Which number do you roll the most?

[AslanTheKing]

2 , opps same

[shoop76]

Also 2, opponents 4.

[rhp 1]

i don't care what my opponent rolls, or what I roll now that I think about it...


I'm still going to win...

[BigBallinStalin]

Very interesting...

In summary, the trend so far seems to be like this:

2 and 4 are most rolled
followed by 3 and 5, then 6
and 1 least rolled by a wide margin

WHY IS THIS HAPPENING!?!?!?

[Jdsizzleslice]

It is definitely intriguing, nonetheless...

[NoSurvivors]

4's for me and opponents..

[AAFitz]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rollin%27_in_My_5.0

For those that know the song, the description is pretty damn funny.

I actually roll 4's though

[macbone]

My most common dice are 5s, and my opponents most often roll 2s.

Ahhh, the joys of mod dice. =)

[Jdsizzleslice]

My most common dice are 5s, and my opponents most often roll 2s.

Ahhh, the joys of mod dice. =)

Lucky.

[degaston]

Here are the dice stats for the five players with the most completed games:



It looks like 1's are showing up about .26% less often than they should. It's not a huge difference, but it definitely looks like a pattern. From what I've seen, it's the same for every player with a large sample size, so there's probably no "favoritism" going on, but I think that this would make the battle outcomes slightly different from the expected win/loss percentages.

I didn't do the math, but logically it's as if the players are using 5-sided dice .26% of the time. Having fewer numbers to chose from will slightly increase the number of ties, which would favor the defender.

I think this should be fixed ASAP.

[Agent 86]

Thanks to the community my thread seems to show some real problems with the random dice

Fantastic graph degaston!!

Here are the dice stats for the five players with the most completed games:



Also this from MB

Here's something curious... for ALL of you, except for one case, you AND your opponents roll 1s the least. I've checked out about 10 other members (inluding mageplunka69 because he has played the most games and has the largest roll sample size) and EVERY SINGLE ONE of them roll 1s the least as do their opponents. And the one exception to this is very close, with a low sample size.

CC's dice - not as random as they claim?

I think you're seriously onto something here.

I made a graph using mageplunka's attacking dice rolls, and put on the average line with +/-1 standard deviation. That's not precisely how standard deviation should be used, and it's been a long time since my last stats class, but it gives a nice window of where the results should be. Numbers across the bottom correspond to the number on the dice face (ignore the last column), and the numbers up the left axis are simply how many times each number has been rolled:

[ManBungalow]

Here are the dice stats for the five players with the most completed games:



It looks like 1's are showing up about .26% less often than they should. It's not a huge difference, but it definitely looks like a pattern. From what I've seen, it's the same for every player with a large sample size, so there's probably no "favoritism" going on, but I think that this would make the battle outcomes slightly different from the expected win/loss percentages.

I didn't do the math, but logically it's as if the players are using 5-sided dice .26% of the time. Having fewer numbers to chose from will slightly increase the number of ties, which would favor the defender.

I think this should be fixed ASAP.

This is a lovely graph, thank you.

[rdsrds2120]

I'll look to see if there's a technical reason that 1 is arbitrarily lower than the rest, but I performed a Chi-Square goodness of fit test for each of the 5 players rolls and that number of rolls isn't statistically significant. The p-value was essentially 0 each time...

For non stats people: Each set is, indivdually, within the margin of error to not cause alarm within the realm of randomness, but since the dice are read from a finite sheet randomly, perhaps there are a fewer number of ones than the rest.

BMO

[Agent 86]

Thankyou for looking into it..1 is rolled less by everyone on the site. Cause for concern, I just keep rolling 2's more than everything else by some margin. Combined with horrible drops I will never advance past colonel with the current maps I play, currently only strategy keeps me at major

[degaston]

Thankyou for looking into it..1 is rolled less by everyone on the site. Cause for concern, I just keep rolling 2's more than everything else by some margin. Combined with horrible drops I will never advance past colonel with the current maps I play, currently only strategy keeps me at major

If one of your dice was replaced with a five sided die with 2 through 6 on it once every 133 attacks and once every 200 times you defend, and the same thing happened to every player, I don't really think it would affect anyone's score very much.

But as a programmer, I find it slightly disturbing.

[BigBallinStalin]

Here are the dice stats for the five players with the most completed games:

[img]http://i614.photobucket.com/albums/tt230/degaston/Public/DiceStats_zps4a337798.jpg[/img

It looks like 1's are showing up about .26% less often than they should. It's not a huge difference, but it definitely looks like a pattern. From what I've seen, it's the same for every player with a large sample size, so there's probably no "favoritism" going on, but I think that this would make the battle outcomes slightly different from the expected win/loss percentages.

I didn't do the math, but logically it's as if the players are using 5-sided dice .26% of the time. Having fewer numbers to chose from will slightly increase the number of ties, which would favor the defender.

I think this should be fixed ASAP.

This is a lovely graph, thank you.

It is, but don't be upset. Yours had CHARM! And a creative demonstration of standard deviation!


Here, let me apply my econometric skills to improve your graph:

[BigBallinStalin]

Thankyou for looking into it..1 is rolled less by everyone on the site. Cause for concern, I just keep rolling 2's more than everything else by some margin. Combined with horrible drops I will never advance past colonel with the current maps I play, currently only strategy keeps me at major

If one of your dice was replaced with a five sided die with 2 through 6 on it once every 133 attacks and once every 200 times you defend, and the same thing happened to every player, I don't really think it would affect anyone's score very much.

But as a programmer, I find it slightly disturbing.

Do programmers have a fetish for perfection?

or does degaston have a fetish for perfection?

[gradybridges]

assault 3, 4, 2, 6, 5, 1

defend 4, 5, 3, 6, 2, 1

All 4, 3, 2, 6, 5, 1

[degaston]

Do programmers have a fetish for perfection?

Maybe the best one's do.

or does degaston have a fetish for perfection?

No, I wouldn't go that far, but I can't ignore a consistent bias in the pseudo-random number generator.

[iAmCaffeine]

4 for opponents and myself.

[Agent 86]

Damn, why did I start this thread..I'm now rolling more 1's than ever before

[BigBallinStalin]

Do programmers have a fetish for perfection?

Maybe the best one's do.

or does degaston have a fetish for perfection?

No, I wouldn't go that far, but I can't ignore a consistent bias in the pseudo-random number generator.

How could this bias be corrected?

What even causes it?

[trinicardinal]

assault I roll 2's the most, very closely followed by 5's and 6's 1's are the least rolled but the difference between the most rolled and least rolled is 908 rolls.

defense I roll 6's the most followed by 5's and 4's. Again 1's are the least (smaller dfference of 564 between highest and lowest rolls)

my opponents mostly roll 3's on assault and 4's on defense it seems. 1's are the lowest on both categories as well

[degaston]

How could this bias be corrected?
What even causes it?

...the dice are read from a finite sheet randomly, perhaps there are a fewer number of ones than the rest.

This sounds like they have a long mixed-up list of numbers 1-6 from which they randomly choose one for each roll. (I don't know how that's supposed to make it more random than their random number generator, but maybe there's some other reason for it.) If all of the numbers do not appear exactly the same number of times in the list, then you could get this result. Or there could be a problem with the random number generator that makes it slightly less likely to choose certain locations in the list.

[Agent 86]

Yeah, well the program has seriously taken my thread to heart..wow in 25 rolls in defense an average of 1.4..now what's going on

Confirms to me that my 1 v 1 days are over. I now only play team games in the future