Conquer Club

The dice are random to some extent. I have lost 102 to 20 with my opponent being left 15 but I have also won 9 to 29. I have though seemed to feel that if my dice are good the first three rolls they will be bad the next three and the same goes for my opponent in the same pattern. Maybe I am just crazy. I have learned to work my strategy around that and honestly I do not mind this but I would like to hear what other people think...

sailorseal wrote:Maybe I am just crazy

Humans are very good at recognizing patterns. Sometimes when there aren't even any to recognize.

sailorseal wrote: but I would like to hear what other people think...

This is what I think...you take 2 dies right now and roll them say 20 times ...see how many times 2 6's comes up?....probably once maybe twice, do the bullcrap random.org way you'll get them coming up 10 times...Thats what I think

Timminz wrote:

sailorseal wrote:Maybe I am just crazy

Humans are very good at recognizing patterns. Sometimes when there aren't even any to recognize.

Just wondering do you have any data to back that up or did you make that up?

sailorseal wrote:

Timminz wrote:

sailorseal wrote:Maybe I am just crazy

Humans are very good at recognizing patterns. Sometimes when there aren't even any to recognize.

Just wondering do you have any data to back that up or did you make that up?

I made it up. Learn how to do a bit of research please.

I dont care what anyone says, the rolls are not right. Invest in a real randomizer. Attacker is supposed to win 6 to 5, not lose 3 to 1.

I know there must have been a thousand complaints about this. Maybe Im just whining because I lost 17 men to 2.

Try losing 23 to 1, yes a 1. But I still love the dice

anomalystream wrote:I dont care what anyone says...

That's fine. Most of us don't care that you can't grasp the concept of random.

The intensity cubes operate perfectly normal. Read up on the concept of "random" and you'll understand.

Sucks more when you're opponent successfully kills 22 of your armies without losing a single man. Just remember the good rolls you have had, and they will push the crap rolls out of your head.

Think about this for a while...

Would the dice be random if you couldn't get bad dice?

Simple answer.

anomalystream wrote:I dont care what anyone says, the rolls are not right. Invest in a real randomizer. Attacker is supposed to win 6 to 5, not lose 3 to 1.

I know there must have been a thousand complaints about this. Maybe Im just whining because I lost 17 men to 2.

Well, your computations disregard that the defender wins ties. You have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 6, but so does the defender. While the attacker gets 3 dice vs. the defender's 2, that simply gives you a 3 in 18 (or 1 in 6) chance of rolling a 6, while the defender gets a 2 in 12 chance (or again, 1 in 6 chance) of rolling a 6. When attacker's 1 in 6 meets defender's 1 in 6, attacker loses, and then it doesn't matter that you got a third chance to roll a 6; 3 6's is still defeated by 2 6's. So, really, the winner only wins by a 3 in 18 (1:6) chance vs the defender's 2 in 12 (1:6) chance. When six's are considered, it's even odds of winning.

The defender's odds get better if we consider that the attacker could roll a 5. Then, the defender could roll a 5 OR a 6 and win (4 chances in 12 or 1:3) chance vs. the attacker's (3 in 18 or 1:6) chance.

Hope that helps.

stahrgazer wrote:

anomalystream wrote:I dont care what anyone says, the rolls are not right. Invest in a real randomizer. Attacker is supposed to win 6 to 5, not lose 3 to 1.

I know there must have been a thousand complaints about this. Maybe Im just whining because I lost 17 men to 2.

Well, your computations disregard that the defender wins ties. You have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 6, but so does the defender. While the attacker gets 3 dice vs. the defender's 2, that simply gives you a 3 in 18 (or 1 in 6) chance of rolling a 6, while the defender gets a 2 in 12 chance (or again, 1 in 6 chance) of rolling a 6. When attacker's 1 in 6 meets defender's 1 in 6, attacker loses, and then it doesn't matter that you got a third chance to roll a 6; 3 6's is still defeated by 2 6's. So, really, the winner only wins by a 3 in 18 (1:6) chance vs the defender's 2 in 12 (1:6) chance. When six's are considered, it's even odds of winning.

The defender's odds get better if we consider that the attacker could roll a 5. Then, the defender could roll a 5 OR a 6 and win (4 chances in 12 or 1:3) chance vs. the attacker's (3 in 18 or 1:6) chance.

Wrong. it is not 3 on 18 chances to roll a 6. it is 1/6, PLUS 1/6, PLUS 1/6 = 3 in 6, or 50% chance of rolling ones six in 3 dice.

defence would have 2 in six, or 33,3333%

Hope that helps.

RADAGA wrote:

stahrgazer wrote:

anomalystream wrote:I dont care what anyone says, the rolls are not right. Invest in a real randomizer. Attacker is supposed to win 6 to 5, not lose 3 to 1.

I know there must have been a thousand complaints about this. Maybe Im just whining because I lost 17 men to 2.

Well, your computations disregard that the defender wins ties. You have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 6, but so does the defender. While the attacker gets 3 dice vs. the defender's 2, that simply gives you a 3 in 18 (or 1 in 6) chance of rolling a 6, while the defender gets a 2 in 12 chance (or again, 1 in 6 chance) of rolling a 6. When attacker's 1 in 6 meets defender's 1 in 6, attacker loses, and then it doesn't matter that you got a third chance to roll a 6; 3 6's is still defeated by 2 6's. So, really, the winner only wins by a 3 in 18 (1:6) chance vs the defender's 2 in 12 (1:6) chance. When six's are considered, it's even odds of winning.

The defender's odds get better if we consider that the attacker could roll a 5. Then, the defender could roll a 5 OR a 6 and win (4 chances in 12 or 1:3) chance vs. the attacker's (3 in 18 or 1:6) chance.

Wrong. it is not 3 on 18 chances to roll a 6. it is 1/6, PLUS 1/6, PLUS 1/6 = 3 in 6, or 50% chance of rolling ones six in 3 dice.

defence would have 2 in six, or 33,3333%

Hope that helps.

What is this, the fucking idiot brigade? You're both goddam wrong...

Chance of rolling a 6 on any of 3 dice = 1 - (5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) = 42%
Chance of rolling a 6 on any of 2 dice = 1 - (5/6 * 5/6) = 31%

That bullshit logic above what I just wrote should be a bannable friggin offence

e_i_pi wrote:

RADAGA wrote:

stahrgazer wrote:

anomalystream wrote:I dont care what anyone says, the rolls are not right. Invest in a real randomizer. Attacker is supposed to win 6 to 5, not lose 3 to 1.

I know there must have been a thousand complaints about this. Maybe Im just whining because I lost 17 men to 2.

Well, your computations disregard that the defender wins ties. You have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 6, but so does the defender. While the attacker gets 3 dice vs. the defender's 2, that simply gives you a 3 in 18 (or 1 in 6) chance of rolling a 6, while the defender gets a 2 in 12 chance (or again, 1 in 6 chance) of rolling a 6. When attacker's 1 in 6 meets defender's 1 in 6, attacker loses, and then it doesn't matter that you got a third chance to roll a 6; 3 6's is still defeated by 2 6's. So, really, the winner only wins by a 3 in 18 (1:6) chance vs the defender's 2 in 12 (1:6) chance. When six's are considered, it's even odds of winning.

The defender's odds get better if we consider that the attacker could roll a 5. Then, the defender could roll a 5 OR a 6 and win (4 chances in 12 or 1:3) chance vs. the attacker's (3 in 18 or 1:6) chance.

Wrong. it is not 3 on 18 chances to roll a 6. it is 1/6, PLUS 1/6, PLUS 1/6 = 3 in 6, or 50% chance of rolling ones six in 3 dice.

defence would have 2 in six, or 33,3333%

Hope that helps.

What is this, the fucking idiot brigade? You're both goddam wrong...

Chance of rolling a 6 on any of 3 dice = 1 - (5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) = 42%
Chance of rolling a 6 on any of 2 dice = 1 - (5/6 * 5/6) = 31%

That bullshit logic above what I just wrote should be a bannable friggin offence

This should be bannable, right, not the FUCKING IDIOT that decides to use termis like FUCKING IDIOT upon others, not matter it they are indeed FUCKING IDIOTS or not, becuase the system is composed of FUCKING IDIOTS that dont give a FUCKING IDIOTIC SHIT about someone being a FUCKING ASSHOLE and start to make personal and direct attacks againt others he perceives as, as he himself says, FUCKING IDIOTS.

Am I FUCKING right, or not?

Oh, and the chances are 42.12% and 30.55%, actually. Get your fucking numbers right.

RADAGA wrote:Am I FUCKING right, or not?

Based on the only information I have (this thread), not.

Here is your Risk dice site

http://recreationalmath.com/Risk/index.htm

Megadeth666 wrote::o Here is your Risk dice site

http://recreationalmath.com/Risk/index.htm

Or, if you'd like a better one, you could use this.
http://www.gamesbyemail.com/Games/Gambit/BattleOdds

Hey guys. Tone it down.

lancehoch wrote:Hey guys. Tone it down.

Yeah RADAGA geeze, way to flame the fact that I rounded to the nearest integer. Totally uncalled for

I said guys, not guy. Females can still explode on people, for now.

The flame was because of your naming of the "brigade", specially after you say that lack of a masters in statistics should be punished by banning, while total lack of courtesy is perfectly normal, acceptable, funny and to be expected.

I know the average mental age here is probably half the average chronological age, but still, I can dream on a virtual place where people would only say things they would be bold enough to say face-to-face.

I know I am a F. I. for beliving in such, but, well, thats life.

The bickeing about rounding up or down was the gratuitous part.

peace out.

Oh, and expect more dice complains, seems the annual "you wont win anything else for months in a row" is comming early this year.

Okay, for everyone who is dragging out statistics to try and prove their side of the argument, when was the last time you rolled a die 5 times did it roll a '6' all 5 times? This happened at one point as I was winding up one of my games last night. (BTW, statisticly speaking, rolling those 5 6's is a 1-in-7,776 occurance.)

Now if this were the only time this happened I wouldn't worry too much about it, but when I've seen all too often occurances of 3 or 4 6's rolled one right after the other, I tend to believe that the dice are not random at all. I am starting to believe more and more that the matrix they are using for the dice rolls is nowhere near random, and this can only lead to frustration on the part of someplayers.

And just so you know, I have seen a Risk game where a player cashed in for a large number of troops, and ran the board only to be stymied at the last territory as he was able to wittle his opponant down to all but one lone troop. At which point the other player cashed in a set and ran about 2/3 of the board - if only because the routing he had to take wasn't as good.

As I recall, this happened not once, but twice in that game. I have never seen that occur since. Yet in just two short months I have seen occurances not even half as improbable happen too often.

Dave67 wrote:Okay, for everyone who is dragging out statistics to try and prove their side of the argument,....

For everyone who can't be bothered to understand statistics, yet still try to "prove" the dice are not random.....

They're random. 1 in 7776 is not as uncommon as you seem to think. Get used to it.

I'm not trying to waste your time but for the past 15 games the dice have "turned around" for me and a couple other guys i know. let me give you an example, i had a 9 attacking a 2, i attacked and i ended up losing 1to 2. i mean at first i thought it was just bad luck bet it kept on happening like at least 5 to 10 times per game, 15 games ago i was a privet now im a cook with less than 750 points. now not to bust your chops or anything but is there some possible way that you can make them better? i'd really apreciate.


thanks for your time,

Italianboy97