Conquer Club

The law of large numbers states that given a large enough sample size, the results average out.
It seems you are experiencing it's corollary though:
The law of truly large numbers states that given a large enough sample size, any outragious thing is likely to happen.

IkkeTM wrote:The law of large numbers states that given a large enough sample size, the results average out.
It seems you are experiencing it's corollary though:
The law of truly large numbers states that given a large enough sample size, any outragious thing is likely to happen.

Yep, the ease of playing games and rolling make it seem like it's 1 in 1,000,000 that something will happen. But some players like the OP, have thrown 3 mil attack dice. So that player should have had a that 1 in a million change happen 3 times.

If the dice are bad, they're equally bad for everyone, so complaining about the dice is really silly imo. We all get streaks of terrible dice from time to time.

IkkeTM wrote:The law of large numbers states that given a large enough sample size, the results average out.
It seems you are experiencing it's corollary though:
The law of truly large numbers states that given a large enough sample size, any outragious thing is likely to happen.

Your overall dice stats look OK to me
https://www.conquerclub.com/player.php?mode=dice1

My average defending roll is 3.51, compared to my opponents' average of 3.50.

Thanks, premium!

Lama, my strategy is simply ...roll sixes.

2 be honust I think people that believe there is any other "strategy" are fooling themselves.


Try the XENO game..World at War.... works like Axis and Allies, begins in 1939 Germany moves first.
(if ur into it paint the map on a 4x8 board)

THAT is a strategy game, whats really neat about it is a good strategy overcomes lousy dice.
A thing of beauty, a dice game where dice dont determine the winner, the strategy does.

With risk, the only strategy is to roll sixes.
He who rolls sixes wins.


And that is why a crappy dice algo totally destroys the game.

I have been using armati's strategy of rolling 6's since he revealed it. I am on my way to conquerer. Look out Paula, prepare to be stripped of your ill-gotten title.

Thanks armati.

armati wrote:Lama, my strategy is simply ...roll sixes.

2 be honust I think people that believe there is any other "strategy" are fooling themselves.


Try the XENO game..World at War.... works like Axis and Allies, begins in 1939 Germany moves first.
(if ur into it paint the map on a 4x8 board)

THAT is a strategy game, whats really neat about it is a good strategy overcomes lousy dice.
A thing of beauty, a dice game where dice dont determine the winner, the strategy does.

With risk, the only strategy is to roll sixes.
He who rolls sixes wins.


And that is why a crappy dice algo totally destroys the game.

I am sure you would be Conqueror if not for the dice. Instead of... you know.

TeeGee wrote:

IkkeTM wrote:The law of large numbers states that given a large enough sample size, the results average out.
It seems you are experiencing it's corollary though:
The law of truly large numbers states that given a large enough sample size, any outragious thing is likely to happen.

Your overall dice stats look OK to me
https://www.conquerclub.com/player.php?mode=dice1

The problem with this conclusion is that you can have ridiculously good dice, cancelling out ridiculously bad dice to make the average ok.

The issue I have is that they are both ridiculous.

I think the weird stuff happens more often than it should here. That works both ways. You get really good dice and really bad dice, but both times it ruins a game. Particularly the games I play, which are more sensitive to having a couple of good or bad rolls at the start of the game

BrutalBob wrote:I think the weird stuff happens more often than it should here. That works both ways. You get really good dice and really bad dice, but both times it ruins a game. Particularly the games I play, which are more sensitive to having a couple of good or bad rolls at the start of the game

>plays using maps and settings where the game can be thrown by one player having a little bit of luck early on
>complains about games being spoiled by the luck of the dice

mrswdk wrote:

BrutalBob wrote:I think the weird stuff happens more often than it should here. That works both ways. You get really good dice and really bad dice, but both times it ruins a game. Particularly the games I play, which are more sensitive to having a couple of good or bad rolls at the start of the game

>plays using maps and settings where the game can be thrown by one player having a little bit of luck early on
>complains about games being spoiled by the luck of the dice

Yes.

Wouldnt that be the ideal situation to complain about such dice? Why would I complain about bad dice on a map/setting combination where the dice had no impact?

Alternative question: if you get so worked up when you lose a game as the result of your opponent getting lucky then why do you play maps/settings that make you are more heavily dependent on luck?

Seems like all you have to do is change the settings you play on and this wouldn't be an issue for you.

This is the shit i am talking about. Start two games, play first turn in each, where a good start is pretty crucial. Five attacks- two games- may not yet be ruined, sometimes your opponent has equally crap luck

I have posted here before.... Just now, my dice dropped to -45 luck for attack. It's about the tenth time this month my luck is almost nil. Why? have I offended the conquer club gods? Once, it dropped to -60. What a joke. then there are other games in which I win every dice roll, get 10 armies and 6 bonus on the flat rate spoils, and then another game I receive EIGHT red spoils cards in a row, which is about a 20 000-1 longshot because I did the Math. Almost every game I play is decided by incredibly loaded dice. Why????????

rotean wrote:I have posted here before.... Just now, my dice dropped to -45 luck for attack. It's about the tenth time this month my luck is almost nil. Why? have I offended the conquer club gods? Once, it dropped to -60. What a joke. then there are other games in which I win every dice roll, get 10 armies and 6 bonus on the flat rate spoils, and then another game I receive EIGHT red spoils cards in a row, which is about a 20 000-1 longshot because I did the Math. Almost every game I play is decided by incredibly loaded dice. Why????????

You're probably playing sober. I've found that getting drunk before I take my turns leads to better dice.

Dukasaur wrote:

rotean wrote:I have posted here before.... Just now, my dice dropped to -45 luck for attack. It's about the tenth time this month my luck is almost nil. Why? have I offended the conquer club gods? Once, it dropped to -60. What a joke. then there are other games in which I win every dice roll, get 10 armies and 6 bonus on the flat rate spoils, and then another game I receive EIGHT red spoils cards in a row, which is about a 20 000-1 longshot because I did the Math. Almost every game I play is decided by incredibly loaded dice. Why????????

You're probably playing sober. I've found that getting drunk before I take my turns leads to better dice.

I just did a line of blow. My dice are fucking unreal. FYI.

Butters1919 wrote:

Dukasaur wrote:

rotean wrote:I have posted here before.... Just now, my dice dropped to -45 luck for attack. It's about the tenth time this month my luck is almost nil. Why? have I offended the conquer club gods? Once, it dropped to -60. What a joke. then there are other games in which I win every dice roll, get 10 armies and 6 bonus on the flat rate spoils, and then another game I receive EIGHT red spoils cards in a row, which is about a 20 000-1 longshot because I did the Math. Almost every game I play is decided by incredibly loaded dice. Why????????

You're probably playing sober. I've found that getting drunk before I take my turns leads to better dice.

I just did a line of blow. My dice are fucking unreal. FYI.

Now you just need to drink and you'll be unstoppable

Shannon Apple wrote:If the dice are bad, they're equally bad for everyone....

This is an unsubstantiated assumption.
One which I do not believe to be factual.

BrutalBob wrote:This is the shit i am talking about. Start two games, play first turn in each, where a good start is pretty crucial. Five attacks- two games- may not yet be ruined, sometimes your opponent has equally crap luck

Check your dice 'stats' page, take 5 turns and chart your dice, then revisit the dice 'stats' page and look at the results.
At that point you will understand the value of the 'stats'

I just did a dice roll 3v2, I rolled 3, 2, 2 and my opponent rolled 5, 5. This gave me a win rate of 0% compared to his win rate of 100% - UNFAIR DICE.

Symmetry wrote:Generating a number between 1 and 6 would naturally give an average of 3.5, but that tends to be rounded up to 4, as 3.5 isn't a valid output here. The generator must be generating numbers to a higher number of decimal places to avoid the average being 4.

How does CC process the numbers?

I'm curious, because if you're just taking one of the numbers in an apparently random set, it might be a problem.

WUT?

My dice were so bad today when I was rollin 6's they were minus 6's

The problem with the dice is - they're not random (as they were before, drawn from a static noise). The current dice system is such that it "knows" which dice it will give you before you attack. So it's not anymore about luck, it's all about your position in a queue. Yes, everyone is somewhere in the queue, but the list is per-generated instead of being random. So "if you're having a bad dice, wait few minutes before attacking again" is not working anymore because you will get the next number in the list no matter how much you wait.

So the list has a lot of numbers from 1 to 6 in it and there are equal number of each in it so it will eventually turn luck to be 0% after you go through the list, but it looks like it was generated in a way that some large streaks can happen and it only depends where you are in it and where your opponent is.

Imagine a list of numbers like this one, every representing one roll:
143263446234423212314335346554354423412212343
--------a^-----------b^--------------------------------------
If you are at the a pointer you will get 4,4,6 if you attack with a 3 dice, and if your opponent is at b marker he will get 1,2 as defense, thus making you win. Now imagine a lot larger list of numbers which are shuffled and your position in them is saved. So it's not random. After 4,4,6, the system knows your next roll will be 2, then 3, then, 4 etc. and the same for the opponent, after 1,2 goes 3, then 1, then 4 etc. eventually making all numbers drawn equal times.

That said, no luck is involved here, it's just a list of numbers made to always be 0% of luck.

dakky21 wrote:The problem with the dice is - they're not random (as they were before, drawn from a static noise). The current dice system is such that it "knows" which dice it will give you before you attack. So it's not anymore about luck, it's all about your position in a queue. Yes, everyone is somewhere in the queue, but the list is per-generated instead of being random. So "if you're having a bad dice, wait few minutes before attacking again" is not working anymore because you will get the next number in the list no matter how much you wait.

The list is not unique to each person, it's spread across the entire CC player base. So when you decide to roll does matter, given that other players will be rolling if you wait.

So the list has a lot of numbers from 1 to 6 in it and there are equal number of each in it so it will eventually turn luck to be 0% after you go through the list, but it looks like it was generated in a way that some large streaks can happen and it only depends where you are in it and where your opponent is.

There is no such thing as you being at a point in the list and your opponent being at a different point in the list. There's just a list that is drawn from every time rolls are needed. If you roll, it generates both you and your opponent's dice from consecutive data in the list.

Im slow at finding how this works or where to click.
I found a page that shows all my dice rolls, totally even across the board.
ok, if its true, probly is, the only reason I can see the dice being crappy and still look even is for all those time when I lose 6-10 guys in a row killing a single, I win huge somewhere, evening out the dice rolls.
Many times I have killed unthinkable numbers of armies with only 4 guys.
So, I can see the dice evening out.
But killing 20/25 guys with 4 just doesnt happen using actual dice, nor does losing 10 guys killing a single.
altho both can happen of course, the odds of it happening any where near it happening as it does with an algo have got to be close to impossible.
so its not the average dice rolls that are crappy, its how the average dice rolls happen that is lousy.

I wonder if recognizing this difference would take human understanding, over AI or just taking a pewter record at face value?

If anyone can recall the Twilight Zone, I can see an episode where dice algoes would be the first clue as to how AI is going to treat humanity.
Hawkins has already voiced his concerns. lol