Egypt free?

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saxitoxin
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Re: Egypt free?

Post by saxitoxin »

BigBallinStalin wrote:
saxitoxin wrote:
spurgistan wrote:So, hmm, the CIA removed the only guy in Egypt who likes us. Dammit, I got fooled again. Thanks, saxi!


Oh yawn, why do I bother ... tomorrow you'll be bedazzled by some new revolution in Iran or wherever with photogenic, blue jeans-wearing youthful revolutionaries using Twitter or Facebook or some new Web 2.0 platform needing a market - all in perfect English, of course - or American Idol, etc.

It was reported as late as 2008 that Mubarak was terminally ill and the U.S. was frightened of a power-vacuum after he died.
http://www.aei.org/article/29065
    Egypt's octogenarian president, Hosni Mubarak will soon depart the scene either of his own volition or following his inevitable death or disability. Should Gamal end up succeeding his father, such an approach would leave U.S. options between a rock and a hard place.
(date of article: 2008)

Now a US-backed military dictatorship is running the country and there's no fear of Gamal Mubarak taking-over a shaky regime.

Spontaneous people's revolt. LOL. Wanna buy a bridge?


1) If they is all smoothly going so well for the CIA and/or Mossad (from now on, the CIAsad, or Ciasad), then how are they going to broker power to their enemies, the Muslim Brotherhood without pissing off the majority (or really, enough people)?

2) And, aren't you still basing this on the assumption that this is a Ciasad-engineered coup? Don't you think you're overestimating their ability to shape the politics in this country?


If you see smoke there's probably a fire.

Everything about this, from the photogenic, made-for-TV images, to the "spontaneous" throngs that materialized overnight is identical to Serbia 2000. If I'd said Serbia 2000 was a CIA-backed event people would have dismissed me with a wave and a laugh, pointing eagerly at their Tee-Vee screens and the "youth movement" running about, using "non-violent" tactics to confront jack-booted riot police, repleat with pre-Twitter slice-of-life story lines neatly packaged by CNN.

Three years later we got definitive proof (though most westerners paid it no heed) that the "Serbian youth movement" was raised and organized by CIA force-multipliers and all the Americans cheering their TV screens at the scenes from Belgrade had been played as fools by the Clinton-Bush regime. But, by then, they were all busy guffawing over the inaugural season of The Office and sexing their cousins. Simple pleasures for simple people.

Egypt 2011 was a giant, made-for-TV movie that resulted in a pro-American military dictatorship led by Don Rumsfeld's old cohort, Field Marshal Mo Tantawi, as El Supremo. But, made-for-TV movies - especially a classic Hollywood underdog-slays-the-bully storyline - sells well to glassy-eyed westerners.
Pack Rat wrote:if it quacks like a duck and walk like a duck, it's still fascism

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Re: Egypt free?

Post by saxitoxin »

By the way, I posted essentially the same thing as above, Friday, in the "Time to Protest Obama" thread.

This morning the NYT had an article that very vaguely notes the Egyptian "spontaneous youth movement" had received "training" from "Serbia" (Serbian OTPOR is universally acknowledged, as I've noted elsewhere, as a U.S. DOS operation). Huh - weird timing, I guess Saxi does know what he's talking about? (and no, I don't have listening devices scattered about [at least not in the Times' newsroom] that tipped me off they were going to run this story)

http://mobile.nytimes.com/article?a=744396&f=19&p=6

The cowardly Times stops their analysis right there. In a few years they may pick it up and finish the sentence but by then spurgistan and others will have finished cheering their little hearts out at the neatly packaged, made-for-TV "revolution" and have moved on to the next one.

The Empire's Trail: Iran '53, Korea '60, Vietnam '63, Chile '73, Liberia '80, Serbia '00, Venezuela '02 (defeated), Iran '09 (foiled), Egypt '11
Pack Rat wrote:if it quacks like a duck and walk like a duck, it's still fascism

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Re: Egypt free?

Post by saxitoxin »

Egypt Calendar: Day 4 of the Military Dictatorship

Today's Pictures:
"Best Friends Forever!"
Egyptian Supreme Ruler Field Marshal Mo Tantawi with his daddy, Bush-Obama Military-Industrial Complex CEO William Gates
Image

"Pass in Review"
Egyptian Supreme Ruler Field Marshal Mo Tantawi dutifully escorts his daddy on a tour of The Empire's Egyptian colony
Image
Pack Rat wrote:if it quacks like a duck and walk like a duck, it's still fascism

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Re: Egypt free?

Post by aage »

Phatscotty wrote:
angola wrote:
spurgistan wrote:Hamas is other Arabs. Same general skin tone, though.

Also, the general hope / expectation is that the military will step aside for elections in September. Agreed that this is not liberty and puppies for Egypt, yet, but c'mon, a popular pacifist resistance just removed a 30 year dictator-puppet from power. Let 'em dance. I dance with Egypt.


Agreed. Eighteen days of peaceful protest ended a 30-year dictator's reign. That is impressive. Well done, Egyptians.


peaceful? over 300 people are dead.

What do you expect to happen if you put (tens of) thousands of oppressed citizens and maybe some thousands of policemen on a bloody market square? You think they'll just be chilling in the few cm^2 they've got?
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Re: Egypt free?

Post by Mr_Adams »

ya, that was a peaceful revolution by most standards. the American revolution killed thousands. (just for a historic perspective.
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Re: Egypt free?

Post by BigBallinStalin »

saxitoxin wrote:
BigBallinStalin wrote:
saxitoxin wrote:
spurgistan wrote:So, hmm, the CIA removed the only guy in Egypt who likes us. Dammit, I got fooled again. Thanks, saxi!


Oh yawn, why do I bother ... tomorrow you'll be bedazzled by some new revolution in Iran or wherever with photogenic, blue jeans-wearing youthful revolutionaries using Twitter or Facebook or some new Web 2.0 platform needing a market - all in perfect English, of course - or American Idol, etc.

It was reported as late as 2008 that Mubarak was terminally ill and the U.S. was frightened of a power-vacuum after he died.
http://www.aei.org/article/29065
    Egypt's octogenarian president, Hosni Mubarak will soon depart the scene either of his own volition or following his inevitable death or disability. Should Gamal end up succeeding his father, such an approach would leave U.S. options between a rock and a hard place.
(date of article: 2008)

Now a US-backed military dictatorship is running the country and there's no fear of Gamal Mubarak taking-over a shaky regime.

Spontaneous people's revolt. LOL. Wanna buy a bridge?


1) If they is all smoothly going so well for the CIA and/or Mossad (from now on, the CIAsad, or Ciasad), then how are they going to broker power to their enemies, the Muslim Brotherhood without pissing off the majority (or really, enough people)?

2) And, aren't you still basing this on the assumption that this is a Ciasad-engineered coup? Don't you think you're overestimating their ability to shape the politics in this country?


If you see smoke there's probably a fire.

Everything about this, from the photogenic, made-for-TV images, to the "spontaneous" throngs that materialized overnight is identical to Serbia 2000. If I'd said Serbia 2000 was a CIA-backed event people would have dismissed me with a wave and a laugh, pointing eagerly at their Tee-Vee screens and the "youth movement" running about, using "non-violent" tactics to confront jack-booted riot police, repleat with pre-Twitter slice-of-life story lines neatly packaged by CNN.

Three years later we got definitive proof (though most westerners paid it no heed) that the "Serbian youth movement" was raised and organized by CIA force-multipliers and all the Americans cheering their TV screens at the scenes from Belgrade had been played as fools by the Clinton-Bush regime. But, by then, they were all busy guffawing over the inaugural season of The Office and sexing their cousins. Simple pleasures for simple people.

Egypt 2011 was a giant, made-for-TV movie that resulted in a pro-American military dictatorship led by Don Rumsfeld's old cohort, Field Marshal Mo Tantawi, as El Supremo. But, made-for-TV movies - especially a classic Hollywood underdog-slays-the-bully storyline - sells well to glassy-eyed westerners.


Let's assume that the main catalyst was the Ciasad.

If the military junta actually does hold elections (6months from now?), and then there's some lovely semblance of democracy with the Muslim Brotherhood dominating the scene (assuming that there's free elections), then wouldn't such an operation have been for the better?

Or do you think it's not in Ciasad's best interests to let the Muslim Brotherhood get any seats?
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Re: Egypt free?

Post by aage »

Mr_Adams wrote:ya, that was a peaceful revolution by most standards. the American revolution killed thousands. (just for a historic perspective.

I don't know anything about American history, so I might as well ask: did they throw out a dictator too?
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Re: Egypt free?

Post by BigBallinStalin »

saxitoxin wrote:Egypt Calendar: Day 4 of the Military Dictatorship

Today's Pictures:
"Best Friends Forever!"
Egyptian Supreme Ruler Field Marshal Mo Tantawi with his daddy, Bush-Obama Military-Industrial Complex CEO William Gates
Image


Jeez, saxi, isn't that Robert Gates?

Or does William "Bill" Gates don a Robert Gates skin suit while working as Secretary of Defense?
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Re: Egypt free?

Post by Mr_Adams »

:lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Egypt free?

Post by saxitoxin »

BigBallinStalin wrote:
saxitoxin wrote:Egypt Calendar: Day 4 of the Military Dictatorship

Today's Pictures:
"Best Friends Forever!"
Egyptian Supreme Ruler Field Marshal Mo Tantawi with his daddy, Bush-Obama Military-Industrial Complex CEO William Gates
Image


Jeez, saxi, isn't that Robert Gates?

Or does William "Bill" Gates don a Robert Gates skin suit while working as Secretary of Defense?


Sorry, a bad and overtly subtle reference to the Canadian defence minister calling him "Bill Gates" the other week (see: "This Week in Canada" thread). :(

Sometimes Saxi's jocularity falls short of the mark. :P
Pack Rat wrote:if it quacks like a duck and walk like a duck, it's still fascism

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Re: Egypt free?

Post by saxitoxin »

aage wrote:
Mr_Adams wrote:ya, that was a peaceful revolution by most standards. the American revolution killed thousands. (just for a historic perspective.

I don't know anything about American history, so I might as well ask: did they throw out a dictator too?


If you throw out one dictator (Mubarak) and replace him with a new dictator (Tatawi), did you really throw out a dictator?

If a tree falls in the forest and no one ...

BBS wrote:If the military junta actually does hold elections (6months from now?),


If you can cite a few examples from the last 100 years in which military juntas actual held elections in "6 months" or "5 years" or whatever artificial timetable they erected to buy time, I will happily answer your question. :P

Burma's junta, the Temporary State Law & Order Restoration Council, has been promising elections "next year" for the last 20 years. They've been "temporarily" running the government since 1988.
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Re: Egypt free?

Post by spurgistan »

The latest Thai coup pops into my head. I don't think banning Thaksin's party was democratic (I go with the Red Shirts) but they held elections within the year.
Mr_Adams wrote:You, sir, are an idiot.


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Re: Egypt free?

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spurgistan wrote:The latest Thai coup pops into my head. I don't think banning Thaksin's party was democratic (I go with the Red Shirts) but they held elections within the year.


Maybe I needed to specify "real elections" not "pretend/show elections."

Thailand has had 19 military coups since 1940.

A successful army takeover of all institutions of civil government every 3.5 years.

Next?
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Re: Egypt free?

Post by aage »

saxitoxin wrote:
aage wrote:
Mr_Adams wrote:ya, that was a peaceful revolution by most standards. the American revolution killed thousands. (just for a historic perspective.

I don't know anything about American history, so I might as well ask: did they throw out a dictator too?


If you throw out one dictator (Mubarak) and replace him with a new dictator (Tatawi), did you really throw out a dictator?

If a tree falls in the forest and no one ...

Yes, you really actually did throw out a dictator. You did a bad job at it, though.

But then again, does that answer the question? Are you suggesting America is still a dictatorship?
:p
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Re: Egypt free?

Post by BigBallinStalin »

saxitoxin wrote:
BBS wrote:If the military junta actually does hold elections (6months from now?),


If you can cite a few examples from the last 100 years in which military juntas actual held elections in "6 months" or "5 years" or whatever artificial timetable they erected to buy time, I will happily answer your question. :P

Burma's junta, the Temporary State Law & Order Restoration Council, has been promising elections "next year" for the last 20 years. They've been "temporarily" running the government since 1988.


Good point, but there is a chance that they'll switch over because it's very dangerous for the military to stay in command with such a fired up mob backed by such a well-organized Muslim Brotherhood. I'm not confident in the belief that the Egyptian military would be willing enough to commit to a Tiananmen Square incident AND also be able to survive the aftershock.

Either way, let's say that democracy does overcome such forces. The Ciasad op would've been all for nothing.

Given significant factors like the Muslim Brotherhood, how can they really think that their chances are good enough to maintain a cap like this on Egypt?
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Re: Egypt free?

Post by saxitoxin »

EGYPT CALENDAR: DAY 5 OF THE MILITARY DICTATORSHIP

State Department VZCZCXYZ0002 (September 2008) - Classification///SECRET: "These officers refer to Tantawi as “Mubarak’s poodle.” "
http://www.wikileaks.ch/cable/2008/09/08CAIRO2091.html

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Oldest of Friends ... current Supreme Ruler-for-Life of Egypt Field Marshal Tantawi and former U.S. SecDef Perry, beach barbecue - 1999

aage wrote:
saxitoxin wrote:
aage wrote:
Mr_Adams wrote:ya, that was a peaceful revolution by most standards. the American revolution killed thousands. (just for a historic perspective.

I don't know anything about American history, so I might as well ask: did they throw out a dictator too?


If you throw out one dictator (Mubarak) and replace him with a new dictator (Tatawi), did you really throw out a dictator?

If a tree falls in the forest and no one ...

Yes, you really actually did throw out a dictator. You did a bad job at it, though.

But then again, does that answer the question? Are you suggesting America is still a dictatorship?
:p


I'm not only suggesting it, I'm stating it unambiguously: the U.S. is a dictatorship.

Good point, but there is a chance that they'll switch over because it's very dangerous for the military to stay in command with such a fired up mob


No mob can maintain steam for six months; they're driven by the passion of the moment. The artificiality of the "6 month date" was not accidental; it gives the Junta time to ensure a cooling-down / normalization period and the redeployment and restructuring of the state security apparatus.

Hillary Clinton - when everyone was cheering the new dictatorship a few days ago - was being the great civil libertarian and calling on them to end the 40 year-old State of Emergency. Yesterday, with the made-for-TV revolution over and Americans and Europeans now skipping to the next item in the endless news feed being pumped into their brains by CNN (the Grammys), she quietly retracted that statement and said the U.S. will defer to the best judgment of the Egyptian "government" who can end martial law whenever they feel appropriate.
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Re: Egypt free?

Post by BigBallinStalin »

saxitoxin wrote:If the military junta actually does hold elections (6months from now?),

If you can cite a few examples from the last 100 years in which military juntas actual held elections in "6 months" or "5 years" or whatever artificial timetable they erected to buy time, I will happily answer your question. :P


Turkey--namely Ataturk.

He stepped in (with military support, if I recall correctly), ran as president until 1938, and then relinquished control to free elections (with more than one party) which occurred around 1945.. but still! There were free elections.

I know that occasionally (every 10-15 years) the military would step in under different generals to "correct" Turkey, but there's yet to be one since 1997.

Now, Turkey does rule under this guise of democracy, but even so, the country has been getting economically more free and better for most people (except for the Kurds, of course).
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Re: Egypt free?

Post by BigBallinStalin »

saxitoxin wrote:No mob can maintain steam for six months; they're driven by the passion of the moment. The artificiality of the "6 month date" was not accidental; it gives the Junta time to ensure a cooling-down / normalization period and the redeployment and restructuring of the state security apparatus.


Now it's a gamble on another gamble, with the Muslim Brotherhood still patiently waiting underneath. Even under all this turmoil, the MB are capable of funneling guns from Gaza, through the Sinai (with the help of the Bedouins), and back into Cairo. What makes you think the Ciasad would take all of these risks over this extended time frame?
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Re: Egypt free?

Post by saxitoxin »

BigBallinStalin wrote:What makes you think the Ciasad would take all of these risks over this extended time frame?


What makes you think they would take the risks of having a terminally ill Mubarak hand-over power to his son after he dies in 2013 after having received multiple warnings that the younger Mubarak's presidency would lead to insurrection and civil war?

I dunno about you but I don't fold every Full House, Straight and Three-of-a-Kind I get just because I'm waiting for a Royal Flush. (then again, I'm as good at poker as I am at Conquer Club :( )

BigBallinStalin wrote:
saxitoxin wrote:If the military junta actually does hold elections (6months from now?),

If you can cite a few examples from the last 100 years in which military juntas actual held elections in "6 months" or "5 years" or whatever artificial timetable they erected to buy time, I will happily answer your question. :P


Turkey--namely Ataturk.

He stepped in (with military support, if I recall correctly), ran as president until 1938, and then relinquished control to free elections (with more than one party) which occurred around 1945.. but still! There were free elections.

I know that occasionally (every 10-15 years) the military would step in under different generals to "correct" Turkey, but there's yet to be one since 1997.

Now, Turkey does rule under this guise of democracy, but even so, the country has been getting economically more free and better for most people (except for the Kurds, of course).


Same situation as with Thailand ... umpteen military coups. If a civil government is only allowed to make decisions A, B and C, but decisions, D-through-Z are off-limits under penalty of military coup, then there is no civil government. There is a military dictatorship de facto. The fact that the generals aren't erecting statues to themselves or bedding-down in the presidential palace doesn't change that reality.

I am unaware of a single recent example where a military junta permanently and voluntarily handed-over control to a civil government, despite promising to do so. That said, I have no doubt if one looked hard enough one might be able to find some tiny backwater somewhere where that was the case. For each of those examples, though, there are ten in which power is consolidated, maintained, and promises of elections broken.
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Re: Egypt free?

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LOL, another "coincidence" in good timing reported this AM by Reuters ...

    Rumors swirled about Hosni Mubarak's health. Saudi-owned Asharq al-Awsat newspaper said it was deteriorating and the deposed president had refused to go abroad for treatment. A military source said Mubarak, 82, believed to be in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, was "breathing." Another Egyptian source with links to the family said he was not well.


Imagine, another 2-3 months without "protests" and Hosni Mubarak would be dead, Gamal Mubarak would be president and then real, legitimate (not stage-managed) chaos would have broken out (at least according to the U.S.' own 2008 predictions, which I linked previously). Funny how all these pieces are falling into place in the exact way that minimizes damage for the U.S. during the inevitable transition out of Hosni's presidency. What incredible luck the U.S. always seems to enjoy in managing the client states ...

Thank you protesters, for waiting 30 years to engage in civil unrest, then - by sheer coincidence - starting a couple weeks before Mubarak drops dead.
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Re: Egypt free?

Post by BigBallinStalin »

saxitoxin wrote:LOL, another "coincidence" in good timing reported this AM by Reuters ...

    Rumors swirled about Hosni Mubarak's health. Saudi-owned Asharq al-Awsat newspaper said it was deteriorating and the deposed president had refused to go abroad for treatment. A military source said Mubarak, 82, believed to be in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, was "breathing." Another Egyptian source with links to the family said he was not well.


Imagine, another 2-3 months without "protests" and Hosni Mubarak would be dead, Gamal Mubarak would be president and then real, legitimate (not stage-managed) chaos would have broken out (at least according to the U.S.' own 2008 predictions, which I linked previously). Funny how all these pieces are falling into place in the exact way that minimizes damage for the U.S. during the inevitable transition out of Hosni's presidency. What incredible luck the U.S. always seems to enjoy in managing the client states ...

Thank you protesters, for waiting 30 years to engage in civil unrest, then - by sheer coincidence - starting a couple weeks before Mubarak drops dead.


Good call, but I was never aware that his son would cause civil unrest that couldn't be fixed..

what makes you think such a thing would occur under the power transition and/or from the son's future policies?
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Re: Egypt free?

Post by saxitoxin »

BigBallinStalin wrote:
saxitoxin wrote:LOL, another "coincidence" in good timing reported this AM by Reuters ...

    Rumors swirled about Hosni Mubarak's health. Saudi-owned Asharq al-Awsat newspaper said it was deteriorating and the deposed president had refused to go abroad for treatment. A military source said Mubarak, 82, believed to be in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, was "breathing." Another Egyptian source with links to the family said he was not well.


Imagine, another 2-3 months without "protests" and Hosni Mubarak would be dead, Gamal Mubarak would be president and then real, legitimate (not stage-managed) chaos would have broken out (at least according to the U.S.' own 2008 predictions, which I linked previously). Funny how all these pieces are falling into place in the exact way that minimizes damage for the U.S. during the inevitable transition out of Hosni's presidency. What incredible luck the U.S. always seems to enjoy in managing the client states ...

Thank you protesters, for waiting 30 years to engage in civil unrest, then - by sheer coincidence - starting a couple weeks before Mubarak drops dead.


Good call, but I was never aware that his son would cause civil unrest that couldn't be fixed..

what makes you think such a thing would occur under the power transition and/or from the son's future policies?


I don't have the wherewithal to know one way or the other. I'm just going by what the U.S., itself, said in my link a page or two ago.
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Re: Egypt free?

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saxitoxin wrote:LOL, another "coincidence" in good timing reported this AM by Reuters ...

    Rumors swirled about Hosni Mubarak's health. Saudi-owned Asharq al-Awsat newspaper said it was deteriorating and the deposed president had refused to go abroad for treatment. A military source said Mubarak, 82, believed to be in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, was "breathing." Another Egyptian source with links to the family said he was not well.


Imagine, another 2-3 months without "protests" and Hosni Mubarak would be dead, Gamal Mubarak would be president and then real, legitimate (not stage-managed) chaos would have broken out (at least according to the U.S.' own 2008 predictions, which I linked previously). Funny how all these pieces are falling into place in the exact way that minimizes damage for the U.S. during the inevitable transition out of Hosni's presidency. What incredible luck the U.S. always seems to enjoy in managing the client states ...

Thank you protesters, for waiting 30 years to engage in civil unrest, then - by sheer coincidence - starting a couple weeks before Mubarak drops dead.

I think if I shared your belief in determinism and worldwide conspiracies I would find it difficult to have any kind of positive, optimistic view of anything....however I do share some of your cynicism about Egypt. Yes, it's great and worth celebrating when a dictator is ousted through mainly pacifistic popular demonstrations; but when the dictator is replaced by a military party which suspends the constitution, tells the civilians to go home, and seems to have no clear plan for how allow more freedom, I tend to have my doubts if any positive change has occurred.
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Re: Egypt free?

Post by Phatscotty »

Not to mention nobody is organized over there. Nobody except for.....the Muslim Brotherhood.
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Re: Egypt free?

Post by Ray Rider »

Phatscotty wrote:Not to mention nobody is organized over there. Nobody except for.....the Muslim Brotherhood.

Speaking of the Muslim Brotherhood,here is part of their plan for North America (from page 21, the first 14 pages are Arabic but the English translation continues after that):

Understanding the Role of the Muslim Brotherhood in North America

The process of settlement is a "Civilization-Jihadist Process" and all the word means. The
Ikhwan [Arabic for brothers] must understand that their work in America is a kind of grand Jihad to eliminate and destroy the Western civilization from within, and sabotage its miserable house by their hands and the hands of the believers, so that it is eliminated, and God's religion is made victorious over all other religions.

Without this level of understanding, we are not up to the challenge and have not yet prepared ourselves for Jihad. It is a Muslim's destiny to perform Jihad and work wherever he is and wherever he lands until the final hour comes, and there is no escape from that destiny except for those who choose to slack. But, would the slackers and the Mujahedeen be equal.
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