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Re: Streaky Dice Question

Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2011 2:26 pm
by Army of GOD
Condestável wrote:
Army of GOD wrote:
Condestável wrote:
natty_dread wrote:LIFE IS SO UNFAIR


I've seen you like to make fun of people who complain about the dice. Sure there are some outlandish claims, but ever played dice for real? I mean not only in Risk, but in games like backgammon or dice poker, for example. The thing about these streaks is true, and it is more noticeable for people who play few games.

Because you are premiums, you don't care about losing a game or twenty. You play tens of them at the same time. You just don't care for absurd streaks. To me it's pretty frustrating to mount a strategy and have the game completely f****d up because of exorbitant results that are as probable as winning the lottery every year assuming I play every week.

Fact is I also have fabulous wins, like 20 against 20 and winning 17-0, which I think it's pretty ridiculous. However you don't usually try 20vx20 unless you have nothing to lose. So, these exciting results happen mostly when you don't exactly need them, which obviously enhances negative perception.

Claim what you want. I don't have patience for this. Maps are so pretty and well made, but the game itself is an absolute killjoy compared with the real game, where dice decide the edge of taking a risk or not (hence the name), not these absurd "lemming" streaks game after game.

I was going to give 25 bucks this Christmas... LOL. Not anymore, I'm almost fed up again and sooner or later going on another 6-month vacations of this until I forget how unreal is and return for more.

You still ask why is this in decline? ask most of the people who leave, why they leave. Apart from the regulars, most of people here are in transit till they get fed off this so beloved "randomness". I wonder how many of you have a math degree, since I read so much "science" here and even psychology lessons on perception.


Have you done legitimate testing at the "randomness" of CC dice compared to "real dice"?

If you say anything but yes, then please, don't ever post again.

I was a freemium on this site for a year before becoming a premium member (some cutie bought it for me <3). Not once then did I ever question the randomness of the dice and I still don't. Here are my reasons:

1. I never tested the randomness of the dice on this site or real dice, so I wouldn't know their relation
2. Assuming they're unfair, aren't they equally unfair? It's not like your opponent gets good dice all the time while yours suck. If they streak, then they streak equally. In the end, the dice remain fair. Don't act like you're the only victim.
3. It's an online game, and seriously, my ability to give a shit is very low.



No, it's not equally unfair because you level up the annoying quantity of bullshit events by playing tens of games at the same time, like pundit gamblers, like traders. That's why you don't give a shit.

This is the crux of the question that most people don't get. This is the business secret of this site, my friend, the very reason of game limit per free accounts.

Unfortunately many people go emotional, just like bad gamblers do. And you even mock them with questionable antics, which gives them just one more reason to leave.

Ultimately the result is visible: while the clans increase and it's always the same people geeking around, the peak of overall users is long gone.


What the f*ck are you talking about?

As I already said, I was FREEMIUM longer than you've been on this site. After over a year, THEN someone bought me premium. I went a whole year without having to bitch about the dice, which you are incapable of doing.

Re: Streaky Dice Question

Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2011 2:28 pm
by Army of GOD
BigBallinStalin wrote:
Condestável wrote:Sorry, Natty, but I've played much more games in real life than here. I play here because the maps you draw are beautiful. Hands down.

The upset its that this randomizer does not give you a taste of reality. At the end of the day the average is 3.50 but it is too streaky and favours people who play tens of games.

Anyway, my rank is not bad for 80 normal games.


OH! OH! This guy belongs in the Nutty Professor category of dice complainers, correct???


http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=144298#p3144448


No, he hasn't posted any stats. Just "REAL DICE ARE BETTER".

Definitely an Equalizer.

Re: Streaky Dice Question

Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2011 10:31 pm
by BigBallinStalin
Army of GOD wrote:
BigBallinStalin wrote:
Condestável wrote:Sorry, Natty, but I've played much more games in real life than here. I play here because the maps you draw are beautiful. Hands down.

The upset its that this randomizer does not give you a taste of reality. At the end of the day the average is 3.50 but it is too streaky and favours people who play tens of games.

Anyway, my rank is not bad for 80 normal games.


OH! OH! This guy belongs in the Nutty Professor category of dice complainers, correct???


http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=144298#p3144448


No, he hasn't posted any stats. Just "REAL DICE ARE BETTER".

Definitely an Equalizer.


Dude. Didn't you see him throw down his data?

"At the end of the day the average is 3.50 but it is too streaky and favours people who play tens of games."

Can't refute that; dice must be broke!

Re: Streaky Dice Question

Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2011 10:34 pm
by Army of GOD
Never mind, he's from Portugal. I think he's using the metric system.

Re: Streaky Dice Question

Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2011 10:37 pm
by BigBallinStalin
You're right.


NEXT!

Re: Streaky Dice Question

Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2011 10:39 pm
by Condestável
BigBallinStalin wrote:
Condestável wrote:Sorry, Natty, but I've played much more games in real life than here. I play here because the maps you draw are beautiful. Hands down.

The upset its that this randomizer does not give you a taste of reality. At the end of the day the average is 3.50 but it is too streaky and favours people who play tens of games.

Anyway, my rank is not bad for 80 normal games.


OH! OH! This guy belongs in the Nutty Professor category of dice complainers, correct???


http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=144298#p3144448


And you belong to the gang of nerdies, techie fanboys or both?

Re: Streaky Dice Question

Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2011 10:56 pm
by BigBallinStalin
Condestável wrote:
BigBallinStalin wrote:
Condestável wrote:Sorry, Natty, but I've played much more games in real life than here. I play here because the maps you draw are beautiful. Hands down.

The upset its that this randomizer does not give you a taste of reality. At the end of the day the average is 3.50 but it is too streaky and favours people who play tens of games.

Anyway, my rank is not bad for 80 normal games.


OH! OH! This guy belongs in the Nutty Professor category of dice complainers, correct???


http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=144298#p3144448


And you belong to the gang of nerdies, techie fanboys or both?



AHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! MMMYYYYYY FEEEEEEEEEELLINNNGGSS!!!!!


NOOOOOOO!!!!!! A MORTAL INTERNET WOUND!!!!!!




Image

Re: Streaky Dice Question

Posted: Sat Dec 03, 2011 3:43 am
by natty dread
Image

Re: Streaky Dice Question

Posted: Sat Dec 03, 2011 10:24 pm
by Metsfanmax
Army of GOD wrote:Never mind, he's from Portugal. I think he's using the metric system.


That'll be one Royale with Cheese, please.

Re: Streaky Dice Question

Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2011 5:58 pm
by Condestável
I should also post my interesting stats vs freemiums and preemiums.

They are most amusing.

Re: Streaky Dice Question

Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2011 8:11 pm
by natty dread

Code: Select all

Overall battle outcomes
     Condestável 4.9   vs   all opponents
     3 vs 2    3 vs 1    2 vs 2    2 vs 1    1 vs 2    1 vs 1
     Luck    Kills    Losses    Luck    Kills    Losses    Luck    Kills    Losses    Luck    Kills    Losses    Luck    Kills    Losses    Luck    Kills    Losses
Assault    -1%    2083    1825    +3%    1416    649    +3%    79    109    -5%    93    83    0%    11    32    -1%    53    76
Defend    +1%    1101    1249    +1%    552    1044    -3%    86    62    +1%    91    122    +4%    33    9    +8%    96    48
Total    0%    3184    3074    +2%    1968    1693    0%    165    171    -2%    184    205    +2%    44    41    +4%    149    124


3v2 total 0%
3v1 total +2%

You have pretty good stats there.

Re: Streaky Dice Question

Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2011 8:28 pm
by Victor Sullivan
ALL HAIL SPHERE GOD?

-Sully

Re: Streaky Dice Question

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 2:11 am
by Condestável
natty_dread wrote:
You have pretty good stats there.


Try again. Check the difference between me vs other freemiums and me vs premiums.

Stats are there. I have also several screen shots of auto assaults.

This will be fun.

Re: Streaky Dice Question

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 5:19 am
by natty dread
Ok. Which freemiums / premiums should I check you against? I'll just pick a few guys from this thread...

I'm a premium. My stats are:

3v2 0%
3v1 0%

Victor Sullivan is a premium. His stats:

3v2 0%
3v1 0%

BigBallinStalin, a premium:

3v2 0%
3v1 0%

chang50, a freemium:

3v2 0%
3v1 0%

And lastly, again, your stats:

3v2 0%
3v1 +2%

So it seems like your dice are a little bit better than most other players, regardless of premium.

You're right, this was fun.

Re: Streaky Dice Question

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 5:49 am
by Condestável
First roll of the day against a premium.

Game start, deploy 6.
Attack 9 vs 3

Auto-attack:

Me: ....... Premium:
3-1-4 ------- 6-2
6-6-6 ------- 6-6
2-4-3 ------- 6-6

Outcome: 2 vs 2
Game over.

You know, natty_dread, spare me your snide remarks, characterizations and pseudo-humour.

Conquer Club is a business and it's obvious. If you like it it's ok, but don't bullshit me.

I don't have any doubts that CC uses a stupid system which is proven to be far from real... specially regarding freemiums.

Re: Streaky Dice Question

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 7:53 am
by natty dread
Now that was a classroom example of confirmation bias.

You just took one single event from among thousands of battles and used it to confirm your biased view. Even when all the evidence shows that your dice are just as good as anyone else's.

Condestável wrote:You know, natty_dread, spare me your snide remarks, characterizations and pseudo-humour.


Sorry, I didn't mean to hurt your fee-fees. Want a cookie?

Re: Streaky Dice Question

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 9:53 am
by AndyDufresne
Condestável wrote:I don't have any doubts that CC uses a stupid system which is proven to be far from real... specially regarding freemiums.


Could you write up more about your hypothesis, or theory, or conspiracy theory?


--Andy

Re: Streaky Dice Question

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 9:59 am
by Condestável
natty_dread wrote:Now that was a classroom example of confirmation bias.

You just took one single event from among thousands of battles and used it to confirm your biased view. Even when all the evidence shows that your dice are just as good as anyone else's.

Condestável wrote:You know, natty_dread, spare me your snide remarks, characterizations and pseudo-humour.


Sorry, I didn't mean to hurt your fee-fees. Want a cookie?


Quit buffoonery and check my stats against premiums.

Re: Streaky Dice Question

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 10:25 am
by BigBallinStalin
Condestável wrote:
natty_dread wrote:Now that was a classroom example of confirmation bias.

You just took one single event from among thousands of battles and used it to confirm your biased view. Even when all the evidence shows that your dice are just as good as anyone else's.

Condestável wrote:You know, natty_dread, spare me your snide remarks, characterizations and pseudo-humour.


Sorry, I didn't mean to hurt your fee-fees. Want a cookie?


Quit buffoonery and check my stats against premiums.


He could have something here! It could be true that the defense dice for premium members roll better against non-premium attacking dice. DISCRIMINATION! Lackattack is one hell of a trickster! And he's racist!


Put away the science! It's time to get angry for no good reason!





Image

Re: Streaky Dice Question

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 11:00 am
by spiesr
Condestável wrote:Quit buffoonery and check my stats against premiums.
There is not currently a way for us to check your dice rolls against premium opponents and against freemium opponents separately. The only way for this to happen would be for you to check your dice stats against each opponent individually and then sum up all the data.

Re: Streaky Dice Question

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 1:11 pm
by canadian bacon
Condestável wrote:
natty_dread wrote:Now that was a classroom example of confirmation bias.

You just took one single event from among thousands of battles and used it to confirm your biased view. Even when all the evidence shows that your dice are just as good as anyone else's.

Condestável wrote:You know, natty_dread, spare me your snide remarks, characterizations and pseudo-humour.


Sorry, I didn't mean to hurt your fee-fees. Want a cookie?


Quit buffoonery and check my stats against premiums.



Last 5 battles
Assault +12%
Defend +44%
Total +16%

Overall
Attack 0%
Defend +2%
Total +1%


Last opponents
Red Army! Premium 1 on 1 lost
tomtorresson Premium 1 on 1 lost
krchada F2P 1 on 1 won
White Buffalo Premium 1 on 1 lost
Zantesuken F2P 1 on 1 won

Your dice have been preforming adequately based on your luck chart perhaps it's because of superior opponents?
Let's try to find a pattern in the games you've played.
8440189 Premiums present, F2P won
8454041 Premiums present, F2P won
8454472 No premiums present
8454764 Premiums present, F2P won
8468491 No premiums present
8487067 No premiums present
8487562 Premiums present, premium won
8487668 No premiums present
8498241 Premiums present, premiums won. Note this was a doubles game and you were the only F2P.
8510413 No premiums present.
8573366 Premiums present, F2P won. Note this was a triples game and you were on a team of 2 premiums.
8601834 Premiums present, premiums won. Doubles game.
8615264 Premiums present F2P won, Trips game.
8634671 No premiums present.
8636265 No premiums present.
8663673 Premiums present, F2P won. Doubles game.
8685083 Premiums present, F2P won. Doubles game.
8685091 Premiums present, premiums won. Doubles game.
8717426 No premiums present.
8717431 Premiums present, premiums won. Note there was only one premium in the game. Doubles game

I think that visualizes the pattern, now for the end results (of entire play history.)

Of all the games you have played with premiums the winners are...
premiums: 19 wins
F2P: 16 wins
mixed teams: 8 wins
you: 13 wins

The record shows just as many games are won by F2P as are won by premiums.

Re: Streaky Dice Question

Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 1:15 pm
by canadian bacon
Condestável wrote:First roll of the day against a premium.

Game start, deploy 6.
Attack 9 vs 3

Auto-attack:

Me: ....... Premium:
3-1-4 ------- 6-2
6-6-6 ------- 6-6
2-4-3 ------- 6-6

Outcome: 2 vs 2
Game over.

You know, natty_dread, spare me your snide remarks, characterizations and pseudo-humour.

Conquer Club is a business and it's obvious. If you like it it's ok, but don't bullshit me.

I don't have any doubts that CC uses a stupid system which is proven to be far from real... specially regarding freemiums.



PLEASE keep posting rolls, I just ask you don't cherry pick the ones that are favorable to your argument.....Please keep a list of your rolls and when it gets sufficiently long post it here..... I would LOVE to see it.

Re: Streaky Dice Question

Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 4:12 am
by Geger
AndyDufresne wrote:
Condestável wrote:I don't have any doubts that CC uses a stupid system which is proven to be far from real... specially regarding freemiums.


Could you write up more about your hypothesis, or theory, or conspiracy theory?


--Andy


I also want to know, because I just found something interesting ;)

Re: Streaky Dice Question

Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2011 2:01 am
by Condestável
canadian bacon wrote:
Condestável wrote:
PLEASE keep posting rolls, I just ask you don't cherry pick the ones that are favorable to your argument.....Please keep a list of your rolls and when it gets sufficiently long post it here..... I would LOVE to see it.


I have a good series of screenshots, though I have not patience for this fight.

Check for an instance my last 25 rolls against Red Army!, I would also tell you to check against xcoobyx and many others, but these stats seem to be ephemeral. Should have kept my own.

Battles against neutrals in games against premiums is yet another wall. In Antarctica for example I tried 2 different approaches. No matter how I play, the opponent number of troops will always catch up mine even before we engage in battle. I can't simply advance through neutrals like they do, no matter it's 5vs2 or 10vs2.

Then again, as I told, I have made my mind about this and won't take part of internet squabbles. There will always be a lobby committed to attack any person who raises doubts.

Re: Streaky Dice Question

Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2011 2:19 am
by Army of GOD
You're right Condestavel. lackattack told me spefically, when you first signed up on this website: "I don't like that man. In fact, I dislike him so much from now until he quits this site I am going to make his dice extremely terrible. God, f*ck that Condestavel."