U.S. ELECTION 2024 - HARRIS VS TRUMP

[saxitoxin]

Prediction Models Update

S&P 500 Model
https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/20 ... 8e399ee60c
Favored as of 8/6: Trump

HarrisX (1 of 2 most accurate polls of 2020
https://harvardharrispoll.com/crosstabs-july-3/
Favored as of 8/6: Trump

TIPP (1 of 2 most accurate polls of 2020)
https://issuesinsights.com/2024/08/05/t ... tipp-poll/
Favored as of 8/6: Harris

RCP Polling Average
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/ ... -vs-harris
Favored as of 8/6: Harris

24Cast
https://24cast.org/
Favored as of 8/6: Trump

538
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/
Favored as of 8/6: No one

[Cubsessed]

I'm shocked by Kamala's pick for VP. She has the momentum currently. The Dems were probably already going to win Minnesota. Why not pick a popular Pennsylvania governor, and continue with that momentum all the way to the convention? Wow, just wow. Anyway, this has probably been the wildest presidential race I've ever witnessed, and I'm definitely watching the convention to see how this plays out.

[mookiemcgee]

I'm shocked by Kamala's pick for VP. She has the momentum currently. The Dems were probably already going to win Minnesota. Why not pick a popular Pennsylvania governor, and continue with that momentum all the way to the convention? Wow, just wow. Anyway, this has probably been the wildest presidential race I've ever witnessed, and I'm definitely watching the convention to see how this plays out.

Just my view but I think that even though she picked the 'more left' of the two (which mirrors the potential mistake made picking JDV) there is a clear charisma/likability difference between these final two options. The PA guy is kinda stiff and lawyerlike in his vibes (which Kamala mirrors in some ways), maybe even a little young mike pense vibes, whereas the MN guy seems to have way more of an 'everyman' type of appeal. I actually don't know a ton about either of these guys, and it will be interesting to see what skeletons start coming out of the closet over the coming months. On paper the PA guy might have seemed like he's bringing votes where they are needed but having heard them both talk publicly recently, from an 'elections are a high school popularity contest' perspective she made a choice I can see the value in.

I'm not going to make the mistake of calling it a good choice, cus I had thought JD was a good choice at the time and clearly things can change quickly... but it's who I would have chosen in her shoes.

[GaryDenton]

LOL, saxi.


https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris- ... es-1934405


Vice President Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump across all national poll aggregators.

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[GaryDenton]

Popular rural school teacher governor who has effectively led his state despite a closely divided government. A gun owner who left the NRA after mass shootings.
Republican attacks - he's a communist and far-left radical.

Ooh, get me that Minnesota communism.



He is also a fashion icon like Fetterman, in his tough long-lasting durable jackets, T's, and pants from Carthartt.
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[GaryDenton]

SaxiToxin - why were nearly every one of your links wrong earlier?

The S&P 500 model, not poll - you have to predict the S&P 500 on a future date.

If you are using that model you need to include the Keys for White House Victory model, too. But like the S&P 500 model it is too early to tell, but currently favors Kamala Harris.

https://thehill.com/opinion/4812206-tru ... tion-keys/

I don't see that Kamala Harris HarrisX poll, that appears to be a poll of Biden still.

In the far-right I&I TIPP poll - In the head-to-head poll, 46% of all respondents answered “Kamala Harris,” and 45% answered “Donald Trump.” The margin of error in the poll is +/-2.9 percentage points, making the presidential race at this point too close to call, at least by the numbers.

RCP, you got right despite them using some biased polls - Harris.

24Cast is somewhat correct, but his polls seem a bit delayed. They have it as Donald Trump would have a 58% chance of winning the presidency. His #1 most likely outcome based on current polls has that Kamala Harris wins 287 electoral votes. (21% of the simulations.)
#2 Most Likely Outcome: Donald Trump wins 313 electoral votes.(19% of simulations)

And Saxi looked in the wrong place for the 538 prediction. That should be up soon, but meanwhile, 538 has: Good news, polling fans: 538 now has polling averages for the new presidential matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our average of national polls says Harris has the support of 45.0 percent of voters, while Trump garners 43.5 percent.

https://abcnews.go.com/538/harris-trump ... =112494481


And they underestimate the no weirdos, and cat ladies, and Swifties for Kamala effect.
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[saxitoxin]

The S&P 500 model, not poll - you have to predict the S&P 500 on a future date.

Can you point to where I called it a poll?

I'll wait.

If you are using that model you need to include the Keys for White House Victory model, too.

No, actually, I don't need to include anything I don't want to include.

Like cryptocurrency, Conquer Club forum posting is an unregulated industry.

And Saxi looked in the wrong place for the 538 prediction. That should be up soon, but meanwhile, 538 has: Good news, polling fans: 538 now has polling averages for the new presidential matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

No, I didn't. There's a polling average and there's a prediction. I linked to the prediction, not the polling average.

I'm sorry you're upset.

I'm trying to have a calm, respectful, and erudite conversation about political science.

[saxitoxin]

MORE BAD NEWS FOR KROOKED KAMALA AND DIM TIM!

The would-be Presidentress - who has a barren womb - and her potato-faced running mate are looking increasingly buffoonish!

The Hill polling average, as of August 6, has:

• -Trump leading Harris by 0.1% in a straight average of polls.
  -Trump leading Harris by 1.1% in an average of polls adjusted for Trump underpredictions at the 2016 levels.
  -Trump leading Harris by 4.3% in an average of polls adjusted for Trump underpredictions at the 2020 levels.
  
  https://elections2024.thehill.com/natio ... m=referral

In the RCP polling average, Harris leads Trump by 0.5%. However ...

• - On August 6, 2016, Clinton led Trump by 6.9% and ultimately won the popular vote by 2.1%.
  - On August 6, 2020, Biden led Trump by 6.4% and ultimately won the popular vote by 4.5%.

[Pack Rat]

Saxi, are you losing your temper?

Barren womb (Harris)....really desperation on your part.

[saxitoxin]

S&P 500 futures are in freefall this evening!

Kamalanomics is forcing millions of elderly Americans into certain poverty by evaporating their 401Ks and IRAs. Now Dim Tim is pledging to make the misery even worse, while he is attended by scores of servants from inside his sprawling 47-room palace in Saint Paul surrounded by giant gates to keep the peasants out --

[saxitoxin]

Dude, you're getting a pink slip!

Dell just shit-canned 12,500 workers today, the latest Kamalanomics success story.

[2dimes]

Shoot, sounds pretty bad. Has she ever bankrupted a casino?

[Dukasaur]

S&P 500 futures are in freefall this evening!

Hardly a freefall, although it could still turn into one.

So far, just a garden-variety correction. Will it turn into a rout? Maybe, later. But for now, it seems to be happy with its little tumble-and-bounce.

[Dukasaur]

Shoot, sounds pretty bad. Has she ever bankrupted a casino?

Not too many people in history have managed that!

[Cubsessed]

Shoot, sounds pretty bad. Has she ever bankrupted a casino?

LOL - that would be an accomplishment of epic proportions!

[saxitoxin]

The fascists who run the City of Chicago are refusing to allow 25,000 Anti-Genocide protesters to surround the United Center and peacefully lay siege to the 4,000 delegates inside attending the planned Harris-Walz Pro-Genocide Convention in two weeks to protest their Pro-Corporate, Pro-Billionaire, Pro-Genocide, Pro-Evil policies.

The protesters have now filed lawsuit in federal court against the anti-democracy / anti-freedom policies of Harris-Walz.

A federal judge is expected to hand down a key ruling by early next week in a months-long dispute between City Hall and groups promising a massive protest during Chicago’s upcoming Democratic National Convention.

U.S. District Judge Andrea Wood heard roughly two hours of arguments Monday while considering a request for her intervention in a conflict over where those protesters will be allowed to march during the convention, which begins Aug. 19.

The groups first sought permits back in January to march “within sight and sound” of the United Center over the Israel-Hamas war. On Monday, their attorneys predicted that up to 25,000 people could participate.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/2024-democ ... est-groups

The overall goal of the protest — organizers have condemned the Democratic Party as being “a tool of billionaires and corporations” — is ending U.S. military aid to Israel and the creation of an independent Palestinian state. That same demand ignited demonstrations that shook college campuses in the spring. But the protesters in the March on the DNC 2024 come from many causes, including immigrant, reproductive and LGBTQ+ rights, anti-racist networks and those seeking to stop police repression in minority communities.

“We are in unconditional solidarity with the Palestine liberation movement,” said Frank Chapman, a mentor to Abudayyeh and field organizer and education director of the Chicago Alliance Against Racist and Political Repression. “Our political destinies are entwined. All those billions of dollars going to Israel could be used to build up America and reverse the injustices against Black Americans. You can’t have a war on poverty and at the same time perpetuate genocide overseas.”

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/ ... rch-on-dnc

[jusplay4fun]

S&P 500 futures are in freefall this evening!

Hardly a freefall, although it could still turn into one.

So far, just a garden-variety correction. Will it turn into a rout? Maybe, later. But for now, it seems to be happy with its little tumble-and-bounce.

saxi likes to engage in hyperbole, like his buddy Donald Trump.

[Pack Rat]

You two have something in common...b.s.

Now go make Saxi a sandwich!

[GaryDenton]

Trump losing the country music folk.

New "Can't Fool a Small Town"



Or can you? This appears AI generated.

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