Conquer Club

Ragian wrote:If one disregards the fact that in every game, everyone has the same chance of securing a scum role, in order to follow your reasoning, wouldn't it make more sense, given that aage has been scum twice, that he wasn't scum this time round?

No. Your reasoning is the textbook definition of the Gambler's Fallacy.

Mine might be the Reverse Position, or it could be that aage is just preternaturally scummy. My sample size is too small to draw any definite conclusions, so I'll have to go with my gut for now.

Ragian wrote:

degaston wrote:

LSU Tiger Josh wrote:On day 1 there isn't that much to go on. I know in my games I intentionally made it where those that tried to "play" the mod would have a hard time since I would give the scum a fair cover they could use or it could be a unique setup like I did with the Civil War where no one knew what was going on With that said, it is a lot better to reread when there is not too much cannon fodder in there about just speculation of the game setup instead of trying to read what is actually happening.

But what is actually happening? Nobody's dead (except poor Ga7 - God rest his soul), and no one knows anything except their individual roles and scummates. We can and will do baseless votes, but there's not much to be learned from a re-read of day 1 if it's just random votes flying back and forth. I'm not saying I want 3 pages of speculation about the setup, but while any player could have any role, there are practical limits as to what would work in a game, and I don't think it hurts to discuss it.

That said, vote aage because he was scum in both games I played with him.

If one disregards the fact that in every game, everyone has the same chance of securing a scum role, in order to follow your reasoning, wouldn't it make more sense, given that aage has been scum twice, that he wasn't scum this time round?

Both of these reasonings make equally little sense... And if Deg wants to vote me with shitty logic that's fine by me. Shitty logic tends to be unconvincing.

aage wrote:Both of these reasonings make equally little sense... And if Deg wants to vote me with shitty logic that's fine by me. Shitty logic tends to be unconvincing.

Shitty logic's all I've got right now. Just trying to talk about something - we need a bit more activity from some people so that there's something to talk about on day 2.

Speaking of which... Hey strike! Has DDS been prodded?

No. Your reasoning is the textbook definition of the Gambler's Fallacy.

Mine might be the Reverse Position, or it could be that aage is just preternaturally scummy. My sample size is too small to draw any definite conclusions, so I'll have to go with my gut for now.

Hahaha you beat me to it on both counts, well done. That being said, FOS Deg for hyper-rationality

Immortalis XS wrote:

No. Your reasoning is the textbook definition of the Gambler's Fallacy.

Mine might be the Reverse Position, or it could be that aage is just preternaturally scummy. My sample size is too small to draw any definite conclusions, so I'll have to go with my gut for now.

Hahaha you beat me to it on both counts, well done. That being said, FOS Deg for hyper-rationality

Well sure, if you actually do work all day instead of keeping up with the thread, you're going to miss some opportunities.

Of course, there's not really very much to keep up with at this point... Zzzzzzzz.

Did everyone disregard my if?

Vote Count
Skoffin (1)-LSU
Aage (2)-Ragian, Degaston
Dakky (1)-Aage
Raglan
LSU
Degaston
IXS
DDS
DGZ

with 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Was traveling unexpectedly last two days but settled in now. DDS has not read his role PM so I am seeking a replacement.

Deadline is end of the day Monday. Will probably extend if I can find a replacement.

Ragian wrote:Did everyone disregard my if?

What "if"?

The important one where I said "if I would agree to your reasoning" (meaning I do not)... It's lame pulling me up on logic when that's not even what I'm saying.

Luckily, it's not important for the game. It's just annoying.

DDS is a big sack of crap.

unvote vote skoffin

Monday is the day. Let's at least get her to talk.

Deadline already :/

Ragian wrote:The important one where I said "if I would agree to your reasoning" (meaning I do not)... It's lame pulling me up on logic when that's not even what I'm saying.

Luckily, it's not important for the game. It's just annoying.

DDS is a big sack of crap.

unvote vote skoffin

Monday is the day. Let's at least get her to talk.

You're talking about this post?

Ragian wrote:If one disregards the fact that in every game, everyone has the same chance of securing a scum role, in order to follow your reasoning, wouldn't it make more sense, given that aage has been scum twice, that he wasn't scum this time round?

How was that important?
And I did respond to your post to explain why it would actually make slightly less sense to expect that he has a better than average chance of not being scum.
And if you didn't agree with my "logic", why did you leave your vote on aage until just now?

In any case, I'm not sure what other kind of response you were expecting. I thought it was obvious that my reasoning was garbage, but unless someone says something stupidly incriminating soon (which is unlikely since nobody's saying very much), there's not going to be any real reasoning today.

I don't know what's normal when someone never shows up to the thread. If we can't get a replacement for DDS, I assume he'll be modkilled, but do we use that in place of a lynch, or do we still try to lynch someone else?

degaston wrote:I don't know what's normal when someone never shows up to the thread. If we can't get a replacement for DDS, I assume he'll be modkilled, but do we use that in place of a lynch, or do we still try to lynch someone else?

It's always better for town to stay on uneven number of players.

so him modkilled and mafia kill would bring us from 9/9 --> 7/9

degaston wrote:

Ragian wrote:The important one where I said "if I would agree to your reasoning" (meaning I do not)... It's lame pulling me up on logic when that's not even what I'm saying.

Luckily, it's not important for the game. It's just annoying.

DDS is a big sack of crap.

unvote vote skoffin

Monday is the day. Let's at least get her to talk.

You're talking about this post?

Ragian wrote:If one disregards the fact that in every game, everyone has the same chance of securing a scum role, in order to follow your reasoning, wouldn't it make more sense, given that aage has been scum twice, that he wasn't scum this time round?

How was that important?

degaston wrote:And if you didn't agree with my "logic", why did you leave your vote on aage until just now?

Ragian wrote:vote aage for having an old Danish man name.

You mean this obvious joke vote? You think there's a devious plan behind it and why I hadn't voted for anyone else here five minutes into the game when no one has done or said anything remotely scummy? Hopefully, your vote on aage was a joke vote too.

degaston wrote:In any case, I'm not sure what other kind of response you were expecting. I thought it was obvious that my reasoning was garbage, but unless someone says something stupidly incriminating soon (which is unlikely since nobody's saying very much), there's not going to be any real reasoning today.

That's the whole point of my response, mate. I start out by saying that if I were to follow your (in your own words) garbage logic, then I would reply as I did.

I'm usually in favour of a lynch playing the long game. We shouldn't lynch, modkill, and have scum murder someone. That'll prolly leave us dangerously near LYLO. Given the swarm of power roles (albeit with drawbacks), we could no lynch and cross our fingers.

unvote

She's not showing up anyway...

So...I think no lynch is the way to go if DDS doesn't show up. Or you could lynch me for suggesting a no lynch.

Ragian playing more defensive than usually?

dgz345 wrote:Ragian playing more defensive than usually?

Agree with that statement. Though, everyone else is playing defensively as well. Probably because of drawbacks of the roles. But without talk we can't play .. DDS needs to be replaced ASAP and people should post more.

I'll say I have a feeling that dgz is scum this time for posting a lot (does it every game) and not saying anything (does it every game as well) but this time he attacked Ragian and that is kinda change of his town meta.

Ragian wrote:

degaston wrote:You're talking about this post?

Ragian wrote:If one disregards the fact that in every game, everyone has the same chance of securing a scum role, in order to follow your reasoning, wouldn't it make more sense, given that aage has been scum twice, that he wasn't scum this time round?

How was that important?

fair enough that you did qualify it up front; i just missed that. but yeesh, why so upset?

dakky21 wrote:Though, everyone else is playing defensively as well. Probably because of drawbacks of the roles. But without talk we can't play .. DDS needs to be replaced ASAP and people should post more.

yeah def need some kinda substance, haven't seen much yet...but also not sure how to start the discussion other than to ask if anyone is possibly willing to give any kind of small info about their role. anyone have anything useful they can say about their role without immediately giving up all info, so as not to paint a target on your back for mafia?

Immortalis XS wrote:

dakky21 wrote:Though, everyone else is playing defensively as well. Probably because of drawbacks of the roles. But without talk we can't play .. DDS needs to be replaced ASAP and people should post more.

yeah def need some kinda substance, haven't seen much yet...but also not sure how to start the discussion other than to ask if anyone is possibly willing to give any kind of small info about their role. anyone have anything useful they can say about their role without immediately giving up all info, so as not to paint a target on your back for mafia?

You are new here, but that made me a star. I always claim first and I always get lynched first. This time trying to change it, but without other input we will stall and I will eventually claim just to push things forward...

Immortalis XS wrote:

Ragian wrote:

degaston wrote:You're talking about this post?

Ragian wrote:If one disregards the fact that in every game, everyone has the same chance of securing a scum role, in order to follow your reasoning, wouldn't it make more sense, given that aage has been scum twice, that he wasn't scum this time round?

How was that important?

fair enough that you did qualify it up front; i just missed that. but yeesh, why so upset?

Well, just to be argumentative, and to beat this dead horse to a bloody pile of putrid debris, my original statement was:

That said, vote aage because he was scum in both games I played with him.

Which, for the sake of a joke vote, implies that I think there's some sort of bias which causes aage to always be scum in the games we're both in. So obviously, I'm already "disregarding the fact that in every game, everyone has the same chance of securing a scum role". (Though I submit that this game is being played on "Conquer Club", where bias and unequal chances are kind of its trademark, so we may be assuming facts not in evidence.)

But even if one disregards the fact of equal chances, it would still be the exact opposite of "following my reasoning" to say that there was some cosmic force trying to balance the number of times someone is town vs scum. That proposition, as I already stated, is the gambler's fallacy, which automatically assumes that the chances are not equal, so the "if" part of Ragian's statement was redundant anyway, and it reads exactly the same without it.

And Ragian, I still don't understand why you're beating your head on the wall over the word "important". If you were using it sarcastically at some point, I didn't pick up on it, and you might want to tag it or be more explicit.

dakky21 wrote:I'll say I have a feeling that dgz is scum this time for posting a lot (does it every game) and not saying anything (does it every game as well) but this time he attacked Ragian and that is kinda change of his town meta.

im just going to respond this with a "what?"

you saying that i play like i do every game therefor I'm scum?

dgz did I vote you? No. Just saying your meta is slightly different than other games, just as you noticed Ragian is a bit off as well. I think it's because of screwed roles...

dakky21 wrote:dgz did I vote you? No. Just saying your meta is slightly different than other games, just as you noticed Ragian is a bit off as well. I think it's because of screwed roles...

I know you didn't vote me. I just thought your FOS had a weird "proof" (can't find the word right now)

There was no sarcasm... You just ignored my if. It seems that you still do. I love it how this is all my bad that you don't get what I'm saying

Everyone wanting substance are free to add substance to the chat. So far, the only thing I've seen is dakky calling out dgz for attacking me, saying it's off his town meta. Dgz then ignores that saying that dakky says that he plays like he usually does.

If the deadline is today, we won't get a lynch anyway, so f*ck it.

Ragian you got a fun role?