The Thing TOWN WINS!

[degaston]

I'd like to talk more.

Nothing's stopping you. This was just a BT.

[degaston]

But as someone pointed before we could have run out of backup vigs.

I just got a message that I now have the flamethrower, and I have unlimited uses.

That was on D3, so we know I was town and had no reason to lie about that.

[strike wolf]

Well, I mean after the BT. I like the plan though I'd like to be 100% sure that Vigging the recruiter would stop the recruit for the night. Is it true, DDS? Or maybe he actually said this more specifically than I remember.

[degaston]

Well, I mean after the BT. I like the plan though I'd like to be 100% sure that Vigging the recruiter would stop the recruit for the night. Is it true, DDS? Or maybe he actually said this more specifically than I remember.

I asked him this in a PM, and he said yes. You can ask him yourself, or he could post it in the thread.

[strike wolf]

I only see one issue with your plan if that's the case then. If you're cult and DDS just didn't put the flame thrower line in there (limited transfers?). Then we've doomed ourselves. We end up lynching town and Cult wins a 2-2. We also can't no lynch as cult would win 3 to 2.

Conversely, if we lynch Vot though and you are cult and can recruit after he's dead then we're screwed regardless. So I guess we have no choice but to act on the idea that you aren't recruited.

[TrafalgarLaw01]

But as someone pointed before we could have run out of backup vigs.

I just got a message that I now have the flamethrower, and I have unlimited uses.

That was on D3, so we know I was town and had no reason to lie about that.

No Strike mentioned on D4. Last page. Cant do multiple quotes rn as I am on the phone. But will tomorrow if needed.

But I am not risking a no lynch on a possitive test. Lets see what Ragian has to say. But If he is still town he could see my fear of following that path

Fp by strike

[strike wolf]

Wait. We have to lynch Vot because if we guess wrong on Traf or Rage than it's game over and cult wins.

[degaston]

Wait. We have to lynch Vot because if we guess wrong on Traf or Rage than it's game over and cult wins.

Incorrect.
Assuming you're proven to be town, and therefore Vot is the original Thing.
If we lynch Rag and we're wrong, then after I vig Vot, there is no way for the Things to recruit someone new that night, so the next day it will be you, me, and Traf.
Traf is the last Thing, and you and I can lynch him without a BT. (or we can do a BT so that DDS can post the positive reaction for once)

[degaston]

Wait. We have to lynch Vot because if we guess wrong on Traf or Rage than it's game over and cult wins.

Incorrect.
Assuming you're proven to be town, and therefore Vot is the original Thing.
If we lynch Rag and we're wrong, then after I vig Vot, there is no way for the Things to recruit someone new that night, so the next day it will be you, me, and Traf.
Traf is the last Thing, and you and I can lynch him without a BT. (or we can do a BT so that DDS can post the positive reaction for once)

To be clear, this would require Rag to vote to lynch himself, because I assume the Things (in this example, Vot and Traf) would not want to go along with this plan.

[degaston]

I would ask that no one vote after the BT results until we have agreed upon a plan. If one townie makes an incorrect vote, then the two Things may be able to hammer to win the game.

[strike wolf]

Games generally end when town no longer outnumbers the scum group. So I think your ability to vig Vot after the lynch may be irrelevant.

@DDS: Right?

[degaston]

Games generally end when town no longer outnumbers the scum group. So I think your ability to vig Vot after the lynch may be irrelevant.

@DDS: Right?

DDS can rule on this, but in this case that would make no sense since town has a night kill and cult doesn't.

[TrafalgarLaw01]

I agree on holding lynch votes.

But I find hard to convice me that one of Strike or Vot are not lynched today.

Here is my idea then if strike shows negative.

We lycnh Vot. If Deg still has the FM he fames either me or Rag if he gets it right its insta town win. If he gets it wrong its still 2v1 if the recruiter can rhen recruit cause gained the power then its game over. But that has one big If (recruiter can convert) and Deg judgement.
If he happens not to Flame he is the converted and if he has the ability to recruit well, then its game over. But we are banking on Deg still being the Vig.

If Strikes comes Positive I am not risking on Deg plan and we have to lynch Strike

[DirtyDishSoap]

Games generally end when town no longer outnumbers the scum group. So I think your ability to vig Vot after the lynch may be irrelevant.

@DDS: Right?

Right. Game ends when town no longer holds majority

Well, I mean after the BT. I like the plan though I'd like to be 100% sure that Vigging the recruiter would stop the recruit for the night. Is it true, DDS? Or maybe he actually said this more specifically than I remember.

Yes. Kills are before conversion.

[Ragian]

Wow. You get five hours of sleep and the thread explodes. I've been saying it's Vot from D2, but no one is listening. Just see how little he adds. I've only skimmed (busy morning). Will read up when work calms down a bit.

Better put my vote where my mouth is. vote votanic

[degaston]

Wow. You get five hours of sleep and the thread explodes. I've been saying it's Vot from D2, but no one is listening. Just see how little he adds. I've only skimmed (busy morning). Will read up when work calms down a bit.

Better put my vote where my mouth is. vote votanic

Would you mind unvoting until we have a BT?
And please read my posts.

[degaston]

Wow. You get five hours of sleep and the thread explodes. I've been saying it's Vot from D2, but no one is listening. Just see how little he adds. I've only skimmed (busy morning). Will read up when work calms down a bit.

Better put my vote where my mouth is. vote votanic

To be clear, If Vot is not the Thing, then Strike and his recruit could hammer to win the game.

[Ragian]

unvote

I told you I was going to read when I got to work. What if Vot and Votever hit Strike to win the game? (I haven't tallied votes.)

[Ragian]

I went through about as much of the history as I could stand to see if I should choose Strike or Vot instead of Charle, and maybe Strike was a tiny bit scummier than Vot, but if I chose wrong then town would be dead today, so I went with Charle.

So... who wants to be BT'd today?

How can you say that Strike is scummier than Votanic? Vot has been non-committal throughout the game. I wanted his blood D2. No one caved. I wanted his blood D3. No one caved. I mean...look at this:

Well... I guess it's obvious how strike and myself will vote.

I might add that strike did not convert me last night.
...Oh yeah, and for that matter, neither did I convert him.

So the sooner we BT the sooner this will be resolved.

"Let's BT. I'm not votig anyone, of course." Same shit, different day.

Actually I take it back. It's slightly better for everyone to know I'm town and give us better odds at finding the recruit quicker. So BT me.

If the recruit can't recruit then if we use the vig, we should still be in a 2 v1 situation if the vig shot misses and if I'm known town then town will know who the recruit is after the failed vig shot. If in the unlikely scenario that the recruit can recruit then the 50/50 vig shot would be our only chance. If I'm not BTed then Dega would have a 1 in 3 chance of hitting right. Even in the non-recruit situation, Dega using the shot would confirm him as still town.

We know that you're town, Strike. I mean, look at your gameplay and compare it to Votanic's. You're constantly sticking your neck out. Even if you were converted, we should just lynch Votanic. Tomorrow, there's no recruit and thus it's 3v1. We BT one, force a no lynch, and so on.

I have a new plan to handle the possibility where a recruit can become the recruiter if the original Thing dies.
If the original Thing is lynched, then we could assume the recruited would take over that night, and submit their recruitment choice.
But if the original Thing is vigged, then they should get no recruitment that night, and the recruited would not get a chance until the next night. (Because night results aren't normally calculated until all actions have been submitted.)
So the problem is, how do we guarantee that we vig the Thing.

We BT Strike.
If it comes back innocent, then Vot is the Thing, and he recruited either Rag or Traf.
So we lynch either Rag or Traf and I'll vig Vot.
If we lynch correctly, then both things are dead and town wins immediately.
If we lynch incorrectly, then the next day Strike and I are guaranteed town, and can lynch whichever one of Rag or Traf we didn't lynch the previous day.

If it comes back guilty, then Strike is either the recruiter or the recruited.
In this case, we lynch Vot, and I'll vig Strike.
If Strike recruited Vot, or vice-versa, then they are both dead and town wins immediately.
If Strike recruited Rag or Traf, then we (Rag, Traf, and I) BT one of them, and can lynch correctly depending on the result.

This will work the same if we swap the actions for Vot and Strike.

Oh lord... See... This is too elaborate, and now my spider sense flare up again. What if you were the last backup vig and converted? I get it that it doesn't say in the scene. I'm with you. All the way. Until you end here. All of this hinges on the fact that you are not converted, and we only have your word (and, to the extent that it matters, the scene's) word for it.

I don't like it, mate.

---
Would also like to comment on this: strike wolf on Mon Dec 18, 2023 3:29 am

*Shrugs* I was going to wait for Ragian to comment but I'm currently believing Traf and this will clear the air some.

BT Strike

Half three in the morning, mate. I'm sorry that I'm asleep

First post of the day was: DirtyDishSoap on Sun Dec 17, 2023 9:15 pm
Excuse me for not checking the forum half an hour before I crash.

---

Because we can not be sure u are not the recruited. You and Strike can come up with this plan to make us believe you are still vig and its a certain town win just not to be.

Charle had the FT on D1 & D2.
At the start of D3, we got the message:

An unlikely hero has found the flamethrower abandoned.

I have proven that I now have the FT, and that it happened because Charle was recruited. We did not get a similar message at the start of D4, so I still have it.

The Thing would not want to try the same thing again - there would be no reason to expect a different result. If he did, then it would be very easy for town to BT Vot or Strike, then lynch the correct one according to the results, then whoever got the FT could vig me, knowing that I had been recruited.

Again, all of this hinges on the fact that DDS would include it in the scene if the backup vig was recruited. I have seen no other clues to indicate who was recruited. I've only seen a hint that the vig changed.

If it's positive, then it's because Strike wanted you to lynch him so that I can't vig him, and his recruit will get a chance to recruit someone else.

If it's negative and you lynch Vot, then it's because YOU are the recruit, and you want the chance to recruit someone else.

I have never been in a cult game where the recruiting ability moves down the line. Have you? You're pushing this too hard for my liking. Just like Sonic did.

Well, I mean after the BT. I like the plan though I'd like to be 100% sure that Vigging the recruiter would stop the recruit for the night. Is it true, DDS? Or maybe he actually said this more specifically than I remember.

I asked him this in a PM, and he said yes. You can ask him yourself, or he could post it in the thread.

Wait. We have to lynch Vot because if we guess wrong on Traf or Rage than it's game over and cult wins.

Thank you!

[Ragian]

That was a lot of "we should do this" all hinging on the fact that Dega wasn't converted. I reeeeeeally want to vote Votanic (who's absent, but apparently people only miss me). I'll withhold it while grading papers with the external examiner, however.

[degaston]

I went through about as much of the history as I could stand to see if I should choose Strike or Vot instead of Charle, and maybe Strike was a tiny bit scummier than Vot, but if I chose wrong then town would be dead today, so I went with Charle.

So... who wants to be BT'd today?

How can you say that Strike is scummier than Votanic? Vot has been non-committal throughout the game. I wanted his blood D2. No one caved. I wanted his blood D3. No one caved. I mean...look at this:

Well... I guess it's obvious how strike and myself will vote.

I might add that strike did not convert me last night.
...Oh yeah, and for that matter, neither did I convert him.

So the sooner we BT the sooner this will be resolved.

"Let's BT. I'm not votig anyone, of course." Same shit, different day.

This was shortly after I had posted this:

I think we should just say how we intend to vote instead of making an official BT vote.

So he was just following my request. Which is sensible considering a single vote puts someone at L-2 with two scum.

[degaston]

That was a lot of "we should do this" all hinging on the fact that Dega wasn't converted.

Think about it. If you were scum, would you take a chance on recruiting me given what happened after he recruited Charle?
Yesterday I said I was not notified that I was a backup-vig, and that I had unlimited uses. You know I was telling the truth then.

Yes, my plan hinges entirely on believing that I was not recruited, but there is every reason to think that the Thing would not even try to recruit me, given that there were much safer choices, and there is zero evidence that I was recruited. There was no message about the FT today, and no one has claimed to be the new vig.

Are you 100% sure that the recruits can't recruit? I have never seen it either, but it is mentioned in the guide I use (https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Cult), and it would be perfectly in keeping with the flavor of the movie.

[strike wolf]

DDS clarifying that the game would indeed end if we lynch wrong makes the plan moot. So best course I see is to stick to the lynch Vot when my BT comes up town and take the 50/50 vig shot on Rage/Traf. As long as the game doesn't end before tomorrow then we should know one way or the other who the last recruit is. Vigging wrong does end the game if recruitment passes on but lynching incorrectly loses us the game in both scenarios.

[Ragian]

@Dega, I'm never sure about anything. I'm quite sure I only wrote that I've never seen it before. And your question whether I would do this and this as The Thing is sort of meh, too. I wouldn't have focused so much on out of play speculations either, and I would've defo recruited either you, Strike, or me at this point. So, am I on point with any of that?

@strike, we BT and lynch Vot/dega. That's my call.

[Votanic]

Wow. You get five hours of sleep and the thread explodes. I've been saying it's Vot from D2, but no one is listening. Just see how little he adds. I've only skimmed (busy morning). Will read up when work calms down a bit.

Better put my vote where my mouth is. vote votanic

Would you mind unvoting until we have a BT?
And please read my posts.

Yeah, Ragian. Stop skimming...

I've tried to follow all the possible combinations/permutations of the recent posts... Any possibility of somebody whipping up a visual flow chart on all this?
Anyway, overall I guess sounds hopeful for town, ...unless I'm missing something.

I don't mind taking a bullet* for town, if it is clearly for the best... but not knowing who was converted does make me leery of a double-cross.

*Lynch rope, flame thrower (yikes!), whatever.