Ah, good morning everyone.
I can't believe that we're still having the no-lynch conversation. I'm of the impression that if someone still can't grasp why a no-lynch only hurts the town after having it repeatedly explained to them, then there's probably a lot of other subtleties of the game that they're not likely to pick up on.
As far as how many mafia there might be, 3-4 sounds about right given 15 people. 4 actually might be high, and if it's 4 there's probably no serial killer and our cop probably will be on the level and not naive or insane. Of course, after playing MB's game, there's no way of telling. Auto's first-page post could be on the level, and there's only one mafia. Hard to tell at this point.
Moving on...
It's still hard for me to determine who's acting scummy and who just looks scummy. Plus, as I've said in other games, there's always (at least) two ways of looking at people's behavior:
not posting a lot? could be scum, could be noob, could be bored vanilla, could be someone who didn't pay their DSL bill
posting too much? could be scum, could be aggressive type, could be wicked
changing their votes a lot? could be scum, could be a person easily swayed by the latest theory
not voting? could be scum, could be that the person can't make up their mind
And on day one we're simply not going to have the breadth of info to make super good decisions. Yeah, people's game history can help, but only to an extent. Besides, any player worth their salt is going to mix up their style. I don't remember exactly where, but way earlier in the thread wicked said something along the lines of "I'm not acting the way I usually act when I'm mafia", which struck me as having the whiff of horseshit.
Anyway. It's not like I super suspect wicked. The weird thing is that I don't think she's been playing all that differently. She's always has a super low tolerance for noobish mistakes. I recall in my first game she spent the first two days tearing supercram a new bodily orifice.
At this point I don't really know who to suspect. FD seems to be pushing a bit too hard, but in a way he was a point. With another 6 days until our deadline, with this group of players, we could have a hundred-page thread by then.
I do think it's a good idea to take a hard look at people who just can't help but act scummy. Nothing the mafia likes better than having some of those people hanging around in the later stages of the game to serve as convenient lynchees. Spin fit perfectly into that slot (especially given his 'hint', which I took to be role-fishing), but we're past that. Of course there's Wisse, who would be a convenient day one target, but even then the voting record won't help us a lot. With so many votes needed to lynch, yeah, there'll be mafia on the list, but there'll be more townies who voted because A) they think wisse is mafia or B) they're deeply annoyed by wisse's play style.
One person that fits well into that new-ish player role that we haven't heard from for a couple of days is Minkish, who I'd like to see drop by. So let's throw a
FOS Minkish
just to maybe prod him into action. Then again, he may have forgotten to pay his DSL bill.
That's where I'm at right now. I'm not going to be around much this afternoon and evening, but I'll be around the next hour or two, and I'll hopefully be able to check in later tonight.