Conquer Club

DAY 5 - 16.07.2007

analyzer image:


my most thrown dice of the day: 4
defender's most thrown dice of the day: 2

my most thrown dice ever: 2
defender's most thrown dice ever: 2


my least thrown dice of the day: 2
defender's least thrown dice of the day: 4

my least thrown dice ever: 4
defender's least thrown dice ever: 1

comments: the 1 good day one bad day rhythm is still here. today was rather bad. well not actually bad but it was worse than yesterday. i've thrown more 2s while the defender started throwing more 6s. despite having better dice than yesterday my battle outcomes have somewhat dropped. the battle outcomes are roughly unchanged as i'm under the ideal stats at all except 3v1, and 2v1.

interesting bits: at some point today i had reached 1558 but at the end of the day i find myself at a lower spot than yesterday with just 1525

worst battle: 11vs1 i lost 5
best battle: nothing special.

DAY 6 - 17.07.2007

analyzer image:


my most thrown dice of the day: 4
defender's most thrown dice of the day: 6

my most thrown dice ever: 2
defender's most thrown dice ever: 2


my least thrown dice of the day: 3
defender's least thrown dice of the day: 2

my least thrown dice ever: 1
defender's least thrown dice ever: 1

comments: today was roughly the same as yesterday. the battle outcomes are the same as i'm under the ideal stats at all except 3v1, and 2v1.

interesting bits: today i dropped even more points. i'm now at 1502

worst battle: nothing special.
best battle: nothing special.

I find the following variables that have never been tracked but I believe impact the dice:

1.) Day of the week
2.) Time of day
3.) Waiting between rolls after losing or hitting attack as quickly as possible after winning
4.) Making an illegal attack after losing an army seems to bring back a win the next roll
5.) Logging out after losing a few times brings a win
6.) Similar patterns in the dice if for example you start by losing 2 then you tie then you win 2 etc.
7.) Attacking Neutrals or regular armies
8.) Attacking what country from what country

I appreciate DiM's analysis and I can appreciate even more why no one has been able to do a complete analysis of all these variables. Can anyone build a better dice analyzer? It would be interesting to add the number of troops won and lost stats as well.

What I do know is these dice are not the same as rolling actual dice.

Thanks for sharing DiM!

Jackary wrote:I find the following variables that have never been tracked but I believe impact the dice:

1.) Day of the week
2.) Time of day
3.) Waiting between rolls after losing or hitting attack as quickly as possible after winning
4.) Making an illegal attack after losing an army seems to bring back a win the next roll
5.) Logging out after losing a few times brings a win
6.) Similar patterns in the dice if for example you start by losing 2 then you tie then you win 2 etc.
7.) Attacking Neutrals or regular armies
8.) Attacking what country from what country

I appreciate DiM's analysis and I can appreciate even more why no one has been able to do a complete analysis of all these variables. Can anyone build a better dice analyzer? It would be interesting to add the number of troops won and lost stats as well.

What I do know is these dice are not the same as rolling actual dice.

Thanks for sharing DiM!

if the dice are so random..what does any of that have to do with it?....

"random" isn't dictated by time or country and all the other stuff you have there.......that wouldn't be random it would be controlled by all of the above....

you do not control the dice with all that if they are "RANDOM" dice...

my analyzer looks worse then his with less then 15% on almost all of the stats!

Jackary wrote:I find the following variables that have never been tracked but I believe impact the dice:

1.) Day of the week
2.) Time of day
3.) Waiting between rolls after losing or hitting attack as quickly as possible after winning
4.) Making an illegal attack after losing an army seems to bring back a win the next roll
5.) Logging out after losing a few times brings a win
6.) Similar patterns in the dice if for example you start by losing 2 then you tie then you win 2 etc.
7.) Attacking Neutrals or regular armies
8.) Attacking what country from what country

I used to do number 5 a lot, before auto-attack. In my, I suppose biased, view, it seemed to help make bad luck not as streaky. However, once I had to win a 6v1 battle to eliminate someone for their cards in a tough escalating game, and I would click "attack", lose, log in and out, click attack again, and doing this I still lost the battle So, I suppose it probably doesn't matter.

Jackary wrote:I find the following variables that have never been tracked but I believe impact the dice:

1.) Day of the week
2.) Time of day
3.) Waiting between rolls after losing or hitting attack as quickly as possible after winning
4.) Making an illegal attack after losing an army seems to bring back a win the next roll
5.) Logging out after losing a few times brings a win
6.) Similar patterns in the dice if for example you start by losing 2 then you tie then you win 2 etc.
7.) Attacking Neutrals or regular armies
8.) Attacking what country from what country

I appreciate DiM's analysis and I can appreciate even more why no one has been able to do a complete analysis of all these variables. Can anyone build a better dice analyzer? It would be interesting to add the number of troops won and lost stats as well.

What I do know is these dice are not the same as rolling actual dice.

Thanks for sharing DiM!

the 1-8 things you posted really have nothing to do with what dice you roll. i don't think rolling on sunday will bring you more sixes and on monday more ones.

as for the loging out before attack kissing your mouse or sacrificing a virgin those are just superstitions.

but i agree the analyzer could have more stats like how many kills you had all split up for the various battle outcomes plus a total.

u still going about this

chessplaya wrote:u still going about this

yep. i want to keep track of my dice and see if i can draw some conclusions.

DiM wrote:

chessplaya wrote:u still going about this

yep. i want to keep track of my dice and see if i can draw some conclusions.

Wished i had half that patience u have!

I hope you are making so many attacks 1 v 1 for the sake of this experiment because it's not a very smart thing to do in general. As you can see from my stats below, I'm below average in all rolls with the very minor exception of the 3 times I've rolled 1 v 2. However, I would imagine that, over all, my stats are better than yours because I avoid poor odds more often than you. I have rolled more than twice as many dice as you and yet have half as many attacks 1 v2 and less attacks 1 v1.



3v2 270 / 265 / 206 (36.44% / 35.76% / 27.8%) (37.17% / 33.58% /29.26%)
3v1 635 / 350 (64.47% / 35.53%) (65.97% / 34.03%)
2v2 1 / 3 / 6 (10% / 30% / 60%) (22.76% / 32.41% / 44.83%)
2v1 21 / 20 (51.22% / 48.78%) (57.87% / 42.13%)
1v2 1 / 2 (33.33% / 66.67%) (25.46% / 74.54%)
1v1 6 / 16 (27.27% / 72.73%) (41.67% / 58.33%)

detlef wrote:I hope you are making so many attacks 1 v 1 for the sake of this experiment because it's not a very smart thing to do in general.

well it depends. sometimes i attack 5vs1 to break a bonus. and in many cases it comes down to 2vs1 which in fact is 1vs1. so i don't attack 1vs1 on purpose it's just that the dice lead me that way.

DAY 7 - 18.07.2007

analyzer image:


my most thrown dice of the day: 1
defender's most thrown dice of the day: 4

my most thrown dice ever: 2
defender's most thrown dice ever: 2


my least thrown dice of the day: 6 and 4
defender's least thrown dice of the day: 6

my least thrown dice ever: 4
defender's least thrown dice ever: 1

comments: today was an average day. the battle outcomes have improved as i'm over the ideal stats at 3v2, 3v1, and 2v1.

interesting bits: score remains the same at 1502.

worst battle: nothing special.
best battle: nothing special.

DAY 8 - 19.07.2007

analyzer image:


my most thrown dice of the day: 5
defender's most thrown dice of the day: 1

my most thrown dice ever: 5
defender's most thrown dice ever: 2


my least thrown dice of the day: 1 and 3
defender's least thrown dice of the day: 4

my least thrown dice ever: 1
defender's least thrown dice ever: 1

comments: today was a good day the defender had poor dice while i had good ones. the battle outcomes are the same as yesterday and i'm over the ideal stats at 3v2, 3v1, and 2v1.

interesting bits: i have improved the score to 1555. just 3 points shy of a personal best.

worst battle: 10vs4. i stopped at 4vs4
best battle: 15vs7 killed all lost none.

DAY 9 - 20.07.2007

analyzer image:


my most thrown dice of the day: 2
defender's most thrown dice of the day: 2

my most thrown dice ever: 5
defender's most thrown dice ever: 2


my least thrown dice of the day: 6
defender's least thrown dice of the day: 6

my least thrown dice ever: 4
defender's least thrown dice ever: 1

comments: today both me and the defender had crappy dice rolling mostly 2s and less 6s. so i guess it evens out. the battle outcomes are the same as yesterday as i'm over the ideal stats at 3v2, 3v1, and 2v1.

interesting bits: score still 1555.

worst battle: nothing interesting.
best battle: nothing interesting.

great job dim, keep up the good work, a lot are interested on what you are doing

Blitzaholic wrote:great job dim, keep up the good work, a lot are interested on what you are doing

thanks for the encouragement.

Only on Conquer Club could someone post a daily blog about Dice. Hehe, but it is amusing and fun to see.


--Andy

AndyDufresne wrote:Only on Conquer Club could someone post a daily blog about Dice. Hehe, but it is amusing and fun to see.


--Andy

only on CC you discover you would have preferred to be a 16th century cartographer instead of a night manager at a local hotel

hi

i cant help to notice but the 1 vs 1 is always very far from the ideal.

from my experience in real risk, you have a higher chance of winning those
also, i have a very hard time with my 3 vs 1s
i always lose bout 40% of those damn 1s which is very annoying to say the least. im more afraid of 1s than 4s or 5s actually..

DAY 10 - 21.07.2007

analyzer image:


my most thrown dice of the day: 4
defender's most thrown dice of the day: 3

my most thrown dice ever: 5
defender's most thrown dice ever: 5


my least thrown dice of the day: 6
defender's least thrown dice of the day: 6

my least thrown dice ever: 6
defender's least thrown dice ever: 6

comments: today i had some nice rolls. the battle outcomes are the same as yesterday as i'm over the ideal stats at 3v2, 3v1, and 2v1.

interesting bits: today i set a new highscore. 1598. just 2 points shy of the promotion i'll get it tomorrow.

worst battle: 9vs3 lost 8 killed none. (this was the elimination i needed to get those extra points for the promotion
best battle: i had 7 troops in one terit and managed to take 3 terits with 3 troops in each without a single loss.

Your best battle had an 11.6% chance of occurring, surprisingly. On your worst battle, how did you lose 10 when you had a 9v3?

Your 15v7 killing all losing none from day 8 has a 3.4% chance of happening; losing 6 from a 10v4 is about 2.7%.

So far, in the last week (days 4 through 10, 743 dice lines used), there have only been 2 fairly unusual outcomes (about 0.1% and 0.3%); everything else has been basically normal.

Bean_ wrote:Your best battle had an 11.6% chance of occurring, surprisingly. On your worst battle, how did you lose 10 when you had a 9v3?

Your 15v7 killing all losing none from day 8 has a 3.4% chance of happening; losing 6 from a 10v4 is about 2.7%.

So far, in the last week (days 4 through 10, 743 dice lines used), there have only been 2 fairly unusual outcomes (about 0.1% and 0.3%); everything else has been basically normal.

yep sorry about that.

i first wrote 11vs3 and lost 10 but then after some thinking i remembered i don't think i had double digits. and i wrote 9. but i can't really remember the exact number i'll ask wacicha perhaps he was watching the game when that happened.

and indeed the rolls are fairly normal. especially in the days i said nothing interesting happened

DAY 11 - 22.07.2007

analyzer image:


my most thrown dice of the day: 4 and 2
defender's most thrown dice of the day: 5 and 4

my most thrown dice ever: 2
defender's most thrown dice ever: 5


my least thrown dice of the day: 6 and 3
defender's least thrown dice of the day: 1

my least thrown dice ever: 6
defender's least thrown dice ever: 6

comments: today i had worse dice than yesterday but the battle outcomes are roughly the same as i'm over the ideal stats at 3v2, 3v1, and 2v1.

interesting bits: today i got a promotion and a new highscore. 1634. i'm a sargeant 1st class for the first time. this is the first time i regret the old ranks. i think i would have been captain or higher.

worst battle: nothing interesting
best battle: nothing interesting

What day is it?

hmm i was sure i posted here i'm stopping this because i'm getting depressed when looking at the analyzer.
i'm sure i posted somewhere.

anyway my most thrown dice is by far 2 (17.8%) and 6 is the least thrown with just 15.4%. while defender rolls mostly 6's with 17.32%

so go figure. i'm either the unluckiest ccer or somebody has hacked random.org to piss me off.