Conquer Club

People always complain when something doesn't go to plan

As i've said on numerous times - Lack doesn't hide where he gets the data, its available for all to breakdown and determine if there is an issue. I'd be surprised if it was a problem.

Personally if an attack isn't going to plan I back off - the problem comes when people get stubborn and totally use their attack force up.

Tals

I have a very american idea for dealing with the randomness of the dice...

I think Lack should sell good rolls...maybe auction them off in a game...man in a 45 day game you could get me for a good chunk of change if i could just buy some sixes...

what do you think

let me think about it..................................










no!!!

Its been mentioned a number of times about the dice. We know they take from randon.org and overall the effect is random. But it does appear that randon.org like most random generators still creates very strong trends. So it is possible to have 20v1 and loose evert time 3 dice against 1 dice - what are the odds on that! I don't do auto attack anymore as this seems to bring the trend right out to the front.

So how about adding another randon element, rather than picking sequentially which could draw trends choose the row to take randonly - maybe have a second table alongside the first that chooses the sequence of the rows to be taken. That should kill any trend and actually make the dice much closer to random.

Tals

The dice are random. Your friend was playing 100 and something games, the chances are much higher in that instance.

gavin_sidhu wrote:The dice are random. Your friend was playing 100 and something games, the chances are much higher in that instance.

It's not the only instance of strange trends occuring. What would be useful is a trend analyser on that random.org but it would have to be pretty clever. My own play tends to find there are trends.

Tals

yeah if you attack with 3 armies and the other have also 3 you lose 90%

You also have to remember it is random.

That means I could have 100 armies vs 1 and I could lose ALL of them - it's random.

Random doesn't mean it has to be fair, it's highly improbable that 100 would lose to 1, but it's possible.

gulio wrote:You also have to remember it is random.

That means I could have 100 armies vs 1 and I could lose ALL of them - it's random.

Random doesn't mean it has to be fair, it's highly improbable that 100 would lose to 1, but it's possible.

Understood - but you have to weigh up the odds . At this point we need a statistician. 20 v 1 so 3 dice against 1 17 times, 2 dice against 1 1 time and then 1 dice has to be astronomical odds. So yes its random but you wouldn't expect to see those appearing that often. Likewise 100 v 1 i'd expect never to see that pattern.

Anyone able to work the stats on it?

I'm not arguing that overall its random - i'm arguing on any group of rows its not

It's about:

(1/3)^17 x 2/5 x 3/5

=

(1/3)^16 x 2/5

=

?

I dunno, something very small anyway. I'm not the calculator. And if you want to be exact, it's:

(441/1296)^17 x 91/216 x 21/36

2.7019383156573236576445220168289e-9

Is that the 20v1 or the 100v1

Either way I work that out as 1 in 370104674 chance.

Tals

gavin_sidhu wrote:The dice are random. Your friend was playing 100 and something games, the chances are much higher in that instance.

The numbers are random, but there are serious trends. I have seen many times 10 v 1 being beaten down to 1 v1 and even so much as 32 v 3 to be beaten down to 5 v 1. I can assure you, as someone that is very good at detecting patterns, these dice have serious trending.

gulio wrote:You also have to remember it is random.

That means I could have 100 armies vs 1 and I could lose ALL of them - it's random.

Random doesn't mean it has to be fair, it's highly improbable that 100 would lose to 1, but it's possible.

But not probable, the odds of it happen are near winning the lottery. If I was as lucky with the lottery as I am unlucky with the dice here, I would have won the megabucks a couple times this week alone.

Saxi wrote:

gulio wrote:You also have to remember it is random.

That means I could have 100 armies vs 1 and I could lose ALL of them - it's random.

Random doesn't mean it has to be fair, it's highly improbable that 100 would lose to 1, but it's possible.

But not probable, the odds of it happen are near winning the lottery. If I was as lucky with the lottery as I am unlucky with the dice here, I would have won the megabucks a couple times this week alone.

Do you buy a lottery ticket as often as your throw dice? Do you have any idea, how often you throw dice here? Just install dice analyzer and you will see.

Common guys, we've been over that a million times already. The dice is RANDOM, with RANDOM trends. If your will randomize the rows (which are random already), then it would not get any more random.

I know, the dice sometimes sucks, and sucks big way. But that what makes Risk special. If you don't want any randomness, then play chess.

wikipedia wrote: Dice probabilities
probabilities of winning a dice roll in Risk
(various dice combinations) Attacker
one die two dice three dice
Defender one
die Attacker wins 15/36 = 41.67% 125/216 = 57.87% 855/1296 = 65.97%
Defender wins 21/36 = 58.33% 91/216 = 42.13% 441/1296 = 34.03%
two
dice Attacker wins 55/216 = 25.46% 295/1296 = 22.76% 2890/7776 = 37.17%
Defender wins 161/216 = 74.54% 581/1296 = 44.83% 2275/7776 = 29.26%
Both win one 420/1296 = 32.41% 2611/7776 = 33.58%

these are the statistical probabilities for the dice throws. if you look at the dice analyzer thread, you will find that the most recent alalyzations of the dice come out very similar to this.

With every dice topic, I think I'm going to start to pitch my old suggestion...


Lets have everyone roll their own dice! How about everyone rolls their own in the physical world, and then reports back to the game what they rolled...and then the game could calculate who wins and who loses! This system would surely ensure that the dice are random, as you would physically be in the act of throwing them each time! I think it's a great idea!


--Andy

wcaclimbing wrote:

wikipedia wrote: Dice probabilities
probabilities of winning a dice roll in Risk
(various dice combinations) Attacker
one die two dice three dice
Defender one
die Attacker wins 15/36 = 41.67% 125/216 = 57.87% 855/1296 = 65.97%
Defender wins 21/36 = 58.33% 91/216 = 42.13% 441/1296 = 34.03%
two
dice Attacker wins 55/216 = 25.46% 295/1296 = 22.76% 2890/7776 = 37.17%
Defender wins 161/216 = 74.54% 581/1296 = 44.83% 2275/7776 = 29.26%
Both win one 420/1296 = 32.41% 2611/7776 = 33.58%

these are the statistical probabilities for the dice throws. if you look at the dice analyzer thread, you will find that the most recent alalyzations of the dice come out very similar to this.

The dice analyzer has effectively proven that the long run trends reflect the statistical probabilities you would expect to see after taking very large numbers of samples.

All that means is, the defender and attacker roll every die a roughly equal amount of times in the long run, which should be expected.

That doesn't have anything to do with the topic at hand, which is the streakiness (if there is any) of the dice. Yes, random occurrences mean that very good and bad streaks will occur. But they will be outside of the norm and the total trend of streaks should follow a very even distribution. The dice analyzer does nothing to look at this type of data and therefore has done nothing to quantify the apparent problem that most people complain about.

Once again, I am not saying there IS something wrong with the dice. I'm just saying there COULD be and the dice analyzer wouldn't be able to catch it at all (at least under the current programming). If someone would make a program that looks at how many times in a row you win each of the battles and then creates a distribution based on those streaks- THEN we could see how random the dice are in the short term, and everyone who is unsatisfied would be able to see the truth.

Once again, I am not saying there IS something wrong with the dice. I'm just saying there COULD be and the dice analyzer wouldn't be able to catch it at all (at least under the current programming). If someone would make a program that looks at how many times in a row you win each of the battles and then creates a distribution based on those streaks- THEN we could see how random the dice are in the short term, and everyone who is unsatisfied would be able to see the truth.

Absolutely - nail totally on the head!

How many people don't use auto attack because of the fear of hitting a bad trend - I know I no longer do it.

Tals

So... **Rubs his hands together** who wants to make a script that reads such things?


--Andy

I play alot of games. there are times everything goes my way and times they do not. a month or so ago I lost a bunch of games in a row. it seemed like i was attacking armies with toothpicks.
this last week has been the same. I have noticed over the last three days in 21 of my games that when i attack 3 out of 5 times the opponent is rolling sixes. I just started keeping up with it last night so it is not a three day total. single six or double six. there has got to be a better system

So, Is it possible to take a look at the Dice Rolling? I've been loosing 9 to 1. Is there anyone else who has this problem?

FAQ wrote:The dice are based on high quality random numbers from Random.org. The numbers are read from a large file containing columns of numbers from 1 to 6, in the format A1 A2 A3 D1 D2. When the dice are rolled, the game engine reads a line from the file and discards it. The appropriate numbers are used and the others are ignored. The file contains 500,000 lines of dice rolls and is re-loaded when all the lines are used up. As of November 2006 we consume 125,000 lines of dice rolls per day.

Sounds pretty random to me.

AK_iceman wrote:

FAQ wrote:The dice are based on high quality random numbers from Random.org. The numbers are read from a large file containing columns of numbers from 1 to 6, in the format A1 A2 A3 D1 D2. When the dice are rolled, the game engine reads a line from the file and discards it. The appropriate numbers are used and the others are ignored. The file contains 500,000 lines of dice rolls and is re-loaded when all the lines are used up. As of November 2006 we consume 125,000 lines of dice rolls per day.

Sounds pretty random to me.

Not if you log everyone's dice rolls and memorize the list

trust me man, everyone gets messed around by them and it can seem harsh on you, but u will win some really good rolls and wont think about it.

if u get the Dice Analyzer addon, it does clearly show that the attacker has the advantage most of the time.



Dice Analyzer
Clicky

See, that's the problem. is that the Dice Analyzer is showing that the Rolls are at an advantage to the defender.

I also do have experience with computer programing, and have experience with Random# Generators. There can be errors in code that will effect outcome of the Random# Function.