I still think it's too close to call and I genuinely think Harris can win. And I'm fine with that since the Senate is a lock.
However, I think I would rather be in Trump's shoes tonight because I'm mildly bullish on Arizona and Georgia for the below reasons. If that happens, he has 8 different paths to victory: PA + NC, PA + MI, NC + MI, PA + WI, NC + WI, MI + WI, PA + NV, NC+NV+NE2+House Tiebreaker. Meanwhile, Kamala would have 5 paths to victory, two of which involve 4 states.
Arizona - Harris hasn't won a poll in Arizona since September, it's like 20 straight polls for Trump with an aggregate +2.8. And, GOP postal ballots are currently swamping Democratic.
Georgia - Right now RCP's polling average in Georgia is Trump +1.3. However, I've adjusted it as follows:
1. Remove every poll that is not a 538 Top 25 poll,
2. Remove AtlasIntel (it's Top 25 but has been consistently Trump this cycle and has too short of a track record to determine if it's a fluke)
3. Use Tukey's Fences to remove outliers (none at p=0.5)
Even after these adjustments it's still Trump +1.2.
Good analysis, Saxi. THANKS.
I watched the news on 11/4 and just a quick "here are the scenarios to win" for each candidate in the Seven Swing States had my head spinning. It will be interesting and I will be watching. However, I do not expect we will know within the next 24-36 hours.
Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 2:04 am
by ConfederateSS
------ It's 2am ish .... TRUMP rally still going on.... Golden Age coming...FIRE KAMALA...He talked about The Assassination Attempt.... Could of ended all this....I guess, he talked about his and Melania 1st day in The Whitehouse....The Lincoln Bedroom....Wow this is awesome...He talked about Lincoln, because he was also shot in the head....
-------- How China isn't building a massive auto plant in Mexico, because of him.... Saving, Detroit, Michigan Auto Industry....
---------- He did his last rally in Grand Rapids in, 2016 A.D.,2020 A.D., He is superstitious, even know he was 1 and 1....this time 2024 A.D. ending in Grand Rapids...Tie breaker... ...2am ...He is ending on today, election day...VOTE TRUMP ... ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)...
Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 2:11 am
by saxitoxin
Way too optimistic analysis by the Autistic-in-Chief ...
Elon Musk wrote:Below are the R minus D early vote deltas in swing states before tomorrow.
Republican turnout on election day is usually much higher than Democrat, so any state currently leaning R in early voting is very likely to side with Trump.
Pennsylvania, while still leaning D, has a massive turnout on Election Day. If the same number vote in person for Trump this time vs last, he will win by ~500k votes (landslide).
He's assuming the Republicans haven't just converted their Election Day voters into early voters, which is an extremely bold assumption and not one with which I agree.
However, it might also be true that Democrats just don't turn out on Election Day at all because they're not enthusiastic about Kamala. In King County, WA -- which is the most Democratic major county in the U.S. and has been all postal balloting since 2004 -- only 58% of ballots had been returned by EOD today while, in 2020, 77% of ballots had been returned by the day before election. [https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/data-research/election-data-and-maps/ballot-return-statistics]
Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:09 am
by HitRed
Election Day. There are two camps. Choose.
Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 10:02 am
by Pack Rat
Trump and his love for YMCA!
C'mon young man and dance!
Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 10:56 am
by pmac666
Pack Rat wrote:Trump and his love for YMCA!
C'mon young man and dance!
That was the gayest campaign ever.
One guy with more make up than any drag queen i ever saw dancing the "wanking a giraffe" dance to YMCA on a daily basis and the other with heavy eyeliner and a love for "Emily in Paris" and who wants to win the "normal" gay vote.
Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 11:49 am
by Pack Rat
I think the pro-trump posters here are obviously hiding secrets in their closets.
Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 11:51 am
by jusplay4fun
Why are the pee-pee twins, pee-rat and pee-mac, so fascinated by gay men? And this is about elections for President, not sexual preferences.
SAD twins.
Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 12:11 pm
by pmac666
The long lost 7th member of the village people.
Young man, there's no need to feel down, I said
Young man, pick yourself off the ground, I said
Young man, 'cause you're in a new town
There's no need to be unhappy
Young man, there's a place you can go, I said
Young man, when you're short on your dough you can
Stay there and I'm sure you will find
Many ways to have a good time
Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 12:27 pm
by pmac666
Trump is now big mad at FOX for playing an Oprah clip.
Atleast hes consistent and goes down as the whiny titty baby he always was.
Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 1:16 pm
by riskllama
I'm actually dekeing out of work today to monitor this dumpster fire. pretty underwhelming, thus far...
Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 1:31 pm
by pmac666
riskllama wrote:I'm actually dekeing out of work today to monitor this dumpster fire. pretty underwhelming, thus far...
I think they know they are losing big time.
No need for their bullshitting anymore.
Will be interesting tomorrow when the election was stolen again and Anita appears again. lol
Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 2:18 pm
by Pack Rat
jusplay4fun wrote:Why are the pee-pee twins, pee-rat and pee-mac, so fascinated by gay men? And this is about elections for President, not sexual preferences.
SAD twins.
Who is simulating a BJ?
Who is playing a theme song for MAGA?
Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 2:31 pm
by KoolBak
riskllama wrote:I'm actually dekeing out of work today to monitor this dumpster fire. pretty underwhelming, thus far...
You taught me a new verb. I love learning cool new words...thanks RL!
Originally a shortened version of "decoy"...
" deceptive movement or feint that induces an opponent to move out of position....."
Can one DEKE out of work? Or should it be "duck".....
Hmmmmmm .....
Gonna hafta look into this ....
Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 2:38 pm
by riskllama
in Canada, one can most certainly deke out of work, KB...
Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 3:46 pm
by KoolBak
Sweet....stealing
Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 4:35 pm
by mookiemcgee
Deke is one of the first words Canadian learn, usually just after learning how to skate and right before learning to walk.
Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 5:13 pm
by riskllama
mook wins this thread.
Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 5:18 pm
by Votanic
riskllama wrote:mook wins this thread.
llamsagna is hardly the one to judge. Now 'deke' off, ...and stay deked.
Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 6:06 pm
by mookiemcgee
whatever thortoth, crawl back in your hole
Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 6:16 pm
by saxitoxin
FIRST EXIT POLLING RELEASED
NBC News has released a preview question of their first exit poll.
Do you have a favorable opinion of Trump?
Non-Hispanic Whites: 49% (down from 57% in 2020)
Hispanics, Any Race: 42% (up from 38% in 2020)
Blacks: 14% (up from 10% in 2020)
UPDATE: MOO DENG ENDORSES TRUMP
UPDATE FROM THE COLONIES
- Republicans have captured a majority in the Guam Territorial Legislature
- A Republican has been elected Delegate to the United States from the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands
- Unclear what's happening in American Samoa -- they haven't updated their election page since 2014 [https://aselectionoffice.gov/node/12]. But all 21 seats of the lower house of the legislature are up for election (the upper house is hereditary).
Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:37 pm
by mookiemcgee
Well, after the critical last minute Moo Deng endorsement I'm ready to make my prediction:
Trump wins the EC, Senate 52-48 Republicans, House to republicans by a modest margin. Tough pill to swallow, but I'm excited for cryptocurrency to return for another huge bull cycle!
*edit* I'll take a stab at naming states... NC,GA,AZ,NV and PA go to Trump, Kamala holds on to MI,WI. Main change from earlier in the year predicitions are PA and NV going Trump.
Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:57 pm
by saxitoxin
Decision Desk HQ has just upped the chance of a Trump victory to 63%72%. Optimistic but still way too close to call, in my opinion! Still many routes for a Harris victory.
updated
Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 7:59 pm
by saxitoxin
mookiemcgee wrote:Tough pill to swallow, but I'm excited for cryptocurrency to return for another huge bull cycle!
IF Trump is re-elected, will Ross Ulbricht have his sentence commuted on "day 1" like he promised?!?!?!
Re: The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly Harris vs. Trump
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 8:19 pm
by mookiemcgee
saxitoxin wrote:
mookiemcgee wrote:Tough pill to swallow, but I'm excited for cryptocurrency to return for another huge bull cycle!
IF Trump is re-elected, will Ross Ulbricht have his sentence commuted on "day 1" like he promised?!?!?!
...2am ...He is ending on today, election day...VOTE 
TRUMP 
ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)... 
