D3 of The Reid technique Mafia Game

[Loose Canon]

unvote Hjelp

Wish I could find a friendly mafia to place a tasty treble on these predictions

1. Town will win
2. I'll be lynched today
3. A Riot

Any takers?

[hjelp]

@ Loose Canon
Please check this if I made an error somewhere.

This one includes 3P. The objective is still the same - find the last Mafia
This is the latest vote and then finally EW voted Devon99 (see below).

Case I
Assumption I: one Mafia doesn't vote for the fellow Mafia.
Assumption II: All voted on Devon99 - one of them flips 3P - the rest flip towns (including EW) according to assumption I.

Devon99 and halrob64 voted on Darin44.

Darin44 didn't vote on Devon99 so Darin44 flips Mafia.
halrob64 voted on Darin44 but Darin44 flips Mafia then halrob64 flips Town
Devon99 voted on Darin44 but Darin44 flips Mafia then Devon99 flips Town but it's false since Devon99 actually flipped Mafia.

So Darin44 can't flip Mafia, hence flips Town.

Darin44 flips Town then halrob64 flips Town or flips Mafia.
Loose Canon didn't vote on Devon99 then Loose Canon flips Mafia.

Now, halrob64 is cleared Town by Charle and EW, so halrob64 flips Town.

Last one standing will be Loose Canon flips Mafia.

Case II
Assumption I: one Mafia doesn't vote for the fellow Mafia.
Assumption II: All voted on Devon99 flip towns (including EW) according to assumption I.
Assumption III: - one of them that didn't vote on Devon99 flips 3P

Devon99 and halrob64 voted on Darin44.
Darin44 didn't vote on Devon99 so Darin44 flips Mafia or 3P.
halrob64 voted on Darin44 but Darin44 flips Mafia then halrob64 flips Town or 3P.
halrob64 voted on Darin44 but Darin44 flips 3P then halrob64 flips Mafia or Town.

Devon99 voted on Darin44 but Darin44 flips Mafia then Devon99 flips Town or 3P but it's false since Devon99 actually flipped Mafia.
Devon99 voted on Darin44 but Darin44 flips 3P then Devon99 flips Town or Mafia but Devon99 actually flipped Mafia.
So Darin44 can't flip Mafia, hence flips Town or 3P.

Darin44 flips Town then halrob64 flips Town or Mafia or 3P.
Darin44 flips 3P then halrob64 flips Town or Mafia.
Loose Canon didn't vote on Devon99 then Loose Canon flips Mafia or 3P.

Now, halrob64 is cleared Town by Charle and EW, so halrob64 flips Town.
so

Darin44 flips Town then halrob64 flips Town.
Last one standing will be Loose Canon flips Mafia or 3P.
Darin44 flips 3P then halrob64 flips Town.
Last one standing will be Loose Canon flips Mafia.

Official vote count:

Devon: (4) Charle, Hjelp, Ragian, Devante
Hjelp: (2) EW, Darin
Darin: (2) Devon, Halrob
EW: (1) Loose Canon

TIME TO DECIDE WHO GETS LYNCHED IS NOW!! JUST 4 HOURS REMAINING..

Spoiler

https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/t ... nt=cursive

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch!

[/quote]

[Loose Canon]

I'm not assuming that out of Ragian Devante and you Hjelp, there wasn't a mafia who was stuck on voting for Devon, who had at one point gambled that Devon wasn't going to be lynched.
There was the chaos of the website upgrade interfering with the deadline.
It would have been a gamble I'd have felt bound to stick to if Mafia and if one of you 3.

For my part no I didn't flip onto Devon which I do accept looks more suspicious than you 3.

[hjelp]

We don't want to miss-lynch a Town Cop if so.
So one of the voters on Devon99 can be a Mafia.
And the one I think is suspicious is Devante, I agree with you and halrob64 regarding Devante. I'm still thinking that only Town and no PR from the start and it's now D3.
@ Devante
More info please.

[hjelp]

If there is an Even Night Godfather, than that player couldn't participate in N1 Mafia-meeting ?
If so, then that player wouldn't know about Devon99 ?

What Devante stated so far of nothing else than Town until now, can be a combination with an Even Night Godfather ? or a Mafia as well?

[Loose Canon]

Yes I see the logic for an even night godfather given there was an odd night godfather.

And there could be a jailor unclaimed who prevented Charle getting a result n2.

And/or mafia or 3p could have blocked Charle, and/or protected whoever Charle tried to investigate.

There's a lot of permutations open here.

[hjelp]

EW mentioned that

I could have been roleblocked, but I am willing to take the chances that a roleblock went into one of the actual claims.

I don't see any other explanation how mechanically Charle shouldn't be town to me, but I'm happy to receive one if you see it.

[Loose Canon]

I was thinking along different lines;

Just because Charle s role mentioned a doctor - Unusually - perhaps 3p or mafia have been given fake claim of doctor, and there may not necessarily be a town doctor at all.

[SoN!c]

Official vote count:

Loose Canon: (1) Charle

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch!

[Ragian]

When scum, early doors, I'd distance myself from fellow scummates by accusing them or disagreeing with them or similar. If a scummate is going down inevitably, I'll also make sure to get in on that lynch. I think most experienced mafia players would as scum. I understand how that makes me look when randomly singling out Strike D1 and being on Devon's lynch D2. I just want to make sure that everything is out in the open.

[Ragian]

I don't think an inexperienced mafia player would, though, which is why I don't think hjelp can be our last (most likely) mafia.

[Devante]

I was thinking along different lines;

Just because Charle s role mentioned a doctor - Unusually - perhaps 3p or mafia have been given fake claim of doctor, and there may not necessarily be a town doctor at all.

What do you mean by fake doctor? Something like a quack doctor type role?

[Loose Canon]

Thought it so I'll say it AGAIN SIGH.

Charle you are not 3P cop playing an absolute blinder are you?

You poison strike d1
Doctor should protect king D1 playing dumb
You investigate EW N1 learn he visited you or tried to and what his powers are, if he visits anyone but you.
EW says you didn't kill N1
Devon claims back up cop - you know Ew will vouch you he already has.
You counterclaim Devon not knowing if he is mafia or town.
Devon is lynched mafia
Biggest risk now is town cop me

I sorta think you deserve to win if so.
But Hjelp got me thinking this so he would deserve to win too.

Is this crazy crass craziness from a crazy town nuthouse?

It might be. I think I need doc to give me some sanity pills.

[Loose Canon]

Fpd by Devante - playing on my phone.

Quack doctor.
That wasn't what I was thinking, I was at that point thinking whether doctor could be a mafia or 3p role somehow and what the implications of that might be if possible.
Because I was thinking 1 bad cop ISH in Devon, probably 1 bad doc ISH too for balance.
Sonic I think from somewhere likes the idea of quack doctor though.
So maybe

[Devante]

Fpd by Devante - playing on my phone.

Quack doctor.
That wasn't what I was thinking, I was at that point thinking whether doctor could be a mafia or 3p role somehow and what the implications of that might be if possible.
Because I was thinking 1 bad cop ISH in Devon, probably 1 bad doc ISH too for balance.
Sonic I think from somewhere likes the idea of quack doctor though.
So maybe

Just a thought. Based on claims so far I suspect that one of the cop claims is false and rather surprised that there isn't more then one doctor also, given this whole Reid technique thing Sonic is trying to do, but so far Darin's claim hasn't been countered although his voting and protecting the same individuals seems very suspect.

[Loose Canon]

Yes you are right Darin did vote Hjelp d2 then protected him n2

Didn't register that, it is suss

[hjelp]

Fpd by Devante - playing on my phone.

Quack doctor.
That wasn't what I was thinking, I was at that point thinking whether doctor could be a mafia or 3p role somehow and what the implications of that might be if possible.
Because I was thinking 1 bad cop ISH in Devon, probably 1 bad doc ISH too for balance.
Sonic I think from somewhere likes the idea of quack doctor though.
So maybe

Just a thought. Based on claims so far I suspect that one of the cop claims is false and rather surprised that there isn't more then one doctor also, given this whole Reid technique thing Sonic is trying to do, but so far Darin's claim hasn't been countered although his voting and protecting the same individuals seems very suspect.

A Quack Doc make sense if one thinks about

....

“Good morning, Doc, my dear,”
Said Dino smooth, with charm sincere.
...
...
Luigi laughed, his grin too wide,
“Consultancy, Doc — ’cause we’re on your side.”
...
...
Luigi leaned close, his voice a hum,
“Remember, Doc — results must come.”
He opened his suitcase, flicked a switch — the lights went red.

The Doctor froze — then saw the sign:
His own creation, by design.
The Reid Machine, cold, gleamed divine —
The Doctor’s guilt… his Frankenstein.
...

and if Darin44 is a Quack Doc turned to Mafia, i.e. Darin44 filps Mafia then
the Assumption I is false and Loose Canon flips Town.
Would be strange though if Town doesn't has a Doc.
No one else has claimed Town Doc.

[Loose Canon]

[Quack doc doesn't necessarily equate to mafia. Can be town quack.

Having said that I'm interested in what Darin has to say re decision to protect you Hjelp.

The doctor link to Charle s role bothers me it is really irregular.
Charle 3p poisoner by day, 3p cop by night , automatically able to drug Ew or maybe any night visitor with his doctor credentials - it fits for me (until it doesn't!)

Gonna fly that kite anyway

vote Charle

[SoN!c]

Official vote count:

Loose Canon: (1) Charle
Charle: (1) Loose Canon

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch!

[hjelp]

@ Loose Canon
it's only 1/10 chance that Charle was role blocked N1. I guess that's why EW chosed to move on with claim Charle and halrob64. I also think that EW received the 1st PR reward. EW mentioned 100%.

[hjelp]

@ Devante
I still not satisfied with you answers. You have 5 steps to fulfill and D3 is the fifth "play". Maybe you have completed your task N3.
A "Very large Sword" even if a small dagger is killing. A sub Doc/Cop isn't much and no one has so far claimed Doc besides Darin44. And nor Cop has yet been killed/lynched neither a Doc.

[hjelp]

I think Darin44 is the Town Doc since no one else has claimed Town Doc. So I stick to one Town Doc and one Town Cop.

[Charle]

I was not roleblocked N1, I was investigating Rob and the result came back, Town. My role tells me if Doc saves me, then my result will be opposite. EW's claim then made sense to me, as he then claimed that if he visits the cop at night, then the cop will get a true result. EW also knew that I visited Rob. So I then later knew my result was a true result for N1 (and Rob should be able to confirm that) because the Doc did not visit me and EW visited me (double sure my result was true).

Because of the above, the fact that Loose now tries to swing the vote my side, makes me wonder. I would also maybe just give Loose the benefit of the doubt, to see what happens with his investigation tonight and D4 would give those who are still alive more to work with. It would be great if we could lynch the one who blocked me N2.

I think the time has come for Ragian to spill the beans with a claim and what he learned the previous 2 nights, as we know there is a roleblocker of some sort, meaning Ragian should have gotten some result from either nights as we had odd and even nights.

So for now I will Unvote and happy to go for Ragian if he doesn't come out with a proper answer as of why he don't want to share his experience of the last 2 nights. Just saying I don't want to give Scum a shopping list to choose from is not an excuse at this stage anymore, it's time for Town to work together as a team.

Having said this, everybody who has any info to work with should come out now.

[Loose Canon]

@ Loose Canon
it's only 1/10 chance that Charle was role blocked N1. I guess that's why EW chosed to move on with claim Charle and halrob64. I also think that EW received the 1st PR reward. EW mentioned 100%.

The hypothesis is he's a poisoner by day with the add on that horse tranquiliser is slipped into the cup of anyone who visits him at night. (EW). Charle is investigation proof.
Then at night he's cop who visits anyone he wants and learns fully about them - role & what they've done.
With that hypothesis he could have visited anyone N1 - but most probably did visit Halrob.

Gives him all the opportunity he needs to swing game whatever way he wants.

Its his doctor visiiting him guarantees his result add on into his claimed role that makes me comfortable with sticking with this hypothesis.

[SoN!c]

Official vote count:

NO VOTES

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch!