Elimination quiz

[Kaskavel]

A quick test for escalating players.
[bigimg]http://image.prntscr.com/image/89630ed46b83439ea473029c1798eabe.png[/bigimg]
So, after a big risky attempt at eliminating an opponnent, you reach the position of the picture. How does red have to procceed in order to maximize his winning chances (that are about 19%)?

[mookiemcgee]

If he finds greens password, changes it and green misses 3 turns he wins 100% of the time.

Boom, nailed it1

[Donelladan]

R14 take all but S13, S14 take S13.

[Kaskavel]

Well...yes, but there is a slight improvement in that plan

[Butters1919]

after taking S13, take one roll from S13 at R13 and hope to only take a single. take two, you're done, but you probably would have failed anyways.

[Leehar]

I would still go with mookie's route, but are you thinking of taking S10 first and working yourself back for S12? I suppose you can try take r10 with q10, and then take a shot at s10 with 2v5, but not sure there's much value? Those are really the only other things I can see.
And using s14 to tap r13 also holds no value as you can't guarantee you won't win the 2-0 and lose your shot completely.

6v1=99.03171%
13v2,3,1,1,1,5 = 18.99531%
Combined odds = 18.81%?

13v2,3,1,1,5,3,1 = 6%
doesn't seem viable.

2v3 is 20.1%
1v5 to get it down to 4 is 18.97934%
Combined odds to get it to 4 is 3.8%
13v2,3,1,1,1,4 = 24.75967%
Incremental assistance is 5.75% * 3.8%=0.2185%
Thus combined odds = 18.81% + 0.21% =19%?

It is after midnight, and I think I was making up the maths at the end, so people are more than welcome to tear it apart if needed

[iAmCaffeine]

Well...yes, but there is a slight improvement in that plan

Are the odds of rolling 1-1 with a (likely) 5v2 better than 13v2,3,1,1,1,5? I'm not gonna work it out, but I imagine they are.

[mookiemcgee]

I would still go with mookie's route, but are you thinking of taking S10 first and working yourself back for S12? I suppose you can try take r10 with q10, and then take a shot at s10 with 2v5, but not sure there's much value? Those are really the only other things I can see.
And using s14 to tap r13 also holds no value as you can't guarantee you won't win the 2-0 and lose your shot completely.

6v1=99.03171%
13v2,3,1,1,1,5 = 18.99531%
Combined odds = 18.81%?

13v2,3,1,1,5,3,1 = 6%
doesn't seem viable.

2v3 is 20.1%
1v5 to get it down to 4 is 18.97934%
Combined odds to get it to 4 is 3.8%
13v2,3,1,1,1,4 = 24.75967%
Incremental assistance is 5.75% * 3.8%=0.2185%
Thus combined odds = 18.81% + 0.21% =19%?

It is after midnight, and I think I was making up the maths at the end, so people are more than welcome to tear it apart if needed

This is what i was thinking, minus the written out math. If it's a end game, there is no loss in trying for miracle attack q10/R10/S10. So do that first, then proceed with the obvious.

I don't think trying to get 1 each dice against r13 from theS14 stack has any value at all. It would screw you more than it would help

[Kaskavel]

q10 must obviously attack indeed. Small chance, but who knows? you may get lucky and kill a troop before the main stack arrives.
Risking the 0-2 from S13 is wrong indeed. A 2-0 will botch the attempt completely (which I remind you is about 19%, quite respectable), while a 1-1 will increase chances by too little (+5% or something)
But none of those 2 points are the main point of the quiz...

[Kaskavel]

I would still go with mookie's route, but are you thinking of taking S10 first and working yourself back for S12? I suppose you can try take r10 with q10, and then take a shot at s10 with 2v5, but not sure there's much value? Those are really the only other things I can see.
And using s14 to tap r13 also holds no value as you can't guarantee you won't win the 2-0 and lose your shot completely.

6v1=99.03171%
13v2,3,1,1,1,5 = 18.99531%
Combined odds = 18.81%?

Those numbers are correct (probably the rest as well, but I did not check them)
If Q10 fails, then the attempt seems to be at 18.81%. In fact, with correct play, it is above 20%. How?

[mookiemcgee]

Unless part of the image is missing, there are only 3 territs that can even attack.

The only other possible play that hasn't been mentioned, though instinctively it would seem to be worse odds is to attack R11 from R10, then going through the 3 neutral with the stack on R14 to hit S10. But again, it's hard to imagine that's better in any way

[Kaskavel]

Indeed, it cannot be, I had not even thought of that. But there is another option that has not been mentioned yet...

[IcePack]

A quick test for escalating players.
[bigimg]http://image.prntscr.com/image/89630ed46b83439ea473029c1798eabe.png[/bigimg]
So, after a big risky attempt at eliminating an opponnent, you reach the position of the picture. How does red have to procceed in order to maximize his winning chances (that are about 19%)?

If thats the last of green, depending on the card situation take S13, R13, Q12... end turn, fort S14 to R13.
Next turn now that you hold the bonus, you finish the leftover with your stack + bonus and the 5 is stuck in the off turn doing nothing as it can't do much damage

Win # = 100%

[Kaskavel]

it is an escalating quiz. Red is supposed to eliminate green in this turn for cashing his spoils. We are searching the best tactic to do that

[LiveLoveTeach]

The 6 could take the 2 singles directly above, and the 13 could try for the 2,3,1,1,5?

[Kaskavel]

The 6 could take the 2 singles directly above, and the 13 could try for the 2,3,1,1,5?

S13 does not border S12. The boarding lines are not very clear indeed.

[jfm10]

s 14 takes s13 but only moves in 2 men and tries for r13 to reduce it by a man. Q 10 hits R10 and takes it and hits S 10 with any extras.the 13 stack rolls through killing what remains of green.

[Kaskavel]

s 14 takes s13 but only moves in 2 men and tries for r13 to reduce it by a man. Q 10 hits R10 and takes it and hits S 10 with any extras.the 13 stack rolls through killing what remains of green.

Well done!

[Leehar]

s 14 takes s13 but only moves in 2 men and tries for r13 to reduce it by a man. Q 10 hits R10 and takes it and hits S 10 with any extras.the 13 stack rolls through killing what remains of green.

Well done!

That's one of the options I mentioned earlier?

I would still go with mookie's route, but are you thinking of taking S10 first and working yourself back for S12? I suppose you can try take r10 with q10, and then take a shot at s10 with 2v5, but not sure there's much value? Those are really the only other things I can see.
And using s14 to tap r13 also holds no value as you can't guarantee you won't win the 2-0 and lose your shot completely.

6v1=99.03171%
13v2,3,1,1,1,5 = 18.99531%
Combined odds = 18.81%?

13v2,3,1,1,5,3,1 = 6%
doesn't seem viable.

2v3 is 20.1%
1v5 to get it down to 4 is 18.97934%
Combined odds to get it to 4 is 3.8%
13v2,3,1,1,1,4 = 24.75967%
Incremental assistance is 5.75% * 3.8%=0.2185%
Thus combined odds = 18.81% + 0.21% =19%?

It is after midnight, and I think I was making up the maths at the end, so people are more than welcome to tear it apart if needed

I'm interested to see how you got to the 20% odds though?

[Donelladan]

What you didn't mentionned earlier is the 1st part

"s 14 takes s13 but only moves in 2 men and tries for r13 to reduce it by a man. "

Maybe you mentionned it in your map when you say "2vs3 is 20,1%" but from the text you made is wasn't clear at all that you suggested S14 only move 2 on S13 to roll a 2vs3.

[Kaskavel]

s 14 takes s13 but only moves in 2 men and tries for r13 to reduce it by a man. Q 10 hits R10 and takes it and hits S 10 with any extras.the 13 stack rolls through killing what remains of green.

Well done!

That's one of the options I mentioned earlier?

I would still go with mookie's route, but are you thinking of taking S10 first and working yourself back for S12? I suppose you can try take r10 with q10, and then take a shot at s10 with 2v5, but not sure there's much value? Those are really the only other things I can see.
And using s14 to tap r13 also holds no value as you can't guarantee you won't win the 2-0 and lose your shot completely.

6v1=99.03171%
13v2,3,1,1,1,5 = 18.99531%
Combined odds = 18.81%?

13v2,3,1,1,5,3,1 = 6%
doesn't seem viable.

2v3 is 20.1%
1v5 to get it down to 4 is 18.97934%
Combined odds to get it to 4 is 3.8%
13v2,3,1,1,1,4 = 24.75967%
Incremental assistance is 5.75% * 3.8%=0.2185%
Thus combined odds = 18.81% + 0.21% =19%?

It is after midnight, and I think I was making up the maths at the end, so people are more than welcome to tear it apart if needed

I'm interested to see how you got to the 20% odds though?

I think you did not caught up what Jfm10 wrote. He is not talking about the upper cells. When S14 kills S13, he has to advance ONLY 2 troops, no matter how many survived. Then he is free to make a spare 2vs2 attack, without risking winning the battle. A strange, cunning and seemingly illogical action that most players would miss.
Let's see the odds.
If the upper attacks fail, then it is 18.81% as you calculated. Now, if there are 3 survivors in the 6vs1 attack (96.01%) there is a 25.46% chance to reduce R13 to a singleton. Then the attack will be 13vs1,3,1,1,1,5 which is 26,05% instead of 18.99%. So we have 96.01*25.46=24.44% chance to reduce it to a singleton. So we have 24.44*26.05+75.56*18.81=6.37+14.21=20.58%
With this clever and difficult to spot move, chances go from 18.8% to 20.6% !

[mookiemcgee]

s 14 takes s13 but only moves in 2 men and tries for r13 to reduce it by a man. Q 10 hits R10 and takes it and hits S 10 with any extras.the 13 stack rolls through killing what remains of green.

Well done!

That's one of the options I mentioned earlier?

I would still go with mookie's route, but are you thinking of taking S10 first and working yourself back for S12? I suppose you can try take r10 with q10, and then take a shot at s10 with 2v5, but not sure there's much value? Those are really the only other things I can see.
And using s14 to tap r13 also holds no value as you can't guarantee you won't win the 2-0 and lose your shot completely.

6v1=99.03171%
13v2,3,1,1,1,5 = 18.99531%
Combined odds = 18.81%?

13v2,3,1,1,5,3,1 = 6%
doesn't seem viable.

2v3 is 20.1%
1v5 to get it down to 4 is 18.97934%
Combined odds to get it to 4 is 3.8%
13v2,3,1,1,1,4 = 24.75967%
Incremental assistance is 5.75% * 3.8%=0.2185%
Thus combined odds = 18.81% + 0.21% =19%?

It is after midnight, and I think I was making up the maths at the end, so people are more than welcome to tear it apart if needed

I'm interested to see how you got to the 20% odds though?

I think you did not caught up what Jfm10 wrote. He is not talking about the upper cells. When S14 kills S13, he has to advance ONLY 2 troops, no matter how many survived. Then he is free to make a spare 2vs2 attack, without risking winning the battle. A strange, cunning and seemingly illogical action that most players would miss.
Let's see the odds.
If the upper attacks fail, then it is 18.81% as you calculated. Now, if there are 3 survivors in the 6vs1 attack (96.01%) there is a 25.46% chance to reduce R13 to a singleton. Then the attack will be 13vs1,3,1,1,1,5 which is 26,05% instead of 18.99%. So we have 96.01*25.46=24.44% chance to reduce it to a singleton. So we have 24.44*26.05+75.56*18.81=6.37+14.21=20.58%
With this clever and difficult to spot move, chances go from 18.8% to 20.6% !

Damn, ok well played.

[DoomYoshi]

so moving only 2 men up is the trick, nice one!

[Lindax]

Really? Was that the big answer? I was looking for something really intelligent. Any good escalating player would try that move.

However, no matter how you try, any given day of the week, you would not get half of green's troops without super dice. That incredible move you "came up with" may up your chances by a tiny bit, with the emphasis on "may", but you'd still need pretty magical dice.

Now, here's a question for you: Would you use auto during any of this adventure?

Lx

[Kaskavel]

I usually ignore so clueless posts, but I will make an exception here and play a multiple choice answer because I am not certain which is the best reply in each case.

Really? Was that the big answer? I was looking for something really intelligent.

a) So, you call everyone else who searched for the answer and failed stupid? Not polite
b) You are welcome to join the intelligent sector of CC and leave us in our stupidity
c) I guess you spotted it and didnt notice noone else had done the same and that is why you didn't offer the solution
d) You had found the solution but waited to see if some of the less intelligent ones would find it as well
e)I had invented relativity theory before Einstein. But I was searching for something really intelligent
f) Does this answer work if you fail to answer a question in school?

Any good escalating player would try that move.

a) Yes, but not you
b) Yes, do you know anyone?
c) Indeed, but good escalating players obviously do not read the forums and so the answer was not to be found in the topic
d) You are right! The forums exist for good players only. It is pointless to offer a simple puzzle to less experienced players who have not thought of such a possibility
e)Yes, but we must keep this move a secret to ourselves, otherwise they will all become good escalating players

However, no matter how you try, any given day of the week, you would not get half of green's troops without super dice.

a) Not any given day of the week. Since it is 20%, I would fail on Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays and succeed in Fridays
b) You are right. I should have rolled better earlier and have 20 troops instead of 13
c) You are right. Killing them all is 20% but killing half of them is super dice
d) Even if I try really hard?

That incredible move you "came up with" may up your chances by a tiny bit, with the emphasis on "may", but you'd still need pretty magical dice.

a) Thank you for calling me a good escalating player
b) Yes, that is how math works. If 18% DOES become 20%, then our chances MAY up a tiny bit
c) Makes sense. If I need magical dice, then I should probably play it the wrong way
d) I didn't "come up with" that incredible move. An intelligent and good escalating player showed it to me
e) He wasn't you of course
f) Damn, I should create an example with bigger percentage differences than 2%.

Now, here's a question for you: Would you use auto during any of this adventure?

a) Thank you for making a really serious question instead of my stupid one!
b) No, everybody knows auto rolls worse than casual assault
c) No, we must live and feel every moment of the adventure, screaming, shouting and cursing the gods of luck in every lost troop during the procudure
d) Yes, I always use auto if I intend to attack to the end and so should you as well
e) Of course not. Auto is controlled by CC, aliens and illuminati. Failure is certain

I would call a vote for most appropriate answers.