Conquer Club

[bigimg]http://i794.photobucket.com/albums/yy221/elfish_lad/dice10000.jpg[/bigimg]

Damn, you got to 10000 fast, I have updated the 2nd post for bigger numbers now.

Next milestone for you would be 20000 dice.

Any chance you could post your distribution also please?

I think forget about the green streaks for dice and just post the others like Bruce has done above.

Thanks

(Distribution needs the latest version of the script)

[bigimg]http://i794.photobucket.com/albums/yy221/elfish_lad/Dist10000.jpg[/bigimg]

Cheers.

Yeah. I've had the last few days off and playing a ton of 1v1 speeders.

Elf Edit: trying again lol

elfish_lad wrote:
Cheers.

Yeah. I've had the last few days off and playing a ton of 1v1 speeders.

Let's see your distribution, then, please, that would be interesting , like Bruce has done:

[bigimg]http://musiciansheadquarters.com/ccdice1.jpg[/bigimg]

Thanks!

Good work at hitting a milestone! Here's to more to come!


--Andy

[bigimg]http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v90/TooShortForMost/dicestreak.jpg[/bigimg]

This confirms my thoughts that my crap dice streaks are the worst of anybody I know.

Mmmm...data...data...


--Andy

Actually, I need some clarification. Does "Most Consecutive Troops Lost" mean failed attacking troops or conquered defending troops?

Master Fenrir wrote:Actually, I need some clarification. Does "Most Consecutive Troops Lost" mean failed attacking troops or conquered defending troops?

Most Consecutive Troops defeated = conquered defending troops.
Most Consecutive Troops Lost = failed attacking troops.

Note that a tie counts for both (1 troop lost each).

chipv wrote:

Master Fenrir wrote:Actually, I need some clarification. Does "Most Consecutive Troops Lost" mean failed attacking troops or conquered defending troops?

Most Consecutive Troops defeated = conquered defending troops.
Most Consecutive Troops Lost = failed attacking troops.

Note that a tie counts for both (1 troop lost each).

Ok, that's was thinking, but the more I read it, the more ambiguous it sounded. Thanks, Chip.

Here is my data for 30,000+ dice (it took forever to load, so you better enjoy it)

overall, it looks like I have fair dice, so I should stop complaining

Steeeeeaky.

Number of Rolls : 4791

Longest Streaks:
R : 6
Y : 5
B : 12

Longest Streaks:

3v2 █ : 6 3v2 █ : 4 3v1 █ : 10 3v1 █ : 6 3v2 █ : 5 2v1 █ : 1 1v1 █ : 2 2v1 █ : 2 1v1 █ : 2 2v2 █ : 2 2v2 █ : 3 2v2 █ : 1 1v2 █ : 1 1v2 █ : 1

Most Consecutive Troops Defeated: 26
Most Consecutive Troops Lost: 21

How is all this turning out?


--Andy

I am not sure if this has been done or if it is already the intention, but with all of this data being stored now. It would probably be a good idea for someone to take a look at it from a statistician point of view and show that these streaks aren't unrealistic and in fact are very closely related to what actual dice should show.

I get tired of everyone first complaining that the dice aren't "random" then once there is enough data to show that they are in fact random, they then start complaining that they are too streaky one way or the other. It would be nice to put it all to rest and finally tell all of the stupid people out there that "random" doesn't not mean there are no streaks and that nothing uncommon has happened.

No matter the amount of data, most likely intensity cube woes will persist. However, projects like this still have their place, and the more and more of these projects the better I still say.


--Andy

People would still complain even if this site used a true random number generator.

I just NOW took 4 terts, In a single round, all defended by 1's. (I only lost 5)

jefjef wrote:I just NOW took 4 terts, In a single round, all defended by 1's. (I only lost 5)

Pfft... that is nothing. I actually won a game today.

Beat that.

Back on target... you still want any of this info chip?

E.

[Elf Edit: Cool. My 500th post! ~sheds a tear~]

Yeah, how is this data collection going, Chipv?


--Andy

Any Dice

Longest single streak of attacking dice - 8 Masli
Longest single streak of defending dice - 5 amazzony,elfish_lad,bruceswar
Longest streak of winning rolls - 16 Masli
Longest streak of losing rolls - 9 elfish_lad
Most consecutive troops defeated - 31 Masli
Most consecutive troops lost - 22 Master Fenrir

I just rolled my first turn in a game of ConquerMan, and lost 9 times in a row, for a total of 18 men. How does that compare? I just installed Dice Streaks so I'm sure I don't have a record of it... I didn't win a single time. Is this statistically possible? Is this a bug? All rolls were 15v3 etc....never 3v3 or something stupid like that....

[bigimg]http://img245.imageshack.us/img245/1400/diceoutcomes.png[/bigimg]

Number of Dice : 49679


Longest Streaks: 1: 6 2: 6 3: 6 4: 6 5: 5 6: 7

Number of Attack Dice : 31936


Longest Streaks: * 1: 6 * 2: 5 * 3: 6 * 4: 6 * 5: 6 * 6: 7

Number of Defence Dice : 17743


Longest Streaks: * 1: 5 * 2: 5 * 3: 6 * 4: 4 * 5: 5 * 6: 4

Number of Rolls : 11618


Longest Streaks: █ : 9 █ : 7 █ : 12

Longest Streaks: 3v1 █ : 11 3v2 █ : 6 3v1 █ : 7 3v2 █ : 6 3v2 █ : 9 2v2 █ : 2 1v1 █ : 3 2v2 █ : 6
1v2 █ : 2 2v2 █ : 2 2v1 █ : 1 1v1 █ : 2 2v1 █ : 2 1v2 █ : 2

Most Consecutive Troops Defeated: 27


Most Consecutive Troops Lost: 31

fifty thousand rolls, more than anyone would consider healthy to phisically roll by oneself

the probability to win a 3x1 is double the chance to lose yet the streak is only 1.5 times longer.

to double-win a 3x2 have a little more chance than to double-lose yet the loss streak is much bigger (1.5 times)

my perception is that this is caused because of the streaks associated with the tie rule. Tie rule favors defence, if there is an unnatural streakness in the dice, ties happen more often, even if the overall results pass the "random" test. as I say, if you have 60 rolls of 1 die, and find that you got 10 of each value, it may look "right" but if those 10 of each came in bundles (10 ones in a row, then 10 twos, then 10 threes, etc) it would be a disaster for a so-called "random" system.

yet another 5 3x1 loss in a row, and note that those other two 3-loss streaks were also 3x1 rolls.