Conquer Club

RADAGA wrote:if it is 1 chance in 50.000, then EACH PLAYER would experience this ONCE, every time HE (and NOT the whole CC) rolls 50.000 times, in the average.

Of course, this is BS. To roll 50.000 dice you need to play 10 games, making 2 rounds a day on each, , rolling 3 attcaks on each (10x2X3=60) for about 2,2 years, each and every day. So, once in ever 2 years you should lose a 20x2 .... not once every week (or even month), as it happens here.

True enouogh, except that all of the dice that everyone rolls come from the same source. Suppose I were to have a bag with 500,000 marbles in it and 10 were a different color, I take 60 marbles today, so do you, so does everyone else on CC, a few of us are going to get the funny marbles. Every day. Sorry, but since there are only 500,000 lines of dice on the randomly generated list and everyone takes their dice from this list then the rolls that everyone else makes do affect the likelihood of you getting funny rolls.

So the same bag is used over and over, never refilled with another load of "dice".

That explain a lot...perhaps then it wouldl be better to fish out 5 independent numbers from it, instead of lines that will repeat themselves ad nauseaum.

But it shouldn't matter how many people are rolling the dice, because what other people roll (unless I am grossly mistaken about your dice algorithm) will have no effect on you. I am assuming that when someone rolls a certain combination, that combination is not removed from the list of available dice throws.

But the numbers given to derive 1 crap 20v2 roll every 2 years seems a bit conservative. Lets say you play 10 games per day, at an average of 5 turns per game, with an average of 4 attacks per turn. In this case, we see 100 dice throws per day. This is 200 rolls per day, and closer to 1 crap 20v2 roll every 6 months. Of course, this is the average; you could roll the same bad 20v2 5 times in a row. Highly unlikely, but not impossible.

This also assumes when you say 20V2, you are actually attacking with 20 and not 19.

RADAGA wrote:Thats a stupid justification and you know it.

It is not the matter of how many dice CC rolls a day that dictates each sepparate player chances of getting something unusual to happen.

if it is 1 chance in 50.000, then EACH PLAYER would experience this ONCE, every time HE (and NOT the whole CC) rolls 50.000 times, in the average.

This, folks, is what we call The Gamblers Fallacy. In a nutshell it goes like this:

"Suppose that we have just tossed four heads in a row, so that if the next coin toss were also to come up heads, it would complete a run of five successive heads. Since the probability of a run of five successive heads is only 1 / 32 (one in thirty-two), a believer in the gambler's fallacy might believe that this next flip is less likely to be heads than to be tails. However, this is not correct, and is a manifestation of the gambler's fallacy. The probability that the next toss is a head is in fact 1 / 2"

Also, take into account Bayes' Theorem...

"If one flips a fair coin 21 times, then the probability of 21 heads is 1 in 2,097,152. However, the probability of flipping a head after having already flipped 20 heads in a row is simply 1 in 2. This is an example of Bayes' theorem.

The probability of getting 20 heads then 1 tail, and the probability of getting 20 heads then another head are both 1 in 2,097,152. Therefore, it is equally likely to flip 21 heads as it is to flip 20 heads and 1 tail when flipping a fair coin 21 times. Furthermore, these two probabilities are as equally likely as any other 21-flip combinations that can be obtained (there are 2,097,152 total)"

Some jokes relating to this:

"A joke told among mathematicians demonstrates the nature of the fallacy. When flying on an aircraft, a man decides always to bring a bomb with him. "The chances of an aircraft having a bomb on it are very small," he reasons, "and certainly the chances of having two are almost none!".

A similar example is in the book The World According to Garp when the hero Garp decides to buy a house a moment after a small plane crashes into it, reasoning that the chances of another plane hitting the house have just dropped to zero."

In relation to CC, if you roll 3v2 3 times and score 0-2 losses each time, do not think that the 4th time will yield better results. You are just as likely to lose 0-2 on the 4th roll as you are the 1st.

Further dice/intensity cube complaint merged with the existing "'all new' intensity cubes complaints (merged)" thread.

dice problems - posts from 6 January 2009 to 12 January 2009 - first post here

With apologies to wannaseemytreat, your original post was a legitimate question/bug report, but some of us can't help but take every opportunity to continue the dice fix conspiracy.

And thanks to e_i_pi for the light relief as ever

If this post raises any questions or comments please do send me a PM.

Cicero

Megadeth666 wrote:

Megadeth666 wrote:My next move in waterloo, I will just bombard (hopefully no one from that game reads this)...and see how accurate your odds are

Okay, I am ready to make my move but will wait till the morning , but I just did a turn....I had 16, against 2 I lost every roll...ofw, these are good dice, just freakin great dice machine CC chose , CC cubes are the best, they do not cheat, just fixed, ..but like lack and who the f*ck cares anymore, the dice machine, has to do...

Okay here my bombarding...started with 13 troops, and ended up killing 21....
2009-01-12 17:20:12 - Megadeth666: 13 vs 4
2009-01-12 17:20:41 - Megadeth666: Megadeth666 bombarded Ney 01 from Clinton 02 and annihilated heatz's troops
2009-01-12 17:21:01 - Megadeth666: 11 vs 4
2009-01-12 17:22:01 - Megadeth666: Megadeth666 bombarded Imperial Guard 07 from Clinton 02 and annihilated heatz's troops
2009-01-12 17:22:49 - Megadeth666: 10 vs 4
2009-01-12 17:23:03 - Megadeth666: Megadeth666 bombarded Ney 04 from Clinton 02 and annihilated harvmax's troops
2009-01-12 17:24:04 - Megadeth666: 10 vs 3
2009-01-12 17:24:25 - Megadeth666: Megadeth666 bombarded Imperial Guard 03 from Clinton 02 and annihilated seamusvibe's troops
2009-01-12 17:26:10 - Megadeth666: 9 vs 3Megadeth666 bombarded Imperial Guard 02 from Clinton 02 and annihilated DJ Teflon's troops
2009-01-12 17:27:01 - Megadeth666: 6 vs 3 Megadeth666 bombarded Ney 06 from Clinton 02 and annihilated harvmax's

Now that was bombarding...try 13 against 4 on a normal roll ? even 11 against 4 and only lose 1?...than, 10 against 4 and don't lose?...10 vs 3, don't lose again?...I Think bombarding is a good bet...and now realizing why a lot of people like farming on this map

No, it is not.

I know the gamblers fallacy, and I have not meant to inccour in that.

What I meant is simple: the chance YOU have to witness an event equals the number of times YOU meet the circunstances that CAN cause such event versus its chance of happening.

and NOT

The chance YOU have to witness an event equals the number of times ANY person on earth meet the circunstances that can cause such event versus its chance of happening.

Simple as that.

e_i_pi wrote:

RADAGA wrote:Thats a stupid justification and you know it.

It is not the matter of how many dice CC rolls a day that dictates each sepparate player chances of getting something unusual to happen.

if it is 1 chance in 50.000, then EACH PLAYER would experience this ONCE, every time HE (and NOT the whole CC) rolls 50.000 times, in the average.

This, folks, is what we call The Gamblers Fallacy. In a nutshell it goes like this:

"Suppose that we have just tossed four heads in a row, so that if the next coin toss were also to come up heads, it would complete a run of five successive heads. Since the probability of a run of five successive heads is only 1 / 32 (one in thirty-two), a believer in the gambler's fallacy might believe that this next flip is less likely to be heads than to be tails. However, this is not correct, and is a manifestation of the gambler's fallacy. The probability that the next toss is a head is in fact 1 / 2"

Also, take into account Bayes' Theorem...

"If one flips a fair coin 21 times, then the probability of 21 heads is 1 in 2,097,152. However, the probability of flipping a head after having already flipped 20 heads in a row is simply 1 in 2. This is an example of Bayes' theorem.

The probability of getting 20 heads then 1 tail, and the probability of getting 20 heads then another head are both 1 in 2,097,152. Therefore, it is equally likely to flip 21 heads as it is to flip 20 heads and 1 tail when flipping a fair coin 21 times. Furthermore, these two probabilities are as equally likely as any other 21-flip combinations that can be obtained (there are 2,097,152 total)"

Some jokes relating to this:

"A joke told among mathematicians demonstrates the nature of the fallacy. When flying on an aircraft, a man decides always to bring a bomb with him. "The chances of an aircraft having a bomb on it are very small," he reasons, "and certainly the chances of having two are almost none!".

A similar example is in the book The World According to Garp when the hero Garp decides to buy a house a moment after a small plane crashes into it, reasoning that the chances of another plane hitting the house have just dropped to zero."

In relation to CC, if you roll 3v2 3 times and score 0-2 losses each time, do not think that the 4th time will yield better results. You are just as likely to lose 0-2 on the 4th roll as you are the 1st.

Game name: 'conquerclub'

Attacker dice distribution Defender dice distribution
1s █████████████████████████ 817 / 4886 (16.72%) █████████████████████████ 443 / 2663 (16.64%)
2s █████████████████████████ 819 / 4886 (16.76%) █████████████████████████ 434 / 2663 (16.3%)
3s █████████████████████████ 853 / 4886 (17.46%) █████████████████████████ 447 / 2663 (16.79%)
4s █████████████████████████ 769 / 4886 (15.74%) █████████████████████████ 430 / 2663 (16.15%)
5s █████████████████████████ 838 / 4886 (17.15%) █████████████████████████ 449 / 2663 (16.86%)
6s █████████████████████████ 790 / 4886 (16.17%) █████████████████████████ 460 / 2663 (17.27%)

Pretty bump.. mere coincidence it is on the unbeatable defence dice.... perhaps over 2.500 samples are not enough for something that can have 6 possile results.

consistent data can be achieved when I have 1 trillion rolls...

wonder how statistical is done on other fields, like life expectancy, where one can have a hundred possible results for lifespan.

1 million results for consistent data on 6 results. How many hundred billions for life expectancy? Does that mean every statistic involving mankind is flawed? Asimov was right, psicho-history can be developed when we have a thousand trillion people living in the galaxy? Which came first, the egg or the hen? Is there intelligent life on the internet? Sooo many questions....

lackattack wrote:Yeah it's really hard to know if you were unlucky or the dice are not random enough.

Just to be safe, I replaced the default random number generator with a better one.

Maybe some day I would add a no-luck option, but it's not something I want to build right now.

A while ago I lost 21 to 1 and recently I lost i think it was 64 to 20, that is more than three times the amount of troops, that just doesn't seem fair

Game name: 'conquerclub'

Attacker dice distribution Defender dice distribution

last week:

6s█████████████████████████ 460 / 2663 (17.27%)

This week:

6s█████████████████████████ 479 / 2860 (16.75%)

lets see.. in two hundred rolls. We got a mere 19 sixes... less than 10%

Previsously to that, I have seen a bump in the sixes, they got 20 more rolls than any other number.

Of course thats nothing to do with streakyness, the fact the "dice" spend a week rolling almost no sixes, after two weeks rolling 50% extra sixes is ABSOLUTELLY normal.

As I say: you get 100 ones, then 100 twos, then (...) and 100 sixes, in sequence, makes a perfect statistical analisys, you will have got 1/6th of every number. nevermind they came in bundles, it is random!

RADAGA wrote:Game name: 'conquerclub'

Attacker dice distribution Defender dice distribution

last week:

6s█████████████████████████ 460 / 2663 (17.27%)

This week:

6s█████████████████████████ 479 / 2860 (16.75%)

lets see.. in two hundred rolls. We got a mere 19 sixes... less than 10%

Previsously to that, I have seen a bump in the sixes, they got 20 more rolls than any other number.

Of course thats nothing to do with streakyness, the fact the "dice" spend a week rolling almost no sixes, after two weeks rolling 50% extra sixes is ABSOLUTELLY normal.

As I say: you get 100 ones, then 100 twos, then (...) and 100 sixes, in sequence, makes a perfect statistical analisys, you will have got 1/6th of every number. nevermind they came in bundles, it is random!

First you complain that the dice are not average, then when they start to average out you complain about that. The dice are random and this is proving it.

Sure. It is random, in a strange fixed streaky way....

1v1 █████████████████████████ 9 / 21 (30% / 70%) (41.67% / 58.33%) and as I always say: 1x1 true chances are 30%-70% ....

RADAGA wrote:Sure. It is random, in a strange fixed streaky way....

1v1 █████████████████████████ 9 / 21 (30% / 70%) (41.67% / 58.33%) and as I always say: 1x1 true chances are 30%-70% ....

ooh! 30 rolls! Such big numbers. Now try to recreate that with more dice: not going to happen.

when will people start believing that the dice is random? you get crap dice and you get excellent dice at various times, eventually the number of bad rolls will even up with the number of good rolls and this has been proven many times before (I think)...

GOD, will those ppl will ever stop crying...

Once I was online when one of the players took his turn he attacked 20 on 13, LOST ONLY ONE MAN ON THAT, when he continued he got stopped at 7 on 1... an guess what he wrote in the log!!!
When all you do is remembering the bad dice, never the good one of course something is wrong, but it ain't the dice

I would say there are more then million dice rolls a day in CC... how many of you even roll the dice 10 times a day

Ohhh, and one last thing,if you understand strategy, just a little bit, you know that attacking is not always the best option (what you all want is for the attacking dices to be good, I didn't even saw some one who said that his passive rolls were bad).

Game 4115639

Round 7

Time Remaining

00hrs 58min 19sec

2009-01-25 20:04:54 - Sasha Grey deployed 6 troops on Denver
2009-01-25 20:05:00 - Sasha Grey assaulted Dallas from Denver and conquered it from Gargalee

7 armies to 1 and I lose all? This has gone on every game for the last 3 or 4....come one now...this is no longer random.

Sasha Grey wrote:Game 4115639

Round 7

Time Remaining

00hrs 58min 19sec

2009-01-25 20:04:54 - Sasha Grey deployed 6 troops on Denver
2009-01-25 20:05:00 - Sasha Grey assaulted Dallas from Denver and conquered it from Gargalee

7 armies to 1 and I lose all? This has gone on every game for the last 3 or 4....come one now...this is no longer random.

I agree the dice can be awful (though perhaps not broken) but shouldn't this be in suggs and bugs?

This is a stupid topic.Get over it dude.

http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=5655

Get Dice Analyzer. It will track how (un)lucky your dice are and compare it to how they should be. Wait until you've recorded at least a few thousand rolls, and then, if you still think the dice suck, you can complain.

bigreuben wrote:Ohhh, and one last thing,if you understand strategy, just a little bit, you know that attacking is not always the best option (what you all want is for the attacking dices to be good, I didn't even saw some one who said that his passive rolls were bad).

especially in no spoils games...

So the dice are cheating you??

They really are random.......your mind just tends to remember the bad ones. Merged because this thread is like a thousand others.

<DELETE ME>
PLACE THE NAME OF THE ACCUSED IN THE SUBJECT LINE!!!

Replace or delete any xxxxxxx with the appropriate information.
Delete any accusations or entries which do not apply.

Be sure before you accuse someone!
</DELETE ME>

Accused:

dice
[player]intencity cubs/player]
[player]xxxxxxx[/player]



The accused are suspected of:

Being Multis



Game number(s):

Game 1
Game 2
Game 3
[game]xxxxxxx[/game]
all gamez


Comments:
the intencity cubs are lyk th dice theye allways roll 1 and the defednre allways roll 6. it has happnd to me evry timwe. the dice are not fixd, even though they are intencity cubs now. it s'not fair i think the defednre shud get noe dice if attackar has 6 armys or moar when is tihs going to be fixd it shuld be fixd lyk yestrday!! ok trhx bai

lock 'er down

.44

the dice are already busted as multis pi, you need to accuse them of "gross abuse" of the game

[rant]How can I go 6 vs 3 and not beat 1 army. Then I can go 8 vs 3, and only beat out 1 army. That isn't random. I don't care what anyone says. It's plain old BS and everyone here knows it. I don't want my dice to even out over time. I want them to even out over that fracking game![/rant]

Yes I like BSG. So what!