Best Luck Ever

tahitiwahini · Post by **tahitiwahini** » Wed Apr 25, 2007 5:50 am

redi5e wrote:22 vs 22 and i ended up with 12 left. i won the game after those rolls

The probability of this happening was 7.15838%

tahitiwahini · Post by **tahitiwahini** » Wed Apr 25, 2007 5:51 am

SkyCaptain wrote:Lol, i was watching my brother play, and he killed a 21 with a 26 and still had 15 left. This was in indochina against someone who was about to win. Actually, he had me click because I'm luckier. Then he killed like 8 more territories and only lost like 1 or 2.

The probability of this happening was 0.22467%.

tahitiwahini · Post by **tahitiwahini** » Wed Apr 25, 2007 5:54 am

biteme143 wrote:I had 26 against 38 and I was left with 10 hell yea and I won the game in the end! Auto-attack is now my friend at first I didn't trust it!

The probability of this happening was 2.40185%.

tahitiwahini · Post by **tahitiwahini** » Wed Apr 25, 2007 6:01 am

Psilocbin wrote:Some guy had 43v30 attacking me, soon it was 1v6. Another time I had 13 guys and didn't lose one for about 10 rolls.

The probability of surviving a 43v30 attack and still having at least 6 defenders is 1.11709%

The probability of attacking 43v30 and losing all but one of your attackers is 0.30790%.

tahitiwahini · Post by **tahitiwahini** » Wed Apr 25, 2007 6:04 am

Lev306 wrote:20 v 4 attacking me. I won out in the end with 1 v 3 =O.

The probability of surviving a 20v4 attack with 3 armies left is 0.00874%.

The probability of attacking 20v4 and losing all but one army is 0.01257%

tahitiwahini · Post by **tahitiwahini** » Wed Apr 25, 2007 6:09 am

plysprtz wrote:i had 10 he had 18 i won with 9 left i then attacked his one for siam and then lost it all

The probability of the first attack happening is 0.01353%.

The probability of the second attack happening is 0.3815%.

So you were lucky, the first outcome was expected to be more rare than the second outcome.

Mysty · Post by **Mysty** » Wed Apr 25, 2007 10:31 am

LOL... thank you mr. mathmagician

i figured out, but that's just my luck i guess, that when i'm not outnumbering the defender with at least twice as much (starting from 2 defenders) i end up losing the battle like 80% of the time, small battles mostly... what are the odds on that i wonder

Huge battles turn out even in my experience... 50v50 i almost never have more than 10 left (with or without the auto attack button)... same goes for the defender, though i had a very bad xperience once! I attacked a dude with 76 against his 89 and was down to 1 but still faced 63 of his *bummer*... if i'd won i probably would've won the game, now the game's still on

detlef · Post by **detlef** » Wed Apr 25, 2007 11:03 am

Mysty wrote:LOL... thank you mr. mathmagician

i figured out, but that's just my luck i guess, that when i'm not outnumbering the defender with at least twice as much (starting from 2 defenders) i end up losing the battle like 80% of the time, small battles mostly... what are the odds on that i wonder

Huge battles turn out even in my experience... 50v50 i almost never have more than 10 left (with or without the auto attack button)... same goes for the defender, though i had a very bad xperience once! I attacked a dude with 76 against his 89 and was down to 1 but still faced 63 of his *bummer*... if i'd won i probably would've won the game, now the game's still on

You should download the dice analyzer to see if that is really the case. I think most tend to overestimate their bad dice and forget the times they take out a big country without many losses. I know that I do.

stevieQ · Post by **stevieQ** » Wed Apr 25, 2007 11:23 am

I once went 24 vs. 6 from Siam to get into Australia and take a player out. He had one in each of his Aussie Countries and his 6 in Indonesia.

Well, to make a long story short.... I ended up with 1 army in Siam and he ended up with 3 armies in Indonesia after my attack. Gotta love autoattack in a situation like that. I almost threw the computer I was so angry. Needless to say, I was pretty much done after that.

Mysty · Post by **Mysty** » Thu Apr 26, 2007 6:05 am

ow... you're probably right... the bad dice are remembered more than the good dice... so in the long run it might all even out without me knowing (like 400 games from now

)

but i'm pretty sure i never had the luck to say that i took out a massive army (say 100vs100) and have half of my army left... but luckily doesn't occur much when i'm the defender either

banana_hammocks · Post by **banana_hammocks** » Thu Apr 26, 2007 7:47 am

I won a 3v10 without losing a single troop. To finish off a player.

trestain · Post by **trestain** » Thu Apr 26, 2007 7:50 am

I attacked a 41 - 41 once and had 39 men left over

Mysty · Post by **Mysty** » Thu Apr 26, 2007 10:40 am

i like those odds trestain

Just recently had a 96 vs 41 and had 41 left... so not much luck again (though just slightly in favour of the defender... kicked his butt anywayz so not complaining

)

mpmrunner · Post by **mpmrunner** » Thu Apr 26, 2007 3:03 pm

I don't believe in luck.
Only skill and speed.
but praying to the dice gods never hurt anyone.

Shadic · Post by **Shadic** » Thu Apr 26, 2007 7:15 pm

I've killed 10 when I was attacking and didn't lose once.. That was nice.

I've broken 11 with 8 before, and had 4 guys left over.

I've also lost 27 guys trying to kill a 5, hit auto attack and say myself with 3...

younghemingway · Post by **younghemingway** » Sat Apr 28, 2007 7:23 pm

Was playing the RISK board game the other night and the attacker rolled 3 sixes and the defender rolled 2 sixes.

What are the odds of rolling all sixes on 5 dice ?

tahitiwahini · Post by **tahitiwahini** » Sat Apr 28, 2007 7:37 pm

younghemingway wrote:Was playing the RISK board game the other night and the attacker rolled 3 sixes and the defender rolled 2 sixes.

What are the odds of rolling all sixes on 5 dice ?

Math.pow(1/6,5)*100 = 0.012860% or better than once every 10,000 rolls.

Scorba · Post by **Scorba** » Sat Apr 28, 2007 8:06 pm

1 in 7776 to be precise.

ijnmusashi · Post by **ijnmusashi** » Sun Apr 29, 2007 12:57 pm

down to 2 territories turned in a set eliminated 1 player turned in 2 sets and eliminated the other player.
2007-04-29 17:37:21 - ijnmusashi receives 3 armies for 2 territories
2007-04-29 17:37:24 - ijnmusashi cashed in a set of Ko Kong, Cao Bang, and Phongsali worth 15 armies
2007-04-29 17:37:39 - ijnmusashi deployed 18 armies on Hanoi
2007-04-29 17:37:43 - ijnmusashi attacked Lao Cai from Hanoi and conquered it from redspear
2007-04-29 17:37:53 - ijnmusashi attacked Dien Bien Phu from Lao Cai and conquered it from redspear
2007-04-29 17:37:59 - ijnmusashi attacked Son La from Dien Bien Phu and conquered it from redspear
2007-04-29 17:38:08 - ijnmusashi attacked Hua Phan from Son La and conquered it from redspear
2007-04-29 17:38:16 - ijnmusashi attacked Ha Tinh from Hua Phan and conquered it from redspear
2007-04-29 17:38:26 - ijnmusashi attacked Thanh Hoa from Ha Tinh and conquered it from redspear
2007-04-29 17:38:34 - ijnmusashi attacked Dong Hoi from Ha Tinh and conquered it from redspear
2007-04-29 17:38:34 - ijnmusashi eliminated redspear from the game
2007-04-29 17:38:34 - redspear loses 22 points
2007-04-29 17:38:34 - ijnmusashi gains 22 points
2007-04-29 17:38:45 - ijnmusashi cashed in a set of Salavan, Da Lat, and Mondulkiri worth 20 armies
2007-04-29 17:38:49 - ijnmusashi cashed in a set of Kompong Thom, Hue, and Vientiane worth 25 armies
2007-04-29 17:39:05 - ijnmusashi deployed 25 armies on Dien Bien Phu
2007-04-29 17:39:16 - ijnmusashi deployed 20 armies on Dong Hoi
2007-04-29 17:39:24 - ijnmusashi attacked Phongsali from Dien Bien Phu and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:39:34 - ijnmusashi attacked Sainyabuli from Phongsali and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:39:41 - ijnmusashi attacked Vientiane from Sainyabuli and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:39:49 - ijnmusashi attacked Saisombun from Vientiane and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:39:56 - ijnmusashi attacked Bolikhamxai from Saisombun and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:40:03 - ijnmusashi attacked Khammuan from Bolikhamxai and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:40:11 - ijnmusashi attacked Salavan from Khammuan and conquered it from neutral player
2007-04-29 17:40:19 - ijnmusashi attacked Sekong from Salavan and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:40:28 - ijnmusashi attacked Stung Treng from Sekong and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:40:34 - ijnmusashi attacked Battambang from Stung Treng and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:40:42 - ijnmusashi attacked Ko Kong from Battambang and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:40:51 - ijnmusashi attacked Phnom Penh from Ko Kong and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:40:59 - ijnmusashi attacked Kompong Thom from Phnom Penh and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:41:10 - ijnmusashi attacked Mondulkiri from Kompong Thom and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:41:16 - ijnmusashi attacked Hue from Dong Hoi and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:41:24 - ijnmusashi attacked Qui Nhon from Hue and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:41:30 - ijnmusashi attacked Pleiku from Qui Nhon and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:41:34 - ijnmusashi attacked Da Lat from Pleiku and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:41:40 - ijnmusashi attacked Phan Thiet from Da Lat and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:41:45 - ijnmusashi attacked Saigon from Phan Thiet and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:41:49 - ijnmusashi attacked Ca Mau from Saigon and conquered it from Wames
2007-04-29 17:41:49 - ijnmusashi eliminated Wames from the game
2007-04-29 17:41:49 - Wames loses 21 points
2007-04-29 17:41:49 - ijnmusashi gains 21 points
2007-04-29 17:41:49 - ijnmusashi won the game

Best Luck Ever

Re: Auto

hi