Welcome to Noobsville! GAME OVER! TOWN WINS!

[Zivel]

Okay, I wasn't going to accuse anyone, since nothing bad has even happened yet, but I guess I'll Vote: Zivel, because he wanted to lynch legionnare just because he didn't accuse anyone. We don't need that kind of thinking in this town.

I disagree, we as town, need to get conversation started and put pressure on people. Casting random votes at the start of the game is one way to do this. You will see most mafia games start with an RVS (random voting stage). This allows people to react to what is going on and allows us to question others.

Not doing this appears like you are postponing or avoiding the pressure, this is what the mafia scum would do as they don't want pressure as they might crack.

You just said that you were voting for me cause I was going to lynch legionnare, I feel the opposite. I voted for legionnare cause he could be dodging the bullet. Your quick defence of him makes me question your motives.

Now I am only on my fourth game and so please take everything I say as a noob still finding my feet.

[Zivel]

In light of the above lets not get too crazy early here... If we all vote blindly there is a very high likelyhood we vote one of our own townies out.

I'm also very newb, playing in my first game (with leg & charm & H8) which is only on day 2... So this is my second although we arent very far into the other game yet.

I'll vote closer to the end of the day, right now, its the people who haven't posted that are at the top of my list:

H8
Joak

Mafia are most likely to stay quiet early, or at least that what people said in my other game.

I think the fear of voting one of us townies out is low. There are no double votes or any quick death PRs (power roles) in this game so lets just keep it cool and if you are putting the fourth vote on someone (L1) then think carefully cause then scum could hammer them.

[H8 AFK]

I'm not going to do the 'jumping on the bandwagon' bit, I'll wait a bit....see what happens

[degaston]

Yes, this is my first game.

Right now, I would think that anyone who cast the 5th vote for someone on the first day would be highly suspicious.

But in any case, I have no valid reason at this point to suspect anyone (other than people who try to kill others for no apparent reason) , so I'll change mine back to No Vote.

[legionnare]

My message was just hi how is everyone, from games I've read this is common, I was the first to post after the mod posted the scene, so was waiting for everyone had put in some input before casting a vote.

[Iron Butterfly]

Yes, this is my first game.

Right now, I would think that anyone who cast the 5th vote for someone on the first day would be highly suspicious.

But in any case, I have no valid reason at this point to suspect anyone (other than people who try to kill others for no apparent reason) , so I'll change mine back to No Vote.

This is a game for new people. I am not new. I will be here to help and offer insight to how things are done.

Keep this in mind. This is a game of probabilities. Mafia knows who is on their team and who is Town, though they will not know if non mafia are third party such as a serial killer.

A no lynch is not recommended day one. there ARE circumstances where a no-lynch is something to be considered but generally speaking we want a lynch. Why? the only way to kill scum is to lynch them and you cant do that if you no lynch. This is only a 9 player game so yes it is a good idea to keep it slow and simple. In a game this small there will be two to three scum. I would say there are two.

[degaston]

A no lynch is not recommended day one. there ARE circumstances where a no-lynch is something to be considered but generally speaking we want a lynch. Why? the only way to kill scum is to lynch them and you cant do that if you no lynch. This is only a 9 player game so yes it is a good idea to keep it slow and simple. In a game this small there will be two to three scum. I would say there are two.

This sounds like something the mafia would say!
I don't know what happens at night, or where any information comes from about who is on the mafia, but if we just lynch someone at random on the first day without any solid information, then we have much higher chance of lynching one of our own and helping the mafia out. Then they get to kill someone at night? We're more likely to be down two instead of just one.

[MudPuppy]

This is a game for new people. I am not new. I will be here to help and offer insight to how things are done.

Keep this in mind. This is a game of probabilities. Mafia knows who is on their team and who is Town, though they will not know if non mafia are third party such as a serial killer.

A no lynch is not recommended day one. there ARE circumstances where a no-lynch is something to be considered but generally speaking we want a lynch. Why? the only way to kill scum is to lynch them and you cant do that if you no lynch. This is only a 9 player game so yes it is a good idea to keep it slow and simple. In a game this small there will be two to three scum. I would say there are two.

I'm sure IB would not be intentionally misleading, even if he were scum, but let's be clear that there are EXACTLY two scum in this game. Each game has a core of 5 VT (Vanilla Townies - i.e., no power role) and 1 Mafia Goon (the mafia version of a VT - i.e., no power role). To that we can add any of the following 6 (likely chosen at random) combos of two town & 1 mafia:

1. Mafia Roleblocker, Town 1-Shot Bulletproof, Town Jailkeeper
2. Mafia Goon, Vanilla Townie, Town Cop
3. Mafia Goon, Town Tracker, Town Doctor
4. Mafia Goon, Vanilla Townie, Town Jailkeeper
5. Mafia Roleblocker, Town Doctor, Town Cop
6. Mafia Goon, Town 1-Shot Bulletproof, Town Tracker

So, scum has a 33% chance of having a roleblocker... otherwise they have no special powers.

In the stats on the first 111 Matrix6 games on afiascum.net, only 5 resulted in a Day 1 (D1) No Lynch. So, even though I'm still coming to terms with the benefits of doing so, IB truthfully believes a D1 lynch is the best course of action even though there is only a 22% (2 in 9) of hitting scum if chosen completely randomly. Also note that scum was allowed to discuss strategy on Night 0 (i.e., they already had time to discuss a game plan)... so they may have already discussed a way to steer the vote toward a townie.

Also, for anyone who isn't aware, the game typically starts with a joke vote stage where the votes aren't at all serious and are based on silly reasons. It is a way to break the ice a bit and will eventually move into a more serious discussion of who to lynch.

[Zivel]

I don't know what happens at night, or where any information comes from about who is on the mafia, but if we just lynch someone at random on the first day without any solid information, then we have much higher chance of lynching one of our own and helping the mafia out. Then they get to kill someone at night? We're more likely to be down two instead of just one.

This is true to a point but:

At the moment the town to scum ratio is 7:2 and it takes 5 to vote off.
If we no lynch then the ratio becomes 6:2 with 5 still needed to vote off.
If we lynch then it is either 5:2 or 6:1 with 4 to vote off.
Now you see that if we lynch then it becomes 4 to vote off and that means that the scum have less power over the vote. There is more to this but the math gets tricky.

Also we have no information, the scum has it all (bastards) and so when we lynch someone we get to see their loyalty. This gives us more information and allows us to read back and see how thier interactions may affect the way we see the game.

Lastly, if we no lynch everytime for fear of not wanting to hang our own. The scum will pick us off one by one.

[Zivel]

TLDR of my post above: even number of players is bad for town

[mookiemcgee]

A no lynch is not recommended day one. there ARE circumstances where a no-lynch is something to be considered but generally speaking we want a lynch. Why? the only way to kill scum is to lynch them and you cant do that if you no lynch. This is only a 9 player game so yes it is a good idea to keep it slow and simple. In a game this small there will be two to three scum. I would say there are two.

This sounds like something the mafia would say!
I don't know what happens at night, or where any information comes from about who is on the mafia, but if we just lynch someone at random on the first day without any solid information, then we have much higher chance of lynching one of our own and helping the mafia out. Then they get to kill someone at night? We're more likely to be down two instead of just one.

Well I'd rather not vote completely randomly, and since degaston had the same thought i did, I'll vote Iron Butterfly . I will likely change my vote but for now let's see what others do...

[Iron Butterfly]

This is a game for new people. I am not new. I will be here to help and offer insight to how things are done.

Keep this in mind. This is a game of probabilities. Mafia knows who is on their team and who is Town, though they will not know if non mafia are third party such as a serial killer.

A no lynch is not recommended day one. there ARE circumstances where a no-lynch is something to be considered but generally speaking we want a lynch. Why? the only way to kill scum is to lynch them and you cant do that if you no lynch. This is only a 9 player game so yes it is a good idea to keep it slow and simple. In a game this small there will be two to three scum. I would say there are two.

I'm sure IB would not be intentionally misleading, even if he were scum, but let's be clear that there are EXACTLY two scum in this game. Each game has a core of 5 VT (Vanilla Townies - i.e., no power role) and 1 Mafia Goon (the mafia version of a VT - i.e., no power role). To that we can add any of the following 6 (likely chosen at random) combos of two town & 1 mafia:

1. Mafia Roleblocker, Town 1-Shot Bulletproof, Town Jailkeeper
2. Mafia Goon, Vanilla Townie, Town Cop
3. Mafia Goon, Town Tracker, Town Doctor
4. Mafia Goon, Vanilla Townie, Town Jailkeeper
5. Mafia Roleblocker, Town Doctor, Town Cop
6. Mafia Goon, Town 1-Shot Bulletproof, Town Tracker

So, scum has a 33% chance of having a roleblocker... otherwise they have no special powers.

In the stats on the first 111 Matrix6 games on afiascum.net, only 5 resulted in a Day 1 (D1) No Lynch. So, even though I'm still coming to terms with the benefits of doing so, IB truthfully believes a D1 lynch is the best course of action even though there is only a 22% (2 in 9) of hitting scum if chosen completely randomly. Also note that scum was allowed to discuss strategy on Night 0 (i.e., they already had time to discuss a game plan)... so they may have already discussed a way to steer the vote toward a townie.

Also, for anyone who isn't aware, the game typically starts with a joke vote stage where the votes aren't at all serious and are based on silly reasons. It is a way to break the ice a bit and will eventually move into a more serious discussion of who to lynch.

No...my alignment has nothing to do with my statement

[Iron Butterfly]

lol and for the record I missed the setups. So my bad.

[Lootifer]

Vote count:

charm (0):
Zivel (2/L-3): MudPuppy, degaston
MudPuppy (2/L-3): Charm, Iron Butterfly
H8 AFK (0):
joak (0):
mookiemcgee (0):
degaston (0):
legionnare (1/L-4): Zivel
Iron Butterfly (1/L-4): Mookiemcgee

No Lynch (0):

Not voting: charm, H8 AFK, joak, legionnare

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline is, like, ages away

[Zivel]

Hey! Dega Unvoted me.

[joak]

Sorry I've no been aboot was out on the town celebraton ma daughters birthday ..early days yet and not sussed anybody out yet so I will just be taking it in just now

[legionnare]

Hey! Dega Unvoted me.

Nope Dega's vote is still on you, I unvoted you.

[degaston]

Hey! Dega Unvoted me.

Nope Dega's vote is still on you, I unvoted you.

Nope, I switched to no vote yesterday. http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=213&t=203426&start=45#p4456546

So, this is the game? We randomly accuse each other and see what the responses are like? Okay, I Vote: Legionnare, because he wasn't paying close enough attention to see that I unvoted Zivel.

[charm]

Mookie you need a cooler Avatar!
Zivel has a really cool Avatar - so he must be town.
Lootier - you have great pic!

Unvote MudPuppy

Vote Mookie until he gets a cooler Avatar!

[Iron Butterfly]

Hey! Dega Unvoted me.

Nope Dega's vote is still on you, I unvoted you.

Nope, I switched to no vote yesterday. http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=213&t=203426&start=45#p4456546

So, this is the game? We randomly accuse each other and see what the responses are like? Okay, I Vote: Legionnare, because he wasn't paying close enough attention to see that I unvoted Zivel.

NO. The idea is not to randomly vote someone.

Keep this in mind, you learn mafia by playing mafia. There is no way around it. It's like riding a bike. You can tell somone how to do it and what needs to be done but they need to acquire the skill.

This is why we traditionally joke vote to start rather then get ohh so serious by diving right in with accusations. Eventually someone will say something and someone will feel that what was said was "scummy"

Lets take Mookie for example. He voted me because he felt what I said about a no lynch was scummy. His reasoning, his thought mirrored another players, so hes going to join the wagon. I find it odd that instead of offering his own rationale he piggy backed on Degaston's rather then form his own opinion. I also find it odd he hedged his bets.

Mookie has no problem keeping his vote on me if that's what others would want. He is also saying he will probably remove it.
The genesis of the vote was that I suggested that a no-lynch on day one was not good for Town and Degaston said, "That sounds like something scum would say".

So let me ask you both, Degaston and Mookie...In a game this small why do you believe no-lynch would be in Towns best interest? Second question. What other comments do you believe Mafia would make and better yet What actions do you think mafia could make that would perhaps betray their enlightenment??

FOS Mookie.

[Iron Butterfly]

enlightenment??=alighnment

[degaston]

I'm not intending that anything I say at this point be taken too seriously. I have no reason to really want Legionnare to be lynched any more than anyone else, but at this point I see no danger of that actually happening, and would withdraw my vote if it looked like that were about to happen.

If you think that piggybacking on someone else's rationale looks suspicious, then I could say "well, he certainly could have come up with his own reason if he was worried about looking suspicious", or if he did come up with his own reason, then one could say "it looks like he's trying too hard not to look suspicious". You can play that game as many levels deep as you like, and go full Vizzini, but I don't think it gets you anywhere at this point.

As for not lynching anyone the first round, If you guess wrong and lynch a townie (78% chance) and then they kill someone and the number of votes required is reduced to 4, then you've just given the mafia 50% of the vote needed to lynch the next person instead of just 40%. Then on the next round, you can lynch someone and after they kill someone, it still results in 4 votes required, compared to if you guess wrong a second time, then you're down to 3 votes.

I don't know what actions the mafia is allowed to take, so I can't really answer your second question at this point.

[Iron Butterfly]

I'm not intending that anything I say at this point be taken too seriously. I have no reason to really want Legionnare to be lynched any more than anyone else, but at this point I see no danger of that actually happening, and would withdraw my vote if it looked like that were about to happen.

If you think that piggybacking on someone else's rationale looks suspicious, then I could say "well, he certainly could have come up with his own reason if he was worried about looking suspicious", or if he did come up with his own reason, then one could say "it looks like he's trying too hard not to look suspicious". You can play that game as many levels deep as you like, and go full Vizzini, but I don't think it gets you anywhere at this point.

As for not lynching anyone the first round, If you guess wrong and lynch a townie (78% chance) and then they kill someone and the number of votes required is reduced to 4, then you've just given the mafia 50% of the vote needed to lynch the next person instead of just 40%. Then on the next round, you can lynch someone and after they kill someone, it still results in 4 votes required, compared to if you guess wrong a second time, then you're down to 3 votes.

I don't know what actions the mafia is allowed to take, so I can't really answer your second question at this point.

With limited information day one more often then not a townie is lynched. By choosing not to lynch you give mafia a free night kill. You come into the day no wiser then before and down a Town member. As I stated earlier this is a game of probabilities as well. If we mislynch day one and mafia gets a night kill we are now down 5 to 2. What Town gains is information. We now have a smaller pool, we may have a better understanding of the setup AND most importantly we may be able to garner information from voting patterns.

With a no lynch you gain nothing except the possibility of Town not being mislynched.

[Lootifer]

Vote count:

charm (0):
Zivel (1/L-4): MudPuppy
MudPuppy (1/L-4): Iron Butterfly
H8 AFK (0):
joak (0):
mookiemcgee (1/L-4): charm
degaston (0):
legionnare (2/L-3): Zivel, degaston
Iron Butterfly (1/L-4): Mookiemcgee

No Lynch (0):

Not voting: charm, H8 AFK, joak, legionnare

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline is, like, ages away

[Zivel]

I'm not intending that anything I say at this point be taken too seriously. I have no reason to really want Legionnare to be lynched any more than anyone else, but at this point I see no danger of that actually happening, and would withdraw my vote if it looked like that were about to happen.

In mafia, everything you say will be taken seriuosly, even the first RVS votes. A wise plyer told me that some of the most important votes are the first. We have nothing to go on so we have to use what you say to judge.

The first day is hard cause what we get is limited info but we have to do with it what we can. Like IB said, a no lynch is not preferable.

I liked that question IB so let hear what you think a mafia would do on first day?