Conquer Club

Im posting, Im posting.

My personal opinion is that there would not be as many killing roles as ga7 has fantasised; LSU can be aggressive when at L-2 and that UTAlan or vodean are scum being as how they jumped on a 3 vote wagon. That being said, unvote vote vodean however, despite his logic I am suspicious of him.

Ill go back to lurking now

unvote for now. and im geussing theres only a mafia and mabey a cult

ga7 wrote:I'm saying I'd rather start day 2 with 3 dead townies than 4 as it would be game over. Obviously there should be only 2 if we have a vig that is not completely crazy, and there might be only be one in which case we will know that we can just lynch without worrying about lylo coming too soon. But I think there are good chances we'll see two kills anyway. And again, it's a small game with a lot of potential killing roles, I just wish I remembered how to do odds as I'm pretty sure the chances of a cop finding scum with two nights and lessay 3 scum total far outweight the chances of that cop to be killed for instance.

Who says there is a cop at all? The setup is hidden, as far as I know this is the first game by this mod so who the hell knows how he done it? Its all nonsensical speculation that can only be justified by claiming cop and even then you could be insane/roleblocked/busdriven/killed.

ga7 wrote:The fact we had a Night 0 makes me think town needed it to even the odds. We can really use that advantage if we have more info both from potential night 1 kills and wagons (your point on this made no sense, we don't need the wagons to end in a lynch for them to be useful afterwards) and of course from the additional night actions.
The point is, small games can be lost very easily for town, we had a night 0 for some reason, and we don't know how bloody nights will be. Three reasons why we should take it easy today. On the other hand, I guess we can just cater to our bloodthirsty needs.

I'm saying that you have those wagons to look at now, why do you need to wait until tomorow to analyse unless your going to lynch? (unless the person is nk'd) Waiting is far too risky.

LSU Tiger Josh wrote:

strike wolf wrote:IF we don't vote somebody out we don't lynch anybody. No matter how we disguise it that's basically what it turns into. Your move for a no lynch makes sense on the most superficial of layers but if we cannot use the information we get by questioning people's motives in the day time we have nothing to go on at night. This game is just like any other mafia game we will get no leads unless we press people into questioning their decisions when they say something suspicious and whether we come to a lynch at the end of the day or not, we at least give any town power roles more information to go by. Sitting around and voting no lynch on the first day will get us exactly the same thing it would give us in any other game...nothing but hoping that a cop comes by and reveals crucial information. A cop can only investigate one person a night and in a game this size as small as it may be the chances of him finding scum in either of the first two nights are against him.

vote:LSU Your logic does not hold water.

Boy we got a bunch of dumbfucks that can't bother thinking outside the box. Even if the cop finds town both nights that will leave us with only 9 other people to choose from with 33% of them scum under conventional setup with 3 scum or 46% chance if there happens to be a 4th scum person. If we do a random lynch right now, most likely power role gets revealed scum gets easy hunt at night knowing that power role if the dumbfucks in the town with me don't decide to lynch said power role when all is unknown, and then be really boned tomorow by losing the claimed power role most likely or getting a second power role revealed like a bunch of jackasses since some people can't sit back and let the cop do his job and find two other people out before a random uneducated lynch. Vodean you have contributed exactly nothing to this game other than doing a no lynch because you didn't know what to do and then try to force a claim at -2 on stupid reasoning that you didn't even come up with.

Here we go again just cause people accuse you doesn't make them dumbfucks. As said above we don't know the setup you are just speculating. And lastly even if you are right your stats are useless as the less townies there are the better your stats look, i.e. if we lynch unsuccesfully today that 33% changes to 38%.

Vote Count
ga7-1 (spiesr)
wercool-1 (taco_man1)
cena-rules-2 (ga7, Army of GOD)
LSU Tiger Josh-5 (strike wolf, pmchugh, gregwolf121, UTAlan, vodean)
vodean-1 (cena-rules)

LSU Tiger Josh is at L-2.
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

quick question. will their be a deadline lynch?

wercool wrote:quick question. will their be a deadline lynch?

No deadline unless nobody posts. Good activity so far.

Pmc your arguments make no sense. We're speculating about the setup because it's freaking day 1, it's a small game and it's called motherfuckin Modern Warfare. I'd say you sound like a lyncher but I think you're just rusty.
Imagine for a moment we're playing a C9 but don't know it's a C9. We can still assume there's 1 cop and/or 1 doc, and 2 scum if the mod is mean. Which means if you're town in this kind of situation, you're careful because here's what can happen: Day 1 mislynch, 1 NK, 3 townies left for 2 scum. Day 2, mislynch, game over.
Now let's take the current game. We're 12, there's likely 3 scum. We mislynch today, two townies are NKed. We're 6 townies for 3 scum. We mislynch, two townies are NKed. Game over for town.
See the point now?

ga7 wrote:Pmc your arguments make no sense. We're speculating about the setup because it's freaking day 1, it's a small game and it's called motherfuckin Modern Warfare. I'd say you sound like a lyncher but I think you're just rusty.
Imagine for a moment we're playing a C9 but don't know it's a C9. We can still assume there's 1 cop and/or 1 doc, and 2 scum if the mod is mean. Which means if you're town in this kind of situation, you're careful because here's what can happen: Day 1 mislynch, 1 NK, 3 townies left for 2 scum. Day 2, mislynch, game over.
Now let's take the current game. We're 12, there's likely 3 scum. We mislynch today, two townies are NKed. We're 6 townies for 3 scum. We mislynch, two townies are NKed. Game over for town.
See the point now?

Nope.

Im not rusty, your just stupid ok!

Now lets look at your silly speculation. Can you point to one game in history this small where one scum group of 3 has 2 (permenant) night kills? That would be freaking intense, more likely there is two scum groups or scum + sk or something like that. But ok lets take the unlikely scenario that you magically guessed the setup (or that your scum hehe), either way we get two lynches to get it right and its not as if we are just gonna hammer without letting the person claim (and scum will probs be too scared to kill them, because of doctors and the like). I know we could lose this fairly quickly but no matter the setup we have to try and catch out scum and quickly, which means risking a lynch (or at least a bandwagon) or two.

unvote lsu- I don't actually reckon he is scum for now anyway, just totally disagree with his arguments (im sure i could find games where you two totally shot someone down for arguing no lynch) and wanted to gauge reaction.

In summary, speculation is dangerous and basing your entire strategy on what might or might not happen tonight is even more so.

About the "two lynches to get it right" you forget an important factor that makes a disaster all too possible: the lineup.
I already said it's very likely to have a mafia team + a sk. 2 mafias would be ridiculously hard IMO, but I guess it's possible. As you said it's Safari's first game so it's not like we know if he can balance properly but that's also why 3 scum sounds like a good average of what we could expect.
I certainly gunned down "let's go no lynch" before and I'm pretty sure LSU also but it all depends on the game; it's nonsensical to do it in large games and it's more of a bad one in even smaller games or when you know there won't be many power roles.
Anyway, you do have a point about this being the only strategy; it's good to have other options and even cases if possible. Problem is besides people arguing about this since LSU talked about it I've mostly seen random bandwagonners and lurkers that don't make much content. That and you cause you're SCUMMEH!

After analyzing the little that I know about this game at this point I am strongly leaning towards the idea that this game is has recruiting in it. It seems like letting the recruiter(s) get his first recruit safely was the entire point of having a night 0. In light of this possibility I don't think I can really support a no lynch at this point as the most likely recruiters are anti-town roles. Giving them more free time to recruit can't be a good thing in that case, especially when they would have the potential to subvert town power roles like cop.

While i definitely agree that my vote on LSU was somewhat scumlike, and that it was mostly unwarranted, i was going to withdraw my vote, but now we're at -3(from -2), so untill i get an actual defense, i feel like my vote is now warranted. see you tomorrow. Please, Josh, defend yourself if you want to live.

Vote Count
ga7-1 (spiesr)
wercool-1 (taco_man1)
cena-rules-2 (ga7, Army of GOD)
LSU Tiger Josh-4 (strike wolf, gregwolf121, UTAlan, vodean)
vodean-1 (cena-rules)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

unvote well at least you admitted it vodean. Ga7 and AoG, may I ask why you voted me?

spiesr wrote:After analyzing the little that I know about this game at this point I am strongly leaning towards the idea that this game is has recruiting in it. It seems like letting the recruiter(s) get his first recruit safely was the entire point of having a night 0. In light of this possibility I don't think I can really support a no lynch at this point as the most likely recruiters are anti-town roles. Giving them more free time to recruit can't be a good thing in that case, especially when they would have the potential to subvert town power roles like cop.

See what I mean guys, if he is right then no lynching could actually harm us badly.

If it were proven to be true it would also cast great suspicion on you two because a no lynch would be a great target for a cult and would explain your change of tact in games

Of course at this point that is speculation too.

cena-rules wrote:unvote well at least you admitted it vodean. Ga7 and AoG, may I ask why you voted me?

Sir, haha, it was just a joke because the beginning of these are always kinda awkward. Unvote.

Though I'm stuck...I feel like the two options are bandwagon against LSU or vote no lynch...as we have nothing to work on, and he currently hast he most votes. I agree with vodean, I want to hear a defense.

WHERE WERE YOU THE NIGHT OF THE 1ST LSU!!!

Sir.

Sir.

WHERE WERE YOU THE NIGHT OF THE 0TH LSU!!!

EBWOP, sir.

Army of GOD wrote:

cena-rules wrote:unvote well at least you admitted it vodean. Ga7 and AoG, may I ask why you voted me?

Sir, haha, it was just a joke because the beginning of these are always kinda awkward. Unvote.

Though I'm stuck...I feel like the two options are bandwagon against LSU or vote no lynch...as we have nothing to work on, and he currently hast he most votes. I agree with vodean, I want to hear a defense.

WHERE WERE YOU THE NIGHT OF THE 1ST LSU!!!

Sir.

There are plenty more options than that...

pmchugh wrote:

Army of GOD wrote:

cena-rules wrote:unvote well at least you admitted it vodean. Ga7 and AoG, may I ask why you voted me?

Sir, haha, it was just a joke because the beginning of these are always kinda awkward. Unvote.

Though I'm stuck...I feel like the two options are bandwagon against LSU or vote no lynch...as we have nothing to work on, and he currently hast he most votes. I agree with vodean, I want to hear a defense.

WHERE WERE YOU THE NIGHT OF THE 1ST LSU!!!

Sir.

There are plenty more options than that...

Like...

Lynching you for no apparent reason

Sir, hey! I have a 25 killstreak, aka nuke, so if you guys wanna go ahead and lynch me, then whatever! Just know that I could win the game for the town at ANY TIME! Sir.

Army of GOD wrote:Sir, hey! I have a 25 killstreak, aka nuke, so if you guys wanna go ahead and lynch me, then whatever! Just know that I could win the game for the town at ANY TIME! Sir.

And yet you don't? thats scummy!

Back on topic, there have been plenty of poor votes and bandwaggoners and all sorts of scummy play. It isn't LSU or no lynch, there are at least 2 scum atm so try spotting them.

Vote Count
ga7-1 (spiesr)
wercool-1 (taco_man1)
cena-rules-1 (ga7)
LSU Tiger Josh-4 (strike wolf, gregwolf121, UTAlan, vodean)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Prodding taco_man1. Any requests for prods?

I HAVE been prodded...

I haven't posted recently... I voted, see no reason to change my vote, and no reason to argue for, or against anything. We know little and that which we know is only conjecture. I would be astonished to have an accord and a lynching at this point, and am basically biding my time to see what happens.

taco_man1 wrote:I haven't posted recently... I voted, see no reason to change my vote, and no reason to argue for, or against anything. We know little and that which we know is only conjecture. I would be astonished to have an accord and a lynching at this point, and am basically biding my time to see what happens.

How do you wish for us to proceed? If everyone does nothing we will never get anywhere...

I demand to be included in this game if a replacement is needed.

I will snipe the hell out of some bitches.