D3 of The Reid technique Mafia Game

[hjelp]

Then how can you know that mafia has more information given than town ?

[Extreme Ways]

More and more Hal you’re creeping up the radar and I’m starting to think you might be town acting weirdly from lack of experience but if you keep going this route of just randomness then you might as well be camping with max. Better would be to provide some opinion like loose did. I would welcome that because regardless of whether I ended up getting lynched it would add info to look back on for town.

To town in case there’s a rapid lunch on me and I don’t get to declare would say watch the votes and the way they came in

As for sonics sonnets. From what I read there are 3 maybe 4 we are fighting against. 3 in cohusion at least. I’m on my phone but will post the relevant phrases that I saw as well as direct player acknowledgements and role hints. Some of which I’ll post and others I’ll hold back for obvious reasons. I got a lull of about A3-4 days in farming and the regular job so trying to be more active right now but we’ll see if that’s of benefit or not I guess

Halrob is still infinitely better than Max, even if a lot of it is fluff. You can at least see where he is coming from.

[Extreme Ways]

Now I'm waiting for EW to gather the posts made and compile.

youre not wrong...

I want to analyse the mech post Sonic made. I hate GenAI-based analysis on the balance of setups but in the output theres at least 1 obvious thing I noticed.

[Extreme Ways]

The player who I'm most mindf***ing myself over right now is ragian though.

There was the strike thing, which he retreated himself from too quickly for my comfort.

Then he hasn't actually voted at all D1 yet, and played quietly or reservedly for rag. And I'm thinking was this to not draw attention.

Then I find I like his post on dev.
But liking a rag post doesn't make rag town.

My vote isn't on rag, but he is top of my self mindf***ery / curiosity/ suspicion.

If X happens overnight, odds of Rag/Strike being scum/scum go up tremendously but so far I do not strike (heh) Rag's play as scummy.

[hjelp]

Then how can you know that mafia has more information given than town ?

@ Loose Canon I guess you can't answer it since it will reveal in case of mafias didn't notice. So don't answer. It's ok.

[Extreme Ways]

unvote


Dev is either third party or town.

PS @ both Dev and Sonic, questions surrounding your role (and answers) go in DMs not the thread. Sonic's post of "consider your condition null and void" is now a part of the game, which is why Dev can pretty much never be scum.

[Extreme Ways]

Well Devante, if you took the time to read my posts you would have found a lot of substantial clues, but you have just declared town which I think is quite deliberate

I am town and will claim if forced but that would not be of benefit to anyone other then scum.

So now we have 2 pr claims pretty much. I usually play a lot more coy around pr reads but when it's so open I feel the need to point it out. Halrob started the game out saying something about the setup and pretty much confirms this here. Dev doesnt quite claim pr yet but hints at it, basically saying "back off". I dont quite like it, it feels too early to be invoking a get out of jail free card.

So pretty much I dont like how Dev went around his claim and tbh I also dont like how Halrob went around his softs but it tracks with the previous game so it gets a pass.

EBWOP(?): noticed this had been FP'd and didnt go through

[hjelp]

Now I'm waiting for EW to gather the posts made and compile.

youre not wrong...

I want to analyse the mech post Sonic made. I hate GenAI-based analysis on the balance of setups but in the output theres at least 1 obvious thing I noticed.

I don't think you are allowed to use AI, Rule #4

[Extreme Ways]

FYI : An AI analyse of the REID TECHNIQUE MAFIA GAME set-up (forbidden to do as player while alive!) was done before the start to check for unbalances / better suggestions. This was the final verdict before the game went live :

"The Reid technique Mafia Game" is a thematically rich and mechanically balanced 11-player custom setup.
It rewards smart reads, communication, and adaptive play.

Balance Summary
Faction Members Notes
Town (?) ?
Mafia (?) Compact but synergistic toolkit
? (?) Chaos agent preventing hard reads

? (?)
? ("Their leader hides behind odd lies.")
? ("Only detained by ?'s bars of iron grace or touched by ? ? hands, his hunger stills,- but ? undone, and ? worn, he feasts — and always ?.")

→ Win chance estimate:

Town ~48–52%

Mafia ~35–40%

? ~10–15% (?)

Pretty even for skilled players, and very dynamic with multiple overlapping night interactions. High interaction; every role matters; no faction has dominance.
Overall: Highly interactive, balanced within ±5% of neutral expectation.

Late Game Predictions (D5+):

If ? survives, likely 1v1v1 endgame.
If ? dies early, ? vs ? ends 2v3 or 2v2; still very tense.

? victory depend strongly on ? and careful ?.

Balance Verdict

Strengths

Deep interplay between the power roles — no “useless” powers.

? mechanic introduces strategic deception, not RNG chaos.

Multiple soft counters prevent any single role from dominating.

3 factions keep game tempo fast and dynamic.

Potential Weak Spots

If ? chain-protects ? repeatedly, ? can snowball into confusion; ? should be encouraged to intervene and counter.

If ? dies very early, late-game may lean slightly ?-favored.

If ? loses ?-role early, investigative pressure rises sharply.

Key takeaway is the third party. This could be Dev, could be someone else. Based on the "chaos agent" it's a role which doesnt win more often with 1 side, but a role with its own wincon.

If ? loses ?-role early indicates to either a godfather or a roleblocker on the scum side. If ? chain-protects ? repeatedly, ? can snowball into confusion; ? should be encouraged to intervene and counter.

The snowball into confusion hints at a bastard mechanic with false results. I know of many different cop flavours. Some randomise result, some give the opposite result. I dont know what cop we are dealing with but the investigative result can be false and there's a way for town to guarantee it to be true.

The "chaos-agent preventing hard reads" whilst also claiming that it's "strategic deception, not RNG chaos" sounds like opposites to me.

We probably should ward reading too much into it, but having a confirmed third party is nice. I'm guessing we have a cop, a doc, something that makes the cop be a good cop.

Scum has roleblocker or godfather. Maybe a Framer (makes someone come up as guilty when investigated).

[Extreme Ways]

Now I'm waiting for EW to gather the posts made and compile.

youre not wrong...

I want to analyse the mech post Sonic made. I hate GenAI-based analysis on the balance of setups but in the output theres at least 1 obvious thing I noticed.

I don't think you are allowed to use AI, Rule #4

I did not, I just dislike that Sonic did it. I dont trust its ability to analyse a game for balance.

[Loose Canon]

Then how can you know that mafia has more information given than town ?

Standard set up is town only knows their own roles and not who fellow town are.
Mafia however know who each other are and what each other mafias role is.
Therefore with their shared intelligence they can make better educated inferences too.

And it therefore also follows that they can work out ambiguity in breadcrumbing better.

There's a lot of one bit of logic leading to another in what I'm saying here, so maybe I shouldn't insist Halrob blows up the ideas he's had in breadcrumbing by claiming if he doesn't want to or doesn't agree but I do think it would be better if he did.

Fpd by hjelp and noted but I don't see the harm in posting this

Fpd by ew now

[Kingm]

Well Devante, if you took the time to read my posts you would have found a lot of substantial clues, but you have just declared town which I think is quite deliberate

I am town and will claim if forced but that would not be of benefit to anyone other then scum.

So now we have 2 pr claims pretty much. I usually play a lot more coy around pr reads but when it's so open I feel the need to point it out. Halrob started the game out saying something about the setup and pretty much confirms this here. Dev doesnt quite claim pr yet but hints at it, basically saying "back off". I dont quite like it, it feels too early to be invoking a get out of jail free card.

So pretty much I dont like how Dev went around his claim and tbh I also dont like how Halrob went around his softs but it tracks with the previous game so it gets a pass.

EBWOP(?): noticed this had been FP'd and didnt go through

Ok, I really should know it, since I have played a few games now, and probably have asked before, and I could probably google it.
But could someone make a list of all the shorthands that are used in mafia, like I know that L- means x from lynch, but was does the L stand from, is it just Lynch maybe?

What about EBWOP? and FP'd, like that posted if there was a post written while you wore writing or something, but it seems like you reg. mafia players always do use FP when it happens, why?

FP'd by EW x2 and LC

[Extreme Ways]

Well Devante, if you took the time to read my posts you would have found a lot of substantial clues, but you have just declared town which I think is quite deliberate

I am town and will claim if forced but that would not be of benefit to anyone other then scum.

So now we have 2 pr claims pretty much. I usually play a lot more coy around pr reads but when it's so open I feel the need to point it out. Halrob started the game out saying something about the setup and pretty much confirms this here. Dev doesnt quite claim pr yet but hints at it, basically saying "back off". I dont quite like it, it feels too early to be invoking a get out of jail free card.

So pretty much I dont like how Dev went around his claim and tbh I also dont like how Halrob went around his softs but it tracks with the previous game so it gets a pass.

EBWOP(?): noticed this had been FP'd and didnt go through

Ok, I really should know it, since I have played a few games now, and probably have asked before, and I could probably google it.
But could someone make a list of all the shorthands that are used in mafia, like I know that L- means x from lynch, but was does the L stand from, is it just Lynch maybe?

What about EBWOP? and FP'd, like that posted if there was a post written while you wore writing or something, but it seems like you reg. mafia players always do use FP when it happens, why?

FP'd by EW x2 and LC

FP = Fastposted. I think people use it to say that they havent taken the new post into consideration before posting.

Like I saw Loose also pointing out a possible Rag/Strike angle, if we were both in thread at the same time I would want to say "FP'd by Loose" to indicate that it was my own original thought too, not just agreeing with Loose.

EBWOP = edit by way of post. I used it more as an PS here because I was closing tabs and noticed one post hadnt gone through.
LYLO = CYLO = Lynch or you lose. In a scenario where a mislynch or no lynch ends the game.
MYLO = mislynch and you lose. In a scenario where mislynching loses the game, but no lynch may be a viable approach.
GTH = gun to head
omgus = oh my god you suck, basically accusing whoever is pushing you of being mafia. Hjelp focused on both people who pushed him earlier, and it looked "omgus-y". Some people play more like that when they are town, others more when they are mafia.

v!EW = t!EW = "town EW"
s!EW = w!EW = "wolf EW"
both of these are most often used like "if v!EW then probably w!<player>" to make associative arguments. Or "w!Rag would mean w!Strike" to say that Rag's pretend-push at Strike looks more partnering than unpartnering if Rag ends up flipping scum.

[Extreme Ways]

Then how can you know that mafia has more information given than town ?

Standard set up is town only knows their own roles and not who fellow town are.
Mafia however know who each other are and what each other mafias role is.
Therefore with their shared intelligence they can make better educated inferences too.

And it therefore also follows that they can work out ambiguity in breadcrumbing better.

There's a lot of one bit of logic leading to another in what I'm saying here, so maybe I shouldn't insist Halrob blows up the ideas he's had in breadcrumbing by claiming if he doesn't want to or doesn't agree but I do think it would be better if he did.

Fpd by hjelp and noted but I don't see the harm in posting this

Fpd by ew now

Loose is completely correct here btw. Mafia have more information by virtue of being the informed majority. They know what roles exist on their side, which also means they can fill in what other roles may exist more easily. They are also looking for breadcrumbs, and they will know that the person breadcrumbing is not scum.

And also with the whole setup review by chatgpt scum will know a lot more what the question marks are referring to.

So to summarise what Loose already said: Breadcrumbing is fine if not good, but refer to your breadcrumbs when you need to to put weight to words, not when it's meaningless.

[Darin44]

unvote

[Darin44]

I thank I'm going to have to reread everything more confused than I was before.

[Devante]

The player who I'm most mindf***ing myself over right now is ragian though.

There was the strike thing, which he retreated himself from too quickly for my comfort.

Then he hasn't actually voted at all D1 yet, and played quietly or reservedly for rag. And I'm thinking was this to not draw attention.

Then I find I like his post on dev.
But liking a rag post doesn't make rag town.

My vote isn't on rag, but he is top of my self mindf***ery / curiosity/ suspicion.

If X happens overnight, odds of Rag/Strike being scum/scum go up tremendously but so far I do not strike (heh) Rag's play as scummy.

EW can you further explain this, not sure I follow if X happens tonight

[Devante]

Well Devante, if you took the time to read my posts you would have found a lot of substantial clues, but you have just declared town which I think is quite deliberate

I am town and will claim if forced but that would not be of benefit to anyone other then scum.

So now we have 2 pr claims pretty much. I usually play a lot more coy around pr reads but when it's so open I feel the need to point it out. Halrob started the game out saying something about the setup and pretty much confirms this here. Dev doesnt quite claim pr yet but hints at it, basically saying "back off". I dont quite like it, it feels too early to be invoking a get out of jail free card.

So pretty much I dont like how Dev went around his claim and tbh I also dont like how Halrob went around his softs but it tracks with the previous game so it gets a pass.

EBWOP(?): noticed this had been FP'd and didnt go through

given conditions was the only way to go about it

[Devante]

I like this post from Devante. To me, he comes across as knowing he might get forced to claim, and he's trying to see how that could be beneficial to town. Any town player must be willing to sacrifice themselves in order to win in the long run. That's the vibe I'm getting here.

Really Ragian??
I thought the role of townsfolk was to identify who is mafia and eliminate them, sacrificing yourself is detrimental to the game and town friends.
Getting eliminated weakens the town position.
I'm suspicious of Devante threatening to claim town, I don't see the need at this stage to do that, in any event if its true he has played his hand too soon.
I'm now suspicious of you encouraging him to commit suicide for the town as that would be something scum would encourage.

Hal how is it suspicious of me claiming town. What else would you expect someone to do regardless of their allegiance. My issue is having to share what my role is as it would only benefit scum at this point. Not sure how you don't see that. Rag is not stating I should commit suicide for town at least not at this point as there's no benefit to town, simply stating that any townie should be willing to sacrifice himself for the greater play of a town win. Again don't see how that's not clear.

As for sonics poems. From what I've gathered there is indeed 3 scum, mainly here from poems:

When night is whole and silver gleams,
Three fates entwine in mortal dreams.

from first post

Which one was framed, and which one inspired?

from second post, a misdirect role

In halls where doubt and whisper lie,
Three shadows rule, yet none ask why.
They build their thrones on shifting ties —
Are how the clever colonize.

One speaks with silver, calm and sure,
One smiles so sweet the crowd’s unsure,
One watches, silent, counting blame —
And none will name them all the same.

from post on the 23rd. Which gives me hints towards PR's of scum such as a tracker and/or busdriver, second and third reference in last paragraph

Now in Sonics last informative post there was very clearly stated that best scenario would be town, scum and 3p from what I gathered.

→ Win chance estimate:

Town ~48–52%

Mafia ~35–40%

? ~10–15% (?)

Late Game Predictions (D5+):

If ? survives, likely 1v1v1 endgame.
If ? dies early, ? vs ? ends 2v3 or 2v2; still very tense.

3 factions keep game tempo fast and dynamic.

So I think that's what we have, four to find here. and there's a few points in poem which could lean towards an arsonist for 3p

So tell me, observer, if reason’s your trade:
Who built the fire that burned the charade?

So could be reading into this quite a bit but given it's sonic I wouldn't think so

FP Kingm

EW curious if you got any take on this. Should we be looking at any of the above for clues or am I just wasting my time looking at these poems and it's just flavour

[Kingm]

I like this post from Devante. To me, he comes across as knowing he might get forced to claim, and he's trying to see how that could be beneficial to town. Any town player must be willing to sacrifice themselves in order to win in the long run. That's the vibe I'm getting here.

Really Ragian??
I thought the role of townsfolk was to identify who is mafia and eliminate them, sacrificing yourself is detrimental to the game and town friends.
Getting eliminated weakens the town position.
I'm suspicious of Devante threatening to claim town, I don't see the need at this stage to do that, in any event if its true he has played his hand too soon.
I'm now suspicious of you encouraging him to commit suicide for the town as that would be something scum would encourage.

Hal how is it suspicious of me claiming town. What else would you expect someone to do regardless of their allegiance. My issue is having to share what my role is as it would only benefit scum at this point. Not sure how you don't see that. Rag is not stating I should commit suicide for town at least not at this point as there's no benefit to town, simply stating that any townie should be willing to sacrifice himself for the greater play of a town win. Again don't see how that's not clear.

As for sonics poems. From what I've gathered there is indeed 3 scum, mainly here from poems:

When night is whole and silver gleams,
Three fates entwine in mortal dreams.

from first post

Which one was framed, and which one inspired?

from second post, a misdirect role

In halls where doubt and whisper lie,
Three shadows rule, yet none ask why.
They build their thrones on shifting ties —
Are how the clever colonize.

One speaks with silver, calm and sure,
One smiles so sweet the crowd’s unsure,
One watches, silent, counting blame —
And none will name them all the same.

from post on the 23rd. Which gives me hints towards PR's of scum such as a tracker and/or busdriver, second and third reference in last paragraph

Now in Sonics last informative post there was very clearly stated that best scenario would be town, scum and 3p from what I gathered.

→ Win chance estimate:

Town ~48–52%

Mafia ~35–40%

? ~10–15% (?)

Late Game Predictions (D5+):

If ? survives, likely 1v1v1 endgame.
If ? dies early, ? vs ? ends 2v3 or 2v2; still very tense.

3 factions keep game tempo fast and dynamic.

So I think that's what we have, four to find here. and there's a few points in poem which could lean towards an arsonist for 3p

So tell me, observer, if reason’s your trade:
Who built the fire that burned the charade?

So could be reading into this quite a bit but given it's sonic I wouldn't think so

FP Kingm

EW curious if you got any take on this. Should we be looking at any of the above for clues or am I just wasting my time looking at these poems and it's just flavour

Dev I'm almost 100% sure you are not wasting you time, this is so sonic, he loves to "involve" himself in the game when he host, so I would be really surprised if there is no breadcrumbs in those poems.

[hjelp]

Hjelp focused on both people who pushed him earlier

I prefer so, I did so in the former game and in this game too. Not to say that I will do the same the next game.
I'm not fond of a random "vote xxx" thrown out in the first post in a game, as some other players do.

[Loose Canon]

I thank I'm going to have to reread everything more confused than I was before.

Ok theres only conspiracy at the moment, no crime scene to investigate, no evidence to evaluate, no murder committed - that will change D2 and so will thoughts.

IF YOU ARE TOWN
Maybe go through each of the players and give your current assessments, and in particular anything that you think or have thought was suspicious.
Your critical thinking is as valid as anyones and you may have noticed something we haven't, maybe even in your subconcious.
Posting what YOU think will help you to tackle confusion.

IF YOU ARE MAFIA
Best say nothing

fpd by hjelp

[halrob64]

fpd by hjelp[/quote]

IF YOU ARE TOWN
Maybe go through each of the players and give your current assessments, and in particular anything that you think or have thought was suspicious.
Your critical thinking is as valid as anyones and you may have noticed something we haven't, maybe even in your subconcious.
Posting what YOU think will help you to tackle confusion.

IF YOU ARE MAFIA
Best say nothing

OK come on then townsfolk everyone come out of the woodwork and give your assessments...oh oops now your exposed to the mafia and madmen who lurk in the bushes and say nothing

[Extreme Ways]

fpd by hjelp

IF YOU ARE TOWN
Maybe go through each of the players and give your current assessments, and in particular anything that you think or have thought was suspicious.
Your critical thinking is as valid as anyones and you may have noticed something we haven't, maybe even in your subconcious.
Posting what YOU think will help you to tackle confusion.

IF YOU ARE MAFIA
Best say nothing

OK come on then townsfolk everyone come out of the woodwork and give your assessments...oh oops now your exposed to the mafia and madmen who lurk in the bushes and say nothing[/quote]
And exposed to town.

If town chooses never to say anything, we may as well play gunboat mafia. Votes only. Trust me, that is not going to be any better.

[hjelp]

I thank I'm going to have to reread everything more confused than I was before.

Ok theres only conspiracy at the moment, no crime scene to investigate, no evidence to evaluate, no murder committed - that will change D2 and so will thoughts.

IF YOU ARE TOWN
Maybe go through each of the players and give your current assessments, and in particular anything that you think or have thought was suspicious.
Your critical thinking is as valid as anyones and you may have noticed something we haven't, maybe even in your subconcious.
Posting what YOU think will help you to tackle confusion.

IF YOU ARE MAFIA
Best say nothing

fpd by hjelp

As an good example you said nothing

I think many of the players have written "in particular anything that you think or have thought was suspicious." (except for the standard opening in the game = throw out a vote and that's all).
Mafias will also do this since if "saying nothing" then implies mafias. In the end after this assignement we will all end up as Town.
Did I get it?