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Going "suicidal" on the first move-Why so many?

Postby detlef on Tue Feb 20, 2007 9:29 am

I've often marveled at the all-to-common habit I've seen of guys basically going suicidal on their first move of the game in some dogged pursuit of a card. Certainly the first part of this has happened to all of us. You're leading off the game so you've got no easy attacks. You deploy your 3 armies, roll the dice, and bam, you lose 2. Pissed but undaunted, realizing that, although your hopes are slim, if you take the next two, you're still in business. Bam, you lose 2 more. OK, now you're hosed and there's nothing you can do about it but make it worse by then making a bunch of useless attacks rolling 2 die vs 2 die.

I sit there watching as all their armies go from 3 to 1 all over the board. Then the inevitable, "Man I'm getting crappy rolls!" in the chat area. If you are referring to your first two sets, then I hear you, happens to me more than I'd like. However, if you're talking about the fact that somehow you didn't overcome insanely bad odds with the rest? Wouldn't know what you're talking about.

I bring this up now because I typically only see this behavior from noobs. However, in a game I just started, I watched someone with over 2000 pts do the same thing (albeit, he didn't go ballistic all over the board).

Is there something I am missing here? Is this ever a good idea? By and large, I avoid any attacks where my odds of success are less than 50% unless there's a big pay-off waiting for me (like eliminating a player and taking his cards or taking the last country of a one border continent that I'll be able to protect).
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Postby yeti_c on Tue Feb 20, 2007 9:42 am

I've done this far too often recently and have noticed my mistake... I plan to never do this again!!

I have seen some people do it in No cards games though - which is even more amusing!!!

C.
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Postby Kahless on Tue Feb 20, 2007 9:59 am

I think it's just human nature, after a bad run of form in anything, people tend to think things can't get any worse and just risk everything. (Like the old man in The Life of Brian, "Jehovah, Jehovah, Jehovah :D )
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Postby detlef on Tue Feb 20, 2007 10:09 am

Kahless wrote:I think it's just human nature, after a bad run of form in anything, people tend to think things can't get any worse and just risk everything. (Like the old man in The Life of Brian, "Jehovah, Jehovah, Jehovah :D )

Well that would make sense if, in fact, the odds weren't getting worse. I mean, if you are playing roulette and your number just isn't coming up, it isn't so foolish to think that, at some point, it will.

However, this isn't the case since you have barely a 20% of success when attacking 3 armies v 3 armies. That's asking for a lot of make-up luck.
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Postby Kugelblitz22 on Tue Feb 20, 2007 10:16 am

yeti_c wrote:I've done this far too often recently and have noticed my mistake... I plan to never do this again!!

I have seen some people do it in No cards games though - which is even more amusing!!!

C.


Lol, I was going to mention that I have seen this in flat rate card games but, you win. I know the feeling though, even though I don't do this. It's like two parts anger, one part fudge it.
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Postby vgmmaster on Tue Feb 20, 2007 10:45 am

I almost never do it in escalating, but I've done it a few times in Flat Rate. In Flat Rate though, you can't really blame a person for going "suicidal".
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Postby detlef on Tue Feb 20, 2007 10:55 am

vgmmaster wrote: In Flat Rate though, you can't really blame a person for going "suicidal".

Why not? Tell me, have you ever managed to make a comeback after losing so many troops off the bat? I can say that, while losing 4 troops off the bat and quitting then is no way to start a game, I have, more than once managed to recover and later win.
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Postby Bad Speler on Tue Feb 20, 2007 11:17 am

I have a tendancy to that...its just to tempting to get a card. One bad thing is I completely killed myself on the first turn of one gae...and then realised it was a no cards game.
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Postby khazalid on Tue Feb 20, 2007 11:22 am

quick question...

which colonel were you playing with who did that?

id love to get him in a few of my games
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Postby Dr. Jim on Tue Feb 20, 2007 4:06 pm

While it may seem suicidal, it's just as suicidal to not get that card. One must also take note that people don't generally attack people just because they have 1 army, they attack in order to get a landmass.
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Postby thegreathal on Tue Feb 20, 2007 4:36 pm

Dr. Jim wrote:While it may seem suicidal, it's just as suicidal to not get that card. One must also take note that people don't generally attack people just because they have 1 army, they attack in order to get a landmass.


Yeah. Difficult situation.

Then there's the 'I didn't mean to just do this!' At what point is it wise to quit; I just lost 9 armies coming from separate countries and took 1 out. Useful post though.

I though Flat Rate suicide is foolish; it's a flat rate. Escalating is where it gets more and more important, right?
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Postby detlef on Tue Feb 20, 2007 4:55 pm

Dr. Jim wrote:While it may seem suicidal, it's just as suicidal to not get that card. One must also take note that people don't generally attack people just because they have 1 army, they attack in order to get a landmass.
I'm talking about peopel attacking 3 v3 in the first round of a game because the initial 6 v3 ended up 2 v3 after two rolls. Cards are nice and all, but so is not decimating yourself against horrible odds.
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Postby Kahless on Tue Feb 20, 2007 5:41 pm

thegreathal wrote:I though Flat Rate suicide is foolish; it's a flat rate. Escalating is where it gets more and more important, right?


Flat rate suicide isn't as bad as escalating suicide since with a flat rate, the sooner you cash in those cards, the better
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Postby DeCaptain on Tue Feb 20, 2007 5:58 pm

in both escalating and no cards games i often dont even attack first round. flat rate i think its fairly important to get a card.
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Postby beafraid on Tue Feb 20, 2007 7:06 pm

if you're in an escalating card game, and its down to you and some other bozo, and the bonus is at 45, and hes one card ahead of you, about to cash and win the game, you'll feel pretty silly for not getting that card the first round and keeping with everyone else.
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Postby wolvenlightning on Tue Feb 20, 2007 7:46 pm

honestly ive done it...


not to get a card but because of such a horrible starting position that if I do happen to get two consecutive flattenings grace a les dice, there's really no point in resisting... no hope of getting a continent ever, so might as well clear the game out of my active games so I can try my luck in another one.



To stray off topic a bit, that's why I prefer doubles and triples... if I have a bad position and get screwed by the dice, my partners might not, so I can at least help them out by surviving. In singles games, there is no point if all signs are directing you towards "STOP PLAYING THIS MAP NOW"
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Postby DeCaptain on Tue Feb 20, 2007 8:51 pm

beafraid wrote:if you're in an escalating card game, and its down to you and some other bozo, and the bonus is at 45, and hes one card ahead of you, about to cash and win the game, you'll feel pretty silly for not getting that card the first round and keeping with everyone else.


.....ok but come talk to me when u have to cash in for 4 :roll:
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Postby detlef on Tue Feb 20, 2007 9:56 pm

beafraid wrote:if you're in an escalating card game, and its down to you and some other bozo, and the bonus is at 45, and hes one card ahead of you, about to cash and win the game, you'll feel pretty silly for not getting that card the first round and keeping with everyone else.

Dude, if there is ever a game that you don't want a card in the first round it's escalation. I want to be back of the line when everyone is forced to cash in after 5 cards.

None the less, it's not like one can simply decide to go out and get a card. You're talking about a less than 1 in 4 chance of success. So you start with 7 countries. You are already down one that got you into this mess. Now you are going to adopt a strategy that is likely to leave you with only 3-4 viable countries in the vain effort to get a card? So you can be first in line to cash in for 4 pts?
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Postby Kahless on Wed Feb 21, 2007 9:18 am

beafraid wrote:if you're in an escalating card game, and its down to you and some other bozo, and the bonus is at 45, and hes one card ahead of you, about to cash and win the game, you'll feel pretty silly for not getting that card the first round and keeping with everyone else.


In this case it's a bit like a 2 point conversion in football. It might be crucial at the end of the game, but you can't tell during the 1st quarter. That's why most players are like NFL coaches and take the conservative option.
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Postby detlef on Wed Feb 21, 2007 10:45 am

Kahless wrote:
beafraid wrote:if you're in an escalating card game, and its down to you and some other bozo, and the bonus is at 45, and hes one card ahead of you, about to cash and win the game, you'll feel pretty silly for not getting that card the first round and keeping with everyone else.


In this case it's a bit like a 2 point conversion in football. It might be crucial at the end of the game, but you can't tell during the 1st quarter. That's why most players are like NFL coaches and take the conservative option.


Actually, it's like the 2 pt conversion but for a completely different reason. The 2 pt conversion is bad odds, so there's no reason to attempt one unless getting the near sure-thing one point is useless to you. ie: you just scored a TD with 1:00 to go and now lead by 1 pt. without the extra point. Leading by two does you no more good than by 1 so you're willing to assume the poor odds of at least getting something useful.

Don't get me started on how stupid it is when coaches go for two when it is not absolutely crutial. They should be fired and beaten on the spot. Like when it's the 3rd period and they go for it so they'll lead by 7 instead of 6. OK genius, what if you fail, then the other team kicks two FGs. Now you trail instead of being tied.

Once again, escalation is a game where you sort of want to go last. Assuming that you are having a decent game, you'll want to be the last one to 5 cards and be able to turn for 15 instead of 4 pts. One could argue that if it is your turn first it's worth it to deploy and not even attack to put you at the end of the line. Now if that's true, it is certainly true to not make a bunch of ill-advised attacks to get a card.
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