Conquer Club

IronE.GLE wrote:I see your point, however I'm specifically talking about instances when I have 20 or so armies and try to take over 6 territories with 1 army each. More often than not, when I'm finished taking over those 6 territories I end up with 4 or 5 armies left of the original 20. I realize that I'm leaving 5 behind to occupy conquered territories, but I'm still losing 9 or 10 armies to the 6 defending armies. Now say that I have 20 and am attacking 3 countries, one with 12 armies and the other two with 1 army each. More often than not, I'll lose only 1 or 2 armies to the main force of 12, then lose 4 or 5 straight rolls to the 1 countries with army on them. It's quite frustrating as I'd rather lose a few more to the larger force so that I don't feel like my soldiers got drunk after the first battle.

I think I understand what you're saying. The only thing I could say about that is maybe we remember the rolls where we expect to advance more than the rolls when we don't expect to advance.

For example, if I'm attacking 10v4, I'm not expecting to advance after my first attack, in fact, I'm actually expecting to lose a few armies in my series of attacks. I'm going to remember if I don't conquer the conquer but I'm going to be more forgiving over a few loses.

On the other hand, if I'm attacking 8 v 1, I'm actually expecting to advance after my first attack. If I don't win the first attack I remember it because I actually expected to. If I lose the second attack, then it becomes engraved on my memory.

I guess I'm saying that what you're experiencing may just be a natural part of human psychology in that we tend to remember unexpected things more easily, things that surprised us rather than things that we expected to happen.

Get some sleep, you want to have a clear head when you're playing here.

No sleep till this evening. Some friends are coming over the NFL Draft and I'm making meatloaf with homemade BBQ sauce. I have been mulling over trying to chicken fry slices of the meatloaf. Nobody I have asked has ever had it that way, so I'm thinking of using my friends as guinea pigs

Anyway, again I see your point, but I actually expect to lose those rolls now In my first 30 or so games, I never let my dice rolls determine my strategy, but over time I've had to adjust to the way the dice fall on this site. The analyzer fully supports the laws of probability, but when I actually roll dice myself the outcome is much different. In 20+ years of playing Risk, I've never had the dice work against me so much. I suppose it's just probability catching up with me though

Right now mine tells me that: I lose in every type of battle more than I should

Aries wrote:Right now mine tells me that: I lose in every type of battle more than I should

What's with the " "? If it were me, i would have something like this:

Well, I was right when I thought I have really bad luck before I had the dice analyzer

how do i run a dice analysis??

Look in the sticky at the top of this forum - it has all the add-ons and plug-ins you need for CC, including dice analyzer, although you need to get Firefox browser first (that is also in the sticky).

to much downloading : \

not worth gettni a new browser for lol

RobinJ wrote:What does your dice analyzer tell you?

When you go to Vegas...stay away from the Craps table.

Game name: 'conquerclub'

Attacker dice distribution Defender dice distribution
1s █████████████████████████ 95 / 489 (19.43%) █████████████████████████ 30 / 264 (11.36%)
2s █████████████████████████ 73 / 489 (14.93%) █████████████████████████ 36 / 264 (13.64%)
3s █████████████████████████ 80 / 489 (16.36%) █████████████████████████ 44 / 264 (16.67%)
4s █████████████████████████ 72 / 489 (14.72%) █████████████████████████ 47 / 264 (17.8%)
5s █████████████████████████ 86 / 489 (17.59%) █████████████████████████ 50 / 264 (18.94%)
6s █████████████████████████ 83 / 489 (16.97%) █████████████████████████ 57 / 264 (21.59%)

Battle Outcomes Actual Stats Ideal Stats
3v2 █████████████████████████ 26 / 28 / 37 (28.57% / 30.77% / 40.66%) (37.17% / 33.58% / 29.26%)
3v1 █████████████████████████ 38 / 26 (59.38% / 40.63%) (65.97% / 34.03%)
2v2 █████████████████████████ 2 / 1 / 2 (40% / 20% / 40%) (22.76% / 32.41% / 44.83%)
2v1 █████████████████████████ 3 / 3 (50% / 50%) (57.87% / 42.13%)
1v2 █████████████████████████ 0 / 0 (NaN% / NaN%) (25.46% / 74.54%)
1v1 █████████████████████████ 1 / 1 (50% / 50%) (41.67% / 58.33%)

Overall stats
Attacker threw 489 dice.
Defender threw 264 dice.
Wins / Ties / Loses █████████████████████████ 70 / 29 / 69
█████ Attacker wins
█████ Attacker wins 1, defender wins 1
█████ Defender wins

theres mine...not in color for some reason...
but as you can see ive rolled more 1's than anything so far today...and as for the defender:
they have rolled more as the dice go up...so if that doesnt tell you anything, you didn't make it past 3rd grade.

Backglass wrote:

RobinJ wrote:What does your dice analyzer tell you?

When you go to Vegas...stay away from the Craps table.

indeed

gimil wrote:to much downloading : \

not worth gettni a new browser for lol

It only takes a few seconds actually and some of the other add-ons are great

ParadiceCity9 wrote:theres mine...not in color for some reason...
but as you can see ive rolled more 1's than anything so far today...and as for the defender:
they have rolled more as the dice go up...so if that doesnt tell you anything, you didn't make it past 3rd grade.

Tells me you're having a bad day.

I'm not as lucky as I should be...

My rolls are pretty evenly distributed between 1-6 with the highest being 6 (17.21% and the lowest being 3 (16.08%)

The guys I attack, however, roll 6s far more than anything else (19.1%) and 1s far less than anything else (13.92%)

As for everything else, any scenarios with a decent sample to choose from, I'm slightly less lucky than i should be:

3v2 I win 2 about 34% rather than the expected 37%, I split about 2.5% more than the norm and lose 2 just slightly more often than i should.
3v1 I win slightly less often than I should (64.2% rather than 66%)
pretty much the same with 2 v1.

The worst is 1v1, I'm 0-8

i can't find it! how do you download it! someone gimmi a link!!!

IronE.GLE wrote:Dice Distribution for myself and defender is almost perfectly equal all the way down the board with the exceptions being I roll 3's 17% of the time while my opponent rolls 5's 17% of the time.



3 vs 2 -- 1728/1532/1353 for a 37% win, which I feel it pretty good

Where it goes south for me is:

3 vs 1 -- 2688/2010 for a 57% win.

You've got a legitimate gripe there if thats the real numbers. I'd like the screen shot because I didn't think anyone could be that unlucky. If you're approaching 5000 3 v 1 attacks, the percentage shouldn't be that far off. I've only had abouth 1/4 of the rolls you've had for 3 v 1 yet my percent is a lot closer with 737/395 for 65%.

Battle Outcomes Win % Tie % Lose %
3v2 █████████████████████████ 2216 / 1981 / 1715 37.48% (0.31%) 33.51% (-0.07%) 29.01% (-0.25%)
3v1 █████████████████████████ 3474 / 1798 65.90% (-0.07%) 34.10% (0.07%)
2v2 █████████████████████████ 28 / 31 / 69 21.88% (-0.89%) 24.22% (-8.19%) 53.91% (9.08%)
2v1 █████████████████████████ 121 / 96 55.76% (-2.11%) 44.24% (2.11%)
1v2 █████████████████████████ 7 / 34 17.07% (-8.39%) 82.93% (8.39%)
1v1 █████████████████████████ 58 / 70 45.31% (3.64%) 54.69% (-3.64%)

According to this I'm under in every attack except for a slight up in 3vs2.

------ My Rolls -------------------- Opponent Rolls -----
1s - 612 / 3944 (15.52%) ---- 362 / 2052 (17.64%)
2s - 651 / 3944 (16.51%) ---- 311 / 2052 (15.16%)
3s - 649 / 3944 (16.46%) ---- 336 / 2052 (16.37%)
4s - 677 / 3944 (17.17%) ---- 352 / 2052 (17.15%)
5s - 670 / 3944 (16.99%) ---- 343 / 2052 (16.72%)
6s - 685 / 3944 (17.37%) ---- 348 / 2052 (16.96%)

6s for me, 1s for you.. fear my random skills!

Splash wrote:i can't find it! how do you download it! someone gimmi a link!!!

It's in the plug-ins at the top of the forum (although that might be in the sub-forum now...)

I always thought my 3v2 dice was pretty decent and my 3v1 dice sucked however dice analyzer says otherwise.

Im 5% above 'ideal' on 3v2
and .59% above ideal on 3v1
and 74.5% above ideal on 1v2 (I guess I accidentally attacked 2v2 once and won)
1390 dice thrown. Nowhere near the legendar maniacmath

Crap, does my good luck mean bad luck ahead?

narominded wrote:I always thought my 3v2 dice was pretty decent and my 3v1 dice sucked however dice analyzer says otherwise.

Im 5% above 'ideal' on 3v2
and .59% above ideal on 3v1
and 74.5% above ideal on 1v2 (I guess I accidentally attacked 2v2 once and won)
1390 dice thrown. Nowhere near the legendar maniacmath

Crap, does my good luck mean bad luck ahead?

wat the hell man?!?!?! you are so lucky! all of my stats are down except for 1 vs 1, where im 4% over, and thats 122 wins and 200 losses, y the hell am i throwing so mayn 1 vs 1's?!?!?

altogether thrown 31,000 dice and down on all stats except that one

narominded wrote:1390 dice thrown. Nowhere near the legendar maniacmath

Crap, does my good luck mean bad luck ahead?

Well good to be legendar, I think?

And no, just because you've been lucky so far doesn't mean you will have bad luck later. Always remember that the dice don't remember your previous rolls, lol.

But what you can expect is by the time you have about 20,000 rolls, the numbers will be a lot closer to the expected. That doesn't necessarily mean you've been having bad luck, just that your good luck won't continue at its current pace.

I had a really bad string of bad dice. Hope it stops soon

Wins / Ties / Loses █████████████████████████ 1452 / 358 / 1005

looks to me like mine is level : attacks v draws and losses but i still dont understand the analyser

jaseleo wrote:Wins / Ties / Loses █████████████████████████ 1452 / 358 / 1005

looks to me like mine is level : attacks v draws and losses but i still dont understand the analyser

lol there should be alot more info than that, and ideal stats next to ur actual stats.

My 3v2s are slightly down on wins, up on ties and down on losses so I guess I can't complain too much. However, I will continue to complain about 3v1s - I used to be about 10% down but I'm still 2% down - the luck hasn't really evened out just yet unfortunately.

Then again, my 2v2s, 2v1s, 1v2s and 1v1s are all well up so the world isn't so cruel after all.