Conquer Club

saxitoxin wrote:Blue States Mobilizing Troops in Advance of Election

Ahead of potential civil unrest due to Tuesday’s presidential election, the National Guard is on standby as a precaution in several states, including Washington state and Oregon, where hundreds of ballots were damaged or destroyed after at least three ballot drop boxes were recently set on fire, officials say.

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee addressed the ballot box fires in a news release Friday announcing the National Guard being placed on standby, saying, “The southwest region of Washington state has already experienced specific instances of election-related unrest.”

Inslee did not disclose how many troops would be activated on Tuesday, but said they will be available to support law enforcement from Monday to Thursday, according to the news release.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/02/us/washi ... index.html

Never mind the 'unrest', there you go everybody, ...actual election fraud, ...and by the boxful!!!

All forms of early and electronic voting need to stop. The incidents we know about are just the tip of the iceberg.
All voters need to gather on one day and be physically present. It's the only way a democracy can really be held accountable.

We also need to fully eradicate the Electoral College. as long as that huge anti-democratic caveat exists, the U.S. is not really a democratic nation.

Does this mean a new Constitution, ...and maybe a new flag to go with it?
Quite possibly. Big changes are coming.

This evening, NBC was compelled to integrate the below video greeting from Donald Trump into the Sunday evening NASCAR Xfinity 500. This didn't appear as an ad, but was integrated directly into the race programming due to NBC's violation of equal time laws by having the evil Kamala Harris on Saturday Night Live for a short guest appearance last night.

saxitoxin wrote:This evening, NBC was compelled to integrate the below video greeting from Donald Trump into the Sunday evening NASCAR Xfinity 500. This didn't appear as an ad, but was integrated directly into the race programming due to NBC's violation of equal time laws by having the evil Kamala Harris on Saturday Night Live for a short guest appearance last night.

That NBC even has such a politically-biased comedy show as SNL with no equivalent show for conservative comedy is just another example of what really destroys any semblance of equal time or justice.
The 'mainstream' media wants to label Trump a threat to democracy in the U.S., but if they dare glance in the mirror they'll see the biggest threat staring right back at them.

Im dissapointed, where is the devastating republican october surprise?
They couldnt even make up the traditional election caravan.
Boring.

https://polymarket.com/elections

Polymarket November Suprise

NOVEMBER SURPRISE!



Trump now says he's the Father of Fertility...someone should tell him BJs are a form of birth control.

Korean student attends Trump rally and Harris rally; discovers firsthand that Democrats just made-up everything they've said about MAGA to gin-up their low-information base --

saxitoxin wrote:Korean student attends Trump rally and Harris rally; discovers firsthand that Democrats just made-up everything they've said about MAGA to gin-up their low-information base --

Leave it to the Russian troll to find a foreigner to agree with him, lol.

Pack Rat wrote:

saxitoxin wrote:Korean student attends Trump rally and Harris rally; discovers firsthand that Democrats just made-up everything they've said about MAGA to gin-up their low-information base --

Leave it to the Russian troll to find a foreigner to agree with him, lol.

Leave it to the Austrian/Arizonian two-headed troll-bot to say something utterly hypocritical.

Coming from a guy who pretends to be philosophical, lol.

Pack Rat wrote:Coming from a guy who pretends to be philosophical, lol.

Yeah, it came from me, OT Forums' resident Philosopher/Poet Laureate, ...and your point is what?

Exclusively appears in Mar-a-lago from tomorrow til Jan 5.
Dont miss it

pmac666 wrote:Exclusively appears in Mar-a-lago from tomorrow til Jan 5.
Dont miss it

...and why exactly is an obese Taylor Swift going to be hanging out at Mar-a-Lago?

Im just realising that im watching the last Trump rally ever. They wont be missed.
The fat, orange Elvis farewell tour.

Ballot return stats from The Hill (current as of EOD today)

PENNSYLVANIA
REP: 97.47% of 2020 vote total returned
DEM: 59.04% of 2020 vote total returned

ARIZONA
REP: 104.39% of 2020 vote total returned
DEM: 82.09% of 2020 vote total returned

NEVADA
REP: 91.33% of 2020 vote total returned
DEM: 72.94% of 2020 vote total returned

NORTH CAROLINA
REP: 100.88% of 2020 vote total returned
DEM: 83.19% of 2020 vote total returned

Meanwhile, Sabato is predicting a Democratic win in the House but by only 1 seat, 218-217. He's predicting a solid Republican capture of the Senate.

• - If Trump is elected president he will be able to pass no legislation, but can appoint all the judges he wants.
  - If Harris is elected president she won't be able to pass any legislation, and may not be able to appoint any judges. Unclear what she'll be doing other than ribbon cuttings and attending state funerals, to be honest.

Joe Rogan backs Trump.

Kamala has started building THE WALL.

She's just putting it around her house ...

-------- TRUMP doesn't read of a script, like Every Kamala event, same thing...
-------- In one rally, TRUMP had Roberto Clemente's son come up...
-------- Today his kids coming up(not Baron, he is home)....These are the last rallies of 9 years...
-------- In one rally today, he tells of a story....Van Jones, now on CNN...He was hoping for something to pass, he actually went to TRUMP crying,no really crying,tears and all,I hope this passes...Later TRUMP called some people, got it to pass, Van Jones was giving a speech somewhere on T.V...Happy it passed... TRUMP is home watching with Melania....Van Jones is saying and thanking a bunch of people... Melania asks TRUMP, is he going to Mention you???... TRUMP said,"I don't know......So they listen....Van Jones never thanked President TRUMP... Always, something knew at TRUMP rallies...... ConfederateSS.out!(The Blue and Silver Rebellion)... ...His last,ever rally will be tonight, 10:30/11pm in Grand Rapids, Michigan...I was thinking, maybe have one every 5/6 months...Kind of like FDR had fire side chats...But , thanks to 2 Assassination Attempts...That would never happen, especially a sitting U.S. President...

Nothing will change unless the Democrats are punished. The victims of the Democrats understand better than anyone.

UPDATE - LAST MINUTE ENDORSEMENTS:

1. The Libertarian Party of New Hampshire has just withdrawn its endorsement of the Libertarian candidate and is now endorsing Donald Trump.

2. UFC Welterweight Champion Kamarudeen Usman has endorsed Trump

3. Mike Tyson has endorsed Trump

4. The only grandchild of the late Jim Brown, the greatest football player in history, today endorsed Trump.

Thanks Elon!

Final Nate Silver Forecast

• Harris: 50.0% chance
  Trump: 49.9% chance
  Tie: 0.1% chance

Takes real balls to take a carve out a clear stance like that Nate Silver!

saxitoxin wrote:Final Nate Silver Forecast

• Harris: 50.0% chance
  Trump: 49.9% chance
  Tie: 0.1% chance

Saxi, do you want to predict? Who wins?

I will not predict; I have been saying all along that this one is TOO CLOSE to call. The above is more validation of that "prediction."

I had said months ago that this may come down to a small number of voters who are un-informed and who care very little for Politics. A simple insult by Trump, often repeated and often quoted on Social Media, may have lost the election for Trump.

I think Trump did not do enough to expand his voter base. He threw out too much negativity, or, at the least, the liberal leaning Traditional Media kept putting Trump in the worst light with such negative sound bites. The news today is mostly sound bites and sound bites with video. And Kamala had massive money to spend on Political Ads. Even the appearance on SNL by Kamala can be enough to swing the election toward her.

I think that for the past two elections, in both 2016 and 2020, pollsters undercounted the Trump support. Now I read, in at least one place, that pollsters likely OVER-Counted Trump support.

We may not know who won until Novemer 7-8-9; we may not know until Saturday after the election today, Nov. 5. I do recall in 2016, most media outlets predicted a SURPRISING Trump win about 2 am overnight after Polls closed. I woke up the next morning thinking that Hillary was going to pull that one out in the early morning on Wed., and that did not happen.

The U. S. Senate is likely to go Republican; the House (of Reps) is also a toss-up, but I have read little on that overall result predictions for control there.

Report: the first place to vote in the USA went to a 3-3 TIE. NO Surprise; typical of the nearly even Political Divide in the USA.

And lastly, I voted back in September; VA allows early voting, up to 45 days before the election. The state of VA will likely go to Dems and incumbent Senator Dem. Tim Kaine will likely win here in VA, too. (Kaine, Hillary's VP pick in 2016, was also on SNL.)

jusplay4fun wrote:

saxitoxin wrote:Final Nate Silver Forecast

• Harris: 50.0% chance
  Trump: 49.9% chance
  Tie: 0.1% chance

Saxi, do you want to predict? Who wins?)

I still think it's too close to call and I genuinely think Harris can win. And I'm fine with that since the Senate is a lock.

However, I think I would rather be in Trump's shoes tonight because I'm mildly bullish on Arizona and Georgia for the below reasons. If that happens, he has 8 different paths to victory: PA + NC, PA + MI, NC + MI, PA + WI, NC + WI, MI + WI, PA + NV, NC+NV+NE2+House Tiebreaker. Meanwhile, Kamala would have 5 paths to victory, two of which involve 4 states.

Georgia - Right now RCP's polling average in Georgia is Trump +1.3. However, I've adjusted it as follows to give as much an advantage to Harris as possible:

• 1. Remove every poll that is not a 538 Top 25 poll,
  2. Remove AtlasIntel (it's Top 25 but has been consistently Trump this cycle)
  3. Use Tukey's Fences to remove any pro-Trump outliers (none at p=0.5) but keep any pro-Harris outliers
  
  Even after these adjustments it's still Trump +1.2.

Arizona - Harris hasn't won a poll in Arizona since September, it's like 20 straight polls for Trump with an aggregate +2.8. And, GOP postal ballots are currently swamping Democratic.