A Sensible Question about the Dice

Talk about all things related to Conquer Club

Moderator: Community Team

Forum rules
Please read the community guidelines before posting.
Post Reply
User avatar
BigBallinStalin
Posts: 5151
Joined: Sun Oct 26, 2008 10:23 pm
Location: crying into the dregs of an empty bottle of own-brand scotch on the toilet having a dump in Dagenham
Contact:

A Sensible Question about the Dice

Post by BigBallinStalin »

According to degaston's study, there's a discrepancy in the outcomes of rolls across individuals. Some mods have acknowledged that the dice are not random, but the lack of this fairness affects everyone equally; therefore, reform is not quite necessary.

Question: don't certain individuals roll more 6s than others--acc. to degaston's graph? If so, then how are the dice fair?

For example, if I tend to roll slightly more 5 and 6s than 1s and 2s, then how is this not a problem?





Image
Last edited by BigBallinStalin on Tue Feb 04, 2014 8:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
nàme
Posts: 166
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2009 12:32 am
Gender: Male

Re: A Sensible Question about the Dice

Post by nàme »

Well, you could roll 60 thousand dice and get 10,100 fours, fives, and sixes, and 9900 ones, twos, and threes. You are rolling slightly more of the good dice, but it is approximately normal. If it was fixed so that over the next 300 rolls you would only rolls the low numbers, then it wouldn't be random.

Random isn't balancing out numbers from the past, but rather, it's about being unbiased towards them. Doesn't matter how bad your previous roll was, the next one can be better, worse, or the same.

If you also roll more good numbers, and I roll them at the same rate, then the dice would also be "fair", but not considered true dice as the attack odds are slightly off. But that is a minute detail which has been in the game for years. Adapt or die.
User avatar
Metsfanmax
Posts: 6722
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2007 11:01 pm
Gender: Male

Re: A Sensible Question about the Dice

Post by Metsfanmax »

BigBallinStalin wrote:According to degaston's study, there's a discrepancy in the outcomes of rolls across individuals. Some mods have acknowledged that the dice are not random, but the lack of this fairness affects everyone equally; therefore, reform is not quite necessary.

Question: don't certain individuals roll more 6s than others--acc. to degaston's graph? If so, then how are the dice fair?

For example, if I tend to roll slightly more 5 and 6s than 1s and 2s, then how is this not a problem?


We would have people rolling more 5s and 6s than 1s/2s in either scenario, and it would still be fair.
User avatar
BigBallinStalin
Posts: 5151
Joined: Sun Oct 26, 2008 10:23 pm
Location: crying into the dregs of an empty bottle of own-brand scotch on the toilet having a dump in Dagenham
Contact:

Re: A Sensible Question about the Dice

Post by BigBallinStalin »

Metsfanmax wrote:
BigBallinStalin wrote:According to degaston's study, there's a discrepancy in the outcomes of rolls across individuals. Some mods have acknowledged that the dice are not random, but the lack of this fairness affects everyone equally; therefore, reform is not quite necessary.

Question: don't certain individuals roll more 6s than others--acc. to degaston's graph? If so, then how are the dice fair?

For example, if I tend to roll slightly more 5 and 6s than 1s and 2s, then how is this not a problem?


We would have people rolling more 5s and 6s than 1s/2s in either scenario, and it would still be fair.


But if you look at degaston's graph, the distribution isn't the same for everyone, so... how is that fair?
User avatar
Metsfanmax
Posts: 6722
Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2007 11:01 pm
Gender: Male

Re: A Sensible Question about the Dice

Post by Metsfanmax »

BigBallinStalin wrote:
Metsfanmax wrote:
BigBallinStalin wrote:According to degaston's study, there's a discrepancy in the outcomes of rolls across individuals. Some mods have acknowledged that the dice are not random, but the lack of this fairness affects everyone equally; therefore, reform is not quite necessary.

Question: don't certain individuals roll more 6s than others--acc. to degaston's graph? If so, then how are the dice fair?

For example, if I tend to roll slightly more 5 and 6s than 1s and 2s, then how is this not a problem?


We would have people rolling more 5s and 6s than 1s/2s in either scenario, and it would still be fair.


But if you look at degaston's graph, the distribution isn't the same for everyone, so... how is that fair?


The distribution will never be the same for everyone. That's the point of randomness: if you have a finite sample, some people are going to have more 6's than 1's, and some will have the opposite.

In degaston's model, everyone is rolling from the same non-uniform distribution, which means that there's no inherent unfairness. It just means that, due to random chance, some people got more of the 6s (which may be more or less abundant than 1s) and some didn't. That would happen even if the list is perfectly uniform, all the time.
loutil
Posts: 786
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 2:40 pm
Gender: Male

Re: A Sensible Question about the Dice

Post by loutil »

The "flaw" in the dice appears to be the overall lack of rolling 1's relative to other numbers. That is consistent amongst all CC players. The variance of the other numbers is just that...variance. You will always have statistical anomaly's in large samples but when everyone has the same then it is an issue. With respect to fairness, we are all in the same boat. However, I would suggest it puts a tilt toward defense and would suggest that the odds calculators would be wrong on attack probability. With fewer 1's being rolled there is a statistical increase in the probability of the defender getting a tie on any particular roll.
Image
premio53
Posts: 256
Joined: Sun Jul 29, 2007 9:09 pm

Re: A Sensible Question about the Dice

Post by premio53 »

AAFitz
Posts: 7270
Joined: Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:47 am
Gender: Male
Location: On top of the World 2.1

Re: A Sensible Question about the Dice

Post by AAFitz »

BigBallinStalin wrote:
Metsfanmax wrote:
BigBallinStalin wrote:According to degaston's study, there's a discrepancy in the outcomes of rolls across individuals. Some mods have acknowledged that the dice are not random, but the lack of this fairness affects everyone equally; therefore, reform is not quite necessary.

Question: don't certain individuals roll more 6s than others--acc. to degaston's graph? If so, then how are the dice fair?

For example, if I tend to roll slightly more 5 and 6s than 1s and 2s, then how is this not a problem?


We would have people rolling more 5s and 6s than 1s/2s in either scenario, and it would still be fair.


But if you look at degaston's graph, the distribution isn't the same for everyone, so... how is that fair?


Are you actually suggesting that random is supposed to be fair?
I'm Spanking Monkey now....err...I mean I'm a Spanking Monkey now...that shoots milk
Too much. I know.
User avatar
rhp 1
Posts: 1285
Joined: Fri Sep 14, 2007 5:19 pm
Location: IF YOU HAVE NO CLUE WHAT YOU'RE DOING, IT IS BEST TO DO IT....... QUICKLY

Re: A Sensible Question about the Dice

Post by rhp 1 »

once again... random, unpredictable, and fair are all unique concepts... the dice can be fair or not fair and that discussion is a bit too nebulous for me, and I wouldn't care to take that much time thinking about it... they can also be unpredictable (which they are). But they are not random.. dice values chosen from a finite sample, regardless of the size of that sample cannot be, by definition, random..
User avatar
BigBallinStalin
Posts: 5151
Joined: Sun Oct 26, 2008 10:23 pm
Location: crying into the dregs of an empty bottle of own-brand scotch on the toilet having a dump in Dagenham
Contact:

Re: A Sensible Question about the Dice

Post by BigBallinStalin »

Thanks, everyone--except Chocoboy, for the useful comments.

I'll be forwarding 3 violet stars to y'all's accounts. Keep an eye on your PayPal.
Post Reply

Return to “Conquer Club Discussion”