Conquer Club

charm wrote:I say we have Streaker PM Colton and DD. IF they do not show up in the next 24 hours, then we vote to fire one of them. An employee or manager not showing up would naturally be fired in real life, unless they are on a leave of absence.

Anyways, by killing one of them off early on, we may be able to learn more about the game roles. Day 1 always seems like a crap shoot.

Also, has anyone decided on the statics of employees vs management?

Finally, I expect Storr and MTam to be fighting by now or would consider them as brothers somehow. Just a thought.

When has day 1 been a crap shoot? Weve played a lot of games together with a lot of players here, why do you think this game or other games were crap shoots?

StorrZerg wrote:so caught i was lynched

wait.....

Do I really need to make the same comment I did to you on skype when the game ended nerd?

mtamburini wrote:

charm wrote:I say we have Streaker PM Colton and DD. IF they do not show up in the next 24 hours, then we vote to fire one of them. An employee or manager not showing up would naturally be fired in real life, unless they are on a leave of absence.

Anyways, by killing one of them off early on, we may be able to learn more about the game roles. Day 1 always seems like a crap shoot.

Also, has anyone decided on the statics of employees vs management?

Finally, I expect Storr and MTam to be fighting by now or would consider them as brothers somehow. Just a thought.

When has day 1 been a crap shoot? Weve played a lot of games together with a lot of players here, why do you think this game or other games were crap shoots?

Day 1 is always a crap shoot, we just pretend like it isn't to justify actual playing. Which is fine, it's more interesting than just rolling the dice.

The way to think about it is that psychologically we like to build patterns. We all remember that time that we successfully found scum on D1, so we convince ourselves that we are good at seeing the right patterns, even though most of the time we lynch a townie on D1 and we unintentionally ignore that, chalking it up to bad luck.

I suspect that if you did the statistics on games, you would find that mafia is not lynched more often than you would expect based on random chance. This is because there's so little information available on D1, and the information that you do have can easily be misinterpreted without corroborating evidence, so that you are about as likely to lynch mafia as if you had turned on a RNG.

Metsfanmax wrote:The way to think about it is that psychologically we like to build patterns. We all remember that time that we successfully found scum on D1, so we convince ourselves that we are good at seeing the right patterns, even though most of the time we lynch a townie on D1 and we unintentionally ignore that, chalking it up to bad luck.

I suspect that if you did the statistics on games, you would find that mafia is not lynched more often than you would expect based on random chance. This is because there's so little information available on D1, and the information that you do have can easily be misinterpreted without corroborating evidence, so that you are about as likely to lynch mafia as if you had turned on a RNG.

What I have decoded this is that you call it a crapshoot because your are not confident enough in your skills to scumhunt.

Metsfanmax wrote:The way to think about it is that psychologically we like to build patterns. We all remember that time that we successfully found scum on D1, so we convince ourselves that we are good at seeing the right patterns, even though most of the time we lynch a townie on D1 and we unintentionally ignore that, chalking it up to bad luck.

I suspect that if you did the statistics on games, you would find that mafia is not lynched more often than you would expect based on random chance. This is because there's so little information available on D1, and the information that you do have can easily be misinterpreted without corroborating evidence, so that you are about as likely to lynch mafia as if you had turned on a RNG.

That would actually be a pretty interesting research case, going back and looking at all the game histories and see what % of the time scum are lynched day 1. My guess is it's actually worse than random, because scum won't lynch their own, and are more likely to gang up on a town, so my guess is it's more likely for town to get lynched than averages would suggest. However, the information gained from the voting patterns, even if it's a town lynched day 1, help make for better lynches day 2 etc... without a day 1 lynch, a day 2 lynch probably won't have any better odds than a normal day 1 lynch, unless a cop or something got pretty lucky.

With all that said... because this is a majority lynch only rather than a plurality lynch, it's unfortunately unlikely for anyone other than an absent person to get lynched today, unless someone seriously messes up. I recall very very few day 1 majority lynches here, probably one reason why a lot of mods use plurality for lynching here.

Mod note: both DD and colton have been prodded yesterday, though colton has not even opened his Role PM yet.
I will look for willing replacements.

If no replacements are found, all players who have not confirmed in the thread will be modkilled by start of first night.

Confirming. Totally forgot I had got the Role PM, my bad

Serious talk about a mass claim this early? That's crazy IMO, mafia would know exactly who to target.

dd515087 wrote:Serious talk about a mass claim this early? That's crazy IMO, mafia would know exactly who to target.

Welcome DD, glad you could make it. I agree about massclaim, never seen the point early in the game when we have no info to fact check claims. Late game it can come in handy once some information is out in the open or held by one or two trusted townies but this early in the game it merely provides ammo for the mafia if players tell the truth or ammo to make accusations of lying if players hide powerful roles.

UNVOTE

I'm off to the Magic Kingdom today! Call it a vacation day for this employee.

down to kill dd5

On a serious note, one person will not make it past day 1.

I disagree with HotShot53 idea that only an inactive will be lynched.

With that my first town read is on iron butterfly

Big FOS on you storr for that call for a mass claim. i can see your point in a non vanilla game but on day one. Anybody else pulle that would have landed at least one vote.
why is IB town?

crasp wrote:Big FOS on you storr for that call for a mass claim. i can see your point in a non vanilla game but on day one. Anybody else pulle that would have landed at least one vote.
why is IB town?

I haven't given my opinion on mass claim or not. I made a call to action, being we should discuss it.

As for ib, do you have an opinion on him?

Dont start spouting the urine Storr. You were the one advocating a mass claim. You were also the one spouting a crystal ball read on IB. Answer the question. Why do you think IB is town.

StorrZerg wrote:down to kill dd5

Are you thinking what I am thinking?

StorrZerg wrote:On a serious note, one person will not make it past day 1.

I disagree with HotShot53 idea that only an inactive will be lynched.

With that my first town read is on iron butterfly

Is that your only town read? I think you should have 2 outside of me by now.

StorrZerg wrote:down to kill dd5

Why?

StorrZerg wrote:On a serious note, one person will not make it past day 1.

I disagree with HotShot53 idea that only an inactive will be lynched.

With that my first town read is on iron butterfly

Do you have any examples where there was a lynch on day 1 with majority vote needed? I don't recall any that I've played in over the last year or so, day 1 seems to always be a no-lynch if a majority is needed. I'm not saying we shouldn't still scum hunt today, and get a claim or two, it's just unlikely that someone will actually be lynched.

Why a town read on IB, other than he started off defending you?

I currently have no strong reads on anyone... I don't like the talk of a mass claim on day 1, just seems weird, but then again storr is known for throwing out weird ideas, so I wouldn't say it's alignment indicative.

Oh, unvote my joke vote

HotShot53 wrote:

StorrZerg wrote:down to kill dd5

Why?

StorrZerg wrote:On a serious note, one person will not make it past day 1.

I disagree with HotShot53 idea that only an inactive will be lynched.

With that my first town read is on iron butterfly

Do you have any examples where there was a lynch on day 1 with majority vote needed? I don't recall any that I've played in over the last year or so, day 1 seems to always be a no-lynch if a majority is needed. I'm not saying we shouldn't still scum hunt today, and get a claim or two, it's just unlikely that someone will actually be lynched.

Why a town read on IB, other than he started off defending you?

I currently have no strong reads on anyone... I don't like the talk of a mass claim on day 1, just seems weird, but then again storr is known for throwing out weird ideas, so I wouldn't say it's alignment indicative.

Oh, unvote my joke vote

strike wolf mafia game

virus lynched day 1

mtamburini wrote:

StorrZerg wrote:On a serious note, one person will not make it past day 1.

I disagree with HotShot53 idea that only an inactive will be lynched.

With that my first town read is on iron butterfly

Is that your only town read? I think you should have 2 outside of me by now.

what have you done that is worth town reading?

mtamburini wrote:

Metsfanmax wrote:The way to think about it is that psychologically we like to build patterns. We all remember that time that we successfully found scum on D1, so we convince ourselves that we are good at seeing the right patterns, even though most of the time we lynch a townie on D1 and we unintentionally ignore that, chalking it up to bad luck.

I suspect that if you did the statistics on games, you would find that mafia is not lynched more often than you would expect based on random chance. This is because there's so little information available on D1, and the information that you do have can easily be misinterpreted without corroborating evidence, so that you are about as likely to lynch mafia as if you had turned on a RNG.

What I have decoded this is that you call it a crapshoot because your are not confident enough in your skills to scumhunt.

Go back through the games you have played. Count the number of times you thought someone was scum on D1, then count the number of times they actually flipped scum. Is it higher than 50%? If not, we don't need you, we can just flip a coin and do better on average.

Metsfanmax wrote:

mtamburini wrote:

Metsfanmax wrote:The way to think about it is that psychologically we like to build patterns. We all remember that time that we successfully found scum on D1, so we convince ourselves that we are good at seeing the right patterns, even though most of the time we lynch a townie on D1 and we unintentionally ignore that, chalking it up to bad luck.

I suspect that if you did the statistics on games, you would find that mafia is not lynched more often than you would expect based on random chance. This is because there's so little information available on D1, and the information that you do have can easily be misinterpreted without corroborating evidence, so that you are about as likely to lynch mafia as if you had turned on a RNG.

What I have decoded this is that you call it a crapshoot because your are not confident enough in your skills to scumhunt.

Go back through the games you have played. Count the number of times you thought someone was scum on D1, then count the number of times they actually flipped scum. Is it higher than 50%? If not, we don't need you, we can just flip a coin and do better on average.

if games have been 50% town and 50% mafia your analogy makes sense. other wise it doesn't and there is multitude of reasons why lynching is good vs "rng"

StorrZerg wrote:

mtamburini wrote:

StorrZerg wrote:On a serious note, one person will not make it past day 1.

I disagree with HotShot53 idea that only an inactive will be lynched.

With that my first town read is on iron butterfly

Is that your only town read? I think you should have 2 outside of me by now.

what have you done that is worth town reading?

Re read what I said NERD, I was already stating the fact besides me, meaning not including me, you should have at least another town read by now.

The only discussion thus far that I think was worthy talking about was whether or not the people who have not confirmed in the thread or not should be lynched into.

I would want to look into the people who wish to lynch the inactives as this is always a bad play, I don't know how many more times I have to explain myself in every fucking game I play. Let the inactives get replaced or modkilled. They should never be lynched ever as we can make the assumption that the modkill would give us an extra "lynch"

If an inactive is mafia and modkilled then awesome we get a shot at a 2 for 1 mafia lynch day 1. If the inactive player is town we lose a town which is bad but we still have a good chance of lynching mafia outside them.

mtamburini wrote:

StorrZerg wrote:

mtamburini wrote:

StorrZerg wrote:On a serious note, one person will not make it past day 1.

I disagree with HotShot53 idea that only an inactive will be lynched.

With that my first town read is on iron butterfly

Is that your only town read? I think you should have 2 outside of me by now.

what have you done that is worth town reading?

Re read what I said NERD, I was already stating the fact besides me, meaning not including me, you should have at least another town read by now.

The only discussion thus far that I think was worthy talking about was whether or not the people who have not confirmed in the thread or not should be lynched into.

I would want to look into the people who wish to lynch the inactives as this is always a bad play, I don't know how many more times I have to explain myself in every fucking game I play. Let the inactives get replaced or modkilled. They should never be lynched ever as we can make the assumption that the modkill would give us an extra "lynch"

If an inactive is mafia and modkilled then awesome we get a shot at a 2 for 1 mafia lynch day 1. If the inactive player is town we lose a town which is bad but we still have a good chance of lynching mafia outside them.

what you said, i took the meanign to be i should all ready have a town read on you.

great rambling though!