You can do it too! A simple experiment with the dice

[Pilate]

hey!

Now, ANYONE can analysis the dice. All you need is an ability to count and look at numbers.

We'll start with a simple case.

When you attack 3 dice vs 1 (i.e. when you have 4 or more troops attacking 1 single troop), you should expect to win 66% of the time (don't ask me how i got this lol). That means that you should win 2 territories for every troop that you lose. For example, WIN WIN - LOSE. LOSE WIN WIN. WIN LOSE WIN. WIN WIN WIN WIN WIN WIN LOSE LOSE LOSE

Keep track of your wins versus your loses. Divide the number of wins versus loses.

e.g. 100 wins and 70 loses. 100/70 = 1.43
Since 1.43 is significantly lower than 2.00 (your expected value), the dice are skewed for defense.

e.g. 100 wins and 30 loses. 100/30 = 3.33
Since 3.33 is significantly higher than 2.00, the dice are skewed for offense.

have fun!

[joeyjordison]

i hav tried this before and on some games i hav ended up with averages as low as 0.9! this is obviously a rounded figure but that illustrates the point that there must b something wrong with the dice. this has been raised with lack on numerous occasions but no1 seem to know y this happens

[areyouincahoots]

oh...head...hurts...too...much...math...numbers...odds...pain...

[MrsMad]

Hey my luck analyzer will be done soon and then we'll know!

[zip_disk]

Wikipedia dice odds

[dragonfly]

Conquer Club - An online multiplayer variation. Offers player rankings, individual & team games, a vibrant community and an extensive array of game styles & maps. Free to play.

thats Wikipedia's definition of Conquerclub. who wrote that?
vibrant community..i like that.

[Jota]

I wonder what "vibrant" is a euphemism for.

[wcaclimbing]

wow... math and numbers is a school thing and this is SUMMER!!!!!



at least for most people its summer break

[Pedronicus]

I have analysed my attacking dice and I didn't need to count or write anything down.

i killed a player and took 5 cards off him, gave in 2 sets of three and put on 35 & 40 armies. the last player had 1 bit on approx 30-34 teritorries.

normally, this would be a breeze, but I threw utter shit every attack and only scraped through.

So - if you want to win.. make sure you have at least 3x the defending armies and keep your fingers crossed

[MrsMad]

I have analysed my attacking dice and I didn't need to count or write anything down.

i killed a player and took 5 cards off him, gave in 2 sets of three and put on 35 & 40 armies. the last player had 1 bit on approx 30-34 teritorries.

normally, this would be a breeze, but I threw utter shit every attack and only scraped through.

This is why I started the luck analyzer, becuase it seems like the luck is in favour of the defender too much. Lets do the math...

You have 75 armies and are trying to take out 1 army on 33 territories.
You should lose 1 army every 3 throws of the dice, which means you should lose approx 11 armies when taking out 33 armies. Plus you need to leave 1 Behind on each country.

So 75 - 11 - 33 = 31 armies. But then you still need to take a turn on the 11 which you lost meaning that you should lose another 4 shakes approx = 27. Then of those four, you lose 1 again. SO your down to 26.

So you should roughly be left with 26. Although it can be done more accurately by a statistician.

Luck analyzer will be available as an add-on soon, which will show you dice distribution, battle outcomes (compared to what the average is) and a luck score.

[Pedronicus]

What happens if your Luck Analyser proves what were are seeing with our own eyes?

[MrsMad]

good question

But i think the main thing is that the luck analyzer will show how unlucky/luck y you are in one particular game. Hopefuly we will see that the luck does indeed pan out correctly in the long run

[juventino]

well.. just a quick question, what is best? attackor defence? like 10 vs 10?

[Tr0y]

anything greater than 5... attacker has the advantage.

so 10v10

attacker

[sully800]

Unless you get to 3v3 or 2v2 etc. Then the defender has a distinct advantage. So attackers only gain their advantage as the numbers grow larger than 4v4. I wonder at what point the attacker has the statistical advantage?

[lord vetinari]

When you attack 3 dice vs 1 (i.e. when you have 4 or more troops attacking 1 single troop), you should expect to win 66% of the time (don't ask me how i got this lol). e.g. 100 wins and 30 loses. 100/30 = 3.33

don't call my a stupid know-it-all, but is the winning percentage not 72,6%?

makes no difference? oh yes, it makes!!

[sully800]

No, its not.

[lord vetinari]

*calculates again*
mmmh. yes you are right. i seem to have miscalculated .
sorry for that .

[sully800]

It's all good. I'm not much of a man for statistics myself....calc has always been my better side.

[dussle]

Its better to use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost. For support as opposed to illumination.

[reverend_kyle]

if your tied no matter what it is defenders advantage because the odds of 2-0 0-2 and 1-1 are all the same in 2 of those scenarios defender wins becuase if they are equalizing all the total armies it brings it closer to 3 v 3 etc...

[Pedronicus]

Game 36456
Attacker rolls 2 5 2 Defender rolls 2 2
Attacker rolls 1 1 Defender rolls 5 6
Attacker rolls 3 3 3 Defender rolls 4 1
Attacker rolls 3 3 6 Defender rolls 1 3
Attacker rolls 6 2 1 Defender rolls 3
Attacker rolls 3 6 5 Defender rolls 1 5
Attacker rolls 2 3 1 Defender rolls 4 6
Attacker rolls 4 6 4 Defender rolls 4 2
Attacker rolls 5 6 3 Defender rolls 1
Attacker rolls 3 6 2 Defender rolls 6 1
Attacker rolls 6 6 2 Defender rolls 5 5
Attacker rolls 5 6 5 Defender rolls 6 2
Attacker rolls 3 1 5 Defender rolls 4 3
Attacker rolls 2 2 1 Defender rolls 5 5
Attacker rolls 5 2 4 Defender rolls 6 3
Attacker rolls 1 3 2 Defender rolls 5 6
Attacker rolls 4 2 5 Defender rolls 6 3
Attacker rolls 4 5 2 Defender rolls 6 6
Attacker rolls 1 5 3 Defender rolls 3 4
Attacker rolls 5 6 6 Defender rolls 4
Attacker rolls 3 6 6 Defender rolls 4
Attacker rolls 2 5 1 Defender rolls 4 5
Attacker rolls 3 4 5 Defender rolls 3 6
Attacker rolls 2 1 3 Defender rolls 5 1
Attacker rolls 1 2 4 Defender rolls 1 3
Attacker rolls 3 4 4 Defender rolls 4 3
Attacker rolls 3 3 5 Defender rolls 4 3
Attacker rolls 5 4 3 Defender rolls 2 4
Attacker rolls 4 6 5 Defender rolls 5 3
Attacker rolls 6 3 3 Defender rolls 1 3
Attacker rolls 3 1 4 Defender rolls 3 4
Attacker rolls 6 2 3 Defender rolls 2 6
Attacker rolls 2 3 1 Defender rolls 5 3
Attacker rolls 2 2 6 Defender rolls 3 3
Attacker rolls 3 5 Defender rolls 5
Attacker rolls 3 Defender rolls 5
Attacker rolls 1 3 6 Defender rolls 2
Attacker rolls 1 3 1 Defender rolls 2 6
Attacker rolls 6 4 3 Defender rolls 5 2
Attacker rolls 5 5 1 Defender rolls 4 5
Attacker rolls 2 6 6 Defender rolls 4 2
Attacker rolls 1 6 5 Defender rolls 2
Attacker rolls 6 3 6 Defender rolls 5
Attacker rolls 2 5 6 Defender rolls 4
Attacker rolls 2 4 6 Defender rolls 4
Attacker rolls 3 4 6 Defender rolls 3 5
Attacker rolls 2 1 4 Defender rolls 4 3
Attacker rolls 5 4 3 Defender rolls 6 1
Attacker rolls 4 2 6 Defender rolls 1 3
Attacker rolls 3 1 4 Defender rolls 2 5
Attacker rolls 4 2 1 Defender rolls 5 3
Attacker rolls 2 2 1 Defender rolls 4 1
Attacker rolls 3 5 3 Defender rolls 3 1
Attacker rolls 4 2 4 Defender rolls 2 4
Attacker rolls 6 5 3 Defender rolls 5 1
Attacker rolls 1 3 6 Defender rolls 6
Attacker rolls 5 1 1 Defender rolls 2
Attacker rolls 1 2 6 Defender rolls 4 6
Attacker rolls 1 1 1 Defender rolls 4 1

[Stopper]

Its better to use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost. For support as opposed to illumination.

Haha, I haven't heard that one before - that's a good one.

[dussle]

Thanks, i forget where I heard it, but it make me chuckle.

[sully800]

if your tied no matter what it is defenders advantage because the odds of 2-0 0-2 and 1-1 are all the same in 2 of those scenarios defender wins becuase if they are equalizing all the total armies it brings it closer to 3 v 3 etc...

No, the odds are not the same for attacker winning/defender winning/tie when its 3vs2 dice.

Its 37% chance that the attacker wins
29% that the defender wins
and 34% that its a tie.

So the more men each country has when they are equal (ie 15v15 instead of 10v10) the better the odds are that the attacker will win.