grease monkey strength formula

[logitech007]

Did a search and the best that I could find was that strength equaled number of armies plus potential armies minus number of countries*2/3. This doesn't seem to work out.

Anyone know how strength is calculated and the reasoning behind it?

[tahitiwahini]

I'll take a stab at it.

s = a + p - (2/3 * c)

a is the number of armies one currently has (in other words it's the Armies/Turn w/o bonus)

p is the number of additional armies one can expect in the next turn based
only on the number of countries one has

c is the number of contries one controls

I think you will agree that strength has something to do with the number of armies one already (a) has and the number of extra armies one is going to get in the next turn (p).

But what is the - (2/3 * c) term doing there? I think it's trying to take account of the concentration factor, that is, how densely populated with armies one's countries are. If one's countries are more densely populated then they are easier to defend and easier to attack from. That is, given a constant number of armies, those armies are relatively stronger when the number of countries is smaller than when the number of countries one controls is larger.

This gives the following results, if the number of armies per turn are held constant (p = 3):

Code: Select all

armies      countries
--------      ----------
11             3
16             6
15             9


All three of the above cases have the same strength (s = 12).

Is this realistic? It's saying a player with 11 armies controlling 3 countries is as strong as a player with 16 armies controlling 9 countries. Sound reasonable?

What is not represented in the strength calculation? Two very important things: control of continents for which a bonus number of armies are received, and possession of a playable set of cards for which bonus armies are received.

The card iissue would seem to be the easier one to program, since the number of cards is known (that is, in parentheses following the player's name). Presumably it could also be known which colors a player has and the assumption could be made that cards would be played as soon as possible and not deferred.

The control of continents would be more difficult to calculate, but could probably be done. The information necessary to do this calculation is not currently present in the visible game log, but I guess it could be added. Though that is an issue for the game developer and probably beyond the control of the add-on script developer. You can't do the calculation without the necessary information (being present in the game log I think is required for the script to work properly).

So a more accurate strength calculation might look like this:

s = a + P - (2/3 * c)

where P is defined as:

P = p + x + y + z

where
x is the number of additional armies due to controlling a continent

y is the number of additional armies due to cashing in a set of cards

z is the number of bonus armies due to cashing in a card for a country one controls

[foolish_yeti]

Yeah I don't trust the strength calculator that much- only to give a general sense....board position has so much to do with strength- also what's going on with other players as well.

[sully800]

The strength calculator is by no means accurate, Tr0y just added it for a bit of fun. I personally think he should just eliminate it because anyone who knows how to play ignores it completely and pays attention to the more important factors of positioning.

[killza666jrr]

there is no stregth if u look at 1 of the top 6 u will find.. how the dice work. it is all caculated from random.org

[silvanthalas]

there is no stregth if u look at 1 of the top 6 u will find.. how the dice work. it is all caculated from random.org

Are you on crack?

Nobody was talking about the dice on this thread.

[logitech007]

I agree with everything tahitiwahini said. I was mainly curious about the actual calculation--the a+p-(2/3*C)--as the numbers don't work. Of course, the number of cards and board position matters. While a strength calculation that takes the actual cards into account would be nice, it would take away from not being able to know the types of cards your opponents have (if you saw the strength jump after the 3rd or 4th card, you'd know a set was made). My friend suggested a probability based calculation if you wanted to take the cards into account.

[tahitiwahini]

While a strength calculation that takes the actual cards into account would be nice, it would take away from not being able to know the types of cards your opponents have (if you saw the strength jump after the 3rd or 4th card, you'd know a set was made).

You're right, I hadn't thought about the implication of factoring the cards into the calculation in the way I suggested. It would absolutely interfere with the game since we are supposed to know the number of cards our opponents have but not the colors and countries. Strength calculated the way I suggested would give players improper knowledge of what their opponents have. So scratch the y and z terms from the calculation.

It would still be nice to have the continent bonus factored into the strength calcualtion, but on the other hand it's pretty easy to calculate that oneself from looking at the map. Where I think the tool is most valuable is in keeping a running count of the armies and countries for each player. I often use that to determine at a glance who is leading, who can possibly be eliminated this round, etc. It's not the whole picture of course, but it's very helpful and a quick summary of important information to the game.