Conquer Club

can people tell me the percentage of times if the canidate is from there if the state usally votes for him





If so isn't that like 98% or 96% of black people voting for obama

monster10 wrote:If so isn't that like 98% or 96% of white people voting for mccain

EDIT: Mccain is from Arizona, %53.39 of the people there voted for McCain, 44.91% for Obama.

how about u don't change wat i said because i am pretty positve that is incorrect

monster10 wrote:how about u don't change wat i said because i am pretty positve that is incorrect

I'm just pointing out how incorrect and silly your argument is. I used the exact same argument you did, just changed it around so you could hear yourself from the other perspective.

But apart from questions of black and white: How often does the state a presidential candidate is from vote for that candidate?

MeDeFe wrote:But apart from questions of black and white: How often does the state a presidential candidate is from vote for that candidate?

I think the more accurate question is, based upon past trends of a state and the way the people of the state vote, how is that affected if the candidate is from the state in question?

IE:

Arizona normally goes democrat, but since mccain was from there it went republican.
Illinois normally goes republican, but since obama was from there it went democrat.
Texas normally goes democrat, but since the bush's were from there it went republican.
Arkansas normally goes republican, but since Clinton was from there it went democrat.
Massachusetts normally goes republican, but since kerry was from there it went democrat.
Tennessee normally goes republican, but since gore was from there it went democrat.

I don't have time to do all the math and statistics, and don't care to, because I feel the entire argument is flawed and irrelevant.

MeDeFe wrote:But apart from questions of black and white: How often does the state a presidential candidate is from vote for that candidate?

'While many successful candidates have won the presidency without winning their birth state, only three (James Knox Polk, Woodrow Wilson and Richard Nixon) have won election despite losing their state of residence. Polk is the only man to win the presidency but lose both states of birth and residence.'

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ma ... home_state

monster10 wrote:how about u don't change wat i said because i am pretty positve that is incorrect

Yes, I am also pretty positive that "wat you said" is incorrect. Please educate yourself. PLEASE.

As a quick nod towards OPs question, yes, a very heavy percentage of blacks voted for Obama, but a very heavy percentage of blacks also vote Democrat. If I remember correctly it was only about 5% more for Obama than your average Democratic president.

Frigidus wrote:As a quick nod towards OPs question, yes, a very heavy percentage of blacks voted for Obama, but a very heavy percentage of blacks also vote Democrat. If I remember correctly it was only about 5% more for Obama than your average Democratic president.

exactly what I was getting at. It's only the delta, or change, that is important. If obama was a republican, and 98% of blacks voted for obama, now THAT would be a stat of interest

Didn't Gore lose his home state in 2000?

bedub1 wrote:

MeDeFe wrote:But apart from questions of black and white: How often does the state a presidential candidate is from vote for that candidate?

Texas normally goes democrat, but since the bush's were from there it went republican.
Massachusetts normally goes republican, but since kerry was from there it went democrat.

Is this a joke?

jay_a2j wrote:Didn't Gore lose his home state in 2000?

Yes, but that's the exception.

Look at Walter Mondale. He got his ass kicked against Reagan but Minnesota still voted for him. Also, think about Dan Quayle. Most people thought he was a complete idiot, and yet Indiana still went for the Republicans that time during what was a slam dunk for Clinton. I think state loyalty does come into play for a presidential election.

I'm also confused because the title of this topic is Do states usually vote for the president if he from there and then the first post jumps right into race. I thought this was more about geography than ethnicity.

so is it fair to say where he is from matters who is going to vote for him just like colour,party,etc.

monster10 wrote:so is it fair to say where he is from matters who is going to vote for him just like colour,party,etc.

My opinion is that is DOES matter where a presidential candidate is from. But I wouldn't say it's the same as color or race. Most people who take the time to register as either a Democrat or Republican are going to vote that way in a general election.

It (race) definitely mattered in the 2008 election. Because of our history of screwing up blacks with slavery and denial of civil rights, I would say that there was a euphoria to vote for Obama simply because he was black. But I'm not saying that his positions didn't matter to the people who voted for him, it was just like an added bonus. We've never had a black president before so that was a very big deal. Now that that barrier has been broken, I don't think it's going to be a big deal until a different minority runs and has a chance. The next barrier to fall will probably be if a woman is elected. There you go - now we can start talking about whether gender matters.

This is the first ever thread that actually hurts my head when attempting to read it. Congratulations monster.

i hated how they thought they were changing histroy

to bad now they will "get the idea" that black people screw up countrys"lol's"

I think there is a home state affect, but it's a fairly small swing. My guess is that it's on the order of 5%, and it's probably a smaller affect for the VP. In other words, a given state will probably give about 5% more votes for a given ticket if the Presidential nominee is from that state than if he were from some other state. In other words, Arizona, which gave 53.4% to McCain would probably have only given him around 48-49% if he had been from some other state. With 3rd parties on the ballot, the Republicans probably still would have won Arizona, but it would have been really close. This is why Gore's presence on the ballot didn't swing Tennessee. Tennessee is pretty solidly Republican when it comes to national elections. So if they're normally around R+15 (15% more for Republican presidential nominees than for Democratic nominees), with Gore on the ballot they might have been closer to R+10.

I'm pulling all of the numbers in this post (except for the actual vote % in Arizona - I'm trusting the numbers posted previously in this thread) out of the air, so these may be way off, but they seem intuitively correct. What this indicates is that a Presidential nominee from a potential major swing state may have some additional strategic value. For example, a major Democratic Presidential nominee from Florida could swing that state and win the Presidency. Likewise, a major Republican (Santorum need not apply) from Pennsylvania could flip that state from leaning Democratic to leaning Republican and gain an edge in the electoral vote count.

bedub1 wrote:Texas normally goes democrat, but since the bush's were from there it went republican.

WTF? All but 1 county in Texas normally goes Republican.The last time Texas voted democrat was in 1976.

Edit: and keep in mind, that means voting for Carter after the Watergate scandal.

monster10 wrote:can people tell me the percentage of times if the canidate is from there if the state usally votes for him





If so isn't that like 98% or 96% of black people voting for obama

I am not so sure any candidate in history has ever garnered 96-98% from any state, except for washington DC, which is about 95% black(guess)...., there is however, one exception...

Iraq declared Saddam Hussein the winner Wednesday - by an 11 million-to-0 margin - in a war-shadowed referendum on his two-decade military rule, sending celebratory gunfire crackling from the streets and rooftops of Baghdad.

monster10 wrote:i hated how they thought they were changing histroy

to bad now they will "get the idea" that black people screw up countrys"lol's"

Why are you racist, monster10?

I was gonna call him out on saying "Illinois normally goes republican" (because we don't) but he said he didn't want to do the statistics... so whatever lol.

I think there have been 56 Presidential elections in the US so far (At least that's what Wikipedia says) and according to the list bedub linked to, a presidential candidate has lost the state where they were born 33 times and their state of residence 25 times.

Those numbers suggest there's no home bonus.

bedub1 wrote:Massachusetts normally goes republican, but since kerry was from there it went democrat.

I'm pretty sure that's wrong. Massachusetts is a heavily democratic state. You know, Kennedy legacy and all.

bradleybadly wrote:It (race) definitely mattered in the 2008 election. Because of our history of screwing up blacks with slavery and denial of civil rights, I would say that there was a euphoria to vote for Obama simply because he was black. But I'm not saying that his positions didn't matter to the people who voted for him, it was just like an added bonus. We've never had a black president before so that was a very big deal.

Heck yeah. I was disappointed with the results because I disagree with Obama's politics about 100%, but for me the one bright spot was that enough of the American electorate had finally grown up enough that we could elect a black president. I just wish it had been Condi Rice instead.

bradleybadly wrote:I'm also confused because the title of this topic is Do states usually vote for the president if he from there and then the first post jumps right into race. I thought this was more about geography than ethnicity.

He was trying to make a comparison between the "state" thing and the "race" thing. Up to that point it was a reasonable question except for the racist agenda behind it. He didn't actually disgrace himself until later when he said this:

monster10 wrote:to[sic] bad now they will "get the idea" that black people screw up countrys[sic]"lol's"

Monster, who did you learn your history from? David Duke, or Joseph Goebbels?

monster10 wrote:can people tell me the percentage of times if the canidate is from there if the state usally votes for him





If so isn't that like 98% or 96% of black people voting for obama

And seeing as black people make up 75% of the nation's population, it makes sense.

Oh, no wait. They make up 11% - 12%.

You're an idiot.