Dice advantage/somebody that knows some math or something

Joe McCarthy · Post by **Joe McCarthy** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:35 pm

I've been acting under the assumption that the attacker has the advantage due to the 3/2 roll rule, but the defender getting the tie might make more difference than I thought. Does anybody here know enough math to let me know who has the advantage and how much of one it is?

reverend_kyle · Post by **reverend_kyle** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:38 pm

theres a chart on wikipedia.

Nikolai · Post by **Nikolai** » Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:41 pm

Asked and answered - several times.

http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewto ... highlight=

This example has a good breakdown.

tanar · Post by **tanar** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 12:31 am

A rule of thumb, guiding my gaming, is:-

In a massive attack with 100 against 100 until either one is down to 1,
expect to have won 16 armies (ie, remainings are 17 vs 1) in the end.

EDITED: Correction, expect remaining 15 - 1 (your advantage)
.

Ronaldinho · Post by **Ronaldinho** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 1:13 am

WHAT???? lol

Joe McCarthy · Post by **Joe McCarthy** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 1:15 am

Im starting to think everybody thinks they know the answer and nobody actually does.

Ronaldinho · Post by **Ronaldinho** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 1:16 am

well i often fake knowing things so i guess your right....

Thorhound · Post by **Thorhound** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 1:48 pm

attacking 3 dice vs 2 has a slight advantage... maby 3%. there are charts out there...

mightyal · Post by **mightyal** » Fri Jul 28, 2006 1:50 pm

http://www.dandrake.com/risk.html

tanar · Post by **tanar** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 5:38 pm

.
In an attack with 3 vs 2,
- the probability of the attacker to lose 2 armies is 0.29
- the probability of the defender to lose 2 armies is 0.37
- the probability of both to lose 1 army is 0.34

So, with 100 attacks, you can expect to remove 108 armies from your opponents, and only lose 92 armies yourself.

What it comes to the rule of thumb I wrote (above), a correction: if you both have 100 armies, you can only expect to be able to attack 92 times before your opponent is down to 1, and by that time you should have 15 armies left (ie. lost 0.92 * 92 = 85 armies).

In other words:
When near balance, and there are tens of armies to spend, always attack before the other player does.

.

Joe McCarthy · Post by **Joe McCarthy** » Sat Jul 29, 2006 5:52 pm

There's my answer, thanks.