Conquer Club

Hey FD, I may of missed this somewhere, but maybe not.

Just curious, how did you handle the TOFU vs. KoRT match from last year as far as scoring goes in the calculations?

I really don't care all too much about how it was handled and am not wanting this to turn into an argument with anyone else reading this. I am okay with however it was done, I only ask out of curiosity of knowing how that may or may not of affected the 1 and 2 spots of the rankings.

Chuuuuck wrote:Hey FD, I may of missed this somewhere, but maybe not.

Just curious, how did you handle the TOFU vs. KoRT match from last year as far as scoring goes in the calculations?

I really don't care all too much about how it was handled and am not wanting this to turn into an argument with anyone else reading this. I am okay with however it was done, I only ask out of curiosity of knowing how that may or may not of affected the 1 and 2 spots of the rankings.

I would assume how it was handled in the clan results list, ie 32-28 win to tofu

Dako wrote:If clan A has 150 weight and clan B has 200 and the face each other in a war - who will most likely win?

The total weight of a clan (sum of all weights of their challenges) is just a function of how many recent challenges they have fought, and as it does not factor in the quality of the opponents or the outcome, I do not use it to predict whether a clan will win or lose.

The way I measure accuracy is by how often a higher-rated clan did not lose to a lower-rated clan. I only keep track for wars where both clans have at least 3 other wars under their belts, and for which the war consists of at least 18 games. You can see the accuracy figures in the OP. For the June results, I think a 50-point lead corresponds to about a 2/3 chance for higher-ranked clan to win.

Leehar wrote:

Chuuuuck wrote:Hey FD, I may of missed this somewhere, but maybe not.

Just curious, how did you handle the TOFU vs. KoRT match from last year as far as scoring goes in the calculations?

I really don't care all too much about how it was handled and am not wanting this to turn into an argument with anyone else reading this. I am okay with however it was done, I only ask out of curiosity of knowing how that may or may not of affected the 1 and 2 spots of the rankings.

I would assume how it was handled in the clan results list, ie 32-28 win to tofu

TOFU KoRT 32 28 12/19/10

Yup, win to TOFU. In cases like this, I think it makes sense for this system to use whatever the official results are. Even if the official results differ from the actual results of the individual games, if one clan benefits from breaking the rules, the actual win/loss record could then be unfairly biased in their favor.

Thanks FD. You have fed my curiosity.

July Update

Jigger1986 has sent me an update for all wars concluding in June. I've ran my script and updated the OP with the new results. I didn't feel like updating the ratings basis or accuracy tables at this time - will do so next update, as I think there will be more upheaval then as well.

Btw, I am still using the same formula as last month. I am considering experimenting with weighting peer-to-peer challenges more than lopsided challenges, but this will wait until I have more free time.

Big Eight

I notice that, based on this data, there is a top 8 cluster of clans that have over 1200 points - in order, TOFU, KoRT, THOTA, EMP, AOC, IA, TSM, LOW. Their scores cluster together (dropoff after 8th place) as well as their best recent performance - these Big Eight are pretty much the only clans that have been able to beat another Big Eight clan within the past year.

The exact details of this top cluster will change after certain wars finish, but it will be interesting to see how the results cluster after the next update.

Data

Feel free to check out the data file I'm using and please point out any error if you find one.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1luEvDTpI-Hz3dMWTBmLpchvolmzBu1UBxcXm6QdVkec/edit?hl=en_US

I am not sure that "beat xx in 2010" should count league results. Yes, 11 games confrontation is a very small war, but I think it should not be counted as best showing.

FarangDemon wrote:I notice that, based on this data, there is a top 8 cluster of clans that have over 1200 points - in order, TOFU, KoRT, THOTA, EMP, AOC, IA, TSM, LOW. Their scores cluster together (dropoff after 8th place) as well as their best recent performance - these Big Eight are pretty much the only clans that have been able to beat another Big Eight clan within the past year.

Just out of curiosity - so FOED versus IA doesn't count as a win against Top 8? And it's not our best showing "ranking" wise?

Dako wrote:I am not sure that "beat xx in 2010" should count league results. Yes, 11 games confrontation is a very small war, but I think it should not be counted as best showing.

I definitely agree with you - I could set some kind of minimum games requirement for this. What do you think, 41 games?

Commander9 wrote:Just out of curiosity - so FOED versus IA doesn't count as a win against Top 8? And it's not our best showing "ranking" wise?

Sorry Commander9, the data jigger1986 sent me did not include the FOED vs IA war. I read the thread now and see that, according to Master Fenrir it has been officially over for 1 week at 29-12, though the topic does not say concluded. Maybe it didn't make it to the forum that he checks for clan war results.

Thanks for pointing this out. Unfortunately we don't have a clan war results archive, so we are going to continue to make errors like this until one is provided.

CC could add the capability to tag Clan War games upon their creation as being "Clan war KoRT vs AOC CC2 Quarterfinals" so that CC could automatically tabulate the results and post the results of completed wars to a Clan War Result Database. That would save everybody involved tons of time and produce more accurate reports in a more timely fashion. Has anyone suggested something like this before? Would CC be interested in using its development capabilities for the Clan Community? Maybe CC is already doing the same thing for tournaments?? Same idea could be applied to both.

In the meantime, anybody, feel free to look at our data file and let me know if any other wars are missing or if we have incorrect results.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1luE ... t?hl=en_US

I want to wait several days for any other possible discrepancies to be pointed out before going through the trouble of redoing everything.

I wouldn't blame anyone for not wanting to include that one.

TOFU vs BFM was also missed. Or maybe not depending on when you put together the info.

Bruceswar wrote:TOFU vs BFM was also missed. Or maybe not depending on when you put together the info.

Was it over before July 1? If so please tell me score.

Ok I see over June 30 at 22-19 (TOFU). So I'll add it along with the FOED - IA war.


I will redo the rankings soon...
The squeaky wheels get the grease, people, so if we left out a war that ended in June, start squeaking or forever hold your peace for this update.

A simple check would be to see if you inputted all the Newcomers and Conqueror Cup ties that have completed.

I'm curious however on how you came up with the Best score in the last year if that one isn't actually better than the rating you get after a match?

40 games or more for the best showing I think.

Leehar wrote:A simple check would be to see if you inputted all the Newcomers and Conqueror Cup ties that have completed.

I prefer not to check threads myself, that's why I delayed putting out an update until June when I found a volunteer to help me - jigger1986 helps me by checking the threads and tabulating the results every month. I contribute in my way, he contributes in his. If there are wars we have missed, I ask the clan community to contribute by pointing them out to us. If you want to contribute you could check the threads and compare them to the data file, see if anything is missing - that would be awesome.

But perhaps the best way the clan community could contribute toward the goal of obtaining accurate clan war results would be to push for the creation of a Clan War Results Database. Then nobody has to waste the time checking all the forums and tabulating results, no mistakes or omissions would be made, and members of the clan community would not have to waste their time posting about the absence of certain wars.

Leehar wrote:I'm curious however on how you came up with the Best score in the last year if that one isn't actually better than the rating you get after a match?

The score displayed in the "Best Showing in 1 Year" column is not the score of the clan itself, but that of the highest ranked opponent that the clan has beaten or tied to within the last year. It is this opponent's score at the time of the match's conclusion (before points changing hands from the match).

All in all I think Farang has done some really good work here. I also applaud his attitude when people jump into the thread with pitchforks and torches because something was missed.

Lubawski wrote:All in all I think Farang has done some really good work here. I also applaud his attitude when people jump into the thread with pitchforks and torches because something was missed.

Thanks very much, Lubawski.

I've updated the rankings in the OP to include the two omitted wars.

GR (21) vs. KOA (27) of 48 [Final]
by jigger1986 on Sun Jun 26, 2011 9:41 am

This war is now officially over. Congratulations again to KOA for the win.

Cheme moved it to completed area July 2nd, tho it ended before July 1st.

27 KOA 21 GR

Just to clear a couple things up, I noticed several posts regarding missing data.

Only wars/challenges that were finished, moved and notated by a CD on or before 06/30 have been counted.
IA vs FOED still has active games (or at the very least still needs a thread update) and TOFU vs Botm finished on 06/30, but was not notated and moved by the CDs.

These results will be given to FarangDemon for the July calculations.

By the way, I love the "greatest accomplishment" idea, but would be in favor of a game limit of 41 games.
(eventhough my low ranked clan tied a very high ranked clan in a CL3 matchup and looks nice on paper to see that)

Thanks

-jig

I meant to make it be > 39 games limit but there was a mistake in my code:



I will fix it to:

Instead of doing 2 check for TIE or WIN why don't you do one check for != LOSS? Saves some processing ;).

Lol, you missed a bracket, thats one of the most irritating things ever.

And with regards to the win/tie sentiments, could there ever be a situation where a loss could give you a higher rating then your wins? If so, then I think that could also be worth reporting...
(I'm actually surprised our 'loss' to thota didn't net us more points, since I think that was one of our best performances compared to a win over DB...)

Can you post top-5 ratings achieved during any moment? So it looks like this:

Best score:
#1 THOTA - 1375 - 2010 Oct
#2 TOFU - 1372 - 2011 Jun
#3 KORT - 1339 - 2011 Jun
...

Would be nice to see clan records there and it is not easy to calculate them.

Hey Farang, I don't think you have our most recent challenge against Nemesis in there from the Cup. Final score 30-11 win for EMPIRE.

Lub,

I can assure you that the EMP vs NEM war of June 2011 is in there, however because those two clans also had a war back in December 2009, the games,win/loss and % are likely being lumped into one large calculation. I am not the expert, FD is, but I thought I could offer a possible explanation. I do know however that 100% that war IS being calculated.