3 vs. 1 / Win or lose?

[Jork]

It "seems" like I usually lose, attacking 1 army with my 3, a disproportionate
number of times: i.e., I lose 2 and do not make the kill.

Just out of curiosity I thought I'd pose this question to all!

How "does it seem" you all fare with this scenario, most of the time?

Inquiring minds want to know?

[alex_white101]

i have the dice analyzer. do u? in 18000 dice with 2 vs 1's i win 50.5% of the time. this should be 57.87 % its sad

[Captain Crash]

Well, according to the dice analyzer, out of 2,628 times I've been in this situation, I have won 65.87%.
This is 0.1 percentage points less than the figure statistics and probability would suggest.

So I have to say I generally win but not quite as much as I should!

[Kahless]

Depends how desperate you are for the territory. If it's to complete a continent, break up an opponets continent, or eliminate someone with 5 cards I normally lose, other time's I win

[alex_white101]

Well, according to the dice analyzer, out of 2,628 times I've been in this situation, I have won 65.87%.
This is 0.1 percentage points less than the figure statistics and probability would suggest.

So I have to say I generally win but not quite as much as I should!

this is incorrect crash, the 3 vs 1 you took the stats from is actually 4 vs 1 as you are getting 3 die to roll, the stat u should be looking at is the 2 vs 1, as when u attack with 2 armies u only get 2 dice..........

[AAFitz]

mine werent bad...57.2%, not quite ideal, but not as tragic as 50%

[alex_white101]

my dice analyzer tells me that I have won 1125 of 1735 (64.84%) 3v1 battles. that is (-1.13%) below the expected figure, which is close enough for me

see my post above

[poo-maker]

I win 52% of the time... i would expect more..

[Captain Crash]

Well, according to the dice analyzer, out of 2,628 times I've been in this situation, I have won 65.87%.
This is 0.1 percentage points less than the figure statistics and probability would suggest.

So I have to say I generally win but not quite as much as I should!

this is incorrect crash, the 3 vs 1 you took the stats from is actually 4 vs 1 as you are getting 3 die to roll, the stat u should be looking at is the 2 vs 1, as when u attack with 2 armies u only get 2 dice..........

I thought he wanted 3 dice vs 1 die...anyway for 2 dice vs 1 die:
226 occasions, 53.54% win ...nearly 5 points down!!!

OMG the dice aren't random....change the code, change the code!!!!!

[detlef]

According to the dice analyzer, my luck appears to be a bit below average but rolling 2 dice v 1 is one of the situations where I'm luckier than I should be. Mind you, I don't do it often and haven't been running the analyzer for long so it may not be very representative.

[Aegnor]

174 occasions, 59.2%. not bad.

[alex_white101]

ive given up doing it now, need at least 3 dice to attack with. or i lose

[tahitiwahini]

This is one of those times when there's confusion about the number of armies involved in an attack and the number of dice involved in an attack.

The attacker throws one less than the number of armies in the attacking country (up to a maximum of three) and the defender throws once die for each army in the defending country (up to a maximum of two).

So, the 3v1 army attack, translates into a 2v1 dice attack. The expected outcome of the initial attack is:

Defender loses one army: 57.87%
Attacker loses one army: 42.13%

If the attack is pressed the expected ultimate outcome is:

Defender loses one army: 75.42438%
Defender loses no armies: 24.57562%

Attacker loses two armies: 24.57562%
Attacker loses one army: 17.55401%
Attacker loses no armies: 57.87037%

Territory is conquered: 75.42438%
Territory is not conquered: 24.57562%

Personally, I do 3.77% worse than expected on 2v1 dice attacks, but I still win 54.1% of the time losing only 45.9% of the time.

[Kahless]

I thought he wanted 3 dice vs 1 die

I'm sure he does, but he's only allowed 2

[alex_white101]

I thought he wanted 3 dice vs 1 die

I'm sure he does, but he's only allowed 2

hahahaha i actually laughed out loud at that

[Nephilim]

i'm with jork. i don't care what my dice analyzer says, it seems like every time i need a kill w/ 3v2 or 3v1, i lose all.