
bleed_green
kwanton
/
rodion Petyr Baelysh
strikewolf
btgthebrain

Living Known Players (Living and a scene from their eyes. Only playable characters have scenes from their viewpoint.)
HotK Cop
Rob Stark Vig
Arya Stark Unknown

Strongly Suspected Players ~ mentioned many times, no scene from their POV

Jaime Lanister
Ser Ilyn Pane
Robert Baratheon

Suspected Players ~ No scene, less often mentioned, lesser role in the show.

Tywin Lanister

So I suspect Rodion and Victor Sullivan are telling the truth with their identity, although for neither of them do we know their WC. With 11 players this leaves us with 8 unknown roles. 3 roles are in the game due to scenes from their POV and are town. That leaves 5 players. One of those I think is Robert Baratheon, this game would be strange without him and this brings us to 4 unknown players.

Back o day one Safari said this:

safariguy5 wrote:And the numbers for scum to win for my win condition says 3-4, so I'm guessing a 5-6 man mafia group.

He had no reason to lie and his logic is sound so 2 dead scum leaves us with 3-4 scum alive. The way I see things at worst there is one unknown town role lurking here.

Basically I want a mass claim so we know who not to vig kill during the night. Like I said 11 alive, 3-4 scum, 2 3rd partiers, that leaves us with 5-6 townies left. If Rob screws up tonight we could lose, if whoever gave me a kill last night can do it again we could lose even if Rob hits correctly. We are in a tight spot here.

I would like to know who the HotK, Robb, Arya, and Robert are. I would like to get the vig kill again to take another potshot. As the only known player to be town and to have killed a Lannister I don't see who else it could be given to. if all this goes like I ask Rob and I could very likely both kill scum and at worst kill one townie with a claim that is not proven by the scenes and one scum.

Also, due to recent increase in activity I would like to request for an extension on the day.

by **Rodion** on Fri Aug 19, 2011 4:20 pm

There are some inaccuracies there. I also think you jumped to conclusions too early when I have a lot more to answer if you ask the right questions.

by **edocsil** on Fri Aug 19, 2011 4:26 pm

Rodion wrote:There are some inaccuracies there. I also think you jumped to conclusions too early when I have a lot more to answer if you ask the right questions.

Then say the inaccuracies and spill what you have to spill. I spent a lot of time on that and it isn't something that will be dismissed with a oneliner.

by **Rodion** on Fri Aug 19, 2011 4:46 pm

But it's not fun that way! :lol:

Alright. HotK also has the option of vigging. Weird, since there were 3 NKs yesterday and that could mean 5-6 possible NKs in any given night with HotK deciding to vig, Talapus alive (hypothetically) and Daze's JOAT allowing a kill. That also reminds me that PCM is not technically cleared, as HotK may have decided to vig him tonight instead of outing himself, but he will most likely be cleared if he's alive by the beginning of D4.

The 5-6 mafia speculation is really poor. With at least 3 claimed 3rd-parties (Safari, Talapus and me), that would make this a 10-5 or 9-6 setup. I tend to think it's more 11-4 or 10-4 with another third-party player out there. My WC is roughly the opposite of Safari's: whereas Safari wants one side to win with few casualties, I want the winning side to win with several casualties. Safari wins with mafia if there are 3-4 mafia remaining; I win if there are 1-2 remaining. Safari wins with town if there are 5+ players remaining (including him); I win with town if there are 5- players remaining (including me). Technically, 5 players alive in a town win is a sweet spot that would allow both Safari and me to win together, but other than that a Safari win meant a Rodion loss.

Anyway, considering that he wanted one side to win decisively and he won with 3-4 mafias alive, I think 4 is the starting number of mafia players. I would have a hard time imagining 5 mafia: that means Safari could do an outstanding job of helping the mafia have a perfect win and lose because there were 5 mafia remaining and his WC stated 3-4. My conclusion is that the remaining 11 players are either 8 town + 2 mafia (+ myself) or 7 town + 2 mafia (+ another 3rd-party + myself).

And this is how we come to the favour I might need: if town lynches or nightkills mafia member #3 we will probably enter D4 with 7-9 living players and only 1 mafia remaining. Lynching that remaining mafia player would mean town wins with 6-8 players alive and thus my WC is not fullfilled. If town gets this close to a win with so many people remaining, I'll have to ask you to mislynch/no lynch (the first non-confirmed town player that volunteers himself) until we go down to 6 players. Then you can kill the last mafia and I win by being one of the 5 last players).

I still have more knowledge to reveal.

by **edocsil** on Fri Aug 19, 2011 6:07 pm

4 initial scum may be correct. however, if there are 3 potential NKs out there in the night things could get hairy for the town real fast. There also is the issue of the investigation proof godfather. It is just as likely that the godfather is PCM as anyone else. If that is the case then the info you have given us so far is useless. How are you at gambling? We have the ability to kill 5 people in a day, 3 town kills 1 mafia kill and one lynch. If we manage to kill all the remaining mafia tonight you will not win, if we see tomorrow you will very likely win. Better odds then most the townies due to the fact that no one wants to kill you.

by **Rodion** on Fri Aug 19, 2011 6:30 pm

I would not consider 3 town NKs a given. Robb could account for 1. Eddard could be the second, but he may prefer to investigate instead if he can (I have no idea whether he has limited shot investigations or whether he can investigate + vig on the same night). Finally, the mysterious vig kill you got last night is not granted to happen tonight.

And Safari said the godfather was Cersei (Nagerous). Is it possible that Nag's N2 death made someone else inherit the godfather role and thus appear innocent under investigation on that very same night? I find it highly unlikely. I also find it unlikely that Safari lied about Cersei being the godfather.

by **kwanton** on Fri Aug 19, 2011 6:51 pm

Claim time???

CLAIM TIME!!!

I've been so anxious to do this:
Rob Stark - Vigilante. Yup I gotcha nag.
I have no problem claiming (as I've said before, a few pages prior) because I don't trust that I wont miskill. I've read everyone's theories about how many mafia are left and IMO I think it's likely there's 1 or 2 left, given the amount of 3rd parties. With 2 maximum mafia players alive, and it's reasonable that one of them is a GF, I have a 50% chance of a kill not working even if I guess right. Unless we have a definitive scum-catch where a NK is favorable to a lynch (unlikely unless we catch 2 scum in one day) I will not be using my NK. Consider me effectively to be vanilla at this point.

On a side not, I was laughing all the way to the bank at this post:

safariguy5 wrote:Speaking of which, I've got a pretty good idea who's on my bandwagon.

1. Townies who are afraid I might give mafia their night action.

2. Mafia who are afraid I might give town their night action.

3. Submarining Town

4. Submarining Mafia

Who's probably not on my bandwagon?

1. HoTK

2. Queen Cersi

3. Town who think I might benefit them

4. Mafia who think I might benefit them.

So yeah, good luck figuring out who is who for a lynch target tomorrow guys. Not to mention you're probably going to be at least 1 townie down.

Trolololololololol. The safari lynch was exactly how I knew nagerous was Cersei without a doubt. I didn't kill him N1 because I assumed Cersei was the godfather. After the day 2 flip I knew he was a roleblocker tho and ganked him

Make it more obvious nag

Clear me kthnx.

by **Rodion** on Fri Aug 19, 2011 7:01 pm

Kwanton, I fail to understand how suspecting Nag/Cersei to be the godfather would prevent you from attempting to kill him. Did you target anyone for a NK on N1?

by **Rodion** on Fri Aug 19, 2011 7:04 pm

Edit: I understand that godfathers are traditionally 1-shot bulletproof, but vigging the godfather to remove his bulletproof is still better than not vigging him.

by **Mr. Squirrel** on Fri Aug 19, 2011 7:19 pm

Well this has all happened very fast.

Rodion, I want a full claim of what your abilities are. Do you know only the actions of Eddard or of other players as well? Just knowing the hand's actions seems a little underpowered if you ask me.

PCM also needs to stop in her and respond to what has been said about him.

edocsil wrote:Were we ever show why Littlefinger betrayed? was there any mitigation or reason?

In the books, its mainly because he wants more power. He is a scheming bastard through all of the novels and betrays pretty much everyone he works with. He is neither a friend of the starks nor the lannisters. 3rd party checks out, imo.

To complement Edocsil's little list, I would like to confirm on of the members. I'm Robert Baratheon - King of Westeros. I won't go into my powers just yet though.

by **Rodion** on Fri Aug 19, 2011 7:37 pm

Passive #1: know whether Eddard Stark investigated or vigged and also know who was the target of such actions
Possible passive #2 : enable Eddard Stark to perform such actions

2 active abilities, but only 1 can be performed every night.
Active #1: frame (yes, I know, mafia power, probably desgined for me to help the mafia if town is doing too well - I never used it nor do I intend to)
Active #2: busdrive

N1 - swap Daze and Rodion
N2 - swap Daze and Rodion

Reasons why I swapped myself with Daze are rather obvious.

And, yes, I was likely targeted by the mafia for a N2 kill.

by **Victor Sullivan** on Fri Aug 19, 2011 7:40 pm

So that leaves /, BG, Bleed_Green, strike wolf, and PCM, yes?

With so many NKs I'd be surprised if there wasn't a doc or bulletproof. Could we speculate from there? (And by we, I mean edocsil and Mr. Squirrel)

-Sully

by **Mr. Squirrel** on Fri Aug 19, 2011 8:18 pm

Rodion wrote:Possible passive #2 : enable Eddard Stark to perform such actions

Unless your PM explicitly says this, I doubt it. Especially, considering my role.

by **pancakemix** on Fri Aug 19, 2011 9:39 pm

Mr. Squirrel wrote:PCM also needs to stop in her and respond to what has been said about him.

You mean if I'm alive tomorrow I'm cleared? I can live with that.

Again, I really don't know the flavor here. Is there someone who would be better suited to a GF role than Cersei? It seemed like she was the top choice earlier for that role.

This is getting fairly close to mass claim capacity right now (all flavor, I know, but the point stands). I'll drop my name if necessary, but not before.

by **edocsil** on Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:23 pm

I forgot that the queen was the godfather. I just hope no one else has investigation protection. It can make such a mess.

pancakemix wrote:
Mr. Squirrel wrote:PCM also needs to stop in her and respond to what has been said about him.

You mean if I'm alive tomorrow I'm cleared? I can live with that.

Again, I really don't know the flavor here. Is there someone who would be better suited to a GF role than Cersei? It seemed like she was the top choice earlier for that role.

This is getting fairly close to mass claim capacity right now (all flavor, I know, but the point stands). I'll drop my name if necessary, but not before.

Hell we got momentum going, half the players I am looking for have claimed already. May as well finish it.

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