Conquer Club

It will be interesting to see what the actual survival curve looks like.

What happens when its down to four players? Everyone plays everyone till someone loses?

Where is the PM???

map 1 for R8: San Marino: auto seq no spoils chained no fog

SirSebstar wrote:

Dukasaur wrote:

HighlanderAttack wrote: EDIT IT HAS BEEN TWO WEEKS AND THE GAMES HAVE DELETED AUTOMATICALLY--ROUND SEVEN IS OFFICIALLY OVER

You could just turn this into a policy. Just let every round end when the games auto-delete... that will create a natural time limit that you don't have to artificially enforce.

he is doing this as a courtesy to the freemiums, so they can play a game and see how it goes. Due to limited slots they often have 1 slot free, not 3...
And to those players who play only 1 game a round but want to get to the next round too...

The only reason I have left games up so long is my real life is really kicking my ass right now. Besides a crashed pc and a broken down vehicle in the shop for 10+ days, I am working many hours. I would say things will calm down soon and I will be on track with my tourneys, but that is probably just wishful thinking. No excuses though--If I played less games and joined less tourneys I would have the time to keep all my tourneys updated on a timely manner so ultimately the extra time added to each round comes down to me. I still think it is moving along ok, but I have no plan on continuing to leave games up for so long. One week will be the max in the upcoming rounds and it will be a few days less than that in later rounds. I have a new pc now, I just need a little time to get it set up.

Treasures of Galapagos Automatic, sequential, NO SPOILS, ADJACENT, YES to FOG OF WAR please.
Thanks!

Thanks for running the tournament. No complaints here. I like 1 week for the games.

Waterloo, automatic, sequential, no spoils, chained, fog or war YES.

Take care of yourself!

Age of merchants, sunny, no cards, chained

Random Nukes Sunny Chained.

Poison Rome, automatic, sequential, no spoils, chained, fog or war YES.

has the pass code been sent out yet i have not received it?

Canada, unlimited, no fog, escalating. Thanks

AoR 2, manual, fog, spoils esc,

Monsters, foggy, unlimited, no spoils

I am not taking any more map requests

I will have instructions out very soon

Games have all been made

You probably don't want to hear this, but all the open games are labeled "RD 7".

We have a GA Medal Winner for Leader of the Pack--TheFlashPoint(aka The Flash Light) has jumped into the lead with a 19-2 record. Everyone can congratulate him.

TheFlashPoint 21 19 2
Benga 21 18 3
Genoke 21 18 3
Seekmeup41 21 18 3
Wolfmaster 21 18 3
Briggs1209 21 17 4
Copernicus 21 17 4
Greeley Crow 21 17 4
Italianipastido 21 17 4
Josko.ri 21 17 4
Koul 21 17 4
MudPuppy 21 17 4
Nesterdude 21 17 4
Nikola_milicki 21 17 4
PANTS 21 17 4


Winning one game per round while only playing one game per round now comes down to these two players:

Safariguy5 7 7 0
Saywhat 7 7 0

rom_tobins wrote:Well i think things shall end slightly faster then that. It's not hard to win a game when you have 3 tries, but as things go on the less skilled players tend to disappear. Some players will be finding it harder and harder to get by. i say another 15 or so rounds

I don't think so. Some more math to prove it?

scenario1:
Assumption: All players in the tourney are very skilled.
Conclusion1: The games will be mostly decided by luck.
Conclusion2: Chances to advance are 1-0,5^3= 87,5 %

scenario2:
assumption1: We have 300 players of three categories: 100 are highly skilled, 100 are average skilled and 100 are less skilled.

assumtion 2: Every player plays one game against one player of each categorie.

assumption 3: Lets assume the following win chances for the differnt types of games:
high vs high = 50:50
high vs average = 60:40
high vs low = 70:30
average vs average = 50:50
average vs low = 60:40
low vs low = 50:50

So chances for the highly skilled player to advance are: 1-0,5*0,4*0,3=94%
Chances for the average skilled player: 1- 0,6*0,5*0,4=88%
Chances for the low skilled player: 1- 0,5*0,4*0,3= 79 %

Chances on average: (79+88+94)/3 = 87%

If the skill of the players differs the average to advance are slightly lower than in scenario 1.
You can also try it with different numbers like 90:10 for the high skilled player against the low skilled player but you will always get a lower chance on average. (I did not do a proove for this but I'm quite sure that it is like that).


At the moment we are at 82 %. This might be because:
1. Player are skilled differently
2. Some people do not even join games
3. Some people go to holidays and deadbeat all there games
4. Some people do not play all three games although they lost.

So this is enough being geek for today... We will see if I'm right as the tourney continues.

knubbel

HA if ur not to busy can u post the players that r still alive and the number to go with it
thanks

knubbel wrote:Some stats:
Players
round1: 2507
round2: 2057 -> 82% of round1
round3: 1687 -> 82% of round2
round4: 1398 -> 83% of round3
round5: 1147 -> 82% of round4
round6: 932 -> 81% of round5
round7: 776 -> 83% of round6

so about 82% advancing each round.
if we continue like that the winner will be found in round x:
2507*0,82^(x-1)=1
x=ln(1/2507)/ln(0,82)+1= 40,43

We already played 7 rounds, so we just have to play more or less 33 rounds to find the winner

Good work!

I think the survival rate will increase slightly as time goes on. A lot of the less serious players will have been shaken out now, so you will gradually see fewer losses to deadbeating, etc. So gradually the survival percentage will move closer to the 87% that you mentioned later.

Africa, Sunny, Chained, Escalating.

HighlanderAttack wrote:We have a GA Medal Winner for Leader of the Pack--TheFlashPoint(aka The Flash Light) has jumped into the lead with a 19-2 record. Everyone can congratulate him.

TheFlashPoint 21 19 2
Benga 21 18 3
Genoke 21 18 3
Seekmeup41 21 18 3
Wolfmaster 21 18 3
Briggs1209 21 17 4
Copernicus 21 17 4
Greeley Crow 21 17 4
Italianipastido 21 17 4
Josko.ri 21 17 4
Koul 21 17 4
MudPuppy 21 17 4
Nesterdude 21 17 4
Nikola_milicki 21 17 4
PANTS 21 17 4


Winning one game per round while only playing one game per round now comes down to these two players:

Safariguy5 7 7 0
Saywhat 7 7 0

Thanks HA, aka.... cant really think of a good one there. Half-bred Hill Apache?

Also, special thanks to 19 of you, but not to Briggs1209. Briggs, if you'd like an in-tournament rematch, Im game.

Ha ... I see there are games up ... but I have not received a PM with the Round 8 pswd ... also the games up are all labeled Rnd 7 ???