Conquer Club

Steve Hanke

Inflation is with us for at least 3 more years. Possible recession. Possible stagflation. 30 trillion in gov debt means the government won’t be able to prime the economy back to health as much.

https://usdebtclock.org/

The is nobody suggesting there is unchecked inflation on the way…no serious economist. - Joe Biden

I love this lady!

Do you want one BIG Reason for the increase in prices, i.e., INFLATION? The American Rescue Plan did NOT help lower inflation.

The Democrats only know one way to fix a problem: Throw more money at it. So money was given to families ($1400) and the bill extended unemployment benefits. So people were paid to sit at home longer, not working, not producing goods and services, and people were paid for NOTHING (except debt to be paid later, at least the interest payments). Fewer goods and services and more money means what? INFLATION.

American Rescue Plan (Biden’s $1.9 Trillion Stimulus Package)

What is the American Rescue Plan?
The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 is a $1.9 trillion coronavirus rescue package designed to facilitate the United States’ recovery from the devastating economic and health effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The nearly $2 trillion price tag makes this economic rescue legislation one of the most expensive in U.S. history. It one part of President Biden's Build Back Better plan, which also includes the American Jobs Plan and the American Families Plan.

The package includes direct stimulus payments of $1,400, extending unemployment compensation, continuing eviction and foreclosure moratoriums, and increasing the Child Tax Credit while making it fully refundable. It provides funds for state and local governments to help compensate for lost tax revenues, money for schools from kindergarten through eighth grade to safely reopen amid the pandemic, and subsidizes COVID-19 testing and vaccination programs.

Yes, payments were made at the start of the Pandemic. But we did NOT NEED MORE; inflation was going to happen. Biden and the Democrats threw gasoline on a fire to exacerbate the situation with an additional #402 Billion handout, NOT a small amount. (You can look at the data on M2 that Hit Red supplied already.)

https://www.investopedia.com/american-r ... on-5095694

see the table in the article cited above; here are a few details to support my point:
Legislation CARES Act CAA ARPA
Signed into law March 27, 2020 President Donald Trump Dec. 27, 2020 President Donald Trump March 11, 2021 President Joe Biden
Key Components
Direct payment/EIP $293 billion ($1,200) $166 billion ($600) $402 billion ($1,400)

HitRed wrote:Inflation is with us for at least 3 more years. Possible recession. Possible stagflation. 30 trillion in gov debt means the government won’t be able to prime the economy back to health as much.

https://usdebtclock.org/

The is nobody suggesting there is unchecked inflation on the way…no serious economist. - Joe Biden

Again, Democrats like Biden only know one economic tool: Spend more money and raise the national debt.

jusplay4fun wrote:

HitRed wrote:Inflation is with us for at least 3 more years. Possible recession. Possible stagflation. 30 trillion in gov debt means the government won’t be able to prime the economy back to health as much.

https://usdebtclock.org/

The is nobody suggesting there is unchecked inflation on the way…no serious economist. - Joe Biden

Again, Democrats like Biden only know one economic tool: Spend more money and raise the national debt.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answer ... ficits.asp

Donald Trump is one of three presidents with the biggest budget deficits in history.
The deficit topped $1 trillion in 2020.
By 2022, under Joe Biden's administration, the deficit has declined to some $900 billion.
The U.S. government has run a budget deficit for nearly all of the past 60 years.

Under pressure from Republicans in Congress, President Bill Clinton, a Democrat, agreed to consistently cut the deficit and eventually oversaw the first budget surplus in decades.
The surplus stood at $236 billion in 2000, Clinton's final year in office. The $128 billion surplus recorded in 2001 was the last time a surplus had been seen this century.

When he took office in 2001, President George W. Bush cited the Clinton surplus as evidence that taxes were too high. He pushed through significant tax cuts and oversaw an increase in spending, and the combination again drove the U.S. budget into the red.
The deficit reached a record $458 billion in 2008, Bush's last year in office, and would triple the following year as the Bush and Obama administrations faced the Global Financial Crisis.

The U.S. budget deficit exploded in fiscal year 2009, ultimately reaching $1.4 trillion under President George Bush and the incoming Obama administrations struggled to contain the economic fallout from the financial crisis. Most of that deficit was created on Bush's watch, but Obama and the Democratic-controlled Congress added hundreds of billions of dollars to it in early 2009.
The deficit would remain above $1 trillion through the 2012 fiscal year but would be slashed to as low as $440 billion in the later years of Obama's presidency

President Trump continued the trend of pushing the deficit higher as he sought massive tax cuts and increased defense spending. His first budget, for the 2018 fiscal year, recorded a deficit of $779 billion.
Under Trump, the deficit reached $984 billion in 2019 and hit more than $1 trillion in 2020, and that was before Congress passed a $2 trillion stimulus package to fight the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.

One of Joe Biden's campaign promises was to reduce the federal deficit, and there's been progress on the account. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the federal budget deficit was $475 billion in the first five months of fiscal year 2022, which represented an amount lower than those for the years 2021 and 2020.

It's the same thing over and over. Republicans talk about being fiscally conservative, and gullible fools believe them. Meanwhile they spew trillions into foreign adventures that only benefit their bum-buddies in the military-industrial complex. Democrats try to reign in the spending for the most part, but also do try to give a little more to the people that need it, for which they get an unearned reputation as big spenders.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2 ... e-deficit/

"(President Ronald) Reagan took the deficit from 70 billion to 175 billion." This is more or less accurate. The federal deficit went from about $78.9 billion at the beginning of Reagan’s presidency to $152.6 billion at the end of it. At points between 1983 and 1986, the deficit was actually more than $175 billion.

"(George H.W.) Bush 41 took it to 300 billion." Close, but not exactly. The number was around $255 billion at the end of Bush’s term. The deficit spiked at around $290.3 billion the year before he left office.

"(Bill) Clinton got it to zero." This is true. During his presidency, Clinton managed to zero out the deficit and end his term with a $128.2 billion surplus.

"(George W.) Bush 43 took it from 0 to 1.2 trillion." This is in the ballpark. Ignoring the fact that he actually started his presidency with a surplus, Bush left office in 2009 with a federal deficit of roughly $1.41 trillion.

"(Barack) Obama halved it to 600 billion." This is essentially accurate. Obama left the presidency with a deficit of approximately $584.6 billion, which is more than halving $1.41 trillion. The deficit was even lower in 2015 at around $441.9 billion.

I have already posted some of this: the budget surplus under Clinton were due to

1) actions by his predecessor, and those tax increases NEGOTIATED by Pres. George H. W. Bush, cost him re-election (among other factors, of course).

2) A sense that good fiscal policy was important.

ALSO:

3) President George W. Bush ran in 2000 as a fiscal conservative. The events of 9/11 caused a major shift of his and the nation's perspective. To fight the "war" against terrorism led to significant budget deficits. Going into Iraq, that some, like me, have long argued is WRONG was a huge mistake. My brother and I discussed, debated, and argued this point Yesterday. He contends that Bush gave into Hawks in the Military (and VP Cheney, too). I would suspect that Rumsfeld argue for the invasion of Iraq, too. Only Colin Powell, the man closet to the military at the time, argued (in private, Leadership circles) against the war. Powell was convinced by (what I still consider as FLIMSY) evidence of weapons of mass destruction (i.e., chemical weapons). None were found when US forces went into Iraq and toppled Saddam. Bush 2nd's (or W's) mistake was a big reason, imo, for a massive failure in foreign policy and bad fiscal policy.

4) Ever since Clinton, all presidents allowed US Budget Debt to BALLOON, each one worse than the one before. Biden's debt is "low" because he has been in office just over one year. Wait two years and see where the debt is then. Rising interest rates do not help US Debt and causes even bigger deficits.

5) Democrats only want to cut funds for the military. For the rest of the budget, they call less ADDITIONS to the many programs as a "CUT" another example of their poor and incorrect messaging and, for some, bad reasoning.

Reagan and the Congress might have been bankrupting the USSR through the arms race. Europeans and Americans might have thought that was a greater good.

Always an excuse.

I get it. Spending trillions on blowing shit up is redneck chic; spending money to help struggling poor people is icky and uncool.

Dukasaur wrote:
I get it. Spending trillions on blowing shit up is redneck chic; spending money to help struggling poor people is icky and uncool.

President Barack Obama approved military aid for Ukraine:

Trained Ukrainian troops since April 2015 as part of JMTG-U (Joint Multinational Training Group-Ukraine) [463]
$5 million of non-lethal military equipment on 4 June 2014.[464][465][466]
$75 million of non-lethal military equipment on 11 March 2015.[467][468][469]

President Donald Trump approved military aid for Ukraine:

$560 million on 12 May 2017 via the 2017 Consolidated Appropriations Act.[470]
$350 million on 12 December 2017 via the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act.[471]
Light weapons export license approved on 13 December 2017.[472]
$47 million of lethal weapons, including 210 Javelin anti-tank missiles, on 1 March 2018.[473]
$250 million of security aid, including $50 million in lethal weapons,[474] on 12 September 2019.[475][476][477]
$250 million of lethal military equipment on 11 June 2020.[478][479]
$600 million of security aid, including 16 Mark VI patrol boats, on 17 June 2020.[480][481]

President Joe Biden approved military aid for Ukraine:

90 tons[clarification needed] of lethal military equipment on 22 January 2021.[482][483]
$125 million of lethal military equipment on 1 March 2021.[484][485]
$150 million of lethal military equipment on 11 June 2021.[486][487]
$60 million of lethal military equipment on 1 September 2021.[488][489][490]
$350 million of lethal military equipment, on 25 February 2022.[491][492][493]
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken assured Ukraine's foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba of unspecified further military aid, on 1 March 2022.[494][495]
$200 million of arms and equipment, including Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, on 12 March 2022.[496]
The White House said that before 16 March 2022, aid sent by the US included:[497]
600 Stinger systems
About 2,600 Javelin missiles
Five Mil Mi-17 helicopters
Three patrol boats
Four counter-artillery and counter-unmanned aerial system tracking radars
Four counter-mortar radar systems
200 grenade launchers and ammunition
200 shotguns
200 machine guns
Nearly 40 million rounds of small arms ammunition
Over 1 million grenade, mortar and artillery rounds
70 Humvees and other vehicles
Unspecified amounts of secure communications, electronic warfare detection systems, body armor, helmets and other tactical gear, military medical equipment, explosive ordnance disposal and demining equipment
Satellite imagery and analysis capability.
$800 million in military equipment announced on 16 March 2022, funded from the $13.6 billion in aid signed on 15 March. The package includes:[498]
2,000 Javelin anti-tank missiles
1,000 light anti-armor weapons
6,000 AT4 anti-armor systems
800 Stinger anti-aircraft systems
100 Switchblade drones[499]
100 grenade launchers
5,000 rifles
1,000 pistols
400 machine guns
400 shotguns
Over 20 million rounds of small arms ammunition, grenade launcher rounds and mortar rounds
25,000 sets of body armor
25,000 helmets
Laser-Guided Rockets
$800 million of lethal military equipment, on 13 April 2022:[500][501]
18 M777 howitzers calibre 155 mm and 40,000 rounds of artillery ammunition
11 Mi-17 military helicopters[502]
200 armoured personnel carriers
'counter-artillery radars'.[503][504]
$800m military package was announced 21 April completing the drawdown from the $13.6bn military and humanitarian funding envelope approved by Congress 15 March[505]
72 M777 155 mm towed howitzer with 144,000 rounds of ammunition[505]
72 artillery towing vehicles
121 Phoenix Ghost tactical drones, a reduced capability alternative to the Switchblade quickly designed for export to Ukraine.[506]
6 May another military package was announced worth $150 million:[507]

25,000 155mm artillery shells
Counter artillery radars
Jamming equipment
Spare parts[508]
19 May 2022, the Department of Defense (DoD) announces the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown of security assistance valued at up to an additional $100 million:[509]

18 155mm Howitzers;
18 Tactical Vehicles to tow 155mm Howitzers;
3 AN/TPQ-36 counter-artillery radars; and
Field equipment and spare parts.
1 June 2022 another military package was announced worth $700 million High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and ammunition;

Four HIMARS and ammunition
Five counter-artillery radars
Two air surveillance radars
1,000 Javelin missiles and 50 Command Launch Units
6,000 anti-armour weapons
15,000 155 millimeter artillery rounds,
Four Mi-17 helicopters
15 tactical vehicles
Spare parts and equipment [510][511]
15 June 2022 the twelfth military package was announced worth $1 billion;

18 155mm M777 howitzer howitzers
18 tactical vehicles for towing howitzers
36,000 155mm artillery shells
Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems
Four tactical recovery vehicles
spare parts and other equipment
Two Harpoon coastal defence launchers without ammunition
thousands of military radios
thousands of night vision equipment and optics
Funding for training, maintenance, sustainment, transportation, and administrative costs [512]
5 May the California National Guard had announced it had donated 4,320 ballistic vests, 1,580 helmets and facilitated the delivery of 7 medical field stations to Ukraine.[513]

23 May the Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs provided 21 armoured SUVs to the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine and Ukrainian police.[514]

Additional vehicles donated on 2 June:

25 Mitsubishi L200 pick up trucks
35 Renault Duster SUVs
16 4x4 personal carriers
13 cargo trucks[515]

jusplay4fun wrote:Do you want one BIG Reason for the increase in prices, i.e., INFLATION? The American Rescue Plan did NOT help lower inflation.

Was that the intent of the American Rescue Plan?

No.

OK… so what was your point again?

Blaming inflation on one sole “cause”… or even “mostly” on one sole cause… is idiotic.

It’s like blaming your dumb ass ‘Captain Obvious’ posts on a failure of the Public Education System…. but in reality they are the result of many causes over a lifetime of experience.

jimboston wrote:

jusplay4fun wrote:Do you want one BIG Reason for the increase in prices, i.e., INFLATION? The American Rescue Plan did NOT help lower inflation.

Was that the intent of the American Rescue Plan?

No.

OK… so what was your point again?

Blaming inflation on one sole“cause” … or even “mostly” on one sole cause… is idiotic.

It’s like blaming your dumb ass ‘Captain Obvious’ posts on a failure of the Public Education System…. but in reality they are the result of many causes over a lifetime of experience.

You TOTALLY misread my post, Jimmy Boy. Please re-read before posting such a DUMMM comment again.

And do you know why that was NOT THE INTENT? Stooopid Liberal Dems., apparently many of them who live in "Taxachusetts" do not really grasp or comprehend basic Economics.

And I guess you forgot or did not my MANY posts in this thread. Let me paste JUST ONE here for your benefit, Jimmy Boy:

Re: Why inflation may be worse than you think it is
Post by jusplay4fun on Sun Dec 05, 2021 5:03 am

I have said already:
1) (and perhaps twice in this thread) that the President gets too much credit and too much blame for economic successes and failures.

2) The Economy is very complex.

3) The monetary policies is what "The Fed" (The Federal Reserve) controls; it controls the money supply.

4) The fiscal policies (spending at the Federal level) is controlled by Congress and the President.

5) What any ONE person thinks is not as important as the collective opinion is for those who watch the polls and for the pols (Politicians) use to make key decisions. And the most important poll is the one each election cycle. And at this TIME, President Biden (rightly or wrongly) gets blamed for inflation.

CPI in the USA 8.52% year over year
CPI in Germany today 33.6% year over year

HitRed wrote:CPI in the USA 5.63% year over year
CPI in Germany today 33.6% year over year

and your point? so what?

Inflation by Country 2022
Top 10 Countries with the Highest Inflation Rates (Trading Economics Jan 2022)
Venezuela — 1198.0%
Sudan — 340.0%
Lebanon — 201.0%
Syria — 139.0%
Suriname — 63.3%
Zimbabwe — 60.7%
Argentina — 51.2%
Turkey — 36.1%

and more, for the FUN of it:
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents ... n%20Union.

Germany is the heart of manufacturing in Europe. The GDP has ben revised from 3.5 down to 1.5.

HitRed wrote:Germany is the heart of manufacturing in Europe. The GDP has ben revised from 3.5 down to 1.5.

Also:

HitRed wrote:
CPI in the USA 5.63% year over year
CPI in Germany today 33.6% year over year

Are you confusing CPI and GDP? You failed to connect those two stats.

CPI is Consumer Price Index (inflation rate); GDP is Gross Domestic Product, RIGHT?

Correct, two different things.

jusplay4fun wrote:

jimboston wrote:

jusplay4fun wrote:Do you want one BIG Reason for the increase in prices, i.e., INFLATION? The American Rescue Plan did NOT help lower inflation.

Was that the intent of the American Rescue Plan?

No.

OK… so what was your point again?

Blaming inflation on one sole“cause” … or even “mostly” on one sole cause… is idiotic.

It’s like blaming your dumb ass ‘Captain Obvious’ posts on a failure of the Public Education System…. but in reality they are the result of many causes over a lifetime of experience.

You TOTALLY misread my post, Jimmy Boy. Please re-read before posting such a DUMMM comment again.

And do you know why that was NOT THE INTENT? Stooopid Liberal Dems., apparently many of them who live in "Taxachusetts" do not really grasp or comprehend basic Economics.

And I guess you forgot or did not my MANY posts in this thread. Let me paste JUST ONE here for your benefit, Jimmy Boy:

Re: Why inflation may be worse than you think it is
Post by jusplay4fun on Sun Dec 05, 2021 5:03 am

I have said already:
1) (and perhaps twice in this thread) that the President gets too much credit and too much blame for economic successes and failures.

2) The Economy is very complex.

3) The monetary policies is what "The Fed" (The Federal Reserve) controls; it controls the money supply.

4) The fiscal policies (spending at the Federal level) is controlled by Congress and the President.

5) What any ONE person thinks is not as important as the collective opinion is for those who watch the polls and for the pols (Politicians) use to make key decisions. And the most important poll is the one each election cycle. And at this TIME, President Biden (rightly or wrongly) gets blamed for inflation.

You totally misread my joke… because you’re not only Capt. Obvious you’re also Capt. Literal.

Also… no, I can’t be bothered to read all your posts. Thanks anyway.

jimboston wrote:

jusplay4fun wrote:

jimboston wrote:

jusplay4fun wrote:Do you want one BIG Reason for the increase in prices, i.e., INFLATION? The American Rescue Plan did NOT help lower inflation.

Was that the intent of the American Rescue Plan?

No.

OK… so what was your point again?

Blaming inflation on one sole“cause” … or even “mostly” on one sole cause… is idiotic.

It’s like blaming your dumb ass ‘Captain Obvious’ posts on a failure of the Public Education System…. but in reality they are the result of many causes over a lifetime of experience.

You TOTALLY misread my post, Jimmy Boy. Please re-read before posting such a DUMMM comment again.

And do you know why that was NOT THE INTENT? Stooopid Liberal Dems., apparently many of them who live in "Taxachusetts" do not really grasp or comprehend basic Economics.

And I guess you forgot or did not my MANY posts in this thread. Let me paste JUST ONE here for your benefit, Jimmy Boy:

Re: Why inflation may be worse than you think it is
Post by jusplay4fun on Sun Dec 05, 2021 5:03 am

I have said already:
1) (and perhaps twice in this thread) that the President gets too much credit and too much blame for economic successes and failures.

2) The Economy is very complex.

3) The monetary policies is what "The Fed" (The Federal Reserve) controls; it controls the money supply.

4) The fiscal policies (spending at the Federal level) is controlled by Congress and the President.

5) What any ONE person thinks is not as important as the collective opinion is for those who watch the polls and for the pols (Politicians) use to make key decisions. And the most important poll is the one each election cycle. And at this TIME, President Biden (rightly or wrongly) gets blamed for inflation.

You totally misread my joke… because you’re not only Capt. Obvious you’re also Capt. Literal.

Also… no, I can’t be bothered to read all your posts. Thanks anyway.

and here is what others say about you, Jimmy-B:

You take things to literally Jimmy B

https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewt ... 8&t=238118

I gave you a chance. Gym-Boi; I will put you on my FOE list. I see no point in any further discussion of your very limited, shallow, hackneyed, insulting, denigrating, and trivial ideas. AND your jokes are NOT even FUNNY.

BTW: I am LT, not Captain; that should be obvious.

jusplay4fun wrote:
and here is what others say about you, Jimmy-B:

You take things to literally Jimmy B

https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewt ... 8&t=238118

So now you are quoting ConfederateSS and using his words to prove your position or to prove some flaw in mine?

When you quote little-Hitler to prove your point it’s as good as an admission of failure.

Please quote someone with a brain.

jusplay4fun wrote:
I gave you a chance. Gym-Boi; I will put you on my FOE list. I see no point in any further discussion of your very limited, shallow, hackneyed, insulting, denigrating, and trivial ideas. AND your jokes are NOT even FUNNY.

Please feel free to FOE me… it’s your right.

I disagree that my comments are “limited, shallow, hackneyed” or “trivial”. I admit they are definitely “insulting” and “denigrating”.

I believe it’s impossible for you to NOT reply…. so prove me wrong and FOE me.

jusplay4fun wrote:
BTW: I am LT, not Captain; that should be obvious.

Why?

jimboston wrote:

jusplay4fun wrote:
and here is what others say about you, Jimmy-B:

You take things to literally Jimmy B

https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewt ... 8&t=238118

So now you are quoting ConfederateSS and using his words to prove your position or to prove some flaw in mine?

When you quote little-Hitler to prove your point it’s as good as an admission of failure.

Please quote someone with a brain.

jusplay4fun wrote:
I gave you a chance. Gym-Boi; I will put you on my FOE list. I see no point in any further discussion of your very limited, shallow, hackneyed, insulting, denigrating, and trivial ideas. AND your jokes are NOT even FUNNY.

Please feel free to FOE me… it’s your right.

I disagree that my comments are “limited, shallow, hackneyed” or “trivial”. I admit they are definitely “insulting” and “denigrating”.

I believe it’s impossible for you to NOT reply…. so prove me wrong and FOE me.

jusplay4fun wrote:
BTW: I am LT, not Captain; that should be obvious.

Why?

I proved you wrong, and FOED you, Jimmi-Boi.

And you are insulting and denigrating, too. Just look at your avatar: do you grab your crotch to emulate Michael Jackson, or to insult the world, OR BOTH?

jusplay4fun wrote:
I proved you wrong,

You did? I’m what way have you proved me wrong?

This should be interesting…

jusplay4fun wrote:
and FOED you, Jimmi-Boi.

If you “FOED” me why did you read my post and reply?

jusplay4fun wrote:
And you are insulting and denigrating, too. Just look at your avatar: do you grab your crotch to emulate Michael Jackson, or to insult the world, OR BOTH?

I admitted I was insulting and denigrating. Do you have any reading comprehension skills at all?

I never grab any crotch. I chose an Avatar Image of Stewie Griffin grabbing his crotch not to emulate Michael Jackson, nor to insult the world… I chose it to insult ducking dumb people who are easily offended in this forum.

I admitted I was insulting and denigrating. Do you have any reading comprehension skills at all?

I understand, comprehend well-written and coherent ideas and I quoted you.

You are incoherent and insulting and denigrating. We agree. PERIOD.

Tell me, O wise one (?), what did I not comprehend? And did I misquote you?

I never grab any crotch. I chose an Avatar Image of Stewie Griffin grabbing his crotch not to emulate Michael Jackson, nor to insult the world… I chose it to insult ducking dumb people who are easily offended in this forum.

I was referring to your avatar. PERIOD.

I said:

Just look at your avatar: do you grab your crotch to emulate Michael Jackson, or to insult the world, OR BOTH?

I referred to your AVATAR. NOW it can be asked of YOU, O wise one,

Do you have any reading comprehension skills at all?

I have never met or seen you face-to-face, JimBoston. I do not know what you look like, nor I have I seen a photo or video of you. So HOW could you interpret my comment as ME asking YOU if you grab your crotch. I was referring to your AVATAR, O wise one. Who is the one easily offended? O wise one. Again, who has the reading comprehension problem, O wise one.

Why do I bother to reply to DUMMM people like you? O wise one??????????